MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Monday (8/5)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Aaron Nola, Andrew Heaney, and Ky Bush? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and today – Monday, August 5, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Monday! Major League Baseball has a 9-game slate on tap to begin the new week, including an exciting matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in Hollywood. There are plenty of big names on the bump tonight, including Zac Gallen, Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, and Tyler Glasnow, which means plenty of exciting betting opportunities for the community.
Since the beginning of last year, we are 135-71 (66.0%) +30.22u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop including batter props in this article during that time period is +45.36u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Monday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Aaron Nola Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Andrew Heaney Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Ky Bush Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120), BetMGM
It might be hard to believe on the surface, but the Dodgers have been struggling mightily to make contact against right-handed pitching lately. Los Angeles has the 2nd-highest strikeout rate against RHP across the last month and the highest strikeout rate against RHP across the last two weeks. The underlying metrics support this downward trend, with the Dodgers ranking last in contact percentage on swings at pitches out of the zone and last in contact percentage on pitches in the zone. Adding insult to injury, the Dodgers have taken more called strikes than all but two teams in baseball across the last 14 days. Nola has good value here as long as we get a semi-favorable umpire assignment.
Andrew Heaney OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100), BetMGM
Andrew Heaney has fallen short of this market number in each of his last three turns through the rotation, but he could get back to 5 strikeouts tonight. In recent weeks, Houston has struck out 7 times against Hogan Harris, 5 times against Trevor Rogers, 5 times against Yusei Kikuchi, 7 times against Jose Quintana, 4 times against Austin Gomber, and 8 times against Garrett Crochet. We don’t have an official lineup from the Astros yet, but this is a team that has been trending in the wrong direction in terms of strikeouts. The pitcher-friendly Will Little calling balls and strikes could help us out here as well.
Ky Bush OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-122), FanDuel
Ky Bush is certainly not a prolific strikeout pitcher, but this play is more about the number than anything else. Ky Bush faced 26 batters in his most recent start at Triple-A, so he’s plenty stretched out ahead of his MLB debut. Even if we only project him for 22 batters faced, he would need only an 18% strikeout rate tonight to get to 4 strikeouts. Oakland ranks 20th in strikeout rate against southpaws during the last month of action. Bush should be competitive at this number on Monday evening.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 8-2
Outs Recorded: 2-3
Earned Runs Allowed: 2-0
Hits Allowed: 1-0
Walks Allowed: 1-1
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-13-2
Combined Record: 35-29-2 (55.7%)
Image Credit: Getty Images