MLB Player Props Today: Suarez, Skubal, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (September 4)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Andrew Heaney, Merrill Kelly, and Alec Bohm? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, September 4, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Labor Day! Major League Baseball has 11 games on tap to celebrate the holiday. One of the more exciting matchups this afternoon features two Cy Young hopefuls in the National League – Logan Webb and Justin Steele. Four of today’s contests begin at 6:10 p.m. EST or later, giving the betting community plenty of time to find something to their liking on Monday.
Across the last month and change, we are 79-51-3 (61.3%) in this article. Since May 1, we are 174-132-10 on non-Home Run props and 2-6 on Home Run recommendations. We are now 105-55-5 (66.0%) on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for September 4!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Andrew Heaney u4.5 Strikeouts
- Merrill Kelly o17.5 Outs Recorded
- Alec Bohm Less Than 0.5 Strikeouts
Andrew Heaney u4.5 Strikeouts (+108), FanDuel
Since August 6, only three of 10 left-handed starting pitchers have managed to hit the over on their strikeout prop against the Houston Astros. During that time period, the Astros have struck out at the 7th-lowest rate of any team in Major League Baseball against southpaws. Even more impressive, the Astros have faced talented arms such as Carlos Rodon, Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, James Paxton, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Reid Detmers in that span. Andrew Heaney is certainly less talented than the majority of pitchers aforementioned. The under has good value here at plus money.
Merrill Kelly o17.5 Outs Recorded (-190), BetMGM
Merrill Kelly has quietly put together a strong season, with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.93 FIP in 24 starts. Across his last 22 starts, since he has been fully stretched out, Kelly has eclipsed this market number 16 times. This afternoon, he gets a favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies, which rank 29th in OPS and 26th in ISO on the road against right-handed pitching since the beginning of August. Kelly should have little trouble navigating this lineup efficiently to complete at least six innings of work.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Alec Bohm Less Than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Monday, Alec Bohm has struck out in only 15.6% of his plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year. On the season, Bohm ranks in the 88th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout percentage among qualified hitters. This evening, Bohm will face Rich Hill, who has struck out only 19.2% of right-handed batters he has faced in 2023. This is a worthwhile look to start the week.
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MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 115-109-5
Stolen Base: 0-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 34-20
Strikeout: 67-33-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4