MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, April 14
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, April 14
- Zack Wheeler MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Randy Arozarena MORE Than 5.5 Fantasy Points and 0.5 Total Bases
- Fernando Tatis MORE Than 7.5 Fantasy Points
- Mike Soroka LESS Than 4.5 Strikeouts
- Matt Wallner MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases
Zack Wheeler MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher on the slate in real life and gets to face a Pirates team with almost the lowest implied total on the day- 3.7 to the Cubs’ 3.6. Wheeler has the strikeout stuff with excellent control and some of the best stamina in the game to go into the seventh inning today. His 22.1% K-BB rate is the best on the slate, and the Pirates’ projected lineup has a 25.3% K rate against righties, so his pitch count shouldn’t get in his way. And we’re talking about a pitch count that’s projected at 96.
Randy Arozarena MORE Than 5.5 Fantasy Points and 0.5 Total Bases
Blake Snell is a great strikeout pitcher, but he’s had a whopping 4.97 BB/9. Randy Arozarena is in a great spot to get on base on or twice, with a great lineup spot to get driven in or drive in runs. We don’t love targeting Snell, but we have Arozarena projected for 8.2 fantasy points. This disparity is the greatest on the board.
Arozarena strikes out at a high rate, but he also has had a 13.1% BB rate against lefties to go with a 13.2% barrel rate. Any time a power hitter is facing a pitcher with control issues, there’s the high opportunity to get the pitcher to force a hittable strike to avoid the walk. This is less likely with Snell, who is happy to just walk a guy before giving up a bomb, but the chance is significant nonetheless.
If the fantasy points projection is too much, the 0.5 total bases projection that PrizePicks offers is juicy as well.
Fernando Tatis MORE Than 7.5 Fantasy Points
This is not the best spot in the world for Fernando Tatis, but we have him projected for 10.3 fantasy points, a 37.3% bump over his PrizePicks projection. James Paxton is a fine pitcher, but he still gives up a lot of power (1.60 HR/9 on an 8.5% barrel rate) and Tatis has had a 13% barrel rate against lefties. His 1.5 hits+runs+RBI is another juicy projection to attack, as we have him projected for 2.4.
Mike Soroka LESS Than 4.5 Strikeouts
I’m taking White Sox pitchers for LESS than 4.5 strikeouts every day Garrett Crochet isn’t pitching, I think. They’re all bad and get shelled too hard to get deep into games. Add that Mike Soroka has had an anemic 6.70 K/9 to the Reds’ 5.2 implied total, and we see this as one of those spots. In other words, Soroka needs at least five innings to get to five strikeouts, and that’s extremely generous. We shouldn’t project him to get through even five innings, let alone six. We should project him to get shelled early and often.
Matt Wallner MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases
I would take Matt Wallner to hit a homer with a DEMON boost, but he isn’t on that board. Wallner faces Jack Flaherty, who really struggles to keep people off the base paths. He is carrying a 7.5% K-BB rate against lefties and surrendering a .379 wOBA. Wallner has quietly built up a 20% barrel rate against righties, so we should want him in any lower-strikeout/high-walk scenario to get a hit. All he needs to do it get one single hit with his team-leading barrel rate and 69.1% hard-hit rate.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
This is a great slate without too many soft projections, but there are a few like these that we can hammer often. Good luck today!
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