MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Wednesday, April 24th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our Fantasy Pick’em tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Wednesday, April 24
- Blake Snell LESS Than 36.5 Fantasy Points and MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
- Reynaldo Lopez MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Joe Ryan MORE Than 7.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Juan Soto MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Jose Altuve MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Blake Snell LESS Than 36.5 Fantasy Points
Blake Snell MORE Than 2.5 Walks Allowed (DEMON)
Blake Snell has a 4.88 BB/9 as it is, dating back to the start of 2023, but 2024 has been dreadful. The thing with Snell is that his lack of command isn’t always also a power-prevention problem. This season, the walks are down a tick, but the strikeout rate is also down to 20.7% from 31.4% in 2023, and the HR/9 is up to 1.54, signaling that he’s trying to throw more strikes and could be forcing meatballs. This Mets team isn’t great and doesn’t walk a lot, but they’re pesky. The projected lineup only has a 20.4% K rate against LHP. For a pitcher so K-dependent, compiling fantasy points will be really rough in under 6 innings. And Snell’s lack of command makes it really difficult to get 6 innings, even when he’s good.
We have Snell projected for 31.7 fantasy points and 2.9 walks. After the LESS than 4.5 strikeouts for Jake Irvin, our Fantasy Pick’em Tool has Snell’s LESS than fantasy score as the best play on the board, with a ~68% win rate and a near-8% edge. Not a good spot for Snell to go deep, and compiling against the Mets requires volume.
Reynaldo Lopez MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
We can double-bag it and play the MORE than 5.0 strikeouts for Reynaldo Lopez, but the better play is his DEMON boost of MORE than 6.5 strikeouts, as he is projected by us for 6.2 strikeouts against a really bad Marlins lineup. They don’t strike out much, but Lopez’ 10.82 K/9 should play well here with good volume, as he’s pitched 6 innings in all 3 of his starts this season. He even struck out 7 Astros in his last start, telling us that the strikeouts are very much baked in.
Joe Ryan MORE Than 7.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
Speaking of baked-in strikeouts, Joe Ryan has an 11.08 K/9 (11.91 this season) with only a 1.81 BB/9 for an elite 24.8% K-BB rate. The White Sox projected lineup only has a 19.9% strikeout rate against RHP, but we shouldn’t care, as Ryan’s power and control give him a CGSO ceiling. It’s a great spot for him to go 6 innings for the shot at breaking our 6.9 projection to get us past the DEMON boost. If 7.5 is a bit much for the high-contact matchup, his standard PrizePicks projection (6.5) is great value. We can correlate this DEMON play with a MORE than 18.5 outs DEMON play, assuming that he will need to get into the 7th inning to get to 8 strikeouts. But we should attack the White Sox because they’re sitting with an implied total of only 2.7. Woof!
Juan Soto MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Against a pitcher with no command, it’s tough to love Juan Soto hitting 2nd without bodies to clog the basepaths ahead of him, due to his 18.1% BB rate against RHP. But with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo hitting behind him, the lineup protection could force Joe Boyle to force hittable strikes when behind in the counts against Soto. And he will be behind in counts. Boyle has a 4.41 BB/9, and this season, he only has a 51.9% first-strike rate. Soto has immense power and the short porch in right field to take advantage of this and get a couple of bases. We have Soto projected for 2.2 total bases, which is 46.7% above the PrizePicks projection.
Stanton’s DEMON boost is also sitting at 1.5. If Soto’s ability and willingness to take walks bothers you, Stanton should come up with men on base to force Boyle to throw hittable strikes.
Jose Altuve MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
The wind will be blowing in at 9 MPH at Wrigley, which could make it more of a pitchers park than a neutral park, but Jose Altuve should be unaffected. Jameson Taillon has allowed an 80.1% contact rate, which plays right into Altuve’s hands. Altuve’s 24.8% line-drive rate is a driving force behind his .428 wOBA and .240 ISO against RHP. Taillon is about a league-average pitcher, and it takes great pitching to hold Altuve under 2 total bases. He’s currently projected by us for 2.3 total bases, which is 53.3% over his PrizePicks projection.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
With hitters, you can tell that I want the DEMON boost because the variance is so high with MLB hitting. It’s that extra juice that makes up for the low win rates of these plays. When the DEMON boost is about a total base too low, we should pounce on those opportunities to sprinkle boosters around our contests. This is a great day for a high volume of contests with 3 or 4 plays stacked with DEMON boosters.
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