MLB Wild Card Betting Picks: Brewers at Nationals
The Brewers needed nearly all 162 games to build a resume worthy of the MLB Postseason. Their reward? A road matchup with Max Scherzer against the Nationals. The Nats are considerable favorites as they play host to the Brewers on Tuesday night. Here is a sports betting preview and MLB betting picks for tonight’s National League Wild Card game.
MLB Wild Card Betting Picks — Brewers vs. Nationals
Brewers (+152) vs. Nationals (-172), O/U 7.5 Runs
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Pitching Primer
The away team will employ an all-hands-on-deck approach in tonight’s Wild Card tilt. Brandon Woodruff will open and likely get through 2-3 innings after only making two appearances in September upon his IL return. Woodruff was sharp in both two-inning appearances — racking up seven strikeouts in four innings while only ceding a single baserunner. Woodruff will likely give way to fellow starter Jordan Lyles but the Brewers will possess a short leash for all options tonight in a must-win game.
The Brewers bullpen ranked second in the National League in xFIP (4.16), first in K% (26.6%), and third in K-BB% (16.6%) throughout the 2019 season. Without star Christian Yelich, the only hope for the Brewers is likely a close game that the bullpen can dominate.
The Nationals were a bit more decisive — opting to start their ace, Max Scherzer, in the all-important Wild Card clash. Scherzer does not require much adieu but a brief look at his numbers since returning from the IL is worthwhile. Since returning on August 22nd, Scherzer made seven starts — pitching to a 4.74 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 38 innings. The surface stats might concern fans but let’s peel back the curtain a bit. Scherzer ceded eight home runs with a 20.5 HR/FB%. Max will always challenge hitters but that number is lofty even for him. His xFIP rested at 3.05 — indicating that he is pitching way better than his results would indicate. Of course, this is not shocking.
Teammates Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg — also available if necessary — might be pitching better than Scherzer as of late. That said, there is not a more fierce competitor in the entire MLB than Max Scherzer. The choice was easy.
The Bats
The Brewers will be without Christian Yelich on Tuesday night after the likely MVP fractured his knee cap late in the season. The remaining Brewers bring power but also a penchant to strike out. Facing a pitcher with a 35.1 K% will not mitigate this issue. The Brewers are also coming off a very disappointing series in Coors Field where a couple of wins could have earned a division title. Instead, the Brewers were swept while only scoring 12 runs against dismal pitching. Moving out of Denver and into Washington with Max Scherzer at the gates is not a boost to the offense.
Milwaukee’s current projected lineup on RotoGrinders carries a .204 ISO with Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, and Keston Hiura all north of .200 individually. Scherzer can be had by way of the home run as he finished 2019 with a 40.0 FB% to lefties and a .190 ISO against that side.
Opposite the Brewers will be a Nationals lineup that rattled off eight straight wins to finish the season. The Nationals fended off other Wild Card hopefuls with a strong September which feaured a team 104 wRC+, .802 OPS, and .190 ISO. The Nationals are healthy and clicking at the perfect time with Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Juan Soto all poised to lead the offense on a playoff run. This iteration of their lineup possesses a very respectable 19.9 K% and 10.2 BB%. Couple that with a team .202 ISO and you are in business.
The MLB Wild Card Pick — Nationals (-176)
Given all of the aforementioned information, I cannot justify taking going near the Brewers side. I am certainly fond of the Milwaukee area and enjoyed my trip there to watch a Packers game but… my heart is not big enough to wipe away everything in front of me. Max Scherzer is just about the worst matchup the Brewers could draw coming off of a brutal series in Colorado where the lineup was very ineffective. The strikeout issues should be an issue and Scherzer should mow down this lineup. Backed by other aces, the Nationals pitching should overwhelm the visiting Brewers.
NL Wild Card Pick: Nationals -176 on FanDuel Sportsbook (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)
MLB Wild Card Betting Picks – Props
Here are a few additional bets from the game I’m interested in investing in on a smaller scale.
Max Scherzer Over 9.5 Strikeouts +104
Eric Thames +310 to Hit a Home Run
Washington Nationals 1st Half Run Line -0.5 -110
Team to Score First – Washington Nationals -104