MLB World Series Game 3 Odds and Betting Picks: Astros vs. Nationals

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The Washington Nationals are — to the surprise of many — two wins away from their first World Series victory. After a big Game 1 victory, the Nats thumped the Astros 12 – 3 in Game 2 behind big nights from Asdrubal Cabrera and Adam Eaton. Off to a two-game lead, Washington heads home with Anibal Sanchez on the hill versus Zack Greinke. Here is a quick breakdown and betting picks for Game 3 of the World Series.

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World Series Game 3 Odds and Betting Picks — Astros at Nationals

Raise your hand if you anticipated the Houston Astros would lose two games at home behind Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. Put your hand down. You are lying. The Nationals left Houston two victories away from their first World Series victory — having defeated the two best arms the Astros had to offer.

With the World Series shifting to Washington, the Nationals find themselves in a phenomenal spot as massive -275 favorites to win a championship — on DraftKings Sportsbook. Given the big advantage that comes with being up two games to nothing, the Nationals can be more flexible with their pitching staff. Instead of resorting to an all-hands-on-deck approach, Washington will elect to start Anibal Sanchez in Game 3 and leave Patrick Corbin for Game 4 of the series.

Sanchez last pitched in Game 1 of the NLCS in a dominant performance against the Cardinals. Sanchez yielded only two baserunners in 7 and 2/3 innings, striking out five batters and holding St. Louis scoreless. Sanchez will not overpower the Astros by any stretch but will provide length and can withstand long layoffs between innings. In short, Sanchez is a reliable arm and allows the Nationals to conserve Corbin and the bullpen, while positioning aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg for likely important games down the stretch.

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The Astros will counter with Zack Greinke — hoping their trade deadline acquisition can bounce back from a pretty disappointing run of starts since the ALCS. Greinke pitched a total of 10 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees — allowing 14 baserunners, a couple of home runs, and four earned runs. While Greinke was not terrible, he did not rise to the occasion either. In his previous start, Greinke could not make it out of the fifth against the Yankees and despite an 8-3 Astros victory, the bullpen was used heavily in the contest. If the Astros are going to overcome being a +215 underdog to win the World Series (DraftKings), Greinke will need to turn in his best performance of the playoffs.

Greinke will face a tough test on the road. The Nationals scored five runs against Gerrit Cole and four runs against Justin Verlander. The bats are hot with the prodigious Juan Soto leading the charge. Soto did a number on Gerrit Cole — homering and doubling against the ace with three RBI. Soto went 1-3 in Game 2 with two runs. Probably the early favorite to win the World Series MVP, Soto could give Greinke fits in Game 3.

The Astros will look to take advantage of a more winnable pitching matchup and make up for a relatively weak performance at the plate over the first two games of the series. Alex Bregman is 1 for 8 in the World Series with the one hit being a home run in Game 2. Carlos Correa is 1 for 9. The Astros’ stars will need to put something together to regain momentum in the series.

World Series Game 3 Betting Picks — Astros at Nationals

World Series Game 3 Pick — Over 8 Runs (-107) (DraftKings Sportsbook)

With the pitching matchup a bit softer in Game 3, the bats should come alive. While Anibal Sanchez has been spectacular, he has not faced an offense as equipped as the Houston Astros along the way. Zack Greinke has looked very much like the third pitcher in a playoff rotation and will face a hot-hitting, home offense. I expect runs. At -107 on DraftKings Sportsbook, I want to jump on this over before the public has a chance to change these odds. Give me Over 8 Runs at -107..

World Series Game 3 Betting Picks — Player Props

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Monkey Knife Fight Player Props

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After talking through my over pick on the eight-run total, a player prop involving both pitchers feels appropriate. To 3x my buy-in on Monkey Knife Fight, I would need to select both picks correct for the strikeout totals on both pitchers. I think this game is going to be very offensive, so I will take the under for both starting pitchers. Monkey Knife Fight offers a bevy of other prop choices; pick your favorite groups using the aforementioned promo code for the site.

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For more general betting tips check out our MLB Picks Strategy Guide.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro