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NBA Correlation Stacking: Friday, March 18th

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2016-03-19 02:35:07

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Welcome to the NBA Correlation Stacking series, which will shed insight on stacking strategies in large field tournaments. While stacking isn’t usually a recommended strategy in cash games, it’s a high risk/high reward play that has massive upside in GPPs; if the team or game you stack stays competitive, you’re likely to reap the benefits.

I’ll not only be breaking down potential stacks of individual teams, but will also note players on the opposite bench that fit into a full fledged game stack. It’s rare that I’ll stack more than two players from a particular team without also rostering one of their opponents. Also, it’s worth noting that since this article is written on Friday’s where there are typically 8-10 games, I won’t usually recommend stacking more than 2-3 players on the same team. Stacking 3+ players from the same team is typically a better strategy on small slates. Instead of breaking down every game on tonight’s slate, I’ll hand pick the top handful of match-ups to touch on.

Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Kings

Sacramento is ailing a bit with Rajon Rondo (questionable), Omri Casspi (questionable) and Marco Belinelli (probable) all on the injury report, but fortunately the Kings production comes from a small group of players. The downside here is that this is a pace down game for the Kings and the Pistons are actually a fairly good defensive team across the board. DeMarcus Cousins is the top overall option at the center spot, although he’ll certainly end up behind Bismack Biyombo in terms of ownership and may also play second fiddle to Karl-Anthony Towns. Cousins does tend to perform best when he’s on the floor with Rondo, although Collison running the point wouldn’t be enough to get me to pivot off of DMC. When Cousins and Collison are on the floor without Rondo, DMC owns a 37.5% usage rate (Collison sits at 19.2, Rudy Gay at 20.5) and he and Collison actually mesh very well together. With Rondo off the floor, 38.5% of Collison’s assists on 2PT makes have went to Cousins (Gay and Belinelli are tied for 2nd at 15.4%) and 33% of Collison’s assists on 3PT makes head in DMC’s direction (Gay is 2nd at 23.8%). In a more surprising development, the majority of Cousins’ assists (with Rondo off the floor) go to Darren Collison (30% of his 2PT assists and 36.4% of his 3PT assists). These two correlate very well tonight and make for an excellent pairing in GPPs. Even if Rondo does play tonight, Collison is still in a very good spot due to his minutes increase and pairing him with Cousins would remain a viable option.

Top Stack (without Rondo): DeMarcus Cousins and Darren Collison

Contrarian Stacks: DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay, Darren Collison and Rudy Gay

Pistons

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The entire Detroit starting five is in play tonight, but there are a few plays that stand above the rest. I’ll probably have more exposure to Tobias Harris than any other Piston, but Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris are all fine plays in any format. Reggie Jackson was dealing with shortness of breath after Detroit’s game with the Hawks on Wednesday, but it appears that he’ll be able to play tonight. While he’s not a “core” play for me, he’s a nice tournament gamble that should come at a relatively low ownership percentage. Andre Drummond is in a strange spot tonight; he correlates fairly well with most of the Pistons starters (he doesn’t have much competition for boards), but he’s underwhelmed in his last handful of games against Cousins and foul trouble is a major concern here. My favorite pairing here is Tobias Harris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – the Kings rank 29th against SGs (the Kings struggles with SGs are well documented) and 30th against PFs. Both players regularly see minutes in the mid-to-high 30s and they don’t eat too heavily into each other’s scoring loads. KCP racks up 61% of his FPs via points with 19% coming on rebounds and 13% through steals; Harris comes in at 53% points and 30% rebounds.

Top Stack: Tobias Harris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Contrarian Stack: Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond

Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Blazers

There are three viable options on the Portland side tonight – Damian Lillard, Mason Plumlee and C.J. McCollum. Lillard is far and away the top option here and it makes the most sense to stack him up with Anthony Davis and hope for a shootout. Pairing him with Mason Plumlee is viable tonight given Meyers Leonard injury, which will likely lead to Plumlee seeing around 28-30 minutes of court time tonight. Lillard and Plumlee rack up FPs in very different ways, so the correlation between them seems to work well. Plumlee makes more sense on a site like DraftKings that allows you to roster two centers, but he’s also a decent against-the-grain target on FanDuel. C.J. McCollum is more of a contrarian option that doesn’t typically work well with Lillard unless the game turns into a major barn-burner.

Top Stack: Damian Lillard with Anthony Davis

Top Stack #2: Damian Lillard with Mason Plumlee

Pelicans

The Pelicans have become a tougher team to stack with Jrue Holiday minutes being held around 28-30 over the past few contests, but some of that had to do with lopsided scores against the Warriors and Kings. Anthony Davis has been rolling lately and he’ll take on a Blazers defense that doesn’t defend the PF spot particularly well (they rank 18th against PFs this season). He’s attempted at least 20 shots in six of the past seven games and has double-digit boards in his past eight games, so the ceiling is sky high here. Jrue Holiday price has dropped off over the past few days and he’s now more of a contrarian option which is surprising given the lack of depth in the Pelicans back-court. Toney Douglas and Tim Frazier are also in play here, but they are GPP-only candidates that carry very low floors. Frazier performed very well in his New Orleans debut, but don’t expect another uber-efficient stat line. My most common course of action will be to pair Lillard and Davis up together, but there is definitely merit to pairing Davis with either Holiday, Douglas or Frazier.

Top Stack: Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday with Damian Lillard

Contarian Stack: Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard with either Toney Douglas or Tim Frazier

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Wolves

If this game stays competitive, it’ll be the best game of the night to target. Much like the Pistons, the entire Timberwolves starting five is in play tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns, Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine stand out for me while Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng are fine options to mix in around them. Towns and Rubio correlate extremely well; almost 40% of Rubio’s assists on 2PT makes go to Towns, and the two conceive their fantasy success in very different ways. The majority of Rubio’s production comes via assists (43%) while almost all of Towns’ production comes through points and rebounds. Both players see huge minutes in close games, so the upside here is massive. It’s rare that I’ll stack more than two players from the same team on an 8-game slate, but I’ll make an exception tonight for the Wolves. Adding Zach LaVine or Andrew Wiggins to the Rubio/Towns stack will be my most common course of action. Wiggins should be tasked with defending James Harden which does make him a riskier DFS target.

Top Stack: Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns (with James Harden for full game exposure)

Top Stack #2: Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine (with Harden)

Top Stack #3: Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins (with Harden)

Rockets

The Rockets remain a straightforward team to stack; the large majority of their offensive production comes from James Harden and Dwight Howard. They’ve been preaching for weeks that Howard needs to be more involved in the offense, and he’s in a nice bounce-back spot here after putting forth a dismal effort against the Clippers in his last game. His price has dropped to just $7,500 on FanDuel and he almost always seems like a bargain on DraftKings (as do most centers), so the Harden/Howard combo makes a ton of sense tonight. With Harden, Howard, Ariza and Beverley on the floor, 52% of Harden’s assists (on 2PT makes) go to Howard – they like to run the P&R together and Howard tends to finish well near the hoop on Harden’s drives. Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley are also potential options to pair with either Harden or Howard.

Top Stack: James Harden and Dwight Howard (with Towns, Rubio or LaVine for full game exposure)

Top Stack #2: James Harden and Trevor Ariza (with Towns, Rubio or LaVine)

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Warriors

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This game is very intriguing for a lot of reasons, but the downside here is that both teams aren’t easy to stack. The Warriors are a bit more straightforward since the Steph Curry / Draymond Green pairing has exploded for some massive performances this year, but outside of those two it gets murky pretty quick. Klay Thompson is also a nice play in a game that should be both close and high scoring, but he doesn’t correlate all that well with Curry on a regular basis. Given that the Warriors are usually double-digit favorites when they take the floor, the 9-point spread here gives the starters a good shot to see time late into the fourth quarter. Green has the best individual match-up on the Golden State side, as the Mavs have allowed the 27th most FPPG to PFs. Chandler Parsons will likely be tasked with defending Green which should help the Mavs cause, but big minutes could lead to yet another triple-double for the Michigan State product.

Top Stack: Stephen Curry and Draymond Green

Contrarian Stack: Draymond Green and Klay Thompson

Mavericks

The Mavs have been playing more small-ball of late, shifting Dirk Nowitzki up to center and slotting Raymond Felton into the starting lineup. It’s still unclear if they’ll replicate that here tonight given that they’d have some issues defending the Warriors bigger wing players (Thompson and Barnes). Regardless, the top options on the Dallas side are Chandler Parsons, Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams. Dirk has really turned back the clock during the month of March, but it’s unfortunately led to his price taking off. He’s still in play at his current asking price on both major sites, although he’ll need to do a bit more to make himself a valuable GPP target. Chandler Parsons has been seeing big minutes lately and is seeing time at both the SF and PF spots, and the fact that he’s a very well rounded contributor can lead to some huge stat lines when his shot is dropping. Deron Williams has the best individual match-up on the Dallas side (GS ranks 27th against PGs this year), and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get up for a match-up with Steph Curry. Pairing him and Curry together has some massive upside given Williams’ current asking price. Dirk, Parsons and Williams also all produce in relatively different ways which bodes well for stacking them up together.

Top Stack: Chandler Parsons and Deron Williams

Top Stack #2: Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams

Top Stack #3: Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons

About the Author

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Stephen Keech (SBK)