NBA Daily Grind Down: Wednesday 3/6

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-03-06 19:43:15

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NBA schedule each night. This article will break down the defense vs. position rankings for every single game and give you analysis on where you can exploit these matchups. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy basketball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, minutes, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections.

Wednesday’s are always a big day for fantasy basketball and this one is no different. There are 14 games on the schedule tonight and almost every major fantasy site has a big event going on so make sure to hop in as many as you can. Tonight’s matchups feature some really bad defenses so make sure to check out where you should be spending your salary cap dough tonight.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Utah @ Cleveland – 7:00 pm EST

• The Jazz have struggled to stop two positions all season long, PG and Center. That’s good news for the Cavs because arguably their two best players play those positions in Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson. I like the matchup for Kyrie the most, I think he will be able to run circles around Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley. As for Thompson, he just hasn’t been playing that great lately. If he is cheap enough, maybe think about taking him, but don’t expect a huge game from him.
• As for Cleveland’s defense, they struggle to stop every position except for Center. The Jazz will be without Al Jefferson again tonight and I like all three of the Jazz bigs in this one. Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors will get the start and Enes Kanter will likely come off the bench and play some big minutes again. Value wise, I think it’s safer to play Favors and Kanter.

Boston @ Indiana – 7:00 pm EST

• The Celtics have been struggling defensively over their last ten games and are playing in a back to back. While I think the Celtics will come out a bit flat, I think this game will be a low scoring battle with not too many fantasy options. I do like Paul George though, he has a good matchup against the older Pierce and won’t have to worry about Danny Granger stealing any of his minutes and shots.
• The Pacers defense is one of the better defenses in the league, especially at home. It’s hard to like any of the Celtics today, especially considering the fact that Pierce and KG had to play a full share of minutes last night. If you are going to take a Celtic, I would recommend taking one of the younger guys such as Avery Bradley or Jeff Green.

Brooklyn @ Charlotte – 7:00 pm EST

• Charlotte has been getting crushed by every team that they face lately. Luckily for them, they are finally back home hopefully they can start playing more competitive basketball. Looking at the Nets defense, they are pretty weak against PG’s lately, so Kemba Walker could be a guy that you might want to take a chance on. Also for the Bobcats, keep your eye on Byron Mullens injury status, if he can’t go tonight, it could open up some extra minutes for both Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Adrien.
• As far as the Bobcats go, their defense is just bad all around, but somehow they have managed to be the best team against PG’s over the last 10 games. I’m not sure if that is a fluke or if Kemba Walker has picked up his defense. My guess is that it’s because they have been getting blown out so bad that the PG’s they are facing don’t have to play much. Ignore the ranking and target Deron Williams and Brook Lopez tonight, they both should have solid games.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta – 7:30 pm EST

• The rankings say that you should target PG’s and Centers against Philly. This would normally be good except for the fact that Jeff Teague and Al Horford have been playing so well that their salaries are to a point where they are almost unplayable. If you can get them for a decent price, they should play well, but don’t overspend on them just because the matchup is good. I could see Atlanta getting a big lead and never looking back as the Sixers played last night.
• Atlanta has a fairly average defense. They aren’t great against any one position and only have one green ranking which is against PG’s. Jrue Holiday is a decent play, however he doesn’t have great numbers against the Hawks. I would recommend taking advantage of the injury to Nick Young and taking a flier on either Dorell Wright or Royal Ivey, they have both been filling in nicely.

New York @ Detroit – 7:30 pm EST

• The Knicks have a pretty solid defense except for one round glaring weakness and that’s at PG. Felton just isn’t very good at defense. That being said, Jose Calderon has been so up and down lately that it’s hard to rely on him. Keep your eye on the injuries to Greg Monroe and Charlie Villanueva, they are both questionable and if they can’t go tonight, that will mean big minutes for the other Detroit bigs.
• The Pistons have one good defender in Brandon Knight and the rest of the team doesn’t seem to care about defense as much. It’s hard to say which Knicks you should target tonight because we don’t know if Carmelo trip on his own feet Anthony is going to play or not. If he is out, I highly recommend taking both Raymond Felton and J.R. Smith.

Orlando @ Miami – 7:30 pm EST

• Orlando’s defensive rankings have been very inconsistent so I would trust their last 10 numbers more than their season long rankings. It’s going to be tough to take any of the Heat players tonight though. The line on this game is -16 for the Heat and I’m guessing the Heat will be up by that much before the end of 3 quarters. I would fade Lebron and Wade tonight and maybe take a chance on Chris Bosh just because he is so cheap.
• Last time Orlando played the Heat, Nikola Vucevic went for an insane 20 points and 29 rebounds. While this would normally mean his matchup is good, I don’t think he will produce anywhere near that tonight. The fact is that he is playing and producing much less than he was during that time. I would fade all Magic players tonight, there are so many other options that it won’t hurt.

L.A.Lakers @ New Orleans – 8:00 pm EST

• The Lakers have such bad defense that they forced a record low 2 turnovers last night against the Thunder. Only 2! Their terrible defense opens up some great opportunities for the Hornets tonight. My favorite is Greivis Vasquez who has been playing really well lately. Also, with Jason Smith being out for the season, that means more minutes for both Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson. I’m going to give a slight edge to Ryan Anderson though because he can get hot and should get plenty of open shots against LAL.
• The Hornets struggle against Centers and SF’s and are below average against PG’s. But even with good matchups, you never know what you are going to get out of the Lakers, especially Dwight Howard. Last night he didn’t even attempt a shot in the second half. You have to think he should dominate the Hornets inside, but the Lakers just don’t give him the ball.

Washington @ Minnesota – 8:00 pm EST

• I like this matchup for both teams. It should be a very close game which is usually good for fantasy points. The Wizards haven’t been great at stopping PG’s or PF’s so both Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams could have nice games tonight. I also like Dante Cunningham, he is coming off the bench and getting big minutes and is a great value play depending on his price.
• For the Wizards, their best matchup is for John Wall. While Rubio does get a lot of steals, he doesn’t play great defense and tends to gamble a lot more often than playing solid defense. I think Wall will finally have that big game to break him out of his funk. It looks like the Wizards will be without Bradley Beal so a guy like Trevor Ariza could get some big minutes tonight.

Portland @ Memphis – 8:00 pm EST

• Portland is not the best defensive team and their rankings show that they aren’t very good at defending any position so for the Grizzlies it’s really going to come down to value. Mike Conley should have a solid game if he is affordable. Zach Randolph could be the biggest factor here though, if he is ruled out tonight, then both Ed Davis and Marc Gasol become great fantasy plays.
• Memphis is very strong defensively. They rank in the top 7 against every single position in the season long rankings and with the way the Blazers play on the road, it might be best to stay away from them tonight unless one of them is underpriced.

Houston @ Dallas – 8:30 pm EST

• These two teams played last week and it turned into a blowout. I expect it to be a much closer game this time around. Houston loves to score the basketball and this leaves their opponents with great matchups every night. I expect Dirk Nowitzki to bounce back from his bad game and put up some solid numbers. Also look for O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison to play well. Even Shawn Marion. There are really no bad matchups for the Mavs tonight.
• Dallas really struggles to stop the 2-4 positions and Chandler Parsons absolutely torched them last game. He will likely be overpriced on most sites, so instead of him, target Jeremy Lin, Donatas Motiejunas, and Omer Asik. I think all three of them draw good matchups tonight.

Toronto @ Phoenix – 9:00 pm EST

• The position to target against Toronto is PF, but you really can’t rely on Luis Scola to have a good game regardless of the matchup. The Suns rotation is confusing and messy and outside of Goran Dragic, you never know what each player’s minutes will look like.
• The Suns struggle against all positions with the exception of SG. I like the matchup for both Kyle Lowry and Rudy Gay tonight. Lowry is always a threat for a triple-double and Gay has been topping 30 fantasy points pretty easily.

Chicago @ San Antonio – 9:00 pm EST

• There isn’t much to like about this game. Not only is it the Spurs, but they are playing one of the better defenses in the league. The Spurs PG situation is a mess and you never know how Pop is going to divide those minutes out. The only players I would trust from San Antonio tonight are Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili, but even then you just never know with the Spurs.
• Chicago is still waiting to get Derrick Rose back and tonight they will be without their other PG Kirk Hinrich. Nate Robinson is a cheap option that could pay off, especially considering the fact that he won’t have to go up against Tony Parker. Outside of Robinson, I would fade the rest of the Bulls.

Sacramento @ Golden State – 10:30 pm EST

• I can’t wait to see the final score of this one. Right now, Vegas has the over/under at 223 and I have a feeling that if this one is fairly close, it will hit the over. For the Kings, they played last night but they are a young team so I wouldn’t worry about that too much. Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton are my favorite Kings, they both have great matchups. I also don’t hate DeMarcus Cousins tonight, while he is wildly inconsistent, he has always played well against GS.
• For the Warriors, there are plenty of favorable matchups to go around. The Kings defensive rankings are straight green which means they are in the bottom third of the league in every category. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and David Lee are the 3 guys that I think you can rely on to have big games.

Milwaukee @ L.A.Clippers – 10:30 pm EST

• There are sure a lot of games tonight! The Bucks have been the worst team at defending Centers all season long and while DeAndre Jordan isn’t much of a threat, he could be worth a gamble. Look for Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to both put up some good games as well.
• Don’t look now but Brandon Jennings has 36 assists in his last two games. Has he changed his game? We will find out tonight when he goes up against Chris Paul. I’m not going to trust him just yet, especially considering the Clippers are the number one ranked team against PG’s. There aren’t many matchups to like for the Bucks tonight.