NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks for Today (10/24)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-10-24 14:08:32

Happy NBA season! After a long summer, basketball is finally back. NHL DFS is fun and all, but the past few weeks since baseball’s regular season ended have been relatively calm in the day-to-day DFS streets. I don’t know you, but I’m ready for that daily NBA grind, baby.

As usual, the NBA is tipping off its new season with a modest 2-game slate on Tuesday night. It should be a fun one, though, as 4 Western Conference powerhouses will take the floor. We’ve got no shortage of future Hall-of-Famers between the Lakers, Suns, and Warriors, while the Nuggets will look to defend their first-ever championship.

In this space, I’ll do a deep dive into each of the 4 teams in action on Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate.

NBA DFS Preview for Tuesday, October 24

Los Angeles Lakers

• Pace of Play: 103 (5th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 111.8 (19th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 (13th)

Notable Injuries

• Jarred Vanderbilt (Lakers) – DOUBTFUL

The Lakers made a surprising run to the Western Conference Finals a season ago despite entering the postseason as a play-in team. LA beat Minnesota in the Play-In Tournament before back-to-back series upset wins over the Grizzlies and Warriors. Once they reached the third round, however, they were easily swept away by tonight’s foe, the Nuggets.

With LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting any younger, Rob Pelinka made the no-brainer decision to keep the band together over the summer. Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Rui Hachimura were all re-signed. Mo Bamba, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Troy Brown, and Malik Beasley are gone, while Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes, Christian Wood, and Gabe Vincent came over in free agency. On paper, the Lakers are significantly deeper than they were a year ago at this time.

LA was significantly better defensively after overhauling the roster at the trade deadline, while the offense will always flow through LeBron and AD. James’ post-deadline usage last season still hovered around 33%, while he contributed a robust 1.39 DK FP/min. He’s still not showing many signs of slowing despite now being the oldest player in the NBA. We currently have LeBron projected for 34 minutes in the opener. This team is playing the long game, of course, so it’d be a little silly to run him out there for 40-plus minutes in game 1 of 82.

James is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel, though the looser salary cap and positional requirements make him an easier guy to get to on FD. The opening night slate features superstars everywhere you look. I never feel bad about getting to LeBron, but you can easily argue that Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, and even Davis offer higher ceilings in tournaments.

Darvin Ham said during the offseason that he’d like to see AD average 6 3-point attempts per game this season. He didn’t attempt enough of them to qualify for the leaderboards last year, but he’d have finished dead-last in the league in 3-point percentage if he had (25.7%). If it feels like the Lakers try to talk up AD’s offense before every season, it’s because they do. Davis was more productive per minute than LeBron was last season (1.48), thanks in part to his ability to rack up defensive stats. He’s significantly more affordable on DK ($8,900) than he is on FD ($11,200). That said, I’m still having a hard time making Davis a major priority on a Jokic slate.

The Lakers’ depth is great for their real-life prospects this season, but it complicates matters from a DFS standpoint. Reaves, Prince, and Russell have been announced as the other 3 starters. I’d expect close to a 50/50 minutes split between Prince and Rui Hachimura, while Gabe Vincent should serve as Russell’s primary backup. Whether Christian Wood or Jaxson Hayes plays as the primary backup center remains to be seen, but we currently have Wood projected for a couple more minutes.

D-Lo was the third banana offensively (23% usage) after returning to the team last year, though we saw Reaves take on a much more significant role in the playoffs. Russell has the longer and better track record when it comes to per-minute contribution, and he’s a little cheaper than Reaves around the industry. Reaves may have the safer minutes floor, however, considering we saw Russell get benched in the postseason.

Otherwise, we’re throwing darts with this team. Prince ($3,500 DK, $4,200 FD) is one of my favorite punts on a slate lacking low-end cheapies. His FPPM production last year wasn’t great (0.72), but 24-26 minutes is a reasonable expectation. Hachimura is more on my radar on FD ($4,800) than he is on DK ($5,100), though I’ll call him a secondary value at best, either way.

Denver Nuggets

• Pace of Play: 99.7 (23rd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 115 (4th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.8 (18th)

The Nuggets are fresh off of the first championship in franchise history, and what a run it was. Denver barely had to break a sweat en route to eliminating the T-Wolves, Suns, Lakers, and Heat on their way to the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Nobody beat the Nuggets more than twice in any series in one of the most dominant playoff showings we’ve seen in recent years.

So, we’ll see what they have in store for a title defense in 2023-24. This is still a young core built around Nikola Jokic, though the roster did go through some changes over the summer. Bruce Brown got a bag from the Pacers, while Jeff Green defected to join the rebuilding effort in Houston. Reggie Jackson was re-signed, while Justin Holiday came over to provide some veteran depth in free agency. One of the more noteworthy additions is rookie Julian Strawther, who may well have played his way into a rotation role on the heels of a stellar preseason. Last year’s rookies – Christian Braun and Peyton Watson – may also play bigger roles as incoming sophomores.

Of course, it all starts with Jokic. The matchup against a stout Lakers defense isn’t ideal, but this is the most matchup-proof human in the sport. Jokic averaged an absurd 1.74 FP/min last season, and he’s a walking triple-double on a nightly basis. The former MVP led the Nuggets in usage (26.9%), rebound rate (22.3%), and, most impressively, assist rate (38.3%). Jokic is a scary fade on a 13-game slate, let alone a 2-gamer. $10,000 on DraftKings is likely the cheapest he’ll be all year, while $11,500 on FanDuel is easily affordable, too. He’s the top play on the slate at any position and in any format.

Jamal Murray (26.2%) wasn’t far behind in terms of usage, while Michael Porter Jr. (23.3%) has settled into a nice role as a tertiary scoring option. I may have some reservations about pairing Murray with Jokic in GPP builds on a larger slate, but I’m willing to make an exception on a slate lacking alternatives. As of this writing, I expect Jokic and Murray to be my highest-exposed center and point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. MPJ and Aaron Gordon both historically average right around a fantasy point-per-minute, and both occupy the same price tier as forward options on both sites. They’re essentially the Spider-Man meme, so I don’t have a strong preference for one over the other. In multi-entry tournaments, I’ll likely get similar exposure to both.

Otherwise, we’re looking for salary relief with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800 DK, $5,000 FD) and Julian Strawther ($3,100 DK, $3,600). Strawther isn’t a guarantee to even see the floor, but low-owned value plays are hard to come by on a 2-gamer. Rolling the dice with the rookie for just $100 more than minimum salary on both sites is viable in larger-field contests. KCP is a classic small-slate filler that should top 30 minutes.

Phoenix Suns

• Pace of Play: 100.2 (18th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.1 (17th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (7th)

Notable Injuries

• Bradley Beal (Suns) – DOUBTFUL
• Devin Booker (Suns) – QUESTIONABLE
• Damion Lee (Suns) – OUT

No team underwent a bigger makeover than the Suns did over the summer. After losing in 6 games to Denver in the second round, Phoenix opted to burn the thing to the ground around Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Of the 11 players that saw the floor in their Game 6 loss to the Nuggets, Booker, Durant, and Damion Lee are the only ones that remain. Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Jock Landale, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, and Bismack Biyombo are on the laundry list of ex-Suns. Phoenix even canned Monty Williams and replaced him with Frank Vogel, so just about everything about this team is new entering the season.

The biggest addition, of course, was Bradley Beal. Phoenix came out of nowhere to acquire the longtime Wizard in a summer blockbuster, and he should fit in seamlessly with his new team. The Suns finished just 17th in offensive rating last year, but they may well lead the league this season if they stay relatively healthy. Phoenix now boasts 3 all-world scorers, and it’ll be fascinating to see how the usage shakes out. Beal figures to do a lot more spot-up shooting now than he did as the ball-dominant top dog in Washington. Expect the Suns to run him off of countless screens as an incredibly potent No. 3 option. Durant and Booker, meanwhile, both posted usage rates of around 28% when they shared the floor across 18 regular-season and playoff games last year.

Early Tuesday morning, we got word that Beal is not expected to play tonight as a result of his back injury. Devin Booker, meanwhile, is listed questionable with a toe issue. Eric Gordon would seem to be the player that gets the biggest boost without Beal, though we can expect elevated usage for both Booker and Durant, too. If Booker also happens to take the night off, KD becomes a much more alluring spend, while Josh Okogie could see a bump in minutes.

3 high-usage wings playing together means they’ll naturally eat into each other’s fantasy upside a bit. This is comparable to Durant’s previous situation in Brooklyn when he (briefly) shared the floor with Kyrie Irving and James Harden. All 3 of these guys are fully capable of taking over a game and putting up a slate-winning score, but those nights will be fewer and further between now. Beal’s FanDuel salary is comparable to what it was during his Washington days ($8,400), but he looks underpriced on DraftKings ($6,900) despite the uncertainty. Interestingly enough, Booker was more dynamic per minute (1.33) than KD was (1.23) when they played together last season, albeit in a small sample. The midrange value at the forward spots looks better than it does at guard on this slate, which will tip the scales in Booker’s favor for me on opening night.

So, what else is new? The Suns decided to import the Blazers’ old center rotation, for one thing. Jusuf Nurkic is the new starting 5, while Drew Eubanks should play a backup role. Nurk’s another guy who figures to see decreased usage with his new team, but he was still very effective a season ago (1.21 FP/min). The midrange is downright barren when it comes to centers tonight, so I’ll gladly plop down the $6,300 necessary to plug him in on DraftKings. In lineups in which I’m not paying all the way up for Jokic on FanDuel, $7,500 for Nurk is a bit more appealing than plunging $11,200 into AD.

Eric Gordon is here now. Jordan Goodwin, Grayson Allen, Keita Bates-Diop, and Yuta Watanabe are among the worker bees Phoenix added for bench depth. Josh Okogie is one of the few holdovers that should have a spot in the rotation, as well. Gordon ($4,300 DK, $4,000) is the only Phoenix reserve on my radar for single-entry and/or smaller-field contests, as he should still retain some usage as the team’s primary scoring option off the bench. Okogie was impressive enough in limited duty last season to be worth a look as a large-field tournament punt.

Golden State Warriors

• Pace of Play: 103.5 (1st)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.5 (9th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.7 (17th)

Notable Injuries

• Draymond Green (Warriors) – OUT

The Warriors’ title defense came to an early end with their aforementioned second-round ouster at the hands of the Lakers. This is yet another team that made a significant move over the summer. Shortly after Beal landed in Phoenix, the Warriors shipped Jordan Poole and some filler to DC in exchange for Chris Paul. So, CP3 will get an immediate #RevengeGame against the team that sent him away as a part of its offseason fire sale.

Otherwise, this team is almost identical to the one we saw last season. Swapping the high-usage Poole for Paul was an interesting move considering CP3 may well be the best floor general of his generation. He typically needs the ball in his hands, and it sure looks as though he’ll be the starting point guard on opening night. As of now, we’re projecting Draymond Green to start at center with Kevon Looney playing off the bench. We do have some injury news, as well, with Green having already been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Paul likely won’t generate much usage playing next to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, but he still mustered 1.16 FP/min on a team with Booker and KD for much of last season. Playing next to high-volume scorers is nothing new, and Paul will always find ways to contribute. $5,600 on DK just looks like a mistake, and he may well be the most popular player on the slate as a result. Paul is much less of a priority at $8,000 on FanDuel.

With CP3 in the mix, it stands to reason that Curry’s assist rate will drop after he led the team in that category (27%) a season ago. Steph is still a solid rebounder for a guard, though, and he may well see his usage increase from the 31% mark he posted in 2022-23. Curry contributed 1.42 FP/min across 69 games last year. For as much firepower as the Suns have offensively, their defense figures to be a work in progress early in the year. Golden State has the highest implied team total on the slate (116.75), but Steph could fly under the radar from an ownership standpoint thanks to his higher salaries ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD) on a slate with countless studs.

Poole’s departure could lead to a little extra usage for Thompson, who was right at 1.00 FP/min last year on 25.7% usage. His reliance on scoring typically gives him a lower floor from a DFS standpoint. As a result, Klay feels a little overpriced ($6,500) on a slate in which just about everyone else looks a tick too cheap. Andrew Wiggins (0.96 FP/min) falls into that same salary midrange as Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. He’s another guy whose scoring upside should improve now that Poole is gone, so I’m bullish on him here on DraftKings ($5,500).

Green’s absence will likely vault Kevon Looney back into the starting unit. The Warriors were already expected to give Jonathan Kuminga a sizable role off the bench, but he’ll look even better with Draymond out. Looney is the priority cheapie considering he averaged 1.03 FP/min with Green off the floor last year. We have him projected to play 26 minutes, while Kuminga is up to 24.

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