NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (1/2)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2024-01-02 18:35:40

We’ve got 6 games on the NBA schedule for the 2nd day of 2024. The first slate of the year was a rather messy one with weird injury situations and a few blowouts, so let’s hope for some more competitive games tonight.

Without further ado, here’s a deep dive into this 6-gamer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Preview for Tuesday, January 2

Chicago Bulls

• Pace of Play: 98.3 (30th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 110.7 (21st)
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.3 (15th)

Notable Injuries

• Nikola Vucevic – OUT
• Zach LaVine – OUT
• Torrey Craig – OUT
• Lonzo Ball – OUT
• Onuralp Bitim – OUT

The Bulls are still dealing with a few key injuries ahead of tonight’s clash with the Sixers in Philly. Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine are the primary pieces missing from the lineup, and Chicago is a healthy 9.5-point underdog on the road as a result.

The absence of Vucevic means we can once again look to Andre Drummond as a high-end play at center. He’s up to 1.42 FP/minute on the season, though there is certainly risk in this matchup against Joel Embiid. Drummond will still crack my tournament player pool, especially at only $8,200 on DraftKings. Coby White (+4.5%) and DeMar DeRozan (+3.4%) get the biggest usage boosts on the team with Vucevic and LaVine out, and both are playing heavy minutes on a nightly basis. We’ve also seen the salaries of both players stabilize around the $8,000 range on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Both are viable in tournaments if you’re confident in this game to stay competitive.

Otherwise, we’re looking at fringe value types like Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, and Ayo Dosunmu. None of these guys project well at all from a median standpoint. Williams offers the most intrigue in a big-minute starting role, but there’s better value to be found elsewhere on this slate.

Philadelphia 76ers

• Pace of Play: 101.8 (16th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 109.1 (6th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 118.2 (30th)

Notable Injuries

• De’Anthony Melton – OUT

Joel Embiid is off the Sixers’ injury report after missing a few games with a sprained ankle, while De’Anthony Melton will miss tonight’s clash against the Bulls. We’re projecting a full complement of minutes for Embiid in this one, while we have Kelly Oubre sticking with the projected starting lineup in place of Melton.

Embiid has been terrific all year (1.83 FP/minute, 40.2% usage), and I’m not at all scared away by a matchup with Drummond. He’s easier to get to on DK ($11,000) than he is on FD ($12,500), but he’s pretty clearly the top overall play on the slate in any scenario. Tyrese Maxey (+6.7%) and Oubre (+3%) get solid usage bumps without Melton. We’re not getting a discount on either of them, but I’d also expect almost no ownership to flock to Maxey with Embiid now back.

Philly is running a fairly deep rotation these days with Nicolas Batum, Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris, and Paul Reed all projecting for minutes. Tobias Harris is a bit expensive for the role he’ll play with Embiid back, so I’ll wait for the salaries to come back down before going back to the well there.

San Antonio Spurs

• Pace of Play: 104.8 (3rd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.5 (29th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.1 (25th)

Notable Injuries

• Zach Collins – OUT
• Charles Bassey – OUT

The Spurs are 10.5-point underdogs tonight in Memphis, which is the second-widest spread of the 6 games on the schedule. Zach Collins is still missing from the Spurs’ lineup, while Keldon Johnson is probable after missing Sunday’s game with a sore back.

Victor Wembanyama (1.52 FP/minute) is already as advertised, but he hasn’t played more than 24 minutes in a game since December 17th as he continues to deal with an ankle injury. We’ve got him at 26 tonight, but it’s hard to have too much interest in paying up for him if the team is going to keep him on a short leash. The matchup is also subpar, as the Grizzlies have yielded the 3rd-fewest points in the paint per game on the year.

Otherwise, I’m not sure what we’re supposed to like about this team. Gregg Popovich is another guy running a crowded rotation, and we aren’t getting any discounts on Johnson or Devin Vassell. You can’t trust the minutes for Malaki Branham, while Tre Jones has a wide range of outcomes off the bench. Sandro Mamukelashvili logged 20 minutes off the bench with Collins out in the last game, but he benefited from blowout run.

Memphis Grizzlies

• Pace of Play: 102.2 (12th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 103.5 (30th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111 (11th)

Notable Injuries

• Steven Adams – OUT
• Brandon Clarke – OUT

After dealing with a seemingly endless rash of injuries, the Grizzlies are suddenly looking pretty healthy. They’re sizable home favorites over the woeful Spurs tonight, and their 123.25 total is among the highest on the board.

Ja Morant (32.3% usage, 1.28 FPminute) has picked up right where he left off last season, and he makes for a perfectly fine GPP pay-up option in the $10,000 range against this exploitable San Antonio defense. Desmond Bane (1.22 FP/minute) has continued to show a high floor even with Ja back, while Jaren Jackson has been the one suffering most from a usage standpoint with Memphis getting healthy. JJJ’s sub-$8,000 salaries are still admittedly alluring for tournaments, but he’s not the safest play in the world.

Guys like Luke Kennard and Bismack Biyombo are fringe values, at best, while Marcus Smart doesn’t grade out all that well with the rest of the rotation intact. Beyond the 3 stars, the Grizzlies don’t look appealing.

Brooklyn Nets

• Pace of Play: 100.9 (21st)
• Offensive Efficiency: 114.1 (10th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.1 (24th)

Notable Injuries

• Ben Simmons – OUT
• Lonnie Walker – OUT

The Nets and Pelicans are both hovering around the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and both teams rank near the middle of the league in most major statistical categories. We’ve got a good old-fashioned mid-off here, folks. Brooklyn checks in as a 6-point road ‘dog in the Big Easy tonight.

Nic Claxton (1.18 FP/min.) tops the point-per-dollar value charts on both sites, as is the case seemingly every single day with this team. Claxton is rarely the first center I’m trying to cram into my lineups, thanks to his limited usage, but he has flashed an occasional ceiling of late. Cam Thomas (31.6%), Mikal Bridges (26%), and Spencer Dinwiddie (20.5%) handle most of the usage for Brooklyn. I don’t think Bridges or Dinwiddie are bad individual tournament fliers in big-minute roles, with Bridges looking particularly solid on DK at only $7,200.

Cameron Johnson (0.94 FP/minute) is fine as a last piece but hardly a priority. Ditto for Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale, who both need all the minutes they can handle in order to make up for their lackluster per-minute production. Since they’re essentially splitting minutes, I’m not interested in either.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Pace of Play: 101.9 (14th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.7 (13th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 (7th)

Notable Injuries

• Trey Murphy – QUESTIONABLE
• Matt Ryan – OUT

The Pelicans are favored by 6 points at home here over the Nets with a 117.5 total. Trey Murphy is iffy for the Pels after missing the last game with a sore knee. I wouldn’t say that’s massive news for the slate, but Naji Marshall and Jose Alvarado would have paths to more playing time if Murph sits once again.

You can always make a case to get to Zion Williamson (28.8% usage), Brandon Ingram (28.9%), and CJ McCollum (23.6%) in any format. The salaries rarely budge on these guys, and they’re all likely to play significant minutes just about every night. Zion looks the most underpriced on both sites, but $7,100 on DK for CJ is cheap enough. The Nets have allowed the 6th-most points in the paint per game this season, so it’s a good spot for Zion to be attacking the rim.

Larry Nance is back from injury, which means a lower minutes floor for Jonas Valanciunas. Nance has been terrific in the 2 games since his return, and I don’t think he’s the worst salary-saver in a large-field GPP. He’s easier to get to FanDuel, as he has center-only eligibility on DraftKings.

Boston Celtics

• Pace of Play: 100.3 (26th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.5 (3rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (5th)

Notable Injuries

None

This Celtics-Thunder clash is easily the best real-life basketball game on the slate. Both teams rank in the top 5 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating, and Boston is listed as a 4-point favorite on the road. Jrue Holiday is expected to return to the lineup after missing Sunday’s game with a sore elbow.

The Celts are priced appropriately around the industry with everybody healthy. We know Jayson Tatum (30.2%) and Jaylen Brown (29%) will soak up most of the usage. Tatum, at a sub-$10,000 salary, still stands out as a nice way to spend up, but he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling with everybody in the lineup. Brown is up in the mid-$8,000s these days, but he’s typically closer to the upper-$7,000s with the team at full strength.

Holiday (0.93 FP/minute) hasn’t been quite as productive with his new team. Derrick White (1.08) is outstanding, but I’ll have a hard time justifying paying $8,000 for him here. Kristaps Porzingis is my favorite Celtic to sprinkle into DK GPP builds at $8,000, especially considering Zion Williamson figures to be a significantly more popular play in the same price range.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Pace of Play: 103.1 (8th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.1 (5th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (3rd)

Notable Injuries

None

The Thunder have been remarkably healthy this season, and they’ll once again have their full roster available tonight with the Celtics paying a visit. Oklahoma City is a 4-point home underdog here with a 117.75 total.

Even against Boston’s stingy defense, I’ll have interest in paying up for a still-underpriced Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at only $10,300 on DK. He’s projected to garner sub-10% ownership, and he’s been about as matchup-proof as anyone in the league this season. Shai leads OKC in usage (32.7%) with a gaudy 1.59 FP/minute rate.

Chet Holmgren (1.3 FP/minute) is next on the GPP wish list, and he’s a better value on DK ($7,600) than he is on FanDuel ($8,400). This doesn’t really look like the spot to be paying a premium for Jalen Williams, but Josh Giddey (1.1 FP/minute) rates out as a decent point-per-dollar dart throw at $5,600 on DK. Giddey’s minutes have been volatile all year, but it won’t take a massive effort for him to pay off that price tag.

Orlando Magic

• Pace of Play: 102.4 (10th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 110.1 (24th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (2nd)

Notable Injuries

• Markelle Fultz – QUESTIONABLE
• Joe Ingles – OUT
• Jonathan Isaac – OUT

The upstart Magic are just 3-point underdogs on the road against the struggling (downstop?) Warriors. Markelle Fultz is questionable for the visitors with the knee issue that’s kept him on the sidelines since the beginning of November. We have Fultz projected to start if he suits up, but 24 minutes isn’t really enough for him to look all that appealing from a fantasy standpoint. Anthony Black would be the one to head back to the bench in that scenario.

In fact, the only Magic men that stand out much at all are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who are checking in around $8,000 on both sites. Both forwards are averaging more than 1.1 FP/minute, and they’re both pushing for 40 minutes just about every night. I’m happy to get to both in this spot as high-floor/high-ceiling forward options. Jalen Suggs would make for a passable GPP roll of the dice in the midrange, though he’d look a little better if Fultz were still out.

Wendell Carter returned to the lineup in the last game, but the Magic are still trotting out a 3-man center rotation between WCJ, Goga Bitadze, and Moe Wagner. Nothing to see here, folks.

Golden State Warriors

• Pace of Play: 101.9 (14th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.6 (15th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113 (17th)

Notable Injuries

• Draymond Green – OUT

The Warriors have been stuck in the mud all season, which has left Steve Kerr searching for answers. He decided to shake things up yet again in the last game. Brandin Podziemski and Kevon Looney were banished back to the bench, while Chris Paul and Trayce Jackson-Davis drew surprise starts. We have CP3 and TJD tentatively projected to start again tonight, but this situation is certainly in flux.

Paul played 33 minutes in that start, which was his most in a game since December 19th. He grades out as one of the better midrange value plays on the board if he starts again tonight, especially at only $5,600 on DK. Jackson-Davis (1.13 FP/minute) has been quite productive all year, and it’s about time the Warriors finally rewarded him with a bigger role. He logged 29 minutes the other night, and he’d be a terrific play again tonight if he’s still starting.

Podz still played 29 minutes off the bench, so it’s not like Kerr completely excised him from the rotation. Looney, however, logged just 11, which was fewer than the 15 minutes Dario Saric saw off the bench. I don’t think Podziemski is a terrible tournament play considering he’s going to see next to no ownership at his premium salaries. Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins are essentially splitting minutes at the 4 with Draymond Green still suspended. Both are dart throws, at best, though we have Wiggins projected to play a couple more minutes.

A matchup against a stellar Orlando defense isn’t the perfect spot for Stephen Curry to break out of his recent slump, though we are getting a relative discount here at his sub-$9,000 salaries. Klay Thompson is struggling once again, and Kerr hasn’t been afraid to bench him when his shots aren’t falling. I’m not sure how you roster Klay with any confidence at this point.

Charlotte Hornets

• Pace of Play: 101.2 (17th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 108.7 (26th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 118.9 (30th)

Notable Injuries

• Terry Rozier – DOUBTFUL
• LaMelo Ball – OUT
• Gordon Hayward – OUT
• Mark Williams – DOUBTFUL
• Frank Ntilikina – OUT

The Hornets are expected to be down 4 starters for the second consecutive tonight after last night’s blowout loss in Denver. Terry Rozier is doubtful with an illness, but we’ll get some more clarity when the Hornets release their injury report later. Charlotte is a massive 16-point underdog in Sacramento this evening.

Ish Smith (0.73 FP/minute) drew the start in Rozier’s place last night and logged about 29 minutes. Nick Smith played 20 off the bench. It feels terrible, but Ish grades out as one of the strongest values on the slate at any position as of this writing. Nick is in play as a GPP pivot if Ish is going to pull the lion’s share of the ownership.

Charlotte is losing a ton of usage with those 4 starters out of the mix. Brandon Miller (28.4%) and Miles Bridges (28%) lead the team in that category with the others out, and both guys grade out as solid plays in projections. Both guys topped 32 minutes on the losing end of last night’s blowout, so they do seem fairly safe even if (when?) this game gets out of hand. Nick Richards (1.03 FP/minute) has been very good of late with Mark Williams out of the lineup, and I have no qualms with looking his way in any format at $6,000 on both sites.

Sacramento Kings

• Pace of Play: 102.3 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.9 (11th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.8 (20th)

Notable Injuries

None

Unlike the Hornets, the Kings are fully healthy these days. Their 124.25 total is the highest on the slate, and rightfully so. Not only are the Hornets playing the latter half of a brutal back-to-back, but they’ll also enter this game ranked dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Kings are fully capable of dropping 150 points in this spot.

De’Aaron Fox (1.41 FP/minute) and Domantas Sabonis (1.41) are the headliners here, of course. Both players are exactly $10,000 on FanDuel, while they’re a shade south of the mark on DraftKings. I am happy to prioritize both of them here, as I’d expect them to put up beefy scores even if the Hornets get obliterated. I slightly prefer the spot for Sabonis, as the Hornets have been getting absolutely crushed on the boards for the past several seasons.

One change to note here is that Chris Duarte replaced the scuffling Kevin Huerter in the starting lineup on Sunday. Duarte was mediocre (0.67 FP/minute) in 26 minutes of action, but he’s still cheap with a path to minutes in a very exploitable matchup tonight. We can’t trust Huerter’s minutes off the bench, while Harrison Barnes (0.65 FP/minute) is just out there getting cardio. Malik Monk and Keegan Murray are the secondary Sacramento pieces worth a look here in the $6,000 range on both sites.

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