NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (11/2)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-11-02 16:43:44

Last night’s 13-game slate was a wild ride, and we’ll tone things down on Thursday night with just 4 games on the docket. A short slate doesn’t relieve us of injury news, however, with all of Devin Booker, Brandon Ingram, Jalen Duren, and Alec Burks carrying questionable tags into this one. It’s worth noting that Ingram, Duren, and Burks all sat out just last night, while Booker hasn’t played since the season opener over a week ago.

Without further ado, here’s a deep dive into this 4-gamer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Preview for Thursday, November 2

Toronto Raptors

• Pace of Play: 99.7 (29th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 104.1 (21st)
• Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (5th)

Notable Injuries

• Precious Achiuwa – DOUBTFUL
• Christian Koloko – OUT
• Otto Porter – QUESTIONABLE

The Raptors will head to Philly to take on a Sixers team now led by ex-Toronto coach Nick Nurse. I’m sure Nurse will be coaching extra hard in this one for the revenge factor. The Raps wiped the floor with a suddenly meh Bucks team at home last night, and they’re sizable 9.5-point underdogs tonight against a well-rested Philadelphia squad.

Toronto is playing at the league’s second-slowest pace so far under head coach Darko Rajakovic, while they’re up to fifth in D-rating early on. He’s also not riding his starters quite as heavily as Nurse did. Fred VanVleet is no longer here, of course, while Scottie Barnes (25.1%) is now leading the team in usage. He’s been phenomenal thus far, but it didn’t take long for the sites to price him up. Pascal Siakam (0.88 FP/min) has been surprisingly mediocre overall, yet we’re not getting much of a discount with him. He’s a playable short-slate spend that still offers a ceiling, but Toronto does have the lowest total on the slate (103.5).

If I’m getting to anyone from the Raptors, it’ll be the cheaper Dennis Schroder and Jakob Poeltl. Any center facing off with Joel Embiid is at risk of falling into foul trouble, but Poeltl is once again quietly putting together solid numbers on a nightly basis (0.95 FP/min). $5,900 on both sites is more than fair. Schroder (0.99) has taken over for VanVleet as the everyday starting point guard, and he has the potential to see 35+ minutes if this game is competitive.

OG Anunoby has seen his usage dip (18.7%) in his first year under Rajakovic thus far, while the minutes for Gary Trent off the bench have been volatile. I don’t mind Anunoby on DraftKings ($5,600) for $1,300 less than we’re paying on FD, but he’s still not a major priority for me.

Philadelphia 76ers

• Pace of Play: 101.5 (22nd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 117 (3rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (13th)

Notable Injuries

• Nicolas Batum – OUT

The Sixers finally ended the James Harden saga by trading him to the Clippers earlier this week. In return, they imported the Clips’ entire frontcourt rotation – Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Marcus Morris, and KJ Martin – alongside some useful future draft assets.

With Harden gone, Tyrese Maxey will continue in the massive role he’s been playing so far this season. His usage is way up (27.3%), as is his per-minute production (1.15). Maxey has also totaled 115 minutes through his first 3 games under Nurse, which comes out to an average of more than 38 a night. Maxey is already up over $8,000 on both sites, but he’s one of the few players on the slate capable of topping 40 minutes in regulation. The matchup isn’t great, but I’d expect limited ownership as a result.

The Sixers plan to start Kelly Oubre in place of the traded PJ Tucker, at least initially. Oubre has been outstanding in a big-minute reserve role (24% usage, 1.03 FP/min), and he grades out as a reasonable value at $5,800 on both DK and FD in 32 projected minutes. There is some uncertainty there, of course, especially with Covington and Danuel House vying for time off the bench. The usage for Tobias Harris is still hovering around just the 18% mark even without Harden for the first 3 games. $6,700 on FanDuel is passable, but I’m not dying to pay $7,100 for Tobias on DK.

De’Anthony Melton figures to remain in the starting group moving forward with Harden gone. There’s room for growth on his current 0.81 FPPM rate, and he’s a good bet to top 30 minutes if the game stays close. As a result, he’s one of my favorite midrange salary savers on the board. Joel Embiid (39% usage, 1.85 FP/min) has been on a tear since an underwhelming opening night, and he demolished the poor Blazers the other night in just 3 quarters of work. There is one player on this slate with 80 fantasy points within his reasonable range of outcomes, which is enough to make Embiid a clear core play in all formats.

Detroit Pistons

• Pace of Play: 102.9 (16th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 104.9 (19th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (11th)

Notable Injuries

• Jalen Duren – QUESTIONABLE
• Alec Burks – QUESTIONABLE

The Pistons lost a tight one at home to the Blazers last night, and they’ll head to NOLA for a clash with the Pelicans this evening. Jalen Duren missed that game with a sprained ankle, while Alec Burks was a post-lock scratch with forearm soreness. Detroit’s a 7.5-point road underdog here with a middling 105 total.

This team may still be a year or so away from legit playoff contention, but the pieces are in place. Cade Cunningham (33% usage, 1.09 FP/min) is off to a torrid start after missing most of last season with an injury. $8,000 on FD doesn’t necessarily look like too much to pay, though I’d expect him to get a heavy dosage of Herb Jones in this one. Killian Hayes ($4,600 DK) is cheap and starting for this team. He’s been rather poor (0.71 FPPM), but his playing time looks a little safer if Burks sits again tonight. Jaden Ivey seems to be in Monty Williams’ doghouse already, as he hasn’t topped 23 minutes in a single game off the bench. He looks a little too pricey, as a result.

Ausar Thompson can’t shoot, but that hasn’t stopped the rookie from contributing 1.1 FP/min through his first 5 NBA games. He’s third on the team in rebound rate and fourth in assist rate, and we’ve already seen him block 3 or more shots in 2 games. He’s doing a little bit of everything in addition to getting some opportunistic buckets. Thompson seems to have some Ben Simmons in his game, which gives him a healthy floor despite limited usage.

Isaiah Stewart is essentially a full-time power forward these days. He’s not quite as productive (0.81 FP/min) as a result, but he has topped 30 minutes in every game. He’s a fine midrange value, particularly at $5,700 on FD. Duren (1.37 FP/min) has been incredible when healthy, but we’ll see if he actually suits up. If he doesn’t, Marvin Bagley (1.05) will again become a priority value in all formats.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Pace of Play: 103.4 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 101.5 (27th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 103 (7th)

Notable Injuries

• Brandon Ingram – QUESTIONABLE
• Naji Marshall – OUT
• Jose Alvarado – OUT
• Trey Murphy – OUT

The Pels got the better of OKC last night, and they’re quietly 3-1 as they continue their homestand tonight against the visiting Pistons. Brandon Ingram has missed consecutive games with a knee issue, and I’d say he’s highly questionable tonight after sitting yesterday. Ingram (31.9%) and Zion Williamson (31%) are essentially the Pels’ co-usage leaders, though Jonas Valanciunas (+5.7%) and CJ McCollum (+2.1%) would benefit from another BI absence.

We’re projecting close to full minutes for Ingram if he goes, which makes him playable in all formats in the $8,000 range. If he doesn’t, I’ll have a lot more interest in McCollum. Williamson, meanwhile, is playable either way at $7,800 on FD, while $9,200 on DK looks a little steep. Valanciunas is still productive (1.12 FP/min), but he always runs the risk of losing crunch-time minutes to Larry Nance off the bench. JoVal almost always pops in projections when he’s in the $6,000 range, but the center position comes with the usual opportunity cost warning. Poeltl, Wendell Carter, and Jusuf Nurkic are alternatives in the same range that seem to have safer minutes floors.

Herb Jones (+3.5%) quietly sees a noteworthy usage boost without Ingram, while we’ve seen Jordan Hawkins (0.78 FP/min) jump into the starting unit in his place. I’ll have more interest in Jones without Ingram, but he’s really just a leftover if the Pelicans are back to full strength here. Hawkins’ viability depends entirely on Ingram, as well. If he draws another start, he’ll emerge as one of the best cheapies on the slate.

Orlando Magic

• Pace of Play: 100.4 (27th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.5 (18th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (2nd)

Notable Injuries

None

The Magic’s long western road swing will continue tonight in SLC. They’ll have the rest advantage over a Utah team that played just last night, but they’re still 1-point underdogs away from home in this one. Jonathan Isaac should be back after resting in the last game, which gives Jamahl Mosley a full roster tonight.

Markelle Fultz (0.79 FP/min) is off to a sluggish start by his standards, while Jalen Suggs (0.92) has surprisingly been the more productive starting guard. I have more faith in Fultz long-term, which makes him my preferred play given their comparable salaries tonight. Cole Anthony (1.04 FP/min) is always worth a look in tournaments as the Magic’s primary gunner off the bench. He doesn’t have a ton of minutes upside, but still offers a ceiling thanks to his efficiency.

Paolo Banchero (0.94 FP/min) is another guy driving the struggle bus early in the year, while Franz Wagner (1.03) continues to do Franz Wagner things. The minutes are reliable for both forwards, and they’re both attractively priced around the industry. I’d ordinarily shy away from pairing two high-usage players from the same team in a GPP build, but I’m willing to make an exception here on a 4-gamer with limited options. Wendell Carter (0.80 FP/min) hasn’t hit his stride yet, either, but we can still trust the role. I’ll be going right back to the well here, too.

Utah Jazz

• Pace of Play: 103.4 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 111.1 (9th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.5 (28th)

Notable Injuries

None

The Jazz are on a back-to-back, so we’ll see if anyone unexpectedly pops up on the injury report later today. This team is similar to the one we saw last season, featuring a cast of random pieces and a deep rotation. John Collins is the noteworthy newcomer, while Talen Horton-Tucker is now a full-time starter.

THT (0.97 FP/min) has always been a per-minute dynamo, though he’s cracked 30 minutes just once through the first 5 games. I still have plenty of interest given the lack of stable value we have available as of this writing, especially considering he still offers a decent enough ceiling. Jordan Clarkson (23.7%) and Lauri Markkanen (27.4%) are predictably among Utah’s usage leaders once again. Markkanen (1.39 FP/min) continues to put up gaudy numbers at next to no ownership on a nightly basis. Even in the $9,000 range, I have no qualms with looking his way as a differentiator in GPPs, especially if the rest of my build is chalky. Clarkson has flashed a wide range of outcomes this season, but $5,400 on DK looks a bit light.

Collins (1.00 FP/min) is playing well in spite of a middling 16.6% usage rate, and the minutes have been there. I’ll be heavy on him as long as he continues to be underpriced around the industry. Walker Kessler (0.86) has had one stellar game and a slew of terrible ones. I prefer other centers in the $6,000 range, as mentioned previously.

San Antonio Spurs

• Pace of Play: 105.5 (6th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 102.6 (26th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.8 (24th)

Notable Injuries

None

The Spurs picked up an impressive comeback win over the Suns on Tuesday night, and tonight the two teams will tangle again in the desert. Victor Wembanyama (1.23 FP/min) certainly looks like the real deal on both ends of the floor, but it looks like the team plans to limit his workload early on. He’s cracked 30 minutes once all season, and that was an OT game in which he played 31. Just about anyone is playable on a 4-game slate, but I plan to let others chase Wemby while he’s still playing limited minutes.

In fact, Devin Vassell seems to be the only guy we can trust to see mid-30s minutes in close games, as Jeremy Sochan, Zach Collins, and Keldon Johnson have all been closer to 30 on a nightly basis. Vassell is priced near his ceiling at this point, but I don’t mind looking his way in a more balanced build. Johnson’s usage has come down with Wemby now in the mix, while Sochan and Collins have fared well on a per-minute basis. I’ll have the most interest in Sochan, but he’s still not necessarily a priority, either.

Tre Jones grades out as the best point-per-dollar value from this team on DK and FD, but the floor is low here given his new role backing up Sochan.

Phoenix Suns

• Pace of Play: 103.8 (8th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 107.1 (16th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (3rd)

Notable Injuries

• Devin Booker – QUESTIONABLE
• Bradley Beal – OUT
• Damion Lee – OUT

Just about every slate involving the Suns this season has felt the same. Kevin Durant is taking on a huge usage role (33.4%) with his co-stars out injured, though help could be on the way tonight. Devin Booker is officially questionable after missing the past few games with an ankle issue. Bradley Beal, however, remains out.

If Booker plays, KD suddenly looks overpriced at $10,800 on both sites. There’s still always upside with Durant, but he could come in over-owned if we don’t have this news before the first games lock. Even Booker himself looks pricey for the 32 minutes we have him projected to play if he returns.

If Booker’s out, we’ll be going right back to the likes of Eric Gordon, Jordan Goodwin, and Grayson Allen as values. Allen and Josh Okogie should start regardless with Beal still out. Okogie’s the one that grades out as the best value with everyone currently projected to play, while we’ve seen the salaries creep up on Gordon, Allen, and Goodwin. Jusuf Nurkic and Drew Eubanks are both off to impressive starts with their new team, as well. Nurkic (1.26 FP/min) is still very much in play even at his more elevated salaries, while Eubanks feels like a bit of a chase as he gets up into the $5,000 range.

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