NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Wednesday, April 26
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Last night we had three road teams trying to stave off elimination and tonight we have three home teams trying to stave off elimination. The Cavaliers, Bucks, and Grizzlies all need to win at home in order to extend their series. To cap off the night, we get the fifth battle between the Kings and Warriors. It’s shaping up to be another great night of basketball. The regular season was a struggle, but the playoffs have more than made up for it.
Let’s dive into the games.
Game 5: New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Series: Knicks 3 – Cavaliers 1
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: NYK 101 – CLE 97
- Game 2: NYK 90 – CLE 107
- Game 3: CLE 79 – NYK 99
- Game 4: CLE 93 – NYK 102
Notable Injuries
Quentin Grimes – Questionable
New York Knicks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | $7,500 | $8,600 | 35.0 | 1.7 | 39.9 | 2.1 | 27% | 3% | 1.14 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 0.05 | 38 | 39.6 | 5.29 | 38.4 | 4.47 | |
| Josh Hart | $5,100 | $6,000 | 32.3 | -0.2 | 28.1 | -1.4 | 12% | 4% | 0.87 | -0.04 | 0.87 | -0.07 | 29 | 22.7 | 4.45 | 22.7 | 3.78 | |
| RJ Barrett | $5,400 | $6,400 | 33.9 | -0.7 | 31.1 | -1.7 | 26% | -4% | 0.92 | -0.03 | 0.87 | 0.04 | 33 | 25.5 | 4.71 | 24.4 | 3.81 | |
| Julius Randle | $6,900 | $7,600 | 35.5 | -3.8 | 46.3 | -17.1 | 29% | 0% | 1.31 | -0.38 | 1.23 | -0.37 | 33 | 36.0 | 5.22 | 33.6 | 4.42 | |
| Mitchell Robinson | $4,800 | $6,100 | 26.9 | -0.6 | 25.9 | -1.7 | 10% | -1% | 0.96 | -0.04 | 1.04 | -0.03 | 27 | 25.7 | 5.35 | 27.4 | 4.48 | |
| Immanuel Quickley | $4,300 | $4,000 | 28.9 | -6.6 | 28.2 | -16.4 | 20% | -5% | 0.97 | -0.45 | 0.96 | -0.45 | 23 | 17.9 | 4.16 | 17.6 | 4.40 | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | $4,100 | $4,600 | 19.9 | 1.8 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 11% | 2% | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.92 | 0.04 | 21 | 18.8 | 4.58 | 19.8 | 4.29 | |
| Quentin Grimes | $3,600 | $4,300 | 29.9 | -9.1 | 21.3 | -8.7 | 14% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.11 | 0.69 | -0.03 | 21 | 12.2 | 3.39 | 12.1 | 2.82 | |
| Obi Toppin | $4,200 | $3,900 | 15.7 | 0.4 | 13.8 | 3.5 | 19% | 0% | 0.88 | 0.20 | 0.85 | 0.28 | 15 | 11.8 | 2.80 | 11.6 | 2.97 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Cleveland Cavaliers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | $7,000 | $7,800 | 35.5 | 1.6 | 39.4 | -3.8 | 26% | 0% | 1.11 | -0.15 | 1.06 | -0.13 | 38 | 35.5 | 5.07 | 33.7 | 4.31 | |
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,700 | $9,700 | 35.8 | 4.8 | 44.7 | -0.7 | 31% | -2% | 1.25 | -0.17 | 1.21 | -0.16 | 40 | 47.3 | 5.44 | 45.5 | 4.69 | |
| Caris LeVert | $5,200 | $5,900 | 30.2 | 2.8 | 25.4 | -0.1 | 18% | 2% | 0.84 | -0.07 | 0.83 | -0.10 | 36 | 27.7 | 5.33 | 26.7 | 4.53 | |
| Evan Mobley | $6,600 | $7,000 | 34.4 | 2.8 | 36.0 | -6.2 | 20% | -4% | 1.05 | -0.25 | 1.07 | -0.26 | 38 | 36.2 | 5.48 | 37.1 | 5.30 | |
| Jarrett Allen | $6,200 | $6,900 | 32.6 | 6.0 | 33.1 | -4.4 | 16% | -6% | 1.02 | -0.27 | 1.03 | -0.25 | 38 | 34.5 | 5.56 | 35.3 | 5.12 | |
| Cedi Osman | $3,300 | $3,700 | 20.1 | -0.4 | 15.4 | -2.1 | 18% | -1% | 0.77 | -0.09 | 0.74 | -0.08 | 20 | 14.5 | 4.38 | 13.8 | 3.73 | |
| Isaac Okoro | $3,200 | $3,600 | 21.7 | -8.0 | 13.5 | -4.6 | 12% | 8% | 0.62 | 0.03 | 0.64 | -0.01 | 18 | 9.6 | 3.01 | 9.8 | 2.73 | |
| Danny Green | $3,000 | $3,600 | 12.6 | -0.8 | 9.8 | -3.8 | 19% | -11% | 0.78 | -0.27 | 0.74 | -0.18 | 6 | 4.5 | 1.51 | 4.4 | 1.23 | |
| Ricky Rubio | $3,000 | $3,500 | 17.2 | -11.5 | 14.9 | -11.2 | 17% | -2% | 0.87 | -0.21 | 0.88 | -0.32 | 6 | 4.9 | 1.63 | 4.8 | 1.37 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The big story in the series has been the defense of the Knicks. The Cavaliers have failed to score 100 points in three of the first four games and are now facing elimination. Based on regular season statistics, the Cavaliers were thought to be the better defensive team. We are learning that the playoffs are a different animal. The Knicks now have three chances to close out this series and move on to the second round. Tonight’s game features a 5.5-point spread and a 202.5-point total.
This game has the lowest total by a wide margin and on paper, the Cavaliers are the worst possible matchup (30th in pace, first in defensive rating). While the Knicks are winning games, they haven’t exactly been a great team to target for DFS. Jalen Brunson is the only starter that has averaged more fantasy points in this series than in the regular season. He’s topped 36 fantasy points in every game and he had a big outing against Cleveland during the regular season. He’s a fine play, but not a priority.
Quentin Grimes is listed as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status. Even if he’s active, Josh Hart has earned himself a much bigger role moving forward. He’s coming off of a game where he played 39 minutes and scored 34 fantasy points. RJ Barrett has been in a slump for what feels like a couple of months now. It’s hard to expect him to find it all of a sudden, especially on the road in this matchup.
Julius Randle has only scored 40 fantasy points in the last two games combined. The Cavaliers might have the best defensive frontcourt in the league, which does limit his upside. The positive is that he’s priced down to $6,900 on DraftKings. Both centers for the Knicks can be used as value plays on DraftKings. Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein have both played fairly well in this series and will continue to split the minutes at center.
The Cavaliers have struggled to find any rhythm offensively in this series. A big part of that should be credited to the Knicks, but Cleveland hasn’t been able to make the necessary adjustments. Darius Garland has been all over the place in this series, scoring 27, 47, 24, and 43 fantasy points. We shouldn’t be surprised if he plays 40+ minutes in this one. The same goes for Donovan Mitchell, who is coming off of his worst game of the series. The shot volume and usage have been there and I love that his price has come down on all sites.
The Cavaliers quickly moved on from Isaac Okoro and are now starting Caris LeVert. This hasn’t really helped on either side of the court, but at least he’s not playing empty minutes. He’s a viable value tonight, as he should push for big minutes once again. There is a path for Cedi Osman to get there, but he should only be sprinkled into your large-field tournament lineups.
While the Cavaliers’ frontcourt has played well on the defensive end of the floor, they have failed to contribute in other areas. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have averaged 30 and 29 fantasy points per game, despite both seeing a sizable uptick in playing time. Do we trust the form or do we trust the long-term talent and target them at discounted price points? I’m leaning toward being overweight on both.
NBA DFS Targets
Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Tournament Targets – Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Darius Garland
Salary Savers – Mitchell Robinson (DK), Isaiah Hartenstein (DK), Josh Hart (DK), Immanuel Quickley (FD), Caris LeVert (DK), Cedi Osman (DK MME)
Game 5: Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Lakers 3 – Grizzlies 1
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: LAL 128 – MEM 112
- Game 2: LAL 93 – MEM 103
- Game 3: MEM 101 – LAL 111
- Game 4: MEM 111 – LAL 117
Notable Injuries
None
Los Angeles Lakers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Angelo Russell | $6,000 | $6,100 | 32.5 | -1.0 | 33.9 | -5.4 | 23% | 0% | 1.04 | -0.14 | 1.00 | -0.15 | 31 | 29.8 | 4.97 | 28.5 | 4.67 | |
| Austin Reaves | $5,800 | $6,500 | 28.8 | 7.4 | 23.4 | 8.5 | 15% | 3% | 0.81 | 0.07 | 0.79 | 0.08 | 35 | 29.5 | 5.09 | 28.4 | 4.36 | |
| LeBron James | $10,300 | $10,900 | 35.5 | 3.1 | 52.6 | 1.3 | 32% | -7% | 1.48 | -0.09 | 1.43 | -0.04 | 38 | 46.7 | 4.53 | 44.8 | 4.11 | |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | $4,200 | $4,700 | 24.1 | -2.6 | 23.5 | -5.2 | 14% | -2% | 0.97 | -0.13 | 0.99 | -0.05 | 21 | 14.7 | 3.50 | 15.3 | 3.24 | |
| Anthony Davis | $10,200 | $11,700 | 34.0 | 4.7 | 51.7 | 0.0 | 28% | -4% | 1.52 | -0.19 | 1.54 | -0.11 | 38 | 51.2 | 5.02 | 51.4 | 4.39 | |
| Rui Hachimura | $5,700 | $5,000 | 23.3 | 4.3 | 19.6 | 8.6 | 19% | 1% | 0.84 | 0.18 | 0.84 | 0.15 | 27 | 23.8 | 4.17 | 23.2 | 4.63 | |
| Dennis Schroder | $3,800 | $4,500 | 30.1 | -7.5 | 24.2 | -10.4 | 18% | -4% | 0.80 | -0.19 | 0.79 | -0.17 | 23 | 17.4 | 4.57 | 17.0 | 3.78 | |
| Troy Brown | $3,200 | $3,600 | 24.5 | -7.8 | 16.6 | -7.1 | 12% | -4% | 0.68 | -0.11 | 0.68 | -0.07 | 17 | 10.0 | 3.12 | 10.0 | 2.76 | |
| Malik Beasley | $3,100 | $3,600 | 25.8 | -14.4 | 22.0 | -18.4 | 21% | -8% | 0.85 | -0.54 | 0.81 | -0.53 | 10 | 5.7 | 1.84 | 5.4 | 1.49 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Memphis Grizzlies Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | $9,700 | $10,300 | 31.9 | 6.7 | 48.4 | 1.6 | 34% | -4% | 1.52 | -0.22 | 1.46 | -0.22 | 39 | 51.0 | 5.26 | 49.0 | 4.76 | |
| Desmond Bane | $7,700 | $8,000 | 31.7 | 6.1 | 37.5 | -2.5 | 25% | 3% | 1.18 | -0.26 | 1.15 | -0.28 | 37 | 41.5 | 5.39 | 39.9 | 4.99 | |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,600 | $4,900 | 30.3 | -2.4 | 24.8 | -5.6 | 21% | 1% | 0.82 | -0.13 | 0.80 | -0.15 | 34 | 28.3 | 6.14 | 27.6 | 5.63 | |
| Jaren Jackson | $7,800 | $8,400 | 28.4 | 9.3 | 36.7 | 1.9 | 24% | -1% | 1.29 | -0.27 | 1.37 | -0.32 | 37 | 44.1 | 5.65 | 45.6 | 5.43 | |
| Xavier Tillman | $5,500 | $6,700 | 19.3 | 14.3 | 18.4 | 12.1 | 14% | -3% | 0.96 | -0.05 | 1.01 | -0.07 | 34 | 29.4 | 5.34 | 30.8 | 4.60 | |
| David Roddy | $3,400 | $3,700 | 18.0 | -2.4 | 12.9 | -2.1 | 16% | -2% | 0.71 | -0.02 | 0.71 | -0.05 | 14 | 8.9 | 2.61 | 8.7 | 2.35 | |
| Tyus Jones | $3,900 | $4,000 | 24.2 | -2.4 | 23.9 | -7.9 | 18% | -2% | 0.99 | -0.25 | 0.98 | -0.25 | 11 | 10.5 | 2.69 | 10.4 | 2.60 | |
| Luke Kennard | $4,100 | $3,900 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 16.9 | -0.2 | 14% | -4% | 0.76 | -0.01 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 20 | 14.3 | 3.50 | 13.9 | 3.56 | |
| Santi Aldama | $3,300 | $3,800 | 21.8 | -7.4 | 19.6 | -7.8 | 16% | -2% | 0.90 | -0.08 | 0.91 | -0.09 | 14 | 11.8 | 3.57 | 11.7 | 3.08 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
This Lakers has had a little bit of everything. The combination of trash talking and close games has really made each game a must-watch event. The Lakers were able to escape game four with a win in overtime and now lead the series three games to one. The Grizzlies have played well at times, but continue to find themselves in big holes early in games. If they can get off to a better start, it will really help their chances of forcing a game six back in Los Angeles.
D’Angelo Russell is one of those players that I never seem to get right. Even while watching the game, I wonder why the Lakers have him on the floor. He quickly proves me wrong by draining a few threes in a row. I know the price point is cheap, but I much prefer Dennis Schroder on a per-dollar basis. I personally think he gives the Lakers a better chance to win and it’s worth noting that he played 30 minutes in game four (five in overtime). At $3,800 on DraftKings, he’s one of my favorite value plays.
Austin Reaves is fun to watch and easy to root for. He has averaged 36 minutes and 32 fantasy points in the first four games of the series. He remains a solid mid-range option. I’m not sure what to make of the fact that LeBron James was shut down by Xavier Tillman for large parts of the second half in game four. He still finished with 65 fantasy points, but the offensive production took a hit with Tillman defending him. I don’t like betting against the king, but I don’t expect to have any exposure to LeBron tonight.
Rui Hachimura has been a bright spot in this series, but he has scored fewer fantasy points in each game — 40, 32, 24, and 16. Based on this pattern, he’s set to score eight fantasy points tonight. He’s one of the few players that is cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings tonight. Anthony Davis was held in check for most of game four, but has still averaged 52 fantasy points per game in this series. I slightly prefer him over LeBron in this game.
The Grizzlies are facing elimination, so we can expect big minutes from their key players. Ja Morant couldn’t get much going in game four, but had 79 fantasy points in game three. This is the type of game where he needs to come out and make a statement and I’m expecting just that. He’s a good bet to play 40+ minutes with increased usage in a fast-paced game at home. He’s one of the best spends of the slate.
Love or hate Dillon Brooks, he’s priced under $5,000 and expected to play 35 minutes tonight. The home crowd should get him going, so he should easily pay off his salary if he can stay out of foul trouble. Desmond Bane finally broke out with a big game the other night, but has still underwhelmed in three of the four games. I like the spot for him here, but would put him third or fourth on my list of priorities when it comes to the Grizzlies.
Jaren Jackson has made some huge plays defensively, he has topped 40 fantasy points in three of the four games, and he’s seen a major uptick in playing time. His price has come down on both sites, making him a strong option in all formats. I personally did not expect Xavier Tillman to have such a major role in the series, but he has averaged 31 fantasy points per game. The Grizzlies might use him to defend LeBron again, which would give him a high minute floor. We’ve seen some good things from David Roddy and Luke Kennard at times, but they are MME fliers at best on this four-game slate.
NBA DFS Targets
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (DK), Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson
Tournament Targets – LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, Desmond Bane
Salary Savers – Dennis Schroder (FD), Rui Hachimura, Xavier Tillman (DK)
Game 5: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 3 – Bucks 1
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 130 – MIL 117
- Game 2: MIA 122 – MIL 138
- Game 3: MIL 99 – MIA 121
- Game 4: MIL 114 – MIA 119
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Victor Oladipo – Out
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,300 | $4,700 | 25.9 | -0.6 | 17.9 | 3.2 | 17% | 3% | 0.69 | 0.14 | 0.67 | 0.09 | 29 | 21.9 | 5.09 | 21.0 | 4.46 | |
| Max Strus | $4,500 | $4,100 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 20.9 | -8.7 | 17% | -9% | 0.74 | -0.29 | 0.70 | -0.27 | 29 | 17.3 | 3.84 | 16.5 | 4.02 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,400 | $10,200 | 33.4 | 1.6 | 42.2 | 13.5 | 25% | 7% | 1.26 | 0.33 | 1.29 | 0.30 | 41 | 54.4 | 5.78 | 54.7 | 5.36 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,600 | $4,800 | 20.0 | -0.9 | 20.4 | 2.6 | 19% | -4% | 1.02 | 0.19 | 0.97 | 0.27 | 22 | 20.5 | 4.45 | 19.5 | 4.07 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,100 | $7,500 | 34.6 | -5.1 | 40.1 | -4.6 | 25% | 3% | 1.16 | 0.05 | 1.16 | 0.04 | 31 | 36.8 | 5.19 | 36.4 | 4.85 | |
| Caleb Martin | $5,600 | $5,500 | 29.3 | -1.3 | 20.9 | 6.8 | 14% | 1% | 0.71 | 0.28 | 0.72 | 0.25 | 26 | 17.7 | 3.16 | 17.7 | 3.21 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,700 | $4,600 | 31.2 | -9.2 | 26.9 | -9.3 | 16% | 1% | 0.86 | -0.06 | 0.84 | -0.04 | 24 | 19.8 | 4.21 | 19.1 | 4.15 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $4,000 | $4,000 | 16.4 | 5.1 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 17% | -2% | 0.67 | 0.23 | 0.63 | 0.19 | 19 | 12.4 | 3.11 | 11.6 | 2.91 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,200 | $3,600 | 18.0 | -7.9 | 12.0 | -3.3 | 12% | -1% | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.68 | 0.30 | 12 | 7.0 | 2.20 | 6.9 | 1.93 | |
| Cody Zeller | $3,000 | $3,600 | 14.4 | -5.5 | 13.5 | -5.6 | 18% | -6% | 0.94 | -0.05 | 0.94 | -0.06 | 7 | 6.3 | 2.11 | 6.3 | 1.74 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Milwaukee Bucks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $8,100 | $8,300 | 32.6 | 3.4 | 40.1 | 2.2 | 24% | 0% | 1.23 | -0.05 | 1.19 | -0.06 | 39 | 44.3 | 5.47 | 42.0 | 5.06 | |
| Grayson Allen | $4,400 | $4,200 | 27.4 | 3.3 | 20.7 | -1.4 | 14% | -1% | 0.75 | -0.13 | 0.74 | -0.16 | 30 | 18.1 | 4.10 | 17.4 | 4.15 | |
| Khris Middleton | $7,200 | $7,700 | 24.3 | 8.7 | 29.3 | 10.7 | 26% | 1% | 1.21 | 0.01 | 1.16 | -0.01 | 37 | 38.9 | 5.40 | 37.0 | 4.80 | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,400 | $12,000 | 32.1 | -7.5 | 57.4 | -20.0 | 37% | -10% | 1.79 | -0.27 | 1.72 | -0.31 | 37 | 58.7 | 5.65 | 56.0 | 4.67 | |
| Brook Lopez | $6,400 | $7,900 | 30.4 | 4.1 | 32.6 | 2.3 | 19% | 2% | 1.07 | -0.06 | 1.11 | -0.06 | 37 | 29.1 | 4.55 | 29.4 | 3.72 | |
| Bobby Portis | $6,100 | $5,700 | 26.0 | -3.4 | 30.5 | -1.5 | 21% | -1% | 1.17 | 0.11 | 1.11 | 0.16 | 18 | 16.5 | 2.70 | 15.9 | 2.80 | |
| Joe Ingles | $3,500 | $3,800 | 22.7 | -2.5 | 17.3 | -0.7 | 12% | 2% | 0.76 | 0.06 | 0.73 | 0.05 | 18 | 11.5 | 3.27 | 10.9 | 2.86 | |
| Pat Connaughton | $3,900 | $4,500 | 23.7 | 0.2 | 17.6 | 10.6 | 13% | 5% | 0.74 | 0.44 | 0.73 | 0.42 | 20 | 12.9 | 3.31 | 12.5 | 2.78 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
I really hope a lot of you were able to catch game four of this series live. The highlights don’t do the performance from Jimmy Butler justice. He was unstoppable on offense, he was making big plays on defense, and he had the entire Heat arena rocking. It was one of the best playoff performances I have seen in a long time. The Heat are now one game away from advancing to the second round, although they come into this game as 12.5-point underdogs.
We have learned not to count out Butler and the Heat, but they are easily the biggest underdog on the board. Outside of a couple of players, I expect ownership on Miami to be fairly low. We’ll start with Gabe Vincent, who has scored 22 or more fantasy points three times in this series. Kyle Lowry has struggled with consistency, but he has scored 25 and 21 fantasy points the last two games. With Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo both out, there’s a path for Vincent and/or Lowry to play minutes in the upper 20s.
I have been treating Butler as a core play on every slate thus far (with the exception of game two). I’m torn on what to do tonight. The form is great and even though he projects well, I’m not sure his ownership will be very high. Big spreads are scary in the playoffs. I will note that if the Heat are going to keep this game close, they will need another big outing from their superstar. Max Strus played 17 minutes in game four and scored negative fantasy points. I’m not even mad, I’m impressed.
Kevin Love has started the last two games and has averaged 21 minutes and 23 fantasy points. He didn’t play a single fourth quarter minute in either game, so there’s a little meat on the bone in terms of his minute upside. Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson will continue to soak up more minutes thanks to injuries, but I like them a bit more at home. Bam Adebayo has been quiet in this series, but his price continues to get cheaper and cheaper. I like pairing him with Butler in tournament lineups.
It’s make or break time for the Bucks. They have to feel like they let game four slip, as they were up double digits with about six minutes to play. Despite being down one to three, they are only +115 to win the series. The market still believes in Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked great in his first game back from injury, scoring 66 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. He racked up a triple-double in the process. He’s far too cheap on DraftKings ($10,400) tonight.
Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton both got off to slow starts in game four, but they finished with 35 fantasy points apiece. They both feel a tad overpriced because their salaries jumped up when Giannis missed games two and three. I don’t mind them as tournament plays, but do prefer Giannis if spending up on a player from the Bucks. I’m not too interested in the value plays here, especially since we have three other games to choose from. Brook Lopez broke the slate the other night, but had struggled in the first three games. I’m fine taking my chances with a fade again tonight.
NBA DFS Targets
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Tournament Targets – Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez (DK)
Salary Savers – Gabe Vincent, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love
Game 5: Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Series: Warriors 2 – Kings 2
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: GSW 123 – SAC 126
- Game 2: GSW 106 – SAC 114
- Game 3: SAC 97 – GSW 114
- Game 4: SAC 125 – GSW 126
Notable Injuries
None
Golden State Warriors Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,500 | $9,900 | 34.7 | 4.8 | 50.3 | -3.2 | 30% | -3% | 1.45 | -0.26 | 1.36 | -0.24 | 38 | 50.1 | 5.27 | 46.0 | 4.64 | |
| Jordan Poole | $5,000 | $6,200 | 30.0 | -7.2 | 32.5 | -6.5 | 28% | -1% | 1.08 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 0.13 | 26 | 27.3 | 5.47 | 25.8 | 4.16 | |
| Klay Thompson | $6,800 | $7,200 | 33.0 | 4.1 | 34.2 | 0.6 | 26% | -6% | 1.04 | -0.10 | 0.97 | -0.08 | 37 | 36.3 | 5.34 | 33.8 | 4.69 | |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,700 | $7,400 | 32.2 | 2.6 | 31.5 | 3.4 | 21% | 0% | 0.98 | 0.02 | 0.98 | 0.05 | 37 | 34.6 | 5.16 | 33.9 | 4.58 | |
| Kevon Looney | $5,700 | $6,300 | 23.9 | 5.6 | 24.8 | 6.6 | 10% | -1% | 1.04 | 0.03 | 1.07 | 0.03 | 26 | 25.8 | 4.53 | 26.1 | 4.15 | |
| Draymond Green | $6,300 | $7,300 | 31.5 | 0.4 | 30.4 | 2.7 | 13% | 3% | 0.96 | 0.07 | 0.96 | 0.08 | 31 | 31.1 | 4.94 | 31.0 | 4.25 | |
| Donte DiVincenzo | $4,000 | $4,400 | 26.3 | -7.5 | 23.4 | -5.3 | 15% | -2% | 0.89 | 0.07 | 0.87 | 0.10 | 18 | 15.8 | 3.95 | 15.2 | 3.46 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Sacramento Kings Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $8,800 | $10,000 | 33.4 | 5.1 | 42.0 | 13.3 | 29% | 4% | 1.26 | 0.18 | 1.23 | 0.20 | 39 | 48.0 | 5.45 | 47.3 | 4.73 | |
| Kevin Huerter | $5,600 | $5,700 | 29.4 | -2.1 | 27.2 | -7.0 | 20% | -4% | 0.92 | -0.18 | 0.90 | -0.13 | 30 | 27.1 | 4.83 | 26.5 | 4.64 | |
| Harrison Barnes | $5,300 | $5,600 | 32.5 | 1.3 | 24.9 | -1.4 | 17% | -2% | 0.77 | -0.07 | 0.75 | -0.03 | 36 | 26.5 | 5.00 | 26.1 | 4.66 | |
| Keegan Murray | $4,800 | $5,100 | 29.8 | -8.1 | 23.3 | -6.2 | 16% | -2% | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.77 | 0.01 | 22 | 16.2 | 3.36 | 16.1 | 3.16 | |
| Domantas Sabonis | $9,300 | $9,100 | 34.6 | 2.0 | 48.5 | -7.6 | 21% | 0% | 1.40 | -0.29 | 1.34 | -0.24 | 37 | 51.6 | 5.54 | 49.3 | 5.41 | |
| Malik Monk | $5,900 | $6,300 | 22.3 | 6.0 | 24.4 | 5.5 | 25% | -1% | 1.09 | -0.04 | 1.05 | -0.02 | 27 | 27.7 | 4.69 | 26.4 | 4.20 | |
| Davion Mitchell | $4,900 | $4,900 | 18.1 | 5.9 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 14% | -2% | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.01 | 24 | 14.9 | 3.05 | 15.1 | 3.07 | |
| Trey Lyles | $3,800 | $3,700 | 16.9 | -2.6 | 15.8 | -2.1 | 17% | -1% | 0.94 | 0.02 | 0.92 | -0.03 | 16 | 13.6 | 3.57 | 13.3 | 3.59 | |
| Alex Len | $3,700 | $3,600 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 13% | 1% | 1.00 | -0.01 | 1.05 | -0.05 | 9 | 7.8 | 2.11 | 7.9 | 2.19 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
Outside of game three, this series has provided some tremendous fourth quarter action. It looked like the Warriors were going to run away with game four, but the Kings kept battling back and had a shot to win the game at the buzzer. While it would have been fun to see the Kings take a big lead, we all deserve a seven-game series. If you are like myself and don’t have a rooting interest in this series, root for the series to go to game seven. Can you imagine the environment in Sacramento if that happens?
Davion Mitchell and the Kings have done a nice job of keeping Stephen Curry in check this series. While he has topped 40 fantasy points in every game, he has only topped 50 fantasy points one time. I’ll never talk anyone out of playing Curry in tournaments tonight, but I do prefer Ja Morant at a similar price point. Klay Thompson has been steady in this series, topping 35 fantasy points in three of the first four games. He’s viable on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Warriors decided to bring Draymond Green off the bench in game four, apparently because of the suggestion of Green. He liked the way the team played in game three and wanted to keep that momentum going. That was the story anyway. Only time will tell if he starts or comes off the bench tonight. The playing time for himself and Jordan Poole shouldn’t change much regardless of who starts. Green is more of a tournament flier, while Poole stands out as a value on DraftKings ($5,000).
After being away from the team for a long time, it’s been impressive to see Andrew Wiggins play big minutes and play well in the process. He has scored 30, 30, 36, and 44 fantasy points in the first four games, so he seems to be trending in the right direction. Kevon Looney averaged 40 fantasy points in the two games at home, so we’ll see if he can keep that going now that the series shifts back to Sacramento. There are a lot of good, but not standout targets from Golden State tonight.
We got reports that De’Aaron Fox fractured his finger and that he was not expected to play in this game. That was quickly turned into him being questionable and now he is fully expected to play. The injury might impact his efficiency, but I’m willing to take the chance on him at a price of only $8,800 on DraftKings. He’s had a tremendous series thus far. Malik Monk has been solid in three of the four games. He’s volatile, but has plenty of upside. Davion Mitchell is a wild card, as his playing time hinges on his impact on the game.
Kevin Huerter hasn’t found much success in this series, averaging only 20 fantasy points per game. This could be a nice bounce-back spot, but I wish he was cheaper. Harrison Barnes didn’t play great in the road games, but did score 31 and 28 fantasy points in the two home games. Keegan Murray caught fire in game four, but I’m not chasing that production. He had more fantasy points in game four than he did in the first three games combined. Domantas Sabonis is basically tonight’s Karl-Anthony Towns in that he hasn’t been great in the series, but he’s very cheap for his skill level. I prefer Fox on DraftKings, but I do like Sabonis on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Targets
Elite Plays – Jordan Poole (DK), Andrew Wiggins, De’Aaron Fox (DK), Domantas Sabonis (FD)
Tournament Targets – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole (FD), De’Aaron Fox (FD), Domantas Sabonis (DK), Malik Monk
Salary Savers – Gary Payton, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Image Credit: Getty Images