NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/14/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-14 23:57:14

Big 10 game slate today with the Kings and Warriors on a back-to-back so we’ll see Klay Thompson get the night off with his usual rest on b2bs. Beal remains out for the Wizards and he’ll be joined by Porzingis while LaMelo Ball has a chance to return for Charlotte and there’s plenty of other unknowns to discover as we get closer to lock.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Bradley Beal is questionable to return from his hamstring strain but if he remains out look for Corey Kispert to continue to start. Kristaps Porzingis and Monte Morris are also questionable for Washington and this game starts at 9PM EST so hopefully we learn their statuses early as there could be some major swapportunity (has this word been coined yet?) if any or all of the three Q guys end up out. Keep Jordan Goodwin, Will Barton (revenge game!), and Daniel Gafford on your swap radar while Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma would also be great plays if some or all of the Q guys sit. (Update: Beal and Porzingis are OUT, Morris is IN)

• DAngelo Russell is questionable with a knee contusion and if out we would likely see Jaylen Nowell or Austin Rivers start at PG with Nowell being by far the better play even if he comes off the bench. With no Russell we’d see even bigger usage bumps for Edwards and Gobert while Kyle Anderson is still pretty cheap and he’d be an even better mid-range target. This game starts at 10PM EST so we likely won’t know Russell’s status until after lock so I like taking a few players from the 9PM and later games to allow yourself the chance to make swaps once we get the WSH and MIN news.

• Stephen Curry is questionable with knee soreness and if he sits on the b2b then I’d consider Jordan Poole the must play of the slate on all sites while Draymond Green would also be a more appealing play. (Update: Curry is IN)

• Trae Young is questionable with lower back tightness and if out the Hawks could go a few different ways with his replacement in the starting lineup as Bogdan Bogdanovic will be available after sitting last game and Aaron Holiday could also start after going for almost 40 FP in 29 bench minutes last game. Overall Young sitting would put a few cheap Hawks in play for value with Bogdanovic and Capela being my favorite ATL plays in DFS. (Update: Trae is IN)

• LaMelo Ball was upgraded to questionable around noon and there is optimism he returns to the lineup tonight. If available it would likely move Jalen McDaniels back to the bench and hurt the ceilings of guys like Rozier and Oubre. (Update: Ball is IN)

• Jalen Brunson is questionable with a foot contusion and if out I’d consider Immanuel Quickley a top value of the slate as the likely starter at PG while Barrett and Randle would also be more appealing plays seeing usage bumps. (Update: Brunson is IN)

• Josh Richardson and Keita Bates-Diop are questionable for the Spurs so Roby or Sochan would start at PF if KBD sits while Vassell, Branham, and the other active guards/wings would all help cover Richardson’s minutes if out. (Update: Richardson and KBD are IN)

• Kevin Huerter is questionable with ankle soreness on the b2b and if out we’d likely see Malik Monk start and SG and be a solid play. (Update: Huerter is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Klay Thompson will sit on the b2b and with Andrew Wiggins still out Jordan Poole will definitely start while the SF starter could be Anthony Lamb, Jonathan Kuminga, or even Moses Moody. Thankfully this is an early game and we will have their official injury report before lock and find out if any other starters will rest on the b2b. (Update: DiVincenzo will start with Poole)

• Jimmy Butler is resting on the front end of tomorrow’s b2b so look for Max Strus to start for him while Lowry, Herro, and Adebayo get nice usage and ceiling bumps having to carry most of the offense.

• OG Anunoby is out for Toronto so Gary Trent should continue to start and be a solid play for the price while VanVleet and Siakam have higher ceilings.

• The Spurs remain without Jakob Poeltl but will also be without Zach Collins and Romeo Langford, so the center position will be handled by Bassey, Sochan, Roby, and Dieng and I’d consider Bassey the highest upside play from that group especially if he starts.

• With Beal and Porzingis out look for Kispert and Gafford to start with Gafford joining Bassey and Duren as solid value centers. Monte Morris will return so Goodwin goes back to the bench.

• Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic are back for ATL after sitting last game while Collins and Murray remain out so Trent Forrest and AJ Griffin should continue to start. Their opponents the Magic remain without the usual group of injured guys so Fultz and Moe Wagner should continue to start.

• John Wall will sit tonight on the front end of the b2b tomorrow so Jackson, Mann, Kennard, and George will all absorb his minutes.

• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is out for OKC so I’d expect Pokusevski to start at C with Bazley and Muscala helping behind him.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• With Wiggins and Klay out Jordan Poole ($6,700) is looking at a nice usage bump and has 40+ FP upside today in a projected high scoring, close matchup with the Pacers making him the first guy I’m locking in to cash games especially at his $1,100 discount to his DK price. Draymond Green ($6,000) is also a solid play at that price who could see reduced ownership coming off b2b games of under 20 FP. If Anthony Lamb ($3,800) or Jonathan Kuminga ($4,400) start at SF I’d consider them a top value play of the slate.

• Gary Trent ($5,800) is the next guy I’m locking in to my main build as he is looking at huge minutes with Anunoby out and draws a nice matchup with SAC tonight. Trent saw 43 minutes last game as the starter for Anunoby and has gone for 28+ FP in three of his last four games so I think he’s too cheap for a guy with a 5x value floor and big time upside if his shot is falling tonight.

• With Butler out for Miami I’m liking Caleb Martin ($5,000) as a solid value play today as he is seeing huge minutes lately and has averaged over 26 FPPG over his last three games and should score at least that many FP tonight against OKC. Max Strus ($4,900) is also in play for value but does have a lower floor than Martin while Victor Oladipo ($4,000) should see 23+ minutes with no Butler and is a fine value option if you need the savings.

• I could see Charles Bassey ($5,100) being a popular play tonight with Poeltl and Collins out but he’s more of a GPP play for me on FD as the Spurs still have other big men available and I would rather spend a little more salary for someone like Mitchell Robinson ($5,800) or Clint Capela ($6,200) who have higher floors and safer minutes than Bassey.

• I also want to mention Zach LaVine ($7,300) as a solid play for the price as he’s seen a $300 price reduction after a couple down games and a home matchup with the Knicks and Dosunmu likely out is a nice recipe for a big bounceback game at a great price for LaVine.

• Some other strong plays for the price on FD include Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300), Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,100), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,000), Lu Dort ($5,300), Jalen Williams ($5,200), Tim Hardaway ($5,800), Coby White ($3,900), and Bruce Brown ($5,600).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Charles Bassey ($4,100) is a different story compared to FD as he’s $1k cheaper and the bigger price gap between him and guys like Robinson and Capela put him squarely in play for cash game consideration at C especially if he draws the start. Jalen Duren ($4,100) is my favorite pivot at the same price as Bassey as he should be lower-owned, see similar minutes, and draws one of the best matchups for centers in Charlotte.

• Gary Trent ($5,700) remains a cash game lock for me at that price while Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,000) is also looking like a cash game lock at a $1k discount to FD looking at 33+ minutes and potentially a huge usage rate if Young remains out.

• Jalen Williams ($4,300) and Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,300) are both in play for value especially with Robinson-Earl out as only Bazley, Omoruyi, and Muscala are the available bigs behind them today. Both should have a safe 5x value floor with 7x+ value ceilings especially with this game projected to stay pretty close with just a -3 spread.

• I haven’t mentioned Jordan Poole ($7,800) yet as his price is just a bit too high compared to FD so unless the Warriors sit Curry (questionable) along with Klay on the b2b I likely won’t use him on DK in cash games. Draymond Green ($6,200) is still cheap enough to consider for cash games while Anthony Lamb ($4,400) is my preferred play to Kuminga ($5,200) especially if Lamb starts at SF.

• Caleb Martin ($5,300) remains a solid value option along with Max Strus ($5,300) and Kyle Lowry ($6,500) is getting cheap enough to consider him for cash games as he should be looking at a 30 FP floor and has shown 40+ FP upside in close games when Butler sits.

• Zach LaVine ($7,400) remains cheap enough to consider for cash games and I’d also consider Alex Caruso ($3,600) a viable cash game value play as Dosunmu is likely out so Caruso should start at PG and easily pay off that price at a nice $1k discount to FD.

• More guys I like for the price on DK include Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300), Nikola Vucevic ($7,200), PJ Washington ($5,500), Bruce Brown ($5,500), Tim Hardaway ($5,400), Lu Dort ($5,000), Coby White ($3,700), and Aaron Nesmith ($3,900).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn