NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/2/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-02 23:46:03

After a one game break yesterday we’re back with a big eleven game slate to end the week that will see the season debuts of Khris Middleton and TJ Warren and possibly Bogdan Bogdanovic as well. Jimmy Butler could also return from his long absence while CJ McCollum should be back from his illness and we still have a bunch of big names out and a few new questionable guys so let’s get right in to another crazy DFS NBA Friday slate.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jimmy Butler is questionable with his knee soreness and it seems likely he returns today which would make it hard to trust any of the Heat starters to have a ceiling game and Lowry, Herro, and Adebayo are priced up after their production increase when Butler was out. Dewayne Dedmon and Nikola Jovic are also questionable and if out we’d likely see Haslem get some minutes while Martin, Strus, Adebayo, and Highsmith would all absorb their minutes too.

• Clint Capela is questionable with foot soreness and if out we would see Onyeka Okongwu draw the start and be a top value play. Bogdan Bogdanovic could make his season debut and is questionable to play but I wouldn’t be looking to use him in DFS quite yet as I’m sure he’ll start on some kind of minutes limit. Jalen Johnson is also questionable with ankle soreness and if out we could see a lot of minutes for AJ Griffin, Vit Krejci, and Jarrett Culver as the Hawks are already thin at forward that we’ll get to later. Adding to the already thin forward situation is Frank Kaminsky being questionable with a foot sprain.

• Trae Young was downgraded to questionable around 1PM so the Hawks could be extremely thin today while Dejounte Murray would be my favorite play of the entire slate if Young ends up out

• Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with groin soreness and if out we would likely see TJ McConnell draw the start and be a top value play while all the starters would get nice usage bumps in the projected highest scoring game of the slate.

• Jamal Murray was downgraded to Q around 2:30PM so Hyland or Smith would likely start at PG if he’s out while Nikola Jokic would have an even higher usage rate and Bruce Brown would be a more appealing play as well.

• Tobias Harris is questionable with an illness so we could see Korkmaz, House, or Thybulle start for him while Milton, Melton, and Embiid would all get usage bumps if Harris sits.

• Mo Bamba is questionable with back spasms so Bol Bol would be looking at most of the center minutes if he remains out with Moe Wagner as his top backup.

• Kevin Love was upgraded from D to Q and if he is available he’ll help cover some PF/C minutes.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Khris Middleton is the biggest addition to today’s projected lineups as he’s set to make his season debut for the Bucks and I’d expect him to see about 20-25 minutes so I won’t be looking to use him at his current salaries. Jevon Carter likely moves to the bench and is off the DFS radar while Jrue and Giannis will take usage and ceiling hits.

• TJ Warren will also make his season debut for the Nets and he’ll likely see 10-15 minutes off the bench while Ben Simmons remains out with his knee injury so look for Joe Harris to start again while Irving and Durant will continue to carry most of the offense.

• Herb Jones joins Brandon Ingram on the sidelines for the Pelicans today while CJ McCollum and Naji Marshall are on track to return so Jose Alvarado is off my radar while Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson are still strong plays but won’t have as high of ceilings with McCollum back. Dyson Daniels is a strong candidate to start for Jones and if so he would be a pretty strong value play who has gone for over 20 FP in four of his last five games off the bench.

• The Spurs remain without Jakob Poeltl and Jeremy Sochan and will likely also be without Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson leaving them with 11 players available today. Bates-Diop and Collins should start again while Langford and Roby will be very busy off the bench.

• The Hawks will be without John Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Trent Forrest, and Justin Holiday so we should see AJ Griffin start at SF while Jalen Johnson could start at PF if he plays through his Q tag otherwise we could see Krejci or Culver draw the start. With Capela also iffy the Hawks could be a top team to target for value depending on who starts while Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are looking at big time usage bumps with Collins and Hunter out and both should be considered top spend-ups today.

• The Magic remain without Wendell Carter, Chuma Okeke, and Jalen Suggs and will also be without Gary Harris today with a hamstring strain. Even if Bamba ends up out as well Orlando will still have 11 players available in a tough road matchup in Cleveland so I’m not really looking to target any ORL players currently but Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Bol Bol will have to carry most of the offense and all three are decent GPP plays.

• Dennis Schroder is out for the Lakers so Patrick Beverley will almost certainly start while Westbrook and Nunn will at PG as well.

• Torrey Craig is out for the Suns so we’ll see a new name join their starting lineup in Lee, Shamet, Washington, or Wainright the likely candidates.

• Some other lineup news of note includes Rui Hachimura remaining out, Terry Rozier back from his one game absence, Lamar Stevens on track to return from his four game absence, Michael Porter remaining out for DEN, Chris Paul remaining out for PHO, Jarrett Allen out still for CLE, and who starts between Young and Trent for TOR.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• The Jazz have one of the higher team totals of the slate at home in a great matchup with the Pacers and Collin Sexton ($5,100) is jumping out as a top p/$ play today as he’s still too cheap for a starting PG seeing 30+ minutes and he’s gone for 27-34 FP in five straight games. With a likely 5x value floor and 7-8x ceiling Sexton is the first player I’m locking in to cash games today.

• Cameron Payne ($6,000) remains at a great price and draws a nice matchup at home against Houston and with Booker going off lately for Phoenix it has kept Payne’s price low and if HOU can keep this game competitive late I think Payne will finally break 30 FP again and possible\y 40 FP if he can shoot better than the 5 for 20 over his last two games.

• The Spurs are on track to have just 10 players available so Keita Bates-Diop ($4,200) is looking like an excellent value play as he should push for 30+ minutes as a starter again. Zach Collins ($5,600) saw an $1,100 price bump from last game but is still cheap enough to consider for value while Romeo Langford ($4,000) and Isaiah Roby ($4,600) are in play for GPPs as there is a chance the Spurs get blown out and they get more run than usual off the bench especially with Richardson and McDermott likely out.

• Bruce Brown ($6,100), Trey Murphy ($5,700), and Royce ONeale ($5,800) are all strong mid-range targets who are benefiting from the absences of Porter, Ingram, and Simmons respectively. They are all averaging 34+ minutes over their last few games and projected for at least 5x value today so consider one or two of these guys to fill out your SG/SF/PF spots.

• Some other names I like for the price include Jalen McDaniels ($4,500), AJ Griffin ($4,000), Joe Harris ($4,800), Dyson Daniels ($4,400), and Klay Thompson ($6,000).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Keita Bates-Diop ($3,900) and Zach Collins ($4,900) come at price discounts to FD and one if not both will be in most cash game lineups today with KBP being my preferred play for the price. Isaiah Roby ($3,100) and Romeo Langford ($3,200) remain in play just based on their prices and likely 20+ minute floors.

• Joe Harris ($4,000) is $800 cheaper than FD and has seen 37 and 35 minutes over his last two games and remains a solid value target today with Simmons still out.

• Collin Sexton ($5,500) is still at a great price to consider him a top cash game target while Bruce Brown ($5,900), Trey Murphy ($5,700), and Royce ONeale ($5,600) all remain solid cash game targets as well.

• A few slightly pricier plays I really like are Evan Mobley ($7,000), Keldon Johnson ($7,200), and Jordan Clarkson ($7,100) while some other cheap plays to consider include Dyson Daniels ($4,500), Jalen McDaniels ($4,800), Dean Wade ($3,800), AJ Griffin ($4,500), Andrew Nembhard ($3,700), TJ McConnell ($3,800), Patrick Williams ($3,900), and Ayo Dosunmu ($3,700).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn