NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 12/30/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-30 23:59:01

We’re ending the week with a pretty unique nine game slate as 8 players between the Magic and Pistons are serving suspensions today with 6 coming from the Magic. Orlando will have the league minimum eight players available today so expect a ton of ownership to go to their starters as most will play 40+ minutes while Killian Hayes and Hamidou Diallo are serving suspensions for Detroit so Alec Burks gets a big boost in usage and likely ownership after going for almost 50 FP last game. Only Toronto is on a back-to-back so we’ll get their first injury report later today but expect to see at least Fred VanVleet on there after he sat yesterday. Also, Happy Birthday to LeBron James who is celebrating his 38th birthday today for an added narrative wrinkle if you’re in to that.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Bradley Beal is questionable after sitting last game and if out again look for Kispert or Avdija to start for him while Kuzma and Porzingis will get nice usage bumps against a depleted Orlando frontcourt. Taj Gibson is also questionable but his minutes would just be absorbed by Hachimura and the other bigs. (Update: Beal is OUT)

• Fred VanVleet will likely be listed as questionable on Toronto’s first injury report and if out we could see Koloko join the starting five again with Scottie Barnes playing point. Malachi Flynn saw 30 minutes off the bench yesterday and would be in play for $3,800 on DK if FVV sits while Barnes, Siakam, Anunoby, and Trent all get nice usage bumps as well. Precious Achiuwa can be considered Q as well but seems to have a pretty good chance to return today to help at center. (Update: VanVleet and Achiuwa are OUT)

• LeBron James is questionable but I’d expect him to play on his birthday as the Lakers don’t play again until Monday, but if he somehow ends up sitting today then Russell Westbrook becomes cash game viable while all the starters are in play for value depending on your positional needs. Lonnie Walker is now questionable too so Reaves and the other wings would get bumps and absorb his minutes if out. (Update: LBJ is IN, Walker is OUT)

• Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Bruce Brown are questionable for Denver, and if all three are out I would consider Bones Hyland a top cash game play, Michael Porter a great mid-range salary cash game play, and Zeke Nnaji a pretty decent value play after seeing 30 minutes last game with all three out. If Gordon plays but Murray and Brown sit then Hyland is still a top play but I would be less-inclined to target Porter and Nnaji.

• Jusuf Nurkic is questionable now so Drew Eubanks would likely start for him if out and he’d be a great value play especially for $3,400 on DK.

• Patrick Williams, Coby White, and Derrick Jones are questionable for Chicago but none of their statuses will change too much for DFS on a slate with plenty of other better games and players to target. Javonte Green would likely start if Williams sits and he’d get more minutes if Jones is out too while White sitting would just give more minutes to Caruso, Dragic, and Dosunmu. (Update: Williams and White are IN, Jones is OUT)

• Herb Jones is questionable due to conditioning after missing time with an illness and if out Naji Marshall would likely start for him with Daniels and Graham also helping more at SG.

• DeAndre Hunter is questionable for Atlanta and if out AJ Griffin and Bogdan Bogdanovic would handle most of his minutes with one likely starting. (Update: Hunter is OUT)

• Kyle Anderson is questionable with back spasms and we should continue to see Austin Rivers start if he remains out. Rudy Gobert is questionable with an illness now and if out Naz Reid would start at C and have to be in consideration for cash games at his current salaries on both FD and DK. (Update: Gobert is OUT, Anderson is IN)

• Caleb Martin is questionable for Miami so Max Strus would likely start if he’s out while Oladipo and D. Robinson would see a slight bump in minutes too.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Jrue Holiday is out again joining Khris Middleton who is still out so Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton likely start again for them while Giannis is again the top spend up of the slate looking at 40+ minutes with an 80+ FP ceiling. George Hill is likely out now too so Jevon Carter is a much more appealing value play looking at more PG minutes.

• With just 8 players available for Orlando the usual four starters (Banchero, F. Wagner, Fultz, Bol) should get huge minutes but the 5th starter could be Schofield, Ross, Houstan, or even Kevon Harris so whoever ends up starting from those four would be a pretty strong value play. For Detroit I’d expect Alec Burks to start for the suspended Hayes and be a top target today while Bey, Knox, and McGruder will all help cover the suspended Diallo’s minutes.

• Tyrese Maxey is on track to play after his long absence with an ankle injury but I wouldn’t look to play him in DFS as he’ll likely be eased back in after missing so much time and could even come off the bench his first few games. His presence takes guys like Melton and Milton off the DFS radar and does take a bit of usage from Harden.

• Booker, Shamet, and Payne remain out for Phoenix so Landale, Lee, and Washington continue to benefit the most while Paul and Ayton keep their higher ceilings.

• Capela remains out for Atlanta so Onyeka Okongwu will continue to start and is a solid play in a nice matchup with the Lakers especially for $5,300 on DK.

• The Pelicans could get Herb Jones back today but will likely be without Larry Nance who is doubtful so Naji Marshall should continue to see solid minutes and would likely start if Herb ends up out too.

• Curry, Wiggins, J. Green, and Iguodala remain out for GSW so Poole and DiVincenzo should continue to start while Kuminga continues to get solid minutes off the bench.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,900) should be about $13k today with Jrue and Middleton both out and with the highest ceiling of the slate he’s the first guy I’m locking in to cash games. Jevon Carter ($3,700) and Pat Connaughton ($3,900) disappointed last game in the same situation but remain crazy cheap and should be solid value plays if they can get going early and not let guys like Ingles, Matthews, and Beauchamp eat in to their time.

• Pretty much every lineup today will have some Orlando exposure but picking which guys will be crucial as we can only use four max and there’s still a ton of other great plays in other games so using 2-3 might be the better play then a full stack. Right now I’m leaning Paolo Banchero ($8,500), Franz Wagner ($6,600), and Bol Bol ($6,500) as my preferred targets, as Banchero is the clear highest upside player for them and should have a massive usage rate today. Franz and Bol are also looking at huge minutes and have higher ceilings than the other Magic players today especially Bol who is the only real center available today with Moe, Carter, and Bamba all suspended. Markell Fultz ($6,800) is just a bit too expensive and I think he could see the least minutes of the main Magic starters as they are the deepest at guard/wing today compared to PF/C.

• Alec Burks ($5,300) is one of my favorite plays of the slate as he will benefit the most with the Hayes and Diallo suspensions. Burks saw a season-high 30 minutes last game going for almost 50 FP and should see closer to 35 minutes today especially if he starts (Joseph could start but I still prefer Burks). Jaden Ivey ($5,900) and Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,000) will also see slight usage bumps and are fine mid-range targets too.

• Other guys I like for the price today include Damian Lillard ($9,100), Klay Thompson ($7,400), John Collins ($6,300), Onyeka Okongwu ($6,200), Thomas Bryant ($5,700), Bones Hyland ($5,600) if Murray and Brown sit, Damion Lee ($4,400), and Duane Washington ($4,200).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Bol Bol ($4,800) is almost $2k cheaper than FD and should be one of the highest-owned players of the slate on DK as Orlando has basically no other center besides him available today so he could see over 40 minutes and is just way too cheap for the upside he brings today. Terrence Ross ($3,100) and Admiral Schofield ($3,000) are both excellent values today with likely 20+ minutes floors and possibly much more if one ends up starting while Paolo Banchero ($7,800) and Franz Wagner ($6,200) remain my other top ORL targets.

• Onyeka Okongwu ($5,300) comes at a nice $900 discount to FD and has a big ceiling today against the Lakers as this game has the 2nd highest total currently and Okongwu should see 35+ minutes if he stays out of foul trouble and is too cheap for the 40+ FP upside he brings.

• Jalen Duren ($5,400) is another top center value today coming off b2b games over 36 FP and will have carry a bit more offense with Hayes and Diallo out. Alec Burks ($4,400) is looking like a “free square” at that price while Cory Joseph ($3,000) is projecting as a top p/$ play and should draw plenty of ownership if does end up starting but he still brings a pretty low floor no matter how many minutes he sees and I prefer Burks and other value plays to him today.

• Pat Connaughton ($4,200) and Jevon Carter ($3,900) are a couple of those other value plays that I prefer to Joseph and they may lose some ownership after putting up duds last game while Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,900) remains the top play of the slate for me on DK.

• Deandre Ayton ($7,500) is still underpriced with all the Suns injuries and has huge upside against Toronto who just allowed 14 & 17 to Adams last night. Chris Paul ($7,900) is also a super solid play at that price while Damion Lee ($4,200) and Duane Washington ($3,700) are fine value targets.

• Jamal Murray ($7,200) also remains underpriced and would be an elite play if Brown and Gordon both end up out and he plays through his Q tag. Also in that price range is Klay Thompson ($7,100) who is seeing huge minutes lately and has b2b games over 40 FP.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn