NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/9/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-09 22:35:12

Big 10-game Friday slate tonight with a few big new names on the injury report and no teams are on a back-to-back. Rudy Gobert will play his first game in Utah since being traded and Kelly Oubre will try to celebrate his birthday with another big game if you’re in to narratives. The Hawks lost Dejounte Murray for at least a couple weeks while the Nets will get back Ben Simmons and we have a couple top guards in the SAC/CLE game with questionable statuses so there’s plenty of ways this slate could change throughout the day so make sure so stay on top of news and keep checking all the resources provided here!

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Donovan Mitchell is questionable with lower leg soreness and if out I’d be looking to get at least a couple CLE guys in your cash game lineup. Caris LeVert and Darius Garland both score over 1.20 FPPM with Mitchell off the floor (and the other CLE guys out today) so I’d be looking to use LeVert for value even if he doesn’t start for Mitchell while Garland and Allen would be my next targets from CLE.

• DeAaron Fox is questionable with foot soreness and if out we would likely see Davion Mitchell draw the start at PG and he would be one of the highest owned value plays of the slate as he’s pretty much minimum price on both sites. Malik Monk would also be a more appealing play with no Fox as he sees a +6.2% usage bump and if we take Terence Davis, who is also questionable, off the floor that number jumps to +9.5% for Monk and he is 2nd on the team in FPPM at 1.27 in that scenario.

• Kristaps Porzingis and Will Barton are questionable for the Wizards so we would likely see Daniel Gafford start if Porzingis ends up out and he would be a top value play especially on DK for $3,600. With Porzingis and Barton (along with Beal and Hachimura) off the floor Kyle Kuzma leads the team with a 33.5% usage rate while scoring 1.20 FPPM and I would consider him a top play of the slate if just Porzingis is out while Barton also out would just increase his ceiling a bit more. I’d also be looking to use Corey Kispert and/or Deni Avdija for value if Porzingis sits.

• Myles Turner, Isaiah Jackson, and James Johnson are questionable for the Pacers so Jalen Smith could be looking at big minutes and usage at the center spot if both Turner and Jackson end up out while Nesmith and Brissett would handle most of the PF minutes if all three end up out. With all three questionable Pacers off the floor this season Jalen Smith sees a 3.5% usage bump and scores an additional .41 FPPM taking him to 1.51 FPPM production in a 102.2 minute sample size so I would consider him an excellent play if even just Turner sits.

• Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley, and Simone Fontecchio are questionable for the Jazz but Conley is looking closer to probable so I’m considering him in for today. Fontecchio’s 15-20 minutes would be handled by Vanderbilt, Beasley, and Gay so he’s not too important DFS wise today but Markkanen’s status does have big implications. If we assume Conley plays but take Markkanen and Fontecchio off the floor (and Sexton who is out) Jordan Clarkson sees a +5.7% usage bump and scores 1.23 FPPM and would be one of my favorite plays in a projected high scoring, close matchup with Minnesota. Walker Kessler would also be a very strong play if Markkanen sits especially if he draws another start.

• Steven Adams is questionable with shoulder soreness and if out we could see Brandon Clarke start alongside Jackson and he’d be a pretty strong value play especially for $3,900 on DK. Aldama and Tillman would also help more at C if Adams is out.

• DeAndre Hunter and Trent Forrest are questionable to return from their three game absences but if they remain out then AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson would be even better value plays as both are already strong plays with Dejounte Murray out.

• Jose Alvarado is questionable with a rib contusion and if out we would see more Daniels, Graham and Marshall minutes.

• Danuel House is questionable for Philly and if out look for Thybulle and Korkmaz to absorb most of his minutes.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Dejounte Murray is out multiple weeks with an ankle sprain so we should see AJ Griffin or Aaron Holiday start at SG depending on the status of Hunter would likely start at SF if he’s available. Trae Young will have to carry a lot more offense and is one of the highest upside plays of the slate.

• Beverley, James, and Davis are all back for the Lakers after missing last game while Wenyen Gabriel and Juan Toscano-Anderson will both be out so Reaves and Brown will be the top bench forwards.

• Ben Simmons is back for the Nets while Yuta Watanabe is getting closer to a return but will remain out today. Nic Claxton is now out as well so Simmons will likely start at C with Harris remaining in the starting lineup too.

• Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram remain out for the Pelicans so Daniels and Murphy should continue to start.

• The Jazz could go a few different ways with Conley likely back, Sexton out, and Markkanen potentially out with the biggest unknown being who starts between Vanderbilt and Kessler while Malik Beasley would likely start if Markkanen is out.

• Kevin Love and Obi Toppin are the biggest new bench guys out for today so Cedi Osman will get more minutes while all the Knicks PF/C’s will absorb Toppin’s time.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Trae Young ($9,700) isn’t cheap but I’d still consider him a value at that price as he sees a 45.6% usage rate with Murray and Collins off the floor this season while scoring 1.50 FPPM. In a smaller 45 minute sample Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,400) sees the 2nd highest usage at 32.8% and I would consider him a pretty strong value option especially if Hunter and Forrest remain out.

• Rudy Gobert ($7,400) finally broke out with 55+ FP last game and his price only went up $600 and you know he wants to put up a huge game against his former team so he’s my favorite center in cash games at the moment while Anthony Edwards ($8,800) is also still a bit too cheap after averaging over 55 FP in his last three games.

• Markelle Fultz ($4,600) really disappointed last game going for just 6.4 FP and his price has dropped $400 since then so I have to consider him a strong value target again today especially with the likelihood of recency bias lowering his ownership. I’m expecting him to get back to a 20 FP floor today and if can reach 30+ FP as he’s definitely capable of he will smash his current price tag.

• With Beal out Monte Morris ($5,500), Deni Avdija ($5,500), and Corey Kispert ($3,900) are all in play for value depending on your positional needs with Avdija being the highest upside play of the group. If Porzingis ends up out then I’d consider Kispert a top value play at almost minimum price while Daniel Gafford ($5,300) would be a solid play as well although I wish he was a just a bit cheaper.

• The Hornets offer some solid value in Mason Plumlee ($5,500), PJ Washington ($5,900), and Jalen McDaniels ($5,400) as all three have gone for 27+ FP in their last three games with each putting up a 35+ FP game in that stretch too.

• Jalen Smith ($5,400), Buddy Hield ($6,100), and Andrew Nembhard ($5,000) are another solid trio or value options for IND especially if Turner is out while Moe Wagner ($5,600), AJ Griffin ($4,600), Trey Murphy ($6,000), Walker Kessler ($5,300), and Tim Hardaway ($5,700) are some other players I like for the price on FD.

Looking at DraftKings:

• He’s $600 more expensive than FD but I’d still consider Trae Young ($10,300) a top spend up with Murray out while Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,100), Jalen Johnson ($3,800), and AJ Griffin ($4,800) are all solid value options especially if Hunter and Forrest remain out.

• Deni Avdija ($4,800) comes at a $700 discount to FD and is one of my favorite value plays on DK coming off a 33+ FP performance in 38 minutes and would have a big time ceiling if Porzingis and Barton end up out. Keep Daniel Gafford ($3,600) on your radar in case Porzingis sits as he would be a steal at that price.

• Rudy Gobert ($7,200) remains my favorite center play and even though he crept up to $9k Anthony Edwards remains one of the highest upside plays of the slate with KAT out in a projected high scoring, close matchup with Utah.

• Markelle Fultz ($4,800), Jalen Smith ($5,000), Jalen McDaniels ($5,100), Moe Wagner ($5,700), and PJ Washington ($5,800) all remain strong plays for the price and keep Davion Mitchell ($3,200) on your radar in case Fox ends up out as he’d be the top p/$ projected play of the slate along with Caris LeVert ($4,400) in case Donovan Mitchell is out.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn