NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/18/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-18 23:42:06

It’s looking like another wild Wednesday in the NBA as we have a big nine game slate starting at 7:30PM EST, and already in the situation room there are seven questionable players with impact ratings of nine or higher. The Clippers are on a back-to-back and have already ruled Paul George out, and we’re treating Kawhi as doubtful for now, so there’s going to be some nice value from their starters today. The Nuggets are also on a back-to-back so Jamal Murray could get a day off but we’ll see if anyone else has a status when we get their first injury report later. The last game of the night between SAC/LAL has the highest projected total currently and LeBron James is questionable, so hopefully we get his status as soon as possible since his absence would make Westbrook and other cheap Lakers excellent plays. We should get a lot of the injury news before lock as six of the nine games tip off at 8PM or earlier, but make sure to keep checking all of RG’s resources with each new piece of news since the best plays are going to be shifting constantly today.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, and Taurean Prince are questionable for Minnesota and this game tips at 10PM, so hopefully we get this news early as it will open up some excellent plays in DAngelo Russell, Kyle Anderson, and Naz Reid if Gobert/Edwards are both out. (Update: Gobert is OUT, Rivers is now Q)

• I mentioned it already but LeBron James is questionable in the last game of the night, and if out I would consider Russell Westbrook a must play that I would be trying to swap to if the LBJ news comes after lock. Dennis Schroder, Thomas Bryant, and Troy Brown would all get huge usage bumps as well and I would see if I could swap to at least one of them as well.

• Bradley Beal is questionable to return and if he does it would move Kispert back to the bench and hurt the upside of Kuzma/Porzingis. (Update: Beal is IN)

• Kevin Porter is questionable with his foot injury, and if he remains out then KJ Martin should continue to start and be a solid play while all the starters would maintain higher ceilings. (Update: Porter is OUT)

• Kyle Lowry is questionable to return from his knee discomfort, and if active it would take Gabe Vincent off the DFS radar and make the other starters a little less appealing. (Update: Lowry is IN)

• Lauri Markkanen is questionable with his hip contusion, and if out Jarred Vanderbilt would likely start and Walker Kessler would maintain his elite ceiling that he showed last game going for over 55 FP. (Update: Markkanen is IN)

• We’ll get Denver’s first injury report later but there’s a good chance Jamal Murray is at minimum questionable for rest on the b2b, so Bones Hyland could start if he ends up out while Bruce Brown would also get a nice bump in minutes and usage. (Update: Murray is PROBABLE)

• Ivica Zubac is questionable with a knee contusion, and if out we’d likely see Moses Brown start at C as he’s currently listed as “Questionable – G League” so he’ll likely be inactive if Zubac plays but active if he doesn’t.

• Domantas Sabonis is now questionable, and if out all the other starters get huge usage bumps while the center minutes would be handled by Lyles, Metu, and Holmes.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Donovan Mitchell is out with a groin strain so look for Caris LeVert to start for him, and even in a tough matchup with Memphis he’s still cheap enough to consider for cash games. Garland, Mobley, and Allen will all see nice usage bumps as well and are more appealing plays.

• With George, Wall, Kawhi, and Kennard all out for the Clippers I’d expect Nicolas Batum and Amir Coffey to join the starting lineup today, while Mann, Morris, and Zubac will carry most of the offense and all are in play depending on your positional needs in cash games.

• The Mavericks are on track to get Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Green back from long absences, but will remain without Tim Hardaway and Maxi Kleber. Finney-Smith could get his PF starting role back right away or they could ease him in off the bench, but either way he and Green’s presence will take minutes and usage away from guys like Bullock and Bertans.

• Herb Jones is likely still out with his back injury so Dyson Daniels should keep starting alongside the usual four as Zion and Ingram remain out.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• There are so many moving pieces today that checking LineupHQ after each big piece of news is going to be critical to keep up with projection changes, as guys that I list now (around 9AM) could be obsolete by lock time if better value opens up later in the day. With that being said, we can still target some guys that should be great plays no matter what other news breaks today, but just don’t get too attached to anyone early in the day and be ready to make big changes to your cash game lineup once we learn which questionable guys are in or out.

• With Mitchell out for CLE, Caris LeVert ($5,200) should draw the start and see 30+ minutes, and at his current cheapest salary in over two weeks, I will likely use him in my main build regardless of any other news that breaks today. It’s still a tough matchup with Memphis and this game has one of the lowest projected totals of the slate, so I likely won’t be targeting any other CLE players outside of GPPs, but Garland ($8,000) and Mobley ($6,900) do have pretty nice prices for the usage bumps they will see with no Mitchell.

• The center position is loaded with great plays today, but right now it’s hard to ignore Alperen Sengun ($7,500) who draws one of the best matchups against Charlotte and showed his ceiling last game going for 70 FP. His price did increase $900 from last game and there is a chance Porter returns to take some usage away, but if you end up having the salary left for a center in his price range he’d be my top target in cash games. His opponent Mason Plumlee ($7,200) is also a very strong play while Ivica Zubac ($5,700) would be my target if you need a center under $6k.

• With Gobert now out I’m moving Naz Reid ($5,200) to the best p/$ center option today ahead of Sengun.

• IND/OKC is a game that should be targeted in cash games as its sitting at a 240+ total and has some nice plays for each team. For OKC I’m liking Josh Giddey ($7,900) who has gone for 48+ FP in three of his last four games and his salary only went up $200 from last game, while Lu Dort ($5,500) and Jalen Williams ($6,000) are solid mid-range plays. For IND I still like Buddy Hield ($6,700) as the best p/$ target, while Myles Turner ($8,100) has gone for over 50 FP in the last two full games he’s played and can be used at PF as well as C. TJ McConnell ($7,600) went up $1,700 in salary after his huge last game and at that price is only in play in GPPs for me now.

• The Clippers are going to be a nice source of value today, starting with Terance Mann ($5,700) who should be the primary facilitator on offense and still comes at a very reasonable price for his 40+ FP upside he showed a couple games ago. Norman Powell ($6,000) should also be heavily involved even if he comes off the bench, while the previously mentioned Zubac along with Marcus Morris ($5,100) and Nicolas Batum ($4,400) are all in play for cash games depending on your positional needs.

• I will be keeping Russell Westbrook ($8,400) on my radar as he’d be a top play of the slate for me if LeBron gets ruled out, while Dennis Schroder ($5,100) and Troy Brown ($4,400) would be other guys to target and could be very low-owned late swaps if we get the LBJ news after lock.

• Other plays I like for the price include DAngelo Russell ($6,500), Mike Conley ($5,600), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,500), Trey Murphy ($5,200), and Jose Alvarado ($5,000).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Robert Covington ($3,600) and Reggie Jackson ($3,500) are popping as top p/$ plays, as both should see at least 20 minutes even off the bench today, and have a great shot at 6x or better value at their prices. We’ll see what other value opens up today but if you need someone under $4k to fill out your favorite lineup then I would definitely consider either of them. Terance Mann ($5,700) and Ivica Zubac ($5,300) are my other favorite LAC plays for the price.

• Caris LeVert ($5,100) remains at a great price to keep him in cash game consideration, while Evan Mobley ($6,100) comes at an $800 discount to FD and is my next favorite CLE player for the price.

• Walker Kessler ($5,400) is an excellent DK play today as his salary only went up $300 after going for almost 60 FP last game, and FD took notice bumping his price up to $7,900 putting him out of play for me there. Even if Markkanen returns he’s still cheap enough to use in DK cash games, and would be a lock for me if Markkanen ends up out.

• With Gobert now out I’m moving Naz Reid ($4,800) in to cash game must play territory on DK and will likely use both him and Kessler now especially since Reid is PF eligible too.

• TJ McConnell ($5,500) also only saw a huge price increase on FD, while DK only bumped him up $500, so he is definitely in play for cash games having gone for over 35 FP in four straight games and could see 30+ minutes again today even off the bench. Buddy Hield ($6,400) remains a high upside play for IND while Myles Turner ($7,100) is $1k cheaper than FD and is squarely in play for DK cash games at that price.

• More value options to consider today include Kyle Anderson ($5,600), Mike Conley ($5,300), DeAndre Hunter ($5,000), Trey Murphy ($4,900), Lu Dort ($4,800), Eric Gordon ($4,500), Jose Alvarado ($4,400), Keegan Murray ($4,400), and Troy Brown ($3,900).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn