NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/20/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-20 23:57:26

Big nine game slate to end the week with a few major questionable tags, and keep an eye out for the Warriors and Nets first injury report as they are on a back-to-back. The Warriors are going to be very important to today’s slate, as they had an overtime game last night in which all the starters saw between 36 and 43 minutes, so there’s a good chance another starter or two gets a rest day along with Klay who is likely already out. We’re also going to see a new starting center for the Knicks as Mitchell Robinson broke his thumb, and Christian Wood also broke his thumb so Doncic and the other Mavs starters will see big usage bumps and all have higher ceilings now.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Donovan Mitchell is questionable with his groin strain, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they give him another game off especially if the Warriors end up resting some starters. Caris LeVert would likely start if Mitchell sits, and his price did not increase enough on either site after going for around 40 FP in 41 minutes last game. Darius Garland would also be a top play if Mitchell sits as his salaries are also still too cheap. (Update: Mitchell is OUT)

• Nikola Jokic is questionable with hamstring tightness, and if out Jamal Murray would be a top play of the slate especially for $6,600 on DK. Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon would also be more appealing plays while Nnaji or Jordan would likely start at C.

• Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are questionable for Atlanta, so Dejounte Murray could be looking at a huge usage bump if both end up out, but I’d still consider him the top play of the slate if just Trae sits. Murray is at his cheapest salary of the season on DK so he’s already in play if Trae and Bogdan are available, but if Trae sits I’d expect pretty much every cash game lineup to have Murray. John Collins is also at one of his lowest salaries of the season on both sites, so he and the pretty cheap Hunter would be more appealing plays if either of the Q guys sit. (Update: Trae and Bogdan are IN)

• Domantas Sabonis is questionable with his illness that kept him out of last game, and if out again I’d expect Richaun Holmes to start again. Holmes saw 30 minutes as a starter last game and would be a great value play if Sabonis sits again, while DeAaron Fox would get a nice usage bump as the top offensive weapon and be a much more appealing spend up. (Update: Sabonis is IN)

• LeBron James is questionable with ankle soreness, and if out I’d expect Wenyen Gabriel to start and be a great play for the price, as he’s gone for five straight games of 19+ FP off the bench. Russell Westbrook would also be a top play of the slate if James sits as he’d be the clear top offensive weapon, while Schroder and Brown would be in play for value.

• Franz Wagner is questionable for the Magic, so either Ross or Suggs would likely start if he ends up out, and the other starters would all get slight usage bumps. (Update: Wagner is IN)

• Naji Marshall and Herbert Jones are questionable for New Orleans, and if both end up out I would be looking to use at least two of McCollum, Murphy, and Valanciunas in your cash game lineup in a projected close game with Orlando as they would dominate usage. Jose Alvarado would also be in play for value while Dyson Daniels would be looking at 30+ minutes if both sit. (Update: Herb is IN, Naji is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Warriors are resting Curry, Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins on the b2b today, and will also be without Iguodala and Wiseman. JaMychal Green and Jonathan Kuminga are probable to play so at the moment they should have 10 players available. Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, and Kevon Looney seem like locks to start today while Anthony Lamb seems like the most obvious choice to start at SF, and I’d expect either Kuminga or JaMychal to start at PF.

• With Mitchell Robinson out, the Knicks will start either Isaiah Hartenstein or Jericho Sims, so whoever does end up starting would be in play as a strong value option. Julius Randle can also help at center and should get more rebound opportunities with Robinson out.

• The Mavericks are going to have some different looks today as Christian Wood is out with a broken thumb, but Tim Hardaway is on track to return from his two game absence. The got back Finney-Smith and Green last game just in time for this Wood injury, so both will help cover a lot of his minutes, while Dwight Powell is the top center now with Bertans and McGee as other big men options behind him. Doncic and Dinwiddie will have to carry even more of the offense with Wood out and both are in play as high upside cash game plays today.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• With four Warriors starters out now, Jordan Poole ($7,600) becomes a lock play of the slate as he should dominate usage and take all the shots he wants to today. Donte DiVincenzo ($5,100) & Anthony Lamb ($4,700) are my next favorite Warriors to target, while Jonathan Kuminga ($4,500) & Kevon Looney ($5,600) should also easily pay off value, so depending on your positional needs I’d get at least three Warriors in your cash game lineup today as they only have 10 players available.

• Jalen Brunson ($8,600) deserves to be over $9k as he’s gone for 42+ FP in seven of his last eight games, and his price didn’t budge from last game in which he dropped over 46 FP. He is one of the highest MPG and highest usage PGs in the league this year, and with Robinson out he will see an even bigger usage rate, and today’s projected close matchup with Atlanta is just too good of a spot for me to fade him in cash games at his current salary.

• With Wood out for Dallas we’re going to see Luka Doncic ($12,200) and Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,800) have to carry even more of the offense, and I will be looking to use at least one if not both of them in my main build. I’m not going to be targeting Dwight Powell ($3,800) even at his cheap salary and more secure role at center, as there is higher floor value out there today, but I will consider Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800) and Reggie Bullock ($4,700) for value as both should see 30+ minutes at solid prices.

• Like Brunson, Josh Giddey ($8,000) is deserving of a salary closer to $9k as he’s averaging over 45 FPPG in his last five games and his salary only went up $100 from last game. Giddey draws a great matchup with the Kings today as this game currently has the second highest projected total of the slate with just a 3.5 point spread, and this might be the last game for awhile we can use Giddey for under $8.5k.

• The Jazz are in a nice spot today at home against a struggling Nets team that has lost four straight games and are on a back-to-back today. Mike Conley ($5,600) remains very reasonably priced having gone for 30+ FP in three straight games, and remains a solid play for the price at PG today. Lauri Markkanen ($8,700) has gone for 44+ FP in five of his last six games, and even with a $500 salary increase from last game I’d still consider him underpriced given his 60+ FP upside, and if he doesn’t make your cash game lineup today I’d definitely be looking to use him in GPPs.

• Guys to keep on your radar for cash games depending on injury news include Caris LeVert ($5,600) if Mitchell is out, CJ McCollum ($8,900) / Trey Murphy ($5,200) / Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700) if Marshall & Jones are out, Russell Westbrook ($8,200) if LBJ is out, Richaun Holmes ($4,500) if Sabonis is out, and either Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,000) or Jericho Sims ($3,600) depending on who starts for Robinson.

Looking at DraftKings:

• The Warriors remain the top team to target on DK as Jordan Poole ($7,900) is too cheap given his usage bump today, while every other player available for them today is $5,100 or cheaper so it will be very easy to fit 3-4 in cash games along with plenty of studs from other games.

• Isaiah Hartenstein ($3,000) and Jericho Sims ($3,000) are both min price and I will almost certainly use whoever ends up starting in my cash game lineup as the upside would be too high to fade at those salaries. Jalen Brunson ($8,600) also remains too cheap and will likely make my main build on DK, while RJ Barrett ($6,500) comes at a $500 discount to FD and is at his cheapest salary in over a month, so he is squarely in play for cash game consideration as well.

• My favorite Mavericks player for the price is Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,800), as he’s $1k cheaper than FD and his price only went up $200 on DK after returning from injury last game and going for almost 25 FP in 34 minutes. With Wood now out he should easily see 34+ minutes again, and with the usage bump he’ll get on offense and more rebounding opportunities he should easily pay off his current salary.

• Wendell Carter ($6,200) is at his cheapest salary of the season, and is one of my favorite mid-range targets today in a projected close matchup with the Pelicans. Carter has gone for 40+ FP in two of his last three games, and last game he saw his most minutes (32) since returning from injury so he could be looking at 34-36 minutes today, and he’s just too cheap given the upside he’s shown in a likely very competitive matchup with a chance he sees his regular starters’ minutes.

• Josh Giddey ($7,700) only went up $200 from last game and remains way too cheap for someone with his upside in a projected close, high scoring matchup with SAC today, while Lu Dort ($5,000) also went up only $200 after going for over 44 FP last game is a fine option if you need an SF in his price range. For SAC, if Sabonis ends up out I will be looking to use both DeAaron Fox ($8,200) and Richaun Holmes ($3,500) in my cash game lineup.

• Markkanen ($9,500) is a bit too pricy compared to FD so he’s just a GPP play on DK for me, but Mike Conley ($5,400) and Walker Kessler ($5,700) remain at great prices if you need a PG or C for under $6k.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn