NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/4/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-04 23:49:59

Huge 12 game slate today full of great matchups, some big questionable names, and tons of value. The Magic are still serving some suspensions and have just nine available, the Warriors are still injury-riddled and have just ten available, and the Cavs are likely still without Garland leaving them with either eleven or ten available depending on the status of Mobley. Zion Williamson and Gordon Hayward are a couple big new names that are out or likely out today with hamstring strains and we still need the injury reports for OKC, MIL, and SAC as they are all on back-to-backs. To cap off the wildness of today LeBron is questionable in the final games of the night so hopefully we learn his status as early as possible as there could be some serious late-swap Lakers value if they rule out LBJ hours after lock.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• LeBron James and Lonnie Walker are both questionable for the Lakers so we would likely see Troy Brown start if either of them sat while Austin Reaves would likely start with him if both end up out. Russell Westbrook only played 11 minutes before hurting his foot last game but is probable tonight and would be looking at a huge role if LBJ is out while Schroder, Reaves, and Brown would all be in play for value with no LBJ. (Update: LBJ and Walker are OUT)

• Joel Embiid is questionable with foot soreness and if out we’d likely see Harrell draw the start with Tucker and Reed helping more at C as well, while James Harden and Tobias Harris would get big usage bumps and have much higher ceilings. (Update: Embiid is OUT)

• Evan Mobley is questionable so Kevin Love should continue to start if Mobley sits and even though his price has increased a bit he’s still under $6k on both sites and would be a solid play. (Update: Mobley is IN)

• Devin Vassell is questionable so Romeo Langford and Josh Richardson would handle most of the SG minutes if he sits but neither would be on my value radar with so many other safer and higher upside value plays out there today. Vassell’s absence would mainly help the upside of Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson but again I’m not very high on the Spurs today as almost 10 point road underdogs against the Knicks. (Update: Vassell is OUT)

• Tyus Jones, Santi Aldama, and Ziaire Williams are questionable for Memphis so there’s a good chance we’d see a bunch of G-League guys available if any of those three end up out. It’s a phenomenal matchup with Charlotte so Morant would have an elite ceiling if Jones sat while Jackson and Adams would be looking at a lot of minutes if Aldama and Ziaire both end up out as Clarke is already out too. (Update: Jones, Aldama and Ziaire are IN)

• Naz Reid and Taurean Prince are questionable for Minnesota and if out their bench minutes would be handled by Knight/Garza and Rivers/Ryan respectively. Bryn Forbes is now questionable too but MIN has plenty of guards to handle any minutes he’d have seen.

• Duncan Robinson and Dewayne Dedmon are questionable for Miami so the available guards/wings would absorb Robinson’s time if out while Orlando Robinson would continue to get most of the backup C minutes if Dedmon remains out. (Update: Robinson is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Bucks will be without Holiday, Middleton, Hill, and Ingles on the b2b so look for Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton to start and be solid value plays while Giannis has one of the highest ceilings of the slate and is a top spend up in cash games.

• With Zion out indefinitely and Nance still out, Naji Marshall is looking at a lot of minutes as the likely starter at PF and is a great play for under $5k on both sites in a nice matchup with Houston.

• The Magic have just nine players available as Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, Admiral Schofield, and Kevon Harris are all serving suspensions today while Bol Bol has entered health and safety protocols and the trio of Suggs/Okeke/Isaac all remain out. Fultz and Banchero will definitely start but they could go a few different ways at SG, C, and the other forward spot but for now I’d expect Gary Harris at SG, Terence Ross at SF, and Wendell Carter at C although I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the current four bench players found a spot in the starting lineup.

• SGA looks on track to play after sitting yesterday as he’s off the initial OKC injury report so Giddey, Mann, and most of the other OKC guys aren’t as appealing plays now. We’ll see who they start at C as Kenrich Williams got the start yesterday after Jaylin Williams started the previous two games but whoever does end up starting won’t be on my DFS radar with so many other strong value plays in other games today along with SGA being in.

• Gordon Hayward is likely out with a strained hamstring and Kelly Oubre is out indefinitely after hand surgery, so Jalen McDaniels should jump right back in to the starting lineup and is a very strong value play on DK at just $4,400. Cody Martin has a chance to return and help at the SG/SF spots too.

• The Warriors remain without Curry, Wiggins, Kuminga, Wiseman, Iguodala, and J. Green so they will be playing with just ten available today with Poole and DiVincenzo continuing to start while Lamb and Jerome should remain the top bench options.

• Killian Hayes is back from his suspension so he should jump right back in to the starting PG role and move Bey back to the bench while Burks becomes a much less appealing value play now. Marvin Bagley is out indefinitely with a hand injury so the available DET bigs will all absorb his minutes.

• Landry Shamet should continue to start for Booker and Caris LeVert should continue to start for Garland, while Immanuel Quickley should continue to start for Barrett and Onyeka Okongwu should continue to start for Capela.

• Brandon Clarke remains out for MEM and they could be pretty thin at the PF position if Aldama and Ziaire can’t play through their Q tags as they would be down to Roddy and Tillman as the bench bigs (unless some guys from the G-League become available later).

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• The Pelicans are in a nice spot tonight at home against Houston, and with no Zion, Ingram, or Nance there is a lot of usage available for the starters. Naji Marshall ($4,900) should draw the start at PF and is one of my favorite value plays of the slate as he should easily see 30+ minutes with not much PF depth behind him and he’s shown 30+ FP upside when given starters’ minutes. Herb Jones ($5,100) and Trey Murphy ($4,900) are other solid value plays while CJ McCollum ($8,600) has slate-breaking upside in this matchup and the usage bump he’ll see along with Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600) and both are top GPP plays.

• The Warriors are also in a nice spot tonight as their starters are looking at big minutes with just ten players available and their prices didn’t increase enough to make me hesitant on targeting at least a couple of them in cash games. Jordan Poole ($8,400) only went up $300 after going for over 40 FP for the 2nd straight game and he continues to see a huge usage rate with no Curry while Draymond Green ($6,400) only went up $200 after going for 50 FP last game and should be heavily involved as the Warriors are the thinnest in the frontcourt today. Kevin Looney ($5,400) should easily pay off that salary with pretty much no center depth behind him while Klay Thompson ($7,900) has one of the highest ceilings of the slate as he will take pretty much any shot he wants (took 39 shots last game) and if he gets hot from three he can go for 60+ FP no problem.

• The other team with a short bench is Orlando so Markelle Fultz ($6,800) and Paolo Banchero ($8,000) will carry this offense and both should be in cash game consideration. We’ll see who starts with them but if Gary Harris ($3,800) and/or Terrence Ross ($3,700) start then both would be in consideration as excellent value options.

• With Barrett out Immanuel Quickley ($6,800) and Julius Randle ($9,900) have been benefiting the most, but with Brunson available I’m not as high on Quickley as I am on Randle who has easy 60+ FP upside against the Spurs who he went for 41/11/7 against a few games ago.

• Some other plays I like for the price on FD today include Onyeka Okongwu ($6,700), Caris LeVert ($6,500), John Collins ($6,200), Thomas Bryant ($6,200), Jalen Williams ($5,700), Kyle Anderson ($5,600), Harrison Barnes ($5,500), Jabari Smith ($5,000), and Pat Connaughton ($3,900).

Looking at DraftKings:

• I didn’t mention Jalen McDaniels on FD as he’s $5,500 there and a bit pricier than I’d like compared to other value plays there today, but on DK he is just $4,400 and with the likely starting role he’ll be in today I think he easily hits 6x value making one of my favorite DK values of the slate.

• Naji Marshall ($4,800) remains my other favorite SF/PF value while CJ McCollum ($8,200) is at his cheapest salary in over a week and I will definitely be considering him for cash games at that price. Jonas Valanciunas ($6,300) is also at his cheapest DK price in over a week and brings huge upside with no Zion.

• Onyeka Okongwu ($5,800) comes at a $900 discount to FD and with three straight games with 36+ FP he’s one of my favorite overall plays on DK today, especially as he gets a matchup with SAC who is on a b2b and this game is sitting at the highest total of the slate (245.5) with just a one point spread.

• All of the Warriors starters remain in play as well, and some other DK plays I like include Thomas Bryant ($6,200), John Collins ($6,000), Tre Jones ($5,700), Caris LeVert ($5,500), Gary Trent ($5,500), Kyle Anderson ($5,400), Herb Jones ($4,900), Harrison Barnes ($4,800), Gary Harris ($3,800), and Jaylin Williams ($3,300).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn