NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/1/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-01 23:03:10

We’re in for some potential March Madness today, as we’re starting the new month with a big nine game slate and eight teams are on a back-to-back, so we’re still waiting for almost half of the teams’ first injury reports. Kevin Durant will make his Suns debut today but will be on some kind of minutes limit as he comes back from his MCL sprain, and Kevin Porter almost returned yesterday but needed another day, so he has a good chance to return today. Currently there’s only two games with projected totals over 230 right now, with NOP/POR leading the way at just 232.5, which kind of makes sense with so many teams on a b2b, but that last game of the night is a big one as it should be the highest scoring and we have a couple big questionable tags for two Pelicans starters, along with two crucial bench players for them already out, so CJ McCollum may be looking at a big usage rate in a big revenge spot.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jonas Valanciunas & Josh Richardson are questionable for New Orleans, and with this game tipping at 10PM EST there could be some really nice swapportunities, especially if J-Val gets ruled out after lock and Willy Hernangomez draws the start. Running a CourtIQ with Valanciunas and Richardson out, along with the traded away Hart and Graham, plus the injured Pelicans in Zion/Nance/Alvarado, we see Brandon Ingram getting a +7.5% usage bump while scoring an additional .59 FPPM, which puts him in must play territory at his current salaries. Willy Hernangomez sees the next highest bumps with 4.4% more usage and .16 more FPPM, while CJ McCollum seems a .23 FPPM bump, so those three would be my favorite core for cash games if J-Val and Richardson end up out.

• Joel Embiid is questionable with foot soreness, and if out we’d likely see Reed or Harrell start at center, while James Harden would get a big usage bump and be a top spend up of the slate. Tobias Harris would also be a much more appealing play having to carry a lot more of the offense.

• Anfernee Simons is questionable to return from his ankle sprain, and if active it would push Reddish or Thybulle to the bench and put whoever starts between those two likely out of value play interest for me.

• Kevin Porter is questionable to return today, and if available it would be even harder to trust any Houston player to have a ceiling game, especially with Tate also available after sitting for rest yesterday. If Porter remains out look for Nix to start for him again.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Pistons are still pretty depleted as Duren, Stewart, and Livers are all out, so James Wiseman should continue to start at center. They will get back Jaden Ivey who missed last game for personal reasons, along with Bojan Bogdanovic who is probable, so the only question mark as far as starters goes is at one of the forward spots. McGruder started over Diallo last game so we’re projecting him to again at SF, but they could go with Burks or Diallo today but we will know before lock as they play in the first wave of games.

• The Lakers will be without James, Davis, and Russell today, so I’d expect either Rui Hachimura or Mo Bamba to start at center for them, and whoever does end up starting will be a very appealing value option on both sites. Schroder and Beasley were already top plays for me before the AD news, and now are basically must plays for me on all sites.

• With Kevin Durant making his Suns debut it will push either Craig or Okogie to the bench, although it’s not super important for DFS purposes as Durant’s presence makes me really hesitant to use any Suns player today. Terrence Ross is out for Phoenix so more minutes for the guards/wings.

• LaMelo Ball broke his ankle last game and is out for the season, so Rozier and Smith will get most of the PG minutes now, and Kelly Oubre will get a boost in usage and minutes as he will join the starting lineup tonight.

• Kyle Lowry remains out so Gabe Vincent should continue to start at PG for Miami, Ben Simmons remains out for Brooklyn, and Jaylen Brown will return from his personal absence for Boston.

• Larry Nance and Jose Alvarado are out for New Orleans, so Marshall, Murphy, and Hayes become the top bench options for them, and they could be down to 11 or 10 players if J-Val or Richardson can’t play through their Q tags.

• Troy Brown did end up starting for LeBron yesterday, but he was severely outplayed by Austin Reaves who went for around 7x more FP than him, so they could switch to Reaves as a starter, but even if they stick with Brown he won’t be a DFS option for me.

• Kenrich Williams is out for OKC along with SGA still, so Isaiah Joe should continue to start, while guys like Saric, JRE, Wiggins, and Waters will all see an uptick in minutes with Kenrich out.

• Khris Middleton will rest on the b2b for Milwaukee joining Matthews who remains out.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• The Lakers are a top team to target with LBJ, Davis, and Russell all out, as they draw a much better matchup with OKC today compared to Memphis yesterday, and I will be starting my cash game lineup with Dennis Schroder ($5,900). This is probably the last game we can play him for under $6k, and I’m expecting a big bounce back game after he went for just 24 FP in 32 minutes last game, which was still a decent output considering he made just four field goals and had six turnovers, so the floor is solid and the ceiling is 40+ FP. Malik Beasley ($5,300) is my next favorite p/$ Laker in cash games, while Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,900), Rui Hachimura ($4,900), and Austin Reaves ($4,600) are all very appealing value options with no AD, especially if Hachimura draws the start for him.

• The Hornets have a lot of usage available with LaMelo out, and FD did a pretty good job of pricing up Terry Rozier ($8,200) and Gordon Hayward ($6,700) a bit, but Dennis Smith ($6,100) is still a great value today as he should start at PG and could be looking at 35+ minutes with little PG depth behind him. Like Schroder, Smith comes with a pretty high floor considering he had over 23 FP last game while making just one field goal, so assuming he can make a few more shots today and see more minutes, he’s just a bit too cheap for the likely 5x value floor he should have today. (Update: Oubre will start, so Smith may not be as high of an upside play as he would have been if he was starting)

• I definitely want exposure to NOP/POR in cash games as it has highest projected total with just a 1.5 point spread, and Matisse Thybulle ($4,200) is my favorite p/$ play from Portland as his price didn’t change from yesterday after going for over 27 FP. He should be looking at 30+ minutes today with the likelihood of this game being competitive until the end, and his ability to get steals, blocks, and make a few shots gives him a very strong floor and a decent ceiling for such a cheap price. Brandon Ingram ($8,300) and CJ McCollum ($7,800) are excellent plays for New Orleans, as they’re by far the highest upside options for them, and that’s even before we learn the statuses of Valanciunas and Richardson. If Valanciunas sits and Willy Hernangomez ($4,600) starts I’d try to find a way to get him in your main build too. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups, where I like betting the over on Ingrams 25.5 points line today.

• Some other value plays I’d consider for cash games include Jerami Grant ($6,600), Cameron Johnson ($5,600), Xavier Tillman ($5,300), Herbert Jones ($5,200), and Patrick Beverley ($4,400).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Dennis Schroder ($5,400) and Dennis Smith ($5,100) remain the first two guys I’m locking in to cash games, as both are just way too cheap given their roles as starting PG’s with their top usage teammate being out. Malik Beasley ($4,500) is also a cash game lock for me as he’s $800 cheaper than FD, and his price didn’t budge after going for 5x value last game in 31 minutes, and he should have a much higher floor today against OKC. With Davis now out for the Lakers, Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,900) is a much more appealing value option now, while Rui Hachimura ($3,700) will be a cash game lock if he draws the start. (Update: Oubre will start, so Smith may not be as high of an upside play as he would have been if he was starting)

• Terry Rozier ($7,200) is $1k cheaper than FD so I prefer him for DK cash games along with Mark Williams ($6,300) who is $500 cheaper than FD. James Wiseman ($4,800) and Marvin Bagley ($4,900) remain great values on DK with Duren and Stewart both out, and I prefer going with Bagley in cash games as he should see similar minutes as Wiseman but he has a much higher ceiling.

• Lu Dort ($5,100) also remains underpriced on DK with SGA likely still out, and assuming he sees closer to 35 minutes compared to the 21 he saw last game, Dort should easily pay off that salary and go for at least 5-6x value. Jalen Williams ($6,200) would be my next favorite p/$ play from OKC if you are looking to stack that game up.

• Matisse Thybulle ($3,700) remains an excellent value play for Portland, and I’d consider Willy Hernangomez ($3,800) a must play at his DK salary if Valanciunas gets ruled out and Willy starts. Other strong p/$ plays on DK include Alex Caruso ($3,400), Patrick Beverley ($3,600), Mitchell Robinson ($5,000), Cameron Johnson ($5,300), Austin Reaves ($3,800), Isaiah Joe ($4,500), Xavier Tillman ($4,600), and Herbert Jones ($4,200).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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