NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/7/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-07 23:38:27

Solid eight game slate today with the Pistons and 76ers on a back-to-back, so look for their initial injury reports later as both will be very important as each team had multiple starters out yesterday. Right now there are a bunch of questionable starters in the Situation Room, but fortunately almost all of them have games that start at 8PM or earlier so we should have most of the injury news before lock. Morant remains away from the Grizzlies and one site must have missed this news as Tyus Jones is a free square on DK today, while FD priced him up correctly, so we should see a pretty big gap in ownership for him tonight, and the same can be said for Immanuel Quickley if Brunson is out again as he’s $2.3k cheaper on DK compared to FD. The Bucks dropped a bombshell at 12:30pm ruling out both Giannis and Holiday, so there’s going to be plenty of great options for them today.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jalen Brunson is questionable with foot soreness, and if out Immanuel Quickley would likely start again and I’d consider him a must play for $5k on DK, while his $7.3k price on FD is still reasonable considering he saw 45 minutes before the double OT last game, in which he ended with over 75 FP. The Knicks currently have a top five projected team total of the slate in a great matchup with Charlotte, and as 10 point home favorites I could see them giving Brunson another game of rest, so Quickley, Randle, Barrett, and even Robinson could all be top targets of the slate if he’s out. (Update: Brunson is OUT)

• Kyle Kuzma is questionable for the Wizards, so Anthony Gill could get another spot start if Kuzma sits, while Kispert and Avdija would both see more minutes too. Bradley Beal & Kristaps Porzingis see usage bumps of 4.1% and 3.1% respectively with Kuzma and Morris off the floor this season, along with FPPM bumps of .29 and .26, so both would be excellent plays against Detroit if Kuzma sits. (Update: Kuzma is IN)

• Wendell Carter and Gary Harris are questionable for Orlando, so Moe Wagner would likely start again for Carter, and Jalen Suggs would likely start again for Harris. Both replacement starters would be solid value plays on both sites as each saw 33+ minutes as starters last game and both went for almost 30 FP. (Update: Carter and Harris are OUT)

• Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker can be considered questionable for now as both missed yesterday’s game, with DeAnthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels starting for each. Harden and Maxey are already a couple of my favorite plays today at their current salaries, so Harris sitting would just give them higher ceilings and put Melton in play for value, while Tucker sitting would make McDaniels a pretty solid value option as he went for over 30 FP yesterday in 29 minutes. James Harden is now questionable as well, so Maxey and Melton could be looking at huge roles if he sits.

• Jalen Williams is questionable for OKC, so we’d likely see Dario Saric or another PF like Dieng start for him if he ends up out, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be an even better spend up as he scores an additional .17 FPPM with Jalen off the floor this season along with the other hurt or traded OKC players out today. (Update: Jalen is OUT)

• DAngelo Russell is questionable to return from his ankle sprain, and if available it would just take Schroder, Beasley, and Reaves out of DFS consideration for me, with the only Lakers I’d be interested in being Brown for value and Davis for a spend up. If Russell remains out look for Schroder to continue to start with Reaves backing him up.

• Walker Kessler is now questionable with an illness, and if out Kelly Olynyk would likely slide over to center and be a much better value option, while Markkanen would likely move to PF with Agbaji getting the start at one of the wing spots. Jordan Clarkson is also questionable now, so Agbaji could start with THT at PG, while Kris Dunn would get a nice bump in minutes too. (Update: Kessler is OUT)

• Kevon Looney is now questionable with back soreness, and if out I’d expect Kuminga to start with Draymond in the frontcourt.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are out for the Bucks (along with Matthews and Dragic), so Bobby Portis and Jevon Carter will likely start for them, and this could be the day we finally see Khris Middleton back in the starting lineup as they could really use a scoring boost with their top two guys out.

• The Pistons will be without Hayes, Burks, Diallo, Duren, Bogdanovic, and Stewart today, so they currently have just 10 players available. Cory Joseph or Rodney McGruder will likely start in the backcourt with Jaden Ivey, while Livers, Bagley, and Wiseman should fill out the starting lineup and all the starters could be looking at huge minutes.

• Monte Morris was questionable but is now unlikely to play today, so Delon Wright should continue to start at PG for the Wizards.

• Andrew Wiggins remains out for the Warriors, so Donte DiVincenzo should remain a starter with Poole as the 6th man.

• Lauri Markkanen is back for Utah, so Ochai Agbaji should go back to the bench unless they decide to keep him at SG with THT going to the bench.

• Ja Morant remains out for Memphis so look for Tyus Jones to continue to start, while Santi Aldama will continue to get Clarke’s minutes, and Dillon Brooks is back from his one-game suspension to start at SF.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Xavier Tillman ($5,700) is one of the top value plays for me today, as his price didn’t change after going for 26.5 FP last game in 34 minutes, and today he gets the Lakers in which he put up 42.2 FP against in 32 minutes a few games ago. Mainly he’s a top value play for me as the PF/C position on FD today isn’t exactly full of great options for under $6k, so with Adams and Clarke out we should see Tillman continue to get 30+ minutes and have around a 5x value floor with a ceiling of around 7x value. Jaren Jackson ($8,100) only went up $100 from last game and remains a very strong play for Memphis along with Desmond Bane ($8,200) and even Tyus Jones ($7,500) although I prefer Jones on DK for the price.

• If the Pistons remain without Bogdanovic, Stewart, and Duren today then I would consider Isaiah Livers ($4,200) as a top PF value option as he put up 24 FP in 38 minutes yesterday, and Detroit could also be without Diallo today after spraining his ankle last night. Marvin Bagley ($7,000) went up $800 in price overnight, and after scoring just 24 FP yesterday I’d expect his ownership to drop a bit today, but he still has a 45+ FP ceiling if none of the injured PF/Cs return today so he’s still in play for cash games today unless you need more salary savings. (Update: Livers is an excellent play with Bogdanovic, Burks, and Diallo all out now)

• Tyrese Maxey ($6,400) actually went down $400 in price overnight after another strong game of 30 FP in 37 minutes, and he remains one of the top p/$ PG/SG plays today, especially if Harris is unable to play or they rest Embiid on the b2b. PHI/MIN currently has the second closest spread of the slate so Maxey should easily see 35-40 minutes, and would get a nice usage bump if any of the other starters end up out.

• Delon Wright ($5,900) is another very strong PG/SG option today as Morris is unlikely to return today, so Wright should be looking at 33+ minutes as a starter today in a great matchup with Detroit, and could be looking at extra usage if Kuzma is unable to play.

• With Jrue and Giannis now out, Khris Middleton ($6,400) should be the primary scorer for Milwaukee today and could even join the starting the lineup again, so he is now an excellent cash game target who could see around 30 minutes with a 30+% usage rate. Jevon Carter ($4,400), Grayson Allen ($4,700), and Joe Ingles ($4,200) are all potential value options now and Bobby Portis ($6,200) has an elite ceiling as the likely starter for Giannis.

Looking at DraftKings:

• At least Tyus Jones ($4,900) isn’t $3.1k anymore, but him being under $5k is still a massive mispricing as he should be closer to $7k, especially the game after showing his elite upside with Morant out going for over 60 FP last game in 36 minutes. Today’s game with the Lakers has the closest spread of the slate, and Jones should easily have a 6x value floor along with 10x+ value ceiling he just showed, so consider him a “free square” in cash games and fade him at your own risk on DK. Xavier Tillman ($5,400), Desmond Bane ($7,700), and Jaren Jackson ($7,900) all remain high-upside plays at great prices for Memphis, while Dillon Brooks ($4,200) is a fine value play who should have a 5x value floor at that price.

• Unlike FD, Marvin Bagley ($5,500) did not see a price increase overnight on DK, so he remains a must play for me at this price with Detroit still depleted in the frontcourt. His 24 FP game yesterday could lower his ownership as well which makes me like him even more. Isaiah Livers ($3,400) is also looking like a must play with Bogdanovic and Diallo out, as he should be looking at 35+ minutes again as a starter, and is just too cheap for the 26+ FP he just showed last game. Jaden Ivey ($5,800) is now a top play with Hayes and Burks out.

• Khris Middleton ($6,400) remains a top play with Jrue and Giannis out, while Jevon Carter ($3,700) may be too cheap to fade in cash games as he’s $700 cheaper than FD should have an easy path to 20+ FP today.

• Mitchell Robinson ($4,900) is standing out as a top p/$ center for cash games today, as he’s $1,700 cheaper than FD, and draws a great matchup with Charlotte. Robinson has gone for 29.75 FP or higher in five of his last six games, so with a likely 5x value floor to go with a 7-8x value ceiling he’s looking like a fantastic play for under $5k, and with DK’s positional flexibility you can fit him, Bagley, Tillman, and even Anthony Davis all in the same cash game lineup if you want to. Check out our No House Advantage bonus code for new signups, and I like betting the over 11.5 rebounds line for Robinson there today.

• Delon Wright ($5,000) remains too cheap as the projected starter for Washington as he has an easy 5x value floor in a great matchup with Detroit, while Immanuel Quickley ($5,000) would be my second favorite p/$ play of the slate behind Tyus if Brunson remains out.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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