NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/16/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-16 23:53:47

Google “Sheldon Papers GIF” as this is what you will be doing multiple times throughout the day as we have a big 10 game slate and a lot of big names with questionable tags and each one being ruled out will make you love a new player or open up a new value option. We also have the Pelicans, Mavericks, and Knicks on back-to-backs and will get their injury reports later but the Mavericks’ one will be the most interesting as we will almost surely see Doncic and/or Dinwiddie get a day off today as each played 40+ minutes yesterday. With 12 questionable players having an impact rating of 8 or higher to start the day I wouldn’t rush to build lineups early as at least half of what you think is the optimal lineup right now won’t be in the optimal lineup at 7PM, so make sure to always be re-checking the situation room, lineups page, and LineupHQ to see how every big piece of news affects the slate.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• The Raptors have Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent questionable and if both are out we should see Dalano Banton draw another start after going off last game while OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Chris Boucher would be higher upside plays. If one or both of FVV and Trent play then I will likely avoid the Raptors today as they are priced up and there will be much safer options on other teams. (Update: VanVleet is IN, Trent is OUT)

• Tyrese Haliburton is Q with an ankle sprain and if out we would likely see TJ McConnell or Aaron Nesmith join the starting five while Andrew Nembhard would be a top value play and guys like Hield, Mathurin, and Turner would get nice usage bumps as well. (Update: Haliburton is IN)

• Also in the first games of the night we have Wendell Carter questionable for Orlando and if out I would consider Bol Bol close to a must-play with Banchero already out. Chuma Okeke would be an even better value play as well while Suggs and Wagner would have to carry more of the offense too. Mo Bamba has been a solid value option lately with four straight games over 20 FP and he could draw the start if Carter is out and if so he’d be a top value play. (Update: Carter is OUT)

• Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon are Q for the Heat so Miami could be extremely thin at center if both end up out. Nikola Jovic and Orlando Robinson would be the only players over 6’7” left so they would likely split center minutes with both being risky value plays. If Adebayo is out then Jimmy Butler becomes a top play of the slate while Lowry, Strus, and Martin would be much more appealing plays as well. (Update: Adebayo is OUT)

• The Bucks have Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, and AJ Green all questionable today and if all three return from injury it would be hard to trust any Bucks guard to have a ceiling game as they would be too deep at the position. If Holiday remains out then I’d still consider Jevon Carter and MarJon Beauchamp as solid targets. (Update: Holiday and Connaughton are OUT, Green is IN)

• Chris Paul is questionable again with his heel soreness so Cameron Payne would start for him if out and is still really cheap on FD in what should be a close, competitive game with the Warriors making he and Devin Booker top targets if Paul sits.

• Zion Williamson sat yesterday and can be considered questionable today and if he ends up out again we’d likely see Trey Murphy draw another start. Larry Nance still saw more minutes than Murphy off the bench but both would be in play for value while CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram would get nice usage bumps and have higher ceilings if Zion was out again. (Update: Zion is OUT)

• Donovan Mitchell is questionable for the Cavs and if he is out then Darius Garland becomes a top play of the slate as he went off for over 65 FP last game with Mitchell out. Lamar Stevens would likely start for Mitchell and be a decent value play as he saw 30 minutes as a starter last game going for over 20 FP. (Update: Mitchell is IN)

• For now we can consider Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie questionable as Jason Kidd hinted one will likely rest on the b2b today while Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber could also be out due to injuries along with the b2b. If Doncic sits then Dinwiddie would be a top target of the slate looking at a huge usage bump while Hardaway, Wood, and Green would all get major minutes bumps with one joining the starting five. If Dinwiddie sits then Doncic would be a top play of the slate and the rest of the Mavs would all get slight bumps. In the event Doncic & Dinwiddie both sit then I’d consider Tim Hardaway the top value play of the slate while guys like Finney-Smith, Green, and possibly Ntilikina or Campazzo would be in play for value depending on who starts. (Update: Doncic, Kleber, and McGee are OUT. Dinwiddie and Bertans are IN)

• In the final game we have Aaron Gordon questionable with an illness which could have a huge impact on the slate if he ends up out as Jokic is already out so we’d likely see Jeff Green and DeAndre Jordan start at the PF/C spots and both would be in play for value. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter are already excellent plays with Jokic out and would be even more appealing if Gordon also sat. Bones Hyland is also Q and his absence would benefit Bruce Brown the most.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• As I just mentioned him I’ll start with Nikola Jokic going in to Health & Safety Protocols and out for tonight which should give DeAndre Jordan or Jeff Green the start at C. Whoever starts between them would be a decent value play while Murray and Porter are the Nuggets players I will be targeting the most with both getting huge usage bumps with no Jokic and possibly no Gordon as well.

• Paolo Banchero is out again so Chuma Okeke should continue to start and is a decent value play while Bol Bol could be looking at a huge role if Carter also ends up out.

• The Cavs will be without Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade which will move Evan Mobley to center with Lamar Stevens or Kevin Love likely starting at PF.

• The Heat will be without Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro so look for Max Strus and Dewayne Dedmon (if active) to start while Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry will carry a ton of the offense and are top plays today.

• Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are out for the Celtics so Derrick White should start at PG and is a top value play of the slate while Tatum and Brown get slight usage bumps as well.

• The Bucks could have 13 available today if Holiday, Connaughton, and Green all return from injury but Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews will join Middleton and Ingles on the sidelines. With Giannis not at 100% with his ankle it would be hard to trust any Bucks player to have a ceiling game if all three of the questionable guys play but I still like the price of MarJon Beauchamp if a couple of the Q guys end up out.

• The Raptors lineup seems to be always in flux as they start different centers depending on the status of their guards so we could see Koloko or Young start at C depending on if FVV or Trent play. Either way I will only consider Raptors as top plays if both FVV and Trent sit.

• Bradley Beal will be back for the Wizards which makes me hesitant to use any WSH players today as Beal really limits the ceiling of Kuzma and Porzingis and any value plays I would have considered for them just become way too risky with Beal back.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Jamal Murray ($6,400) is just way too cheap given how solid he’s been lately and now Jokic is out so Murray’s usage will take a big spike and he should be one of the highest owned players of the slate. Michael Porter ($6,200) is also too cheap for the usage bump he’ll get with no Jokic and I would expect he and Murray to be in almost every single entry or cash game lineup on FD especially if Gordon is also out. DeAndre Jordan ($4,000), Jeff Green ($3,500) and Zeke Nnaji ($3,500) will have to handle most of the C minutes today and whoever starts between them will be in play for value. Bruce Brown ($5,100) is also worth mentioning as he’s been excellent off the bench and could start if Gordon ends up out at likely much lower ownership than Murray/Porter.

• With Allen out for CLE I’d expect to see Lamar Stevens ($3,500) or Kevin Love ($4,900) start at PF and whoever starts between the two would be my preferred value target. Darius Garland ($7,800) would be a top play of the slate as well if Mitchell ends up out.

• Cam Reddish ($3,500) is projecting as a top p/$ value option as he’s seen over 30 minutes in b2b games as a starter and has crushed his salary going for 46+ and 26+ FP’s in those games. With the Knicks traveling to Denver on the back-to-back they could give some veteran guys lesser minutes while younger players like Reddish should continue to see 30+ minutes making him a solid value target today.

• Al Horford ($5,500) and Mason Plumlee ($5,700) are two of the best p/$ projected big men today as both are averaging over 30 FPPG over their last five games and both are playing in games with high totals and close spreads so definitely keep both in mind if you need a PF or C under $6k.

• Patrick Williams ($4,000) is another top value play I have to keep mentioning as he’s the cheapest he’s been all season which is crazy as he’s gone for over 22 FP in six of his last seven games and should be closer to $5k not $4k. He’s not going to go off for 40 FP or anything but if you need the savings to fit in another stud he’s absolutely in play at the SF/PF positions.

• With Smart and Brogdon ruled out for Boston I’d consider Derrick White ($5,000) a must play now in a nice matchup with Atlanta.

• More guys that I think are great plays for the price on FD include Andrew Nembhard ($3,500), Bol Bol ($5,300), MarJon Beauchamp ($3,800), Tim Hardaway ($4,500), and Klay Thompson ($5,500).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Jamal Murray ($6,500) and Michael Porter ($5,900) remain way too cheap and are the first guys I’m locking in to cash games and if DeAndre Jordan ($3,300) starts for Jokic I think I’d have to lock him in too at that price looking at 25+ minutes and maybe more. Bruce Brown ($5,100) is an excellent GPP play along with Jeff Green ($3,500) and KCP ($4,900) as they all should see solid minutes at much lower ownership than the first three DEN guys I mentioned.

• Cam Reddish ($3,600) remains a very strong value play and I also want to mention Immanuel Quickley ($4,200) who is $1,300 cheaper on DK compared to FD and with 20+ FP in three straight games and potentially a bump in minutes on the b2b for younger Knicks players he could be a sneaky cash game or GPP play at a great price.

• Al Horford ($5,700) and Mason Plumlee ($5,900) remain very strong center options and Myles Turner ($6,900) is a bit too cheap as well with the best matchup a center can have against Charlotte.

• Patrick Williams ($4,300) is still too cheap and a very safe cash game value option and if Doncic or Dinwiddie sit for Dallas I’d consider Tim Hardaway ($4,000) a cash game lock at that price.

• Derrick White ($4,900) is now in must-play territory as the likely starter for Boston in a nice matchup with ATL.

• Other DK plays I like for the price include Andrew Nembhard ($4,100), Mo Bamba ($4,400), Lu Dort ($5,000), Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,300), Jalen Williams ($3,900), Larry Nance ($4,200), Obi Toppin ($3,900), and Klay Thompson ($5,700).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn