NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/18/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-18 23:24:45

Big 11 game slate to end the week that could see the return of LeBron James as well as Holiday, Allen, and Zion. We won’t see LaMelo Ball as he reinjured in his ankle on a fan’s foot last game and the Nuggets are losing big names left and right with Jamal Murray joining Nikola Jokic in health & safety protocols while Aaron Gordon could be out as well. Only the Pistons are on a back-to-back so we’ll see their injury report later today.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• LeBron James is questionable in the last game of the night, and if he plays, I won’t be on any Lakers in cash games as his presence just puts a big usage cap on his teammates. If we get news before 10PM that LBJ will remain out then you could still have a chance to swap him. However, overall the DET/LAL game is not one I’m looking to target tonight with too many unknowns with the Lakers rotations getting players back along with DET on the b2b so some guys could have minutes limited for them.

• Jarrett Allen is questionable with his illness and if he returns I would consider him in GPPs as the matchup with Charlotte is the best in the league for centers. Mobley, Love, and Stevens would be off my radar if Allen plays but if Allen remains out then I’d consider Evan Mobley an excellent target especially at his price on DK of $6,400. (Update: Allen is IN)

• Bam Adebayo missed last game with his knee contusion and questionable but is sounding closer to doubtful today so we could see Nikola Jovic draw another start if Bam remains out and could play huge minutes with Dedmon out as well. Gabe Vincent is also Q now as of 5:30PM so Lowry, Strus, and Martin might play the whole game if he is out. (Update: Adebayo & Vincent are OUT)

• Tobias Harris is questionable with hip soreness and if out Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid would get usage bumps and have to carry a lot of the offense today. Thybulle, Niang and House would absorb most of Harris’s minutes with one of Niang and House likely starting.

• Zion Williamson has missed the last couple games and is questionable today with his foot contusion. If he remains out look for Trey Murphy to continue to start and although he’ll likely see around 25 minutes he’s still a value option as he showed what he can do in limited minutes going for almost 45 FP last game. CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram would be much more appealing plays with no Zion as well.

• Jrue Holiday is questionable again for the Bucks as he tries to return from an ankle sprain and if he does end up playing I’d be off the Bucks in cash games as Giannis would take a usage hit and is already not 100% healthy with three games in a row under 45 FP and the tough matchup with Philly makes Bucks players even less appealing. If Holiday remains out then MarJon Beauchamp likely remains a starter and would be a decent value play while Jevon Carter would slide to PG and be an OK play for his sub $6k price.

• Kevin Porter is questionable with back soreness and in an excellent matchup with the Pacers I’d consider Jalen Green a must play in all formats if Porter ends up out as he’s way too cheap at $6,500 for how much more usage he’d have to take on and he’s already been paying off his salary easily over his last five games. (Update: KPJ is OUT)

• Marcus Smart missed last game and is questionable today with ankle inflammation and although the sites bumped up Derrick White salary he’d still be in play as the likely starter if Smart sat again. (Update: Smart is OUT)

• Reggie Bullock is Q with a neck strain and if out Josh Green or Tim Hardaway would likely start for him.

• Gordon Hayward was upgraded to Q around 12PM today so he could return and take Jalen McDaniels out of value consideration.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Jimmy Butler is out for Miami and we’re considering Bam Adebayo doubtful now so with Herro already out Kyle Lowry should be a top play of the slate getting a big time usage bump while Max Strus is an excellent mid-range play as well as both could see 40+ minutes. Duncan Robinson is also out so Jamal Cain could draw the start while Caleb Martin is becoming more and more a must play to me. Overall I’d be looking to get 2-3 Heat players in your cash game lineups as they could have a 7-8 man rotation with the starters likely seeing 35+ minutes with big usage rates. Dedmon is also out now so Jovic is an even better value play now.

• For now we’re considering Chris Paul more doubtful than questionable so Cameron Payne should draw another start and is still at a nice price especially on FD at $6,000. (Update: CP3 is OUT)

• Aaron Gordon is also being considered doubtful as the coach said he’s not expecting him to play today so Jeff Green would likely start for him again. If Gordon does end up out they’d be down him, Jokic, and Murray so Bones Hyland and DeAndre Jordan will likely start with Hyland being a top play of the slate. Michael Porter disappointed big time last game so his ownership might be lower than usual but it’s still an excellent spot for him especially with Murray now out.

• The Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball and Dennis Smith so Terry Rozier should get a lot of minutes at PG with Maledon backing him up. If Hayward returns he’d likely start but they may ease him in off the bench and start McDaniels instead.

• The Magic remain without Paolo Banchero so Chuma Okeke should continue to start but doesn’t offer much upside especially since Wendell Carter is on track to play after missing last game. Gary Harris is also on track to make his season debut so the guards will get a boost in depth.

• In other lineups news Thybulle or Melton will start for Harden, Grayson Allen should be back and could start for Beauchamp, and John Konchar should continue to start for Bane.

• DEN/DAL is going to be a popular game to target as the Nuggets should have confined heavy usage with their starters and Bruce Brown while Luka Doncic is back after getting a game off and two days of rest. IND/HOU is my favorite game stack with the highest total of the slate at 236.5 currently while NYK/GSW is another fun game to stack sitting a 234 total.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Dillon Brooks ($5,000) is at his cheapest price of the season and with Bane out he’s been chucking it with 18, 22, and 17 shot attempts in his last three games. He should have a pretty safe 25 FP floor and if he starts making more of his shots he has a 40+ FP ceiling so he’s one of the first guys I’m locking in to cash games. John Konchar ($4,500) remains a solid value option for Memphis as well looking at 35+ minutes as a starter but he’s not a must play for me as there is plenty of other value on the slate with higher upside.

• With Murray, Jokic, and potentially Gordon out for Denver Bones Hyland ($5,800) likely starts and is the next guy I’m locking in to cash games. He’s been taking about eight three-pointers a game over his last four games so this should easily jump to over ten while his stats across the board should increase if he gets the likely 30+ minutes he should see tonight. He’s too cheap for someone with 40+ FP upside that will run the offense for Denver today.

• Michael Porter ($6,200) is also a top play even after putting up an absolute dud last game as he and Hyland are the clear top offensive weapons for Denver today so hopefully people have some recency bias and his ownership is lower than last game but I will be back on him at that price in a great bounce back spot.

• With Butler, Herro, Robinson, and likely Adebayo out for the Heat I have to consider Kyle Lowry ($6,700) a top play of the slate as he will have to carry a ton of the offense in a nice matchup with Washington. Caleb Martin ($5,100) should also be a top value play as he could push for 40+ minutes and has been excellent lately going for over 32 FP in each of his last two games. Max Strus ($5,600) is in play just on the extreme minutes he should get and Nikola Jovic ($4,000) is a decent value play as well.

• Jalen Green ($6,500) is someone I was already considering an excellent play today in a great matchup with the Pacers and with Kevin Porter questionable Green would be my top play of the slate if Porter ended up out. He’s too cheap for someone who fills up the stat sheet in a variety of ways who could be looking at a big usage bump if Porter sits and Indiana is one of the best matchups in the league for scorers.

• Other value plays I like today include Cam Reddish ($4,100), Bol Bol ($5,300), Andrew Nembhard ($3,500), and Jabari Smith ($5,500).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Bones Hyland ($5,000) is $800 cheaper than FD and easily my top play on DK while Jalen Green ($6,500) is the same price as FD and right there with Hyland as someone who is just under-priced for their upside today. Michael Porter ($6,200) is also the same price as FD and squarely in play as well but Dillon Brooks ($6,400) is $1,400 more expensive and not a must-play for me on DK.

• For the Heat Kyle Lowry ($6,600) is the first guy I’m locking in while Caleb Martin ($4,900) remains an excellent value play. Max Strus ($5,800) is in play at that price with huge upside give his likely minutes today while Jamal Cain and Nikola Jovic could both start and be decent value options.

• Cam Reddish ($3,800) has seen 37, 33, and 32 minutes over his last three games and at that price he is definitely in play if you need the salary to fit in another stud while Jeff Green ($3,500) is another solid punt play if Gordon ends up out.

• More guys I like for the price on DK include Ayo Dosunmu ($4,300), Andrew Nembhard ($4,100), Jabari Smith ($5,200), Lu Dort ($5,300), and Marvin Bagley ($4,700).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn