NBA DFS Projections Preview: October 25
It’s our first mega slate of the NBA DFS season, with 12 games on tap and the long-awaited debuts of Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. Ben Simmons is back on the court after missing most of last season along with Cade Cunningham and Zion Williamson, and some big names serving suspensions to start the year include Ja Morant and Miles Bridges.
With 24 teams in play today there is a ton of injury news along with a bunch of new starting lineups and rotations, so let’s get in to it all along with some of my favorite DFS plays!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Luka Doncic is questionable with a calf injury, and if out I would expect either Hardaway, Green, Exum, or Hardy to join the starting lineup. Kyrie Irving would also become a top target of the slate looking at a big usage bump, and guys like Josh Green, Grant Williams, and Dereck Lively would be more appealing value plays.
- Darius Garland is questionable with a left hamstring strain, so Cleveland could be pretty thin with Allen already out and Wade doubtful. If Garland sits look for Caris LeVert to start and be a solid DFS play, while Donovan Mitchell would get a big usage and ceiling bump along with Evan Mobley.
- Zach Collins is questionable with an illness, and if out we’d likely see either Charles Bassey or Sandro Mamukelashvili start at center. Wembanyana could also slide to center which would allow them to start any one of the bench guards/wings as Keldon could slide to PF.
- Bones Hyland is questionable with an ankle sprain, and with Mann already out this would leave LAC very thin in the backcourt. Westbrook would be looking at more minutes along with Powell and George, while Martin, Batum, and Coffey would all get slight bumps.
- Chris Duarte is questionable for SAC, and if out it would just mean more minutes for Huerter, Monk, and Vezenkov.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Charlotte will be without Miles Bridges (suspension), Cody Martin (knee), Frank Ntilikina (leg), and James Bouknight (knee), so rookie Brandon Miller should be looking at a sizeable role right away, and could eventually start if Hayward gets hurt or struggles in the first couple weeks.
- The Wizards landed Tyus Jones and Jordan Poole this offseason while dealing Beal to the Suns and Porzingis to Boston. Daniel Gafford will now take over as the starting center joined by Kuzma in the frontcourt, and we’ll see if rookie Bilal Coulibaly gets the starting spot at SF out of the gate or if Deni Avdija gets the nod.
- The Pacers added Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin to their starting lineup, and we’ll see if Mathurin or Hield get the final starting spot.
- Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis join an already stacked Celtics lineup, and should help take off some of the scoring pressure on Brown and Tatum. With so much offensive talent I think it may be hard to trust any one player in DFS cash games until we see how usage shakes out over a few games.
- Houston added Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to their starting lineup, and dumped Kevin Porter Jr. after his off court issues. Exciting draft pick Amen Thompson should be a key player in the rotation from the get go, especially with Tari Eason sidelined for 2-3 weeks with a leg injury.
- Jarrett Allen is out for Cleveland with an ankle injury and Dean Wade is doubtful with an illness, so Evan Mobley should slide to center and is a great cash game option looking at big usage. Newly added Max Strus is expected to start right away, and Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, or Isaac Okoro may also start for Wade.
- The Pistons will begin the year without Bogdanovic, Morris, or Livers with various injuries, but still have plenty of talent and lineup versatility to start a few different guys. Cade Cunningham is back after missing almost all of last year, and highly drafted Ausar Thompson has a chance to start right away after a very strong preseason. Ivey, Hayes, and Burks are all candidates to start at SG.
- Josh Richardson is out for Miami, so we should see either Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, or Caleb Martin in the starting lineup.
- Jaden McDaniels is out with a calf injury for Minnesota, so Kyle Anderson is a top candidate to start until he’s available.
- Dennis Schroder will take VanVleet’s spot as the starting PG for Toronto, and it’ll be interesting to see how the minutes for the starters look this year with Nick Nurse gone.
- OKC will finally have a reliable center to begin a season, as Chet Holmgren makes his highly anticipated debut after sitting all last season injured. Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams are out indefinitely to begin the year.
- The Bulls didn’t make many moves and will field a very similar rotation to last year. Coby White is expected to begin the year as the starting PG.
- Zion Williamson is back for the Pelicans, and we can only hope his injury luck lets him play the majority of the season. Alvarado, Murphy, and Marshall will all begin the year on the sidelines with various injuries.
- Steven Adams is out for the year after knee surgery and Brandon Clarke remains out recovering from his achilles injury, so Xavier Tillman will likely start at center for Memphis. Newly acquired Marcus Smart will start at PG until Ja Morant is back from his 25-game suspension, and Ziaire Williams is expected to start at SF after a strong preseason. Santi Aldama hurt his ankle in practice and is also out, leaving an already thin PF/C depth chart even thinner.
- Utah added John Collins to their starting lineup so Olynyk moves back to the bench, and the rest of their rotation should be pretty similar to last year for now.
- Mavs rookie Dereck Lively has a good chance start at center after a solid preseason, and newly added Grant Williams will almost certainly start at PF. Mavs media notes list Derrick Jones in the probable starting lineup at SF, but Hardaway and Green will still see plenty of run if they come off the bench.
- The Spurs are going with Jeremy Sochan as the starting PG instead of Tre Jones, and he’ll add even more athleticism to the starting lineup led by Victor Wembanyama.
- Portland has already confirmed their starting lineup, with rookie Scoot Henderson at PG, Thybulle getting the nod at SF over Sharpe, and newly added Deandre Ayton at center. Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams are key additions to their rotation.
- Terance Mann is out for LAC after hurting his ankle in practice the other day, so I’d expect Norman Powell to slide in to the starting lineup, although they could go with someone like Martin, Batum, or even Coffey.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Victor Wembanyama ($7,700) is going to be priced above $10k within a couple of weeks, if not within a few games, so I will gladly play him in my main lineup for as long as that takes. Jeremy Sochan ($5,500) is another top value from the Spurs with a unique PG/PF dual eligibility.
- I usually like going cheap at center on huge slates, and for under $6.5k I’m loving Mark Williams ($6,300). He’s a walking double-double with solid blocks & steals upside, and in one of the highest projected game totals of the slate he’s my favorite p/$ target to get exposure to that ATL/CHA game. Daniel Gafford ($6,100) and Xavier Tillman ($5,900) are other cheap centers to consider.
- Coby White ($4,900) is expected to be the Bulls starting PG to begin the year, and this will probably be the cheapest salary we will see him at for a long time. At home against the Thunder is a great matchup for him to start the season strong, and I think he has easy 6-7x value at this price. On the other side of that game I love the price of Jalen Williams ($6,100) if you want OKC exposure in cash games.
- Jordan Poole ($7,700) and Tyus Jones ($5,700) are standing out as top guard values for cash games playing in the third highest projected game total of the slate against the Pacers. Poole is especially cheap given his expected role for this team, and Jones has legit 40+ FP upside and will probably be above $6k for the rest of the year after tonight.
Looking at DraftKings:
- I’m not sure DraftKings knows that Obi Toppin ($3,000) is a starter on the highest projected scoring team of the slate, but at minimum price he will easily be one of the highest-owned players. There’s plenty of other value out there today that I could see a cash game lineup that leaves him out just to be different from the field, but if he goes for 20+ FP then the optimal lineups will almost certainly have him.
- Victor Wembanyama ($8,500) is about $2k underpriced, and I will be using him in my cash game lineup until he is priced around the other superstars. With Jeremy Sochan ($4,700) earning the starting PG job, I think he is also way underpriced, and should be easy to find a spot in your main build as he’s PG/SF eligible.
- Tyus Jones ($4,900) was always a plug and play guy when he got starts for Morant in Memphis, and now that he’s the starter in Washington I think he’s a smash play at this cheap of a salary. Daniel Gafford ($5,100) is also a solid play, along with Bilal Coulibaly ($4,000) if he starts.
- The Bulls get a great matchup with OKC, and we have Zach LaVine ($6,800) and Nikola Vucevic ($6,900) both priced about $1k cheaper than their average salaries last season. Right now I’m looking to use both of them in my main build, and for GPPs I would have plenty of DeMar DeRozan ($7,100) and Coby White ($4,600) who are also both underpriced.
- A couple excellent p/$ big men that will almost certainly be in my cash game lineup are Walker Kessler ($5,600) and Evan Mobley ($6,300). Kessler ended last season priced above $7k, and should pick up right where he left off as a double-double machine with huge upside in the blocks department. Mobley peaked above $8k in salary last year, and with no Allen or Wade he is going to be a very busy man today and should smash his current price.
- More guys priced too low and in cash game consideration include Tyler Herro ($6,300), Chet Holmgren ($6,500), Jalen Williams ($6,000), Scoot Henderson ($5,800), Jabari Smith ($5,600), Mark Williams ($5,300), Xavier Tillman ($5,000), and Keegan Murray ($5,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!