NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values For 3/24/2022
Five games on tap for today’s slate with the Pacers, Grizzlies, and Suns on back-to-backs. We have some big time names already out in Giannis, Morant, DeRozan, Middleton, Brogdon, and Kuzma and a ton of value already in play while Chris Paul and Larry Nance are on track to return. The Sweet 16 is also starting tonight, so get in those second chance pools for maximum basketball sweatage tonight! (unless you’re superhuman and have a bracket still alive somewhere).
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s helpful DFS tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Looking at NBA Starting Lineups the Bucks and Wizards will face off without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton or Kyle Kuzma with Bobby Portis, Wesley Matthews and Rui Hachimura likely to start for each. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday will be very popular plays getting nice usage bumps having to carry most of their respective offenses.
The Pacers will be without Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, and Isaiah Jackson tonight so fire up Tyrese Haliburton (if active) and Buddy Hield again especially on FanDuel where both are way too cheap while Justin Anderson will likely start again and is the stone minimum price on DK looking at 30+ minutes.
Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, and Brandon Clarke were all ruled out around 2PM EST so it’s the Tyus Jones show again while Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson will have to carry a lot of the offense as well and all three are top plays tonight while Steven Adams has more appeal now too.
The Raptors remain without Malachi Flynn and Gary Trent while OG Anunoby will return today which will push Achiuwa or Birch to the bench.
The Bulls won’t have DeMar DeRozan tonight so we could see Patrick Williams start while the Pelicans likely remain without Brandon Ingram but should get Larry Nance back from his knee injury. Don’t expect Nance to start or see meaningful minutes in his first game back, but over time he will eat in to Jones and Hayes minutes and usage.
The Nuggets don’t have any changes with Nnaji remaining out but the Suns have some big news with Chris Paul on track to return tonight. He is just $6,500 on FanDuel so if we hear he won’t have any kind of minutes limit that is too good of a price to fade. This news makes Payne pretty much unusable while the other Sun’s starters all take slight hits on their ceilings.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
There’s a handful of questionable tags in The Situation Room, but overall it’s pretty quiet, which is to be expected for only five games.
Ja Morant was ruled out the night before yesterday’s game, which is concerning as players close to returning usually get a questionable or doubtful tag before being ruled out, so I would not be surprised if Morant is ruled out on the Grizzlies’ first injury report. For now though we have to assume he’s questionable at best, and if active would be a very strong play in the highest projected game total of the slate against Indy , who is on a b2b along with Morant’s teammates. If Morant ends up out Tyus Jones should start again and his price is still too cheap to fade on any site while Desmond Bane also has big time upside even though he’s over $7k on both sites now.
UPDATE: Morant is OUT — Brooks and Clarke also OUT
The other big status to monitor is DeMar DeRozan dealing with a left groin strain. Running a CourtIQ with DeRozan off the floor we see Zach LaVine scoring 1.40 FPPM with a team high 34.7% usage rate making him a clear top play of the slate if no DDR especially with his salary under $8k on both sites. Nikola Vucevic would also be a top target with a 28.5% usage rate and scoring 1.31 FPPM with DeRozan off the floor especially on FanDuel where he is the cheapest he’s been all season at $6,700. “(player-popup #patrick-williams)Patrick Williams”:/players/patrick-williams-2439190’ also sees +12.8% usage bump in just a 23 minute sample but if he sees over 20 minutes tonight he should be in play for under $4k on both sites.
UPDATE: DeRozan is OUT
I’m not sure why OG Anunoby is listed questionable on the official NBA report, as there are quotes saying his return is unclear and he’s likely out today so we are going with doubtful. Gary Trent is also officially questionable, but we are leaning doubtful as he had no practice yesterday and there’s speculation he’ll sit another game, so look for Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam to carry the Raptor’s offense tonight with Chris Boucher being the next highest upside play on the team.
UPDATE: Trent is OUT, Anunoby is IN
The Pacers released their injury report at 2:30PM EST with Tyrese Haliburton and Goga Bitadze as questionable. Brogdon, Duarte, and Jackson are out so Buddy Hield is looking at major usage tonight especially if Haliburton ends up out. He is a lock on FanDuel at $5,600 and still in play on DK for $7,300. Jalen Smith was ruled out around 6:40PM EST so the Pacers could be very thin at center if Bitadze doesn’t suit up.
UPDATE: Haliburton and Bitadze are IN
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
If you’re not jamming in Jokic on FanDuel then the first guy I’d consider locking in is Nikola Vucevic at the previously mentioned cheapest price he’s been all season of $6,700. This is just way too cheap with DeRozan out especially given the matchup with Jonas Valanciunas who by our defense vs. archetype grid is the 3rd best possible matchup for versatile bigs. I also love the prices of Zach LaVine ($7,200) and Alex Caruso ($4,400) who like Vucevic are too cheap with DeRozan out. Tyrese Haliburton ($7,500) and Buddy Hield ($5,600) both saw price drops overnight after monster games and with Brogdon and Duarte out again today I will be immediately locking in Hield and if Haliburton plays through his Q tag he will probably be too cheap to fade as well. With Giannis and Middleton out Jrue Holiday is too cheap at $8,200 and could be the highest-owned player today while Bobby Portis at $5,000 will also be a lock value play. With Morant and Brooks now out Tyus Jones is a lock for me at $5,100 while Desmond Bane ($7,500) and Jaren Jackson ($6,600) are in strong consideration as well. Other strong projected p/$ value plays I’m considering include Will Barton ($4,200), Rui Hachimura ($4,600), Aaron Gordon ($4,900), Monte Morris ($4,500), and Jae Crowder ($4,400).
It’s a slightly different story with the Bulls on DraftKings as Vucevic is $1,200 more expensive at $7,900 but is still a very strong play while Caruso ($4,600) and LaVine ($7,700) are a bit more expensive than FD but have big upside with DeRozan out with LaVine being my preferred target. A couple big men under $5k are standing out to me in Rui Hachimura ($4,500) and Goga Bitadze ($4,900) as both should see 27+ minutes and should pay off those salaries pretty easily. Jrue Holiday is again way too cheap at $8,000 with no Giannis or Middleton while Portis isn’t as much of a lock at $6,500 and I’d rather target Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen or Pat Connaughton for more Bucks exposure. Lock in Tyus Jones ($4,300) with Morant and Brooks out while Desmond Bane has a nice discount compared to FD at just $7,100. Other value plays I like with strong p/$ projections include Raul Neto ($3,800), Corey Kispert ($4,100), Monte Morris ($4,600), and Aaron Gordon ($5,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
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