NBA DFS Projections Preview | Optimizer Picks, Lineup Changes, Key Injuries: Friday, 3/18/2022
Welcome back to another massive NBA DFS day with 12 games on today’s slate. After yesterday’s one game, this is going to feel like information overload, but that’s why we break it down step by step with RG’s awesome tools. We also have a lot of information to work with as no teams are on a back-to-back, so we have updated injury reports for everyone along with the fact that only four of the twelve games tip-off after 8PM EST, so we should know a lot players’ statuses before lock. Hopefully everyone’s bracket is still alive in your pools as I am absolutely toast having picked Iowa to make the finals, but at least I can just enjoy the madness now with less to sweat! (cries uncontrollably) — Combining NBA and NCAA today there’s 28 total basketball games to enjoy and I’m not sure why this isn’t a national holiday, but let’s just pretend it’s an extension of St. Patrick’s Day and drink a lot of beer, get some luck in our lineups & bets, and enjoy some hoops all day!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Let’s start with the Jazz on NBA Starting Lineups, who remain without Bojan Bogdanovic and Danuel House but will also be without Donovan Mitchell. This is by far the biggest new name out today as Mitchell owns a 33% usage rate on the season, so let’s look at the CourtIQ with Utah’s projected available players today. Jordan Clarkson immediately stands out as the biggest beneficiary seeing a +7.8% usage increase for a team high 34.8% and should be one of the first guys you plug in today regardless if he comes off the bench still. I prefer Mike Conley on DK over FD for the price while Rudy Gobert looks to be too cheap on both sites while Royce ONeale should be a fine source of salary relief at under $5k. I won’t be on Juancho Hernangomez or Rudy Gay as its just too big a of a slate to use low-floor guys like that while Nickeil Alexander-Walker will be on my radar only if he ends up starting.
Another big lineup change is with the Pacers, who are without Isaiah Jackson due to a concussion. Jalen Smith will likely start for him at center and is a very strong play regardless of Goga Bitadze status (currently questionable) but would be looking at major minutes if Bitadze ends up out. Smith has been averaging over 25 FPPG since early February with Jackson available, so it’s safe to say his floor should be around 30 FP today with 45+ FP upside. Oshae Brissett and Terry Taylor will also have to help cover some of Jackson’s minutes and are fine value plays.
The Nets are at home today, so we again see no Kyrie Irving, so expect to see Goran Dragic start and be a solid value play around $5k on both sites. Seth Curry will return from his left ankle soreness, so Patty Mills won’t be in play for me today.
Memphis and Atlanta have big PG news to monitor, but currently Ja Morant and Trae Young (both Q) are in the projected lineup along with Danilo Gallinari, who left last game early with an arm injury. If Morant or Young end up out look for Tyus Jones and Delon Wright to draw the starts and both would be top value plays. If Gallinari can’t go I will be considering DeAndre Hunter on all sites as John Collins remains out and he’ll have to play a lot of PF minutes.
Other lineup notes to be aware of are Spencer Dinwiddie likely starting again for the absent Reggie Bullock, Lamar Stevens likely continuing to start for the injured Dean Wade, and Josh Richardson likely starting as long as Doug McDermott remains out.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
It’s an understatement to say The Situation Room is loaded with big names today as we currently have seven questionable players with an impact rating of 10. LeBron and his knee soreness is there again, but we should know his status before lock and if he ends up out I will be all over Russell Westbrook on FanDuel for just $6,600 as well as Malik Monk on both sites for under $6k.
Joel Embiid played through this same questionable tag last game going for over 60 FP and with no game tomorrow I’d expect him to play, but if he does end up out look for DeAndre Jordan to start and be a decent value play while James Harden will get a big usage bump and be a top play today along with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, who are very cheap on FanDuel.
The Heat could be without Jimmy Butler, who is dealing with an ankle sprain, and if so I would consider Kyle Lowry on FanDuel and Bam Adebayo on DraftKings where they are the cheapest. PJ Tucker and Caleb Martin are also questionable, so Max Strus could be a strong value play if all three of Butler, Tucker, and Martin end up out.
As mentioned earlier Ja Morant and Trae Young are both questionable today with back and quad injuries respectively and hopefully we learn their status before lock as Tyus Jones would become a lock value play with no Morant while Delon Wright, Kevin Huerter, DeAndre Hunter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic would get big usage bumps and all would be in play depending on your positional needs.
The last two big time questionable tags are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and DeAaron Fox dealing with ankle and hand injuries respectively. There’s a chance we learn SGA’s status before lock, but if we don’t be prepared to swap in at least one of Tre Mann and Theo Maledon, who would be looking at major minutes if SGA sits. We almost certainly won’t know Fox’s status pre-lock as his game starts at 10PM and if he ends up out I will be looking to get in Domantas Sabonis, especially on FanDuel at just $8,100 as well as Davion Mitchell, who would likely start for him and is way too cheap for the likely 33+ minutes he’d see.
Jae Crowder is another pretty big questionable tag to monitor as Torrey Craig is still very cheap on both sites and would likely draw the start again after going for almost 50 FP in 34 minutes as Crowder’s replacement last game. The Pelicans have a couple questionable PGs in Devonte Graham and Jose Alvarado and if both end up out I will be all over CJ McCollum, who’d be looking at major PG minutes. Josh Richardson is also now Q with left calf tightness and if out would leave the Spurs pretty thin at guard with Walker or Primo likely starting for him.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
He was my favorite play on FanDuel before looking at HQ and this just confirms it as Jordan Clarkson at $5,000 is basically a “free square” there today as the clear top projected p/$ play. Goran Dragic is right behind him at $4,800, but depending on how other PG news shakes out today he might not make the cut if guys like Tyus Jones, Tre Mann, Davion Mitchell, and Delon Wright emerge as stronger value plays as we learn more news later. The more I look the more it’s becoming clear just how loaded PG is today for value as Brandon Williams is still under $$5,500 while Alec Burks, Tyrese Maxey and Kyle Lowry are all under $6k and could all easily go for over 30 FP. Fortunately some of these cheap PG’s are also SG eligible, so we can fit a few of them in, which is likely the way I will go today and spend up at other positions. One name that is not a PG and standing out as an immediate play to lock in is RJ Barrett at just $7,000. This is the lowest price he has been since February which makes zero sense as he’s been averaging over 35 FP forever, is coming off a 50+ FP game, and gets a great matchup at home against Washington. Some other guys whose prices I’m loving include Rudy Gobert, Jakob Poeltl, Domantas Sabonis, Jaylen Brown, Dillon Brooks, and DeAndre Hunter.
As has been the case lately DraftKings prices are a bit sharper today as most of the PG’s mentioned already are priced higher there, but I will still be on Jordan Clarkson at $5,800 and depending on injury news Dragic, Jones, Wright, Mann, Maledon, and Mitchell could all be in consideration based on the statuses of Morant, Young, SGA, and Fox. Mike Conley is also in the PG mix for me on DK as he’s $700 cheaper than FD and should be looking at an easy 30+ FP floor with no Mitchell which is great for his $5,700 salary. RJ Barrett isn’t as much of a lock as he is on FD, but for $7,900 I will absolutely be considering him on DK too. Rudy Gobert at $7,400 is way too cheap with all of the Jazz guys out while Clint Capela is also looking solid at $6,300 with no Collins and potentially no Gallinari. Some other names I’m currently considering include Royce ONeale, Josh Richardson, Deandre Ayton, Jalen Smith, Christian Wood, and Torrey Craig (if Crowder out).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn