NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
Hopefully everyone got the rust off the wheels last night and are back in DFS mode, as we have another nice NBA DFS slate with nine games. including three teams on a back-to-back (PHO, MIN, OKC). The biggest news of the slate is James Harden’s debut for the 76ers as well as the Lakers’ starting a long stretch with no Anthony Davis. Oh, and it’s also Fred VanVleet’s birthday if you believe in narrative street!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
At first glance of our NBA Starting Lineups page, James Harden in the 76ers lineup jumps right out as the biggest change. We know Harden is a usage machine, so his presence will definitely affect the upside of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris. It’s probably best to wait and see a game or two before going too heavy on any 76ers player, but Harden or Embiid can always go off and be a slate-winner.
From one superstar entering a lineup to another leaving one Anthony Davis will be out a minimum of four weeks, leaving a lot of minutes and usage up for grabs. Running a CourtIQ with Davis off the floor, we see LeBron James and Russell Westbrook both at around a 30% usage rate, while Carmelo Anthony is on track to return and will be a factor with his 22% usage rate.
Malcolm Brogdon is also back after a long absence while Fred VanVleet and Kevin Porter Jr. should also return after missing their final game before the break. Sticking with PG news, Kemba Walker will sit the rest of the season, so look for Alec Burks to start and Immanuel Quickley to back him up with Derrick Rose now out indefinitely.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Today has a bit more unknowns than yesterday, as we see a good amount of “Questionable” tags in The Situation Room, and it’s almost a guarantee we will see more of them as the day goes on, especially with the three teams on the back-to-back. Make sure to be following the RG NBA News Twitter feed for all your crucial news throughout the day.
The most notable “Q” tag is LeBron James with left knee soreness as Anthony Davis is already out James playing or not could swing the slate, as it’s the last game of the night, so late-swapping could be a huge edge. Being the last game of the night, we could see James’ ownership (be sure to check out our Projected Ownerships here) be lower than usual as people don’t want the risk of him sitting and not being around a phone/computer to swap him out. If we get news after lock that James is sitting then swapping to Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, and even Malik Monk (Avery Bradley is out) could be huge as they have the top 3 usage rates with Davis and James off the floor with Westbrook seeing a +6.9% usage increase.
Other names standing out to me include Fred VanVleet, who is officially questionable but is expected to play (who sits on their birthday?), RJ Barrett, who is also officially questionable but got a full practice in and seems on track to play, and a few lesser names of importance with Q tags in Thomas Bryant, Chris Duarte, and Reggie Bullock, whose absences would all help the upside a bit of guys like Kyle Kuzma, Buddy Hield, and Josh Green. Make sure to check our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on these players and many more with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
UPDATE: OG Anunoby is OUT with a fractured finger – here is the CourtIQ with him off the floor. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet both gain more than 2% of usage and score about 1.15 FPPM. Khem Birch will join the starting lineup with Precious Achiuwa backing him up at center.
UPDATE: Josh Giddey is OUT with hip soreness. Here is the CourtIQ with the available Thunder tonight; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with a 36% usage rate and 1.74 FPPM.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
Now let’s see how this all affects the big picture of tonight’s slate over at LineupHQ — you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool, where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel Cameron Johnson looks like the top value play of the night at $4,200, as he will likely start again with Paul, Holiday and Payne all out. Coming off a 37 fantasy point game in 30 minutes last night I’m expecting similar production in what should be a closer game against the Pelicans tonight. Alec Burks is another name standing out to me, as he will likely start tonight with Walker and Rose out and at just $5.1k he should see enough minutes to pay that price off. A couple higher priced options with great pt/$ projections are Devin Booker ($9,000) and Kyle Kuzma ($7,600), who both have sky high ceilings with Paul and Beal out. On DraftKings I still like Cameron Johnson, Alec Burks, and Devin Booker, but Kyle Kuzma looks to be a bit too pricey at $8,900. Some other value options to consider include Goga Bitadze, Devin Vassell, Eric Gordon, and Jae Crowder.
If we get news of LeBron James being out then I’m sure Russell Westbrook will project as the top pt/$ play, especially on FanDuel where he is just $7,000, while Carmelo Anthony at $4,900 on FD and DK will also project as a top value play. As of now Dwight Howard is projecting as a strong pt/$ play, but the unknowns of who will start between he and DeAndre Jordan along with just how many minutes he’ll even get if he does start makes me a little hesitant to trust, especially with it being the last game of the night.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a key injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn