NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 5th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics – 7:00 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 206.0 | | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyus Jones | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 6 | DvP | 13 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Happy Friday everyone. As always, thanks for reading the Grind Down. The first game on tap tonight is between the Wolves and Celtics. This is a favorable matchup for one side and a terrible matchup for the other. Considering the fact that the Wolves are projected to score seven fewer points than their season average, I bet you can guess which side has the difficult matchup. On the season, Boston is ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.
The Celtics don’t have any holes in their defense, as they are ranked eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers. Andrew Wiggins has played well in the absence of Jeff Teague and is still only $5,700 on FanDuel, but this isn’t the type of matchup that suits his skill set. He relies on scoring for most of his fantasy production and I’m not sure how efficient he’s going to be against this defense. Karl-Anthony Towns is also an easy fade, as the Celtics are ranked sixth in efficiency against centers and have the 12th best rebounding differential of any team in the NBA. With nine other games to target, the Wolves can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -7.2 (20 of 20)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | $6,000 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 0.78 | 12.2% | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,800 | $8,400 | $16,900 | 40.2 | 5.9 | 37.3 | -0.8 | 1.08 | 23.9% | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $5,700 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 28.9 | 2.2 | 36.3 | -2.2 | 0.79 | 21.0% | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,800 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 26.8 | -0.9 | 33.6 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 12.7% | 12 | 2 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,200 | $9,000 | $16,500 | 42.4 | -0.2 | 35.7 | -0.5 | 1.19 | 19.8% | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 15.5 | -0.4 | 18.8 | 2.3 | 0.82 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have won four games in a row, yet they are only listed as 3.5-point favorites tonight against the Wolves at home. While that seems low, it does make me feel better about targeting players from Boston. As long as the game stays competitive, the starters will see a full complement of minutes. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Wolves are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. The Celtics have an implied total of 104.8 points, which is slightly above their season average.
Kyrie Irving didn’t have a great game against his former team the other night, but the Celtics picked up a win. That game was a great example of how this season has played out for Irving. I’ve expected more from him when it comes to fantasy production, but he’s turned into a great team player and that’s clearly shown in their 31-10 record. The fact that Jeff Teague is out actually hurts Irving’s fantasy appeal, as Tyus Jones has one of the highest DRPM grades of any point guard in basketball. I would rather take a shot on Terry Rozier off the bench, who is averaging 30 fantasy points over his last four games.
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have both played well this season and should both see minutes in the low to mid-30s. Of the two, I slightly prefer Tatum, who spends a lot of his time at the four (meaning he won’t be matched up against Jimmy Butler all game). With Marcus Morris doubtful, Tatum has a chance to play 35 minutes and he’s only $5,300 on FanDuel. Al Horford has some appeal on FanDuel ($7,000) as well. Taj Gibson has struggled with stretch fours and Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled to defend opposing centers all season.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Morris (Doubtful)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (9 of 20)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,400 | $8,200 | $16,200 | 37.8 | 0.3 | 32.3 | 0.5 | 1.17 | 29.5% | 15 | 13 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 26.4 | 4.2 | 31.2 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 17.8% | 22 | 11 | 1 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,300 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 26.6 | -0.4 | 31.1 | 3.4 | 0.86 | 15.6% | 12 | 7 | 28 |
| Al Horford | $7,000 | $7,400 | $14,000 | 33.7 | -2.2 | 32.5 | -0.4 | 1.04 | 17.7% | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 15.1 | 3.2 | 18.3 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 13.8% | 26 | 19 | 17 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,700 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 23.9 | 2.6 | 30.6 | 0.7 | 0.78 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $4,300 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 20.3 | 9.9 | 23.2 | -0.8 | 0.88 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (FD), Al Horford (FD), Terry Rozier (FD GPP)
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 209.5 | | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 25 | DvP | 3 | 13 | 30 | 12 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 27 | 1 | 27 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 9 | 26 | 2 | |
Detroit Pistons
There are two injuries from the Pistons that we need to monitor heading into lineup lock. Luckily, this is one of the first games to tip-off, so we will know the availability of both Andre Drummond and Stanley Johnson well before lineups lock. Detroit comes into the game as 6-point underdogs against the Sixers, who have been very good defensively when you look at their efficiency (second) and rebounding differential (second). With that said, Philadelphia plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, which offsets some of that efficiency.
In his last three starts, Ish Smith is averaging 31 minutes and 32 fantasy points per game. He has filled in nicely for Reggie Jackson and you can argue that he’s actually a better fit for this offense (pass-first mentality). Smith offers a high floor, but his price has come up across the industry. He’s not my favorite point-per-dollar play in this slate, but he might crack the top five in my CVR point guard rankings. Avery Bradley could fly under the radar tonight and his price on DraftKings ($5,300) is discounted. He sees a 2% usage bump with Jackson off the floor and a 5% usage bump with both Jackson and Drummond (questionable) off the floor. With Johnson’s status in doubt, Bradley could potentially see extended playing time and increased usage.
We have to take a wait and see approach with the Pistons’ frontcourt. If Drummond is active, he makes a tremendous tournament play, assuming he isn’t on a minute restriction. Drummond and Joel Embiid have gone after each other on social media and have already had two epic battles on the court this season (47 FPs per game for Drummond). If he is unable to suit up, DFS hero Boban Marjanovic would likely draw another start. He may not be in the best shape (which limits his minute upside), but he has been a per-minute monster throughout his career. Tobias Harris and Anthony Tolliver would also become sneaky tournament plays if Drummond is ruled out.
Notable Injuries
Andre Drummond (Questionable)
Stanley Johnson (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.2 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (11 of 20)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,100 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 19.2 | 8.4 | 21.0 | 8.5 | 0.91 | 24.4% | 9 | 19 | 1 |
| Avery Bradley | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 23.6 | 4.2 | 31.5 | 6.4 | 0.75 | 21.1% | 28 | 25 | 27 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 21.5 | 12.2 | 0.62 | 11.5% | 12 | 21 | 1 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,200 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 28.8 | 1.6 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 0.87 | 20.7% | 10 | 20 | 27 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,500 | $9,100 | $18,600 | 43.4 | 9.9 | 32.7 | 3.5 | 1.33 | 18.4% | 11 | 25 | 1 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 12.7 | -5.0 | 20.0 | 1.9 | 0.63 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Boban Marjanovic | $5,300 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 1.24 | 24.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Avery Bradley (DK), Andre Drummond (GPP – if active)
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (FD), Ish Smith, Boban Marjanovic and Tobias Harris (if Drummond is out)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won three games in a row and are only a half game behind the Pacers for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They draw a difficult matchup on paper against the Pistons, but Detroit is playing on the road and potentially short-handed. The Sixers come into the game with an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the sixth highest on the board and nearly identical to their season average.
Ben Simmons had a five-game stretch where he failed to surpass 33 fantasy points, but he’s bounced back nicely in his last two outings, scoring 54 and 46 fantasy points. This is one of the cheapest price points we’ve seen him at for a long time, especially on FanDuel ($8,600). While he’s not a true point guard, the Pistons have struggled to defend primary ball-handlers in each of the last two seasons. Robert Covington has an appealing price point across the industry and we have to like his matchup. The Pistons are ranked 27th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against small forwards this season. Covington deserves consideration in all formats.
Dario Saric is an easy fade any time Joel Embiid is active. The reasoning is fairly simple — his minutes and usage go down when Embiid plays and the sites currently have Saric priced up in the event that Embiid is ruled out. If you look at his splits, Saric is averaging 24 fantasy points per game with Embiid active and 34 fantasy points per game without him. Embiid himself is an intriguing tournament play. He has played well against Andre Drummond this season and would be a difficult matchup for Boban Marjanovic if Drummond is ruled out.
Notable Injuries
Justin Anderson (Probable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (12 of 20)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,600 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 42.6 | -3.9 | 35.9 | -3.0 | 1.19 | 23.3% | 15 | 3 | 16 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,300 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.7 | -0.7 | 33.1 | -3.4 | 0.78 | 19.0% | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| Robert Covington | $6,000 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 29.8 | -7.2 | 32.5 | -3.6 | 0.92 | 15.7% | 27 | 30 | 9 |
| Dario Saric | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 27.1 | 11.3 | 30.6 | 1.4 | 0.89 | 17.6% | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,500 | $10,100 | $18,300 | 45.7 | 0.2 | 31.5 | 2.3 | 1.45 | 27.4% | 15 | 18 | 2 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,400 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 20.8 | 2.0 | 24.3 | 3.0 | 0.86 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (FD), Robert Covington
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (DK), Joel Embiid
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 217.5 | | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.0 | Vegas Spread | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 20 | DvP | 6 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 13 | 25 | 28 | 3 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 25 | 3 | 15 | 20 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and have moved up to second place in the Eastern Conference standings. I’m going to steal a statistic from my main man Andy Means here — since December 1st, they have played at the second-fastest pace of any team in basketball. This has led to higher scoring games, and consequently, more fantasy production. They come into tonight’s game against the Bucks with an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the third highest on the board.
These two teams just faced each other on New Year’s Day. In that game, Kyle Lowry played 41 minutes and scored 45 fantasy points. The Raptors have been blowing teams out recently, which has hurt Lowry’s upside, but we don’t have to worry about that tonight with a one-point spread. Lowry is an intriguing play in all formats, even in a fairly difficult matchup against Eric Bledsoe. The Bucks have struggled against wing players at times this season and DeMar DeRozan can certainly attest to that. He scored 52 actual points against Milwaukee less than a week ago. I know it’s scary, but I will actually be fading DeRozan tonight. I have a hard time paying a premium for a player that is going to be over-owned. Dollar for dollar, give me Lowry over DeRozan.
The rest of the Raptors are mediocre plays against the Bucks, who have been very tough on power forwards. Serge Ibaka is affordable, but I’m certainly not looking to force him into any of my lineups. The matchup bodes well for Jonas Valanciunas, but his minutes are trending in the wrong direction. Jakob Poeltl provides decent value off the bench, but I prefer to target him in a smaller slate where we are starved for value. It would be a dis-service if I didn’t mention Delon Wright and his 61 fantasy points against the Bulls. While I’m a fan (he went to my alma mater), I will not be chasing those points at an elevated price point.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.6 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (16 of 20)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,500 | $7,300 | $14,800 | 35.1 | -0.4 | 32.9 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 21.5% | 7 | 11 | 13 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $9,300 | $8,900 | $16,400 | 40.1 | 9.1 | 34.6 | 2.1 | 1.16 | 28.2% | 16 | 7 | 25 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 12.9 | -2.0 | 21.2 | 2.2 | 0.61 | 10.7% | 9 | 1 | 28 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,900 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.8 | 1.6 | 28.2 | 2.3 | 0.95 | 17.4% | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 22.4 | -4.6 | 20.9 | -1.8 | 1.07 | 17.3% | 29 | 20 | 3 |
| Delon Wright | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 19.5 | 13.6 | 20.9 | 2.5 | 0.93 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,100 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.1 | 1.3 | 17.7 | 3.1 | 0.96 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have lost five of their last ten games, but are still tied for fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. They fell short against the Raptors on New Year’s Day, but get another crack at them tonight, only this time the game is being played in Milwaukee. This should be a pace-up game for the Bucks, as the Raptors have been playing at a very fast pace recently. Perhaps that helps explain why the Bucks’ implied total (108.3 points) is the fifth highest on the board, even though the Raptors have a top ten defense on the season.
Eric Bledsoe is back to playing his 30-32 minutes each night. When the Bucks had all of those injuries, Bledsoe was playing 35+ minutes each game. With a matchup against Kyle Lowry, he’s a fairly easy fade in all formats. Khris Middleton has 40-minute upside tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked 29th in efficiency against shooting guards this season. Middleton scored 35 fantasy points against Toronto a few nights ago and his price is very appealing on both FanDuel ($7,200) and DraftKings ($7,000). Per usual, I plan to have more Middleton shares than the field.
Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t have the best individual matchup, but it’s hard not to like his price point. This is the cheapest that we’ve seen him in quite some time and it’s not he is facing the Spurs. This will be a fast-paced game and the Bucks are projected to score two points more than their season average. This is a situation where I’m willing to overlook the difficult matchup and play a superstar at a discounted price point. John Henson and Malcolm Brogdon have both played well recently, but they are a tad too expensive in a slate this size.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (7 of 20)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,200 | $7,300 | $13,600 | 33.8 | 0.2 | 31.3 | -0.9 | 1.08 | 24.4% | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.0 | -0.5 | 30.5 | -3.9 | 0.52 | 9.8% | 29 | 19 | 25 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,200 | $7,000 | $13,900 | 35.4 | -1.4 | 37.3 | 0.6 | 0.95 | 22.5% | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,000 | $10,700 | $19,100 | 54.4 | -7.9 | 37.9 | -0.2 | 1.44 | 28.5% | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| John Henson | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 23.1 | 3.2 | 24.2 | 3.1 | 0.95 | 13.1% | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.9 | 0.5 | 30.3 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – None
New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 202.5 | | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 7 | DvP | 26 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 9 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 23 | 7 | 11 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 12 | 17 | 9 | 25 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks have been a tough team to trust over the last few weeks. They forget to show up to some games, their starters have been inconsistent, and they are randomly getting huge performances from players off their bench. Tonight they head to Miami for a difficult matchup against the Heat, who are ranked 26th in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. The Knicks have the lowest implied total (99 points) on the board and the third worst projected point differential (-4.3 points).
The spot for the Knicks isn’t great as a whole, but pricing is the most important part of DFS. A player can be a good play in a bad matchup if the price is right and vice-versa. Kristaps Porzingis is only $7,800 on DraftKings. When playing well, he’s priced well over $9,000. I know the matchup isn’t great, but Porzingis is averaging 34 minutes and 39 fantasy points over his last four games. I’m willing to play him in tournaments, hopefully at low ownership. Michael Beasley is also viable in tournaments. Over his last four games, he is averaging 26 minutes and 40 fantasy points per game. Very few will be willing to pay $5,300 for him on DraftKings, but he makes a lot of sense in large-field GPPs.
Notable Injuries
Tim Hardaway (Out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (18 of 20)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 20.3 | 3.8 | 26.2 | 2.7 | 0.77 | 17.6% | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 25.1 | -0.3 | 32.4 | 2.3 | 0.77 | 16.7% | 8 | 4 | 23 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 18.6 | -1.5 | 0.49 | 10.5% | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,800 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 40.0 | -1.2 | 32.4 | 1.8 | 1.23 | 28.5% | 8 | 13 | 11 |
| Enes Kanter | $4,900 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.5 | -10.4 | 25.0 | -6.9 | 1.14 | 18.7% | 21 | 7 | 1 |
| Michael Beasley | $6,500 | $5,300 | $11,800 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 18.5 | 7.8 | 1.09 | 24.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 15.9 | 3.3 | 21.2 | 2.9 | 0.75 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (DK GPP), Michael Beasley (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (DK Cash), Michael Beasley (DK Cash)
Miami Heat
The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs as the seventh seed if the regular season ended today. While the Knicks have been stout defensively this season, they aren’t nearly as effective on the road. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 103.5 points, which is nearly three points above their season average. The fact that the game has a low spread makes the Heat even more appealing, as we can expect a full complement of minutes from the starters.
Goran Dragic has been dealing with a number of injuries this season, but finally seems to be healthy. He has played 36 and 38 minutes in his last two games, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in each. I expect him to keep rolling tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 28th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. I hate to say it, but Dragic is one of my favorite point-per-dollar plays at any position tonight. Tyler Johnson has scored at least 29 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and should see minutes in the mid-30s at low ownership.
Kelly Olynyk has been on a tear over the last couple of weeks, but will have to deal with Kristaps Porzingis tonight. While I believe in hot streaks, I have a hard time paying a premium for a player in a bad matchup. Hassan Whiteside is an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings. He got into early foul trouble against the GOAT, Boban Marjanovic the other night and only played 17 minutes. Assuming he stays out of foul trouble tonight, I expect him to play 28-30 minutes against the likes of Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn.
Notable Injuries
Dion Waiters (Out)
Justise Winslow (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.7 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (13 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (5 of 20)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,800 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 29.5 | 8.8 | 31.4 | 0.6 | 0.94 | 24.9% | 28 | 26 | 16 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 22.3 | 3.2 | 29.2 | 6.1 | 0.76 | 17.6% | 5 | 15 | 12 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,200 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 24.0 | 8.7 | 33.5 | 2.2 | 0.72 | 15.6% | 22 | 11 | 17 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $7,000 | $6,100 | $12,600 | 22.7 | 10.7 | 23.3 | 7.0 | 0.98 | 17.2% | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,600 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 34.7 | -8.0 | 25.6 | -4.7 | 1.35 | 19.6% | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 16.3 | 5.9 | 23.7 | 8.3 | 0.69 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson, Hassan Whiteside (DK Cash)
Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 212.5 | | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 22 | DvP | 24 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 26 | 29 | 7 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 27 | |
Chicago Bulls
When I first saw this game on the schedule, I expected it to be one that I avoided in all formats. The more I look into it, the more I like it. The game has a 4.5-point spread and a total of 212.5 points, which is much higher than I was expecting. Both of these teams struggle when it comes to defensive efficiency and the Bulls have been playing at a much faster pace recently. Even though the Bulls’ implied total of 104 points is the ninth lowest overall, it’s nearly three points above their season average.
Kris Dunn did not play well against the Raptors, yet he still managed to score 28 fantasy points. He can fill up the stat sheet, which makes him an excellent play in all formats, His price has come down a bit across the industry and he gets to face a rookie (Dennis Smith) that has basically been a turnstile on defense this season. I’m buying back in on Dunn, especially on DraftKings ($7,100). Justin Holiday continues to provide a high floor and a high ceiling. He’s a solid cash game option if you need a shooting guard in his price range.
I was worried about Lauri Markkanen’s playing time with Nikola Mirotic back in the mix, but he has actually played at least 28 minutes in five straight games. In his last two games, Markkanen has scored 34 and 31 fantasy points. Given the way he plays, I imagine he grew up watching Dirk Nowitzki and now he gets to square off against him. If you don’t mind a little risk in your cash games, Markkanen is awfully appealing at a price of $5,700 on FanDuel. I will be avoiding the rest of the Bulls, but there are certainly more options from this team that I originally anticipated.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 101.4 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (6 of 20)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,900 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 31.9 | 1.6 | 28.9 | 2.9 | 1.10 | 24.6% | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,900 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 27.1 | 2.7 | 33.9 | 3.5 | 0.80 | 17.2% | 7 | 12 | 26 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.7 | 0.6 | 28.5 | 0.1 | 0.76 | 15.7% | 28 | 13 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,700 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 27.7 | 5.8 | 29.7 | 1.1 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 5 | 15 | 7 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,800 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 24.4 | 0.3 | 29.0 | -3.0 | 0.84 | 18.3% | 25 | 22 | 15 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,800 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 30.6 | 4.2 | 25.3 | -0.3 | 1.21 | 24.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 19.0 | -3.4 | 23.3 | -0.1 | 0.82 | 12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Justin Holiday (Cash), Lauri Markkanen (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (FD), Justin Holiday (GPP), Lauri Markkanen (DK)
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have won five of their last ten games and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. The Bulls have played at a quicker pace ever since Nikola Mirotic returned from his injury and are now ranked 11th in pace on the season. The Bulls are also ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 108.5 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and seven points above their season average.
Dennis Smith is coming off of a nice four-game stretch, averaging 31 fantasy points. Kris Dunn is an excellent defender, but the Bulls are ranked 24th as a whole in fantasy points allowed to point guards. While I don’t mind Smith in tournaments, I like the discount with J.J. Barea on DraftKings ($1,000 cheaper). Wesley Matthews is a sneaky value play tonight. The Bulls don’t defend shooting guards well and Matthews should play 35 minutes in a pace-up game.
Harrison Barnes has not been in the best of form recently and his price hasn’t fully reflected that. He is still $6,600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If you are making ten lineups tonight, I would consider using Barnes on one of them. Dirk Nowitzki continues to play well for Dallas, averaging 28 fantasy points over his last four games. His price has come up quite a bit, but I like his matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 27th against power forwards and 13th against centers.
Notable Injuries
None
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 101.6 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (4 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 6.9 (2 of 20)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,900 | $6,300 | $13,100 | 25.5 | 5.2 | 27.8 | 1.5 | 0.92 | 26.2% | 24 | 24 | 5 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 22.4 | 6.1 | 34.3 | -0.5 | 0.65 | 15.3% | 25 | 23 | 5 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,600 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 30.2 | -5.2 | 34.7 | -1.1 | 0.87 | 21.7% | 24 | 17 | 16 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 13.7 | -4.0 | 18.8 | -1.3 | 0.73 | 11.8% | 27 | 25 | 25 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 23.5 | 4.8 | 25.4 | -0.5 | 0.93 | 18.4% | 13 | 5 | 27 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 24.8 | 2.6 | 23.0 | 0.9 | 1.08 | 25.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |