NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 10th

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Detroit Pistons
atlantanba Vegas Total 208.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Implied Team Total 99.8 Implied Team Total 108.8
Pace Projection +/- -2.5 Pace Projection +/- 1.6
Projected Starters Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Taurean Prince Luke Babbitt Dewayne Dedmon Projected Starters Reggie Jackson Avery Bradley Reggie Bullock Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 3 12 22 8 4 DvP 17 29 15 23 26
DRPM -2.98 -1.13 -0.03 -0.53 1.37 DRPM -2.53 -1.09 2.66 1.27 4.86

Happy Friday everyone! It’s always important to realize what you have in life and I for one, have it pretty great. I have the dream job that I’ve wanted my entire life (I used to be an 8-to-5 accountant), as I get to talk and play fantasy sports every single day. I wanted to give a quick thanks to my loyal readers and all RG members because with you, nobody would have an interest in what I have to say. Hopefully along the way, this article will help you at some point, whether it’s through the strategy talk or breaking down the actual games. This article is my thanks to you. Now, let’s dive into the slate!

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have the worst record in the Eastern Conference. They aren’t going back to the playoffs anytime soon and basically have a completely different roster than the one they had a year ago. The big concern when they are on the schedule is the potential for a blowout. They come into tonight’s game against the Pistons as 8.5-point underdogs. This is far from an ideal matchup, as Detroit is ranked 25th in pace of play and eighth in points allowed per game. The Hawks implied total of 99.8 points is one of the lowest on the board.

Before we get into the picks, I should note that this game is not included in FanDuel’s main slate. The best way to attack the Pistons over the last couple of seasons has been with a talented point guard. Unfortunately, Detroit brought in Avery Bradley, who spends a lot of his time defending the opponent’s best player. I’m not sure that Atlanta can hide Reggie Jackson on Kent Bazemore, but I expect them to try. Dennis Schroder is still viable in tournaments thanks to an elite usage rate and an ability to get hot at any time.

Kent Bazemore doesn’t have the same minute upside as a lot of players (typically capped around 30), but he is averaging 28 fantasy points per game this season and could draw the defense of Jackson, who had a DRPM of -2.98 last season. Taurean Prince has been quiet and is not on my radar in a difficult road matchup.

Once again, I will not be chasing Luke Babbitt fantasy production. I will go right back to the John Collins well in tournaments, after he let a lot of people down the other night. Dewayne Dedmon is coming off of his best game of the season, but we can’t expect him to play 35 minutes again and we certainly can’t expect him to play that well against Andre Drummond, who is a good defender and a great rebounder.

Notable Injuries

Erasn Ilyasova (Out)
Mike Muscala (Doubtful)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (10 of 16)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (25 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Dennis Schroder $8,200 $7,300 $13,400 36.4 -3.8 32.3 -1.3 1.13 29.8% 56.4% 3 -2.98
Kent Bazemore $5,800 $5,300 $10,400 27.5 2.5 29.3 0.3 0.94 20.5% 48.3% 12 -1.13
Taurean Prince $6,000 $5,500 $10,100 25.9 -5.1 31.0 -1.6 0.83 18.1% 51.9% 22 -0.03
Luke Babbitt $4,000 $3,700 $7,200 11.6 10.2 18.2 12.7 0.64 12.7% 66.0% 8 -0.53
Dewayne Dedmon $5,800 $4,200 $8,600 22.7 4.4 24.9 2.0 0.91 13.9% 58.9% 4 1.37
John Collins $5,700 $5,100 $10,900 24.3 2.3 20.2 2.5 1.20 19.7% 54.7% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP), John Collins (GPP)


Detroit Pistons

The last time I remember the Pistons being good was in the NBA Finals when nobody gave them a chance against a Lakers team that featured Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton. Ben Wallace and company took care of business and it was the final time we saw Kobe and Shaq play together. My point is that it’s been a long time since the Pistons have been relevant, but they are certainly turning some heads this season with an 8-3 record. The come into tonight’s game against the Hawks as 9-point favorites with an implied total of 108.8 points.

Unlike the Pistons, the Hawks don’t have anywhere to hide Dennis Schroder on defense. Taurean Prince is a good defender, but he’s not equipped to guard the opposing point guard for 30 minutes every night. Targeting point guards against Atlanta will be a strategy of mine time and time again this season. Reggie Jackson has been more consistent this season, both from a playing time and production standpoint. He is only $6,200 on DraftKings tonight, which puts him into consideration in both cash games and tournaments.

Avery Bradley picked up two quick fouls the other night (in two minutes) and continued my season-long theme of targeting players that get into foul trouble in the first quarter. With Stanley Johnson and Jon Leuer both expected to miss tonight’s game, Bradley should play 35+ minutes against a turnover prone team that doesn’t defend wings well. He’s burned us before and I’m sure he’ll burn us again eventually, but this is the breakout spot for Bradley. The stars are aligning. Reggie Bullock will be in the starting lineup to eat minutes, but he’s not really a player we should count on in daily fantasy.

Tobias Harris has taken at least 16 shots in nine games this season. He is being more aggressive on both ends and the fantasy production has followed. The problem is that his price is way up across the industry. I’m going to buy low on Bradley and sell high on Harris in this one. Andre Drummond would be the greatest fantasy player ever if he didn’t pick up two fouls in the first eight minutes of every game. He should eat this frontcourt alive. The Hawks are ranked 29th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential. If you haven’t been playing Drummond this season, I’m not sure what you are waiting for.

Notable Injuries

Jon Leuer (Doubtful)
Stanley Johnson (Doubtful)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (7 of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Reggie Jackson $7,200 $6,200 $12,000 30.6 -4.3 28.6 -0.3 1.07 26.6% 53.7% 17 -2.53
Avery Bradley $6,700 $5,800 $12,500 25.1 4.6 31.2 1.0 0.81 21.5% 53.2% 29 -1.09
Reggie Bullock $3,800 $3,600 $7,100 7.7 -1.7 15.5 3.5 0.49 10.2% 21.8% 15 2.66
Tobias Harris $7,800 $6,600 $12,300 30.1 1.6 33.2 1.4 0.91 22.6% 58.1% 23 1.27
Andre Drummond $10,200 $8,800 $16,200 42.9 6.2 32.8 -0.2 1.31 16.7% 59.0% 26 4.86
Reggie Bullock $3,800 $3,600 $7,100 7.7 -1.7 15.5 3.5 0.49 10.2% 21.8% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley, Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson


Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Boston Celtics
charlottenba Vegas Total 203.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Implied Team Total 99.8 Implied Team Total 103.8
Pace Projection +/- -2.8 Pace Projection +/- 0.4
Projected Starters Kemba Walker Jeremy Lamb Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Dwight Howard Projected Starters Kyrie Irving Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Marcus Morris Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 2 1 16 4 11 DvP 11 25 25 9 22
DRPM -2.16 -0.10 N/A 0.58 2.81 DRPM -1.14 -0.88 2.10 -0.13 2.92

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets continue to play well at home (4-1) and they continue to struggle on the road (1-5). I’m always hesitant to target their players on the road, unless they are in a favorable spot or unless there are injuries that open up some value. Charlotte doesn’t have either of those going for them tonight, as they are the healthiest they’ve been all season and they are facing a stout Celtics’ defense. On the season, Boston is ranked 27th in pace of play, first in points allowed per game, and second in rebounding differential. The sample is large enough that we need to buy in on the Celtics being one of the best defensive teams in basketball. The Hornets have an implied total of only 99.8 points, which is the third lowest on the board and five points below their season average.

Over the last few years, we’ve been able to stream point guards that are facing Kyrie Irving. That is no longer the case. He has improved defensively and has an elite defense around him. The Celtics can also bring Marcus Smart off the bench to help with opposing point guards. I have no interest in Kemba Walker, who is historically better at home anyway. The wings for the Hornets can also be avoided now that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is back in the mix. The one and only play for Charlotte that looks interesting is Dwight Howard. He’s been a double-double machine this season and is only $6,800 on DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

NONE

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (13 of 16)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.6 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (27 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,700 $7,000 $14,400 35.9 -8.5 34.1 -1.8 1.05 25.5% 60.4% 2 -2.16
Jeremy Lamb $5,900 $5,900 $11,600 29.3 2.2 30.3 0.0 0.97 22.3% 58.3% 1 -0.10
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,400 $4,200 $8,300 13.6 16.4 0.83 11.9% 57.1% 16 N/A
Marvin Williams $4,200 $4,100 $8,100 18.0 1.6 25.2 -0.2 0.71 13.0% 59.0% 4 0.58
Dwight Howard $7,700 $6,800 $14,500 34.4 -1.8 30.6 -0.8 1.12 18.8% 56.2% 11 2.81
Frank Kaminsky $3,800 $4,100 $8,000 19.4 -6.5 26.7 -3.2 0.73 18.5% 50.1% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard


Boston Celtics

The Celtics haven’t been the high scoring team that many predicted. They’ve won their games on the defensive end of the floor. Despite the slow pace and fairly low scoring games, they’ve still been a team that we have been able to target for fantasy production. Tonight’s matchup against the Hornets doesn’t look great on paper, but Charlotte struggles defensively on the road. Boston has an implied total of 103.8 points, which is identical to their season average. I’m quite surprised that the spread for this game is set at only four points, even though Al Horford has already been ruled out.

Kyrie Irving is averaging 1.21 FP/min with Al Horford off the floor this season. That’s not a big bump by any means, but every little bit helps. He has an elite true usage of 29% and an exploitable matchup against Kemba Walker. Irving is viable in both cash games and tournaments and he’s been under-owned in DFS for most of the season. Jayson Tatum is questionable for tonight’s game. If he’s unable to suit up, Jaylen Brown becomes an elite play in all formats, while Marcus Smart would benefit as well. I’d even consider Terry Rozier, who played 27 minutes off the bench the other night.

With Horford ruled out and with Tatum questionable, Marcus Morris appears to be one of the top values on the board. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last two games and is no longer on a minutes restriction. We could see him play 28-30 minutes tonight. Everyone will want to jump on the Aron Baynes bandwagon tonight and it’s hard to blame them. He is averaging 0.93 FP/min and could see minutes in the upper 20s with Horford out again. It feels like we are chasing a bit and I hate to be late to the party, but Baynes is viable in all formats.

Notable Injuries

Al Horford (Out)
Jayson Tatum (Questionable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (9 of 16)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (12 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,400 $17,300 39.6 -5.4 33.4 -0.8 1.19 28.8% 55.8% 11 -1.14
Jaylen Brown $5,500 $6,500 $13,800 26.3 -2.2 31.6 -1.1 0.83 18.5% 55.9% 25 -0.88
Jayson Tatum $5,500 $6,300 $12,400 26.8 -0.4 29.7 -6.7 0.90 15.7% 64.4% 25 2.10
Marcus Morris $5,200 $4,600 $9,300 23.4 3.2 21.8 2.0 1.07 23.9% 49.8% 9 -0.13
Aron Baynes $4,800 $4,300 $8,200 17.8 -0.1 19.3 -1.6 0.92 15.2% 52.0% 22 2.92
Marcus Smart $5,900 $5,700 $11,200 27.4 3.9 29.7 1.2 0.92 19.7% 43.0% N/A N/A
Terry Rozier $4,200 $4,000 $7,600 22.7 -2.9 24.2 1.1 0.94 19.8% 46.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes

Secondary Plays – Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier


Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Chicago Bulls
indiananba Vegas Total 206.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Implied Team Total 105.0 Implied Team Total 101.0
Pace Projection +/- -3.4 Pace Projection +/- 1.2
Projected Starters Darren Collison Victor Oladipo Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Projected Starters Jerian Grant Justin Holiday Paul Zipser Lauri Markkanen Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 5 11 20 14 DvP 20 11 14 29 28
DRPM 0.45 0.32 -0.09 N/A 0.24 DRPM -1.67 1.64 -2.76 1.69 2.43

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have lost four games in a row and will try to end their slide tonight against the Bulls. These two teams play contrasting styles of basketball, as Indiana likes to push the pace, while Chicago is ranked dead last in that category. The Bulls are also ranked fifth in points allowed per game and eighth in rebounding differential. The Pacers have an implied total of only 105 points, which is four points below their season average and mediocre compared to the other teams in the slate.

Darren Collison draws the best matchup of the five starters when you look at DvP, but Jerian Grant and Kris Dunn are both capable defenders. Collison is a fine cash game option on FanDuel if you are stuck and need a mid-range point guard, but he’s far from a core play in this slate. Victor Oladipo has been quiet in his last three games, averaging under 30 fantasy points per contest. With Myles Turner back in the mix, we could see Oladipo’s usage dip a bit in this offense.

The Pacers’ frontcourt hinges on the availability of Domantas Sabonis. If he is active, I will be avoiding the situation altogether. If he is out, Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner will play all of the minutes that they can handle. Both would become viable plays, although the matchup is less than ideal. Overall, I don’t have a ton of interest in the Pacers tonight, unless Sabonis ends up being out.

Notable Injuries

Domantas Sabonis (Questionable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (11 of 16)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (30 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Darren Collison $5,700 $6,000 $11,600 28.6 -2.9 31.8 1.0 0.90 18.8% 59.6% 23 0.45
Victor Oladipo $7,600 $7,500 $15,400 36.0 -7.5 32.6 2.2 1.11 27.1% 59.1% 5 0.32
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,600 $4,700 $9,000 20.2 -2.4 28.8 -1.2 0.70 16.0% 63.4% 11 -0.09
Thaddeus Young $6,400 $6,000 $12,100 29.2 -0.4 34.0 2.4 0.86 16.1% 58.2% 20 N/A
Myles Turner $7,900 $7,100 $13,100 35.0 -4.6 28.7 -0.3 1.22 20.0% 55.6% 14 0.24
Cory Joseph $4,000 $3,500 $7,200 18.7 -1.6 23.6 0.3 0.79 17.2% 54.7% N/A N/A
Domantas Sabonis $5,400 $5,600 $11,100 29.9 -2.8 26.9 2.4 1.11 17.7% 65.7% N/A N/A
Lance Stephenson $3,600 $3,300 $6,200 16.0 4.8 20.1 3.2 0.79 18.7% 36.6% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Thaddeus Young & Myles Turner (if Sabonis is out)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Victor Oladipo


Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are tied with the Hawks and Mavericks for the fewest number of wins in basketball. While they aren’t going anywhere this season, they are at least starting to get healthy. Tonight they host the Pacers in what should be a pace-up game for Chicago. On the season, Indiana is ranked tenth in pace of play, 25th in points allowed per game, and 22nd in rebounding differential. The Bulls’ implied total of 101 points may not seem like much, but it is seven points higher than their season average, which gives them the second best projected point differential of the slate.

Jerian Grant would be an excellent value if we could rely on his minutes, but he has seen 25 or fewer in four of his last five games. For now, I will be avoiding both Grant and Kris Dunn in all formats. Justin Holiday is an intriguing play at a fair price across the industry. He should benefit from an uptempo game and he’s an underrated scorer. We need to keep an eye on the availability of Robin Lopez and Lauri Markkanen. They are both listed as questionable, which could open up huge minutes for Bobby Portis. The Bulls wasted no time getting him on the floor, as he put up 40 fantasy points in 24 minutes in his season debut. Portis may not be able to handle a full complement of minutes just yet, but 28-30 isn’t out of the question. Paul Zipser and Denzel Valentine would also benefit if the Bulls are short-handed tonight. They would become nice values if Markkanen and/or Lopez are ruled out.

Notable Injuries

Lauri Markkanen (Questionable)
Robin Lopez (Questionable)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 94.3 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.7 (2 of 16)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (10 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Jerian Grant $5,200 $4,800 $9,200 26.4 2.7 28.4 -1.7 0.93 20.2% 45.4% 20 -1.67
Justin Holiday $6,000 $5,800 $11,700 27.4 3.5 35.3 -0.7 0.78 21.0% 47.1% 11 1.64
Paul Zipser $3,600 $3,900 $7,400 13.0 -1.5 21.9 -1.8 0.59 14.8% 37.8% 14 -2.76
Lauri Markkanen $6,300 $6,400 $12,400 28.5 -3.5 32.5 0.0 0.88 18.6% 58.8% 29 1.69
Robin Lopez $5,900 $5,400 $10,100 28.2 -1.8 31.5 0.8 0.90 20.8% 54.9% 28 2.43
Kris Dunn $5,500 $4,700 $9,200 23.4 -2.2 23.7 -1.3 0.99 22.9% 43.4% N/A N/A
Bobby Portis $5,000 $6,100 $12,800 40.6 0.0 24.4 0.0 1.66 27.3% 71.1% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Justin Holiday, Bobby Portis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bobby Portis (Cash), Paul Zipser & Denzel Valentine (if Markkanen and Lopez are out)


Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder
laclippersnba Vegas Total 208.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Implied Team Total 101.0 Implied Team Total 107.0
Pace Projection +/- -1.0 Pace Projection +/- -2.0
Projected Starters Lou Williams Austin Rivers Wesley Johnson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Projected Starters Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Paul George Carmelo Anthony Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 2 6 6 15 DvP 8 23 19 14 23
DRPM -0.59 2.47 0.13 -1.49 1.42 DRPM -1.49 -1.78 2.64 0.41 3.57

Los Angeles Clippers

This is one of the more difficult games to break down. The Clippers are playing short-handed, they are on the road, and they are facing a very capable defense. The spread is only set at six points, but this has more blowout potential than most six point spreads. The Thunder are a very talented team that is just waiting for everything to click. They are also very good defensively, ranking second in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Clippers have an implied total of only 101 points, which is seven points below their season average.

While the low implied total isn’t ideal, the injuries more than make up for it. Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari have both been ruled out of tonight’s game and Austin Rivers is listed as questionable. If Rivers is active, he could be asked to play 38-40 minutes. If he’s out, Lou Williams would crack the 30-minute mark for the first time this season. Even though the matchup isn’t ideal, I see Rivers and Williams as elite plays tonight given their increase in minutes. Wesley Johnson should also play close to 35 minutes and is one of the better value plays on the board.

As strange as it sounds, I’m more interested in the Clippers’ value plays than I am in Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan. I don’t expect their playing time or roles to change much and we aren’t exactly getting a discount. They also draw a difficult matchup against a stout Thunder frontcourt. Of the two, I much prefer Griffin, who is only $8,400 on FanDuel tonight. The worry with Griffin is that he’d be the first one pulled in a blowout. I expect Rivers, Williams, and Johnson to play big minutes, regardless of the game’s outcome.

Notable Injuries

Patrick Beverley (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Austin Rivers (Questionable)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -6.5 (15 of 16)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (18 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Lou Williams $5,500 $5,200 $9,800 22.2 0.5 23.2 3.5 0.96 26.0% 57.6% 9 -0.59
Austin Rivers $5,900 $5,300 $10,500 23.1 5.4 32.0 3.4 0.72 17.7% 50.9% 2 2.47
Wesley Johnson $4,600 $3,700 $7,500 15.5 -0.5 20.0 6.6 0.78 12.6% 51.4% 6 0.13
Blake Griffin $8,400 $8,600 $16,300 40.9 1.1 34.3 1.7 1.19 26.2% 59.9% 6 -1.49
DeAndre Jordan $7,600 $6,900 $12,800 32.3 -0.8 31.8 0.5 1.01 11.1% 60.4% 15 1.42
Sindarius Thornwell $3,400 $3,000 $6,000 7.7 -1.8 11.0 1.9 0.70 16.5% 48.1% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers (if active), Lou Williams, Wesley Johnson, Blake Griffin (FD)

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (DK)


Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

Steven Adams (Questionable)

The Thunder are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Nuggets in Denver last night. They have now lost four games in a row and will try to end their streak tonight against the Clippers. This is not a great matchup on paper, but the Clippers are missing a couple of starters and their best on-ball defender in Patrick Beverley. Oklahoma City has an implied total of 107 points, which is five points above their season average.

Russell Westbrook had another subpar outing last night against the Nuggets last night. He has not shot the ball well at all this season. While we can’t expect him to put up the same numbers as last season, I do expect him to improve moving forward. He’s going to be more efficient and he’s going to have a breakout game shortly. He benefits from Patrick Beverley being out and if he matches up against Lou Williams, this could be the night. I’ll fire up some Westbrook in tournaments at low ownership, but will be looking elsewhere in cash games.

Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are both decent plays, but they never stand out as elite options at their respective positions. If I happen to land on them in a lineup, I’ll feel good about it, but I won’t be forcing them onto any of my rosters. Steven Adams is questionable with a calf injury. If he’s unable to go, we can give a boost to Jerami Grant and Patrick Patterson. Grant is viable on DraftKings either way, as he has a very high floor for such a cheap price.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (3 of 16)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (21 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Russell Westbrook $10,800 $10,800 $21,000 47.4 -2.5 34.3 2.4 1.38 31.9% 50.5% 8 -1.49
Andre Roberson $3,900 $3,100 $6,000 11.5 4.6 21.0 6.3 0.55 10.0% 49.2% 23 -1.78
Paul George $8,200 $7,300 $12,900 35.4 2.0 34.5 4.0 1.03 23.7% 54.0% 19 2.64
Carmelo Anthony $6,800 $6,900 $13,000 33.2 -6.0 32.4 -2.2 1.02 24.9% 52.6% 14 0.41
Steven Adams $6,400 $5,800 $11,400 31.5 -5.5 30.8 0.2 1.02 12.6% 70.7% 23 3.57
Jerami Grant $4,500 $3,500 $7,300 19.6 -0.4 23.5 2.5 0.83 14.4% 55.4% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jerami Grant (DK)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony


Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs – 9:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks San Antonio Spurs
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 205.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Implied Team Total 100.0 Implied Team Total 105.5
Pace Projection +/- -2.6 Pace Projection +/- -2.3
Projected Starters Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo John Henson Projected Starters Patty Mills Danny Green Kyle Anderson LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 1 22 17 11 7 DvP 21 3 10 15 21
DRPM -1.07 2.10 2.92 1.25 1.43 DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 2.02

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are looking to end their four game losing streak tonight, as they head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. This is typically not the place where teams come hoping to end losing streaks, as the Spurs have been churning out wins since as long as I can remember. This is an awful matchup for fantasy production. On the season, San Antonio is ranked 26th in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game. The Bucks’ implied total of 100 points is one of the lowest of the slate and five points below their season average.

I treat games in San Antonio the same way I do a really windy game in football. The appeal of the game as a whole is low and we have to look hard just to find decent fantasy options. The one player that should give the Spurs problems is Giannis Antetokounmpo. San Antonio hasn’t defended wings as well this season without Kawhi Leonard and their one weakness defensively is the lack of an elite rim protector. We should be able to get Giannis at lower ownership than usual, so I don’t mind the play in tournaments. He’ll need to be extremely efficient to reach value, which is tough to do against the Spurs.

Notable Injuries

Mirza Teletovic (Doubtful)
Eric Bledsoe (Questionable)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.4 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.4 (14 of 16)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (26 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $6,300 $5,500 $10,400 28.0 5.2 33.6 2.8 0.83 19.0% 62.0% 1 -1.07
Tony Snell $4,100 $3,600 $7,100 18.3 4.6 33.6 5.1 0.54 9.1% 75.5% 22 2.10
Khris Middleton $7,500 $6,700 $12,900 36.2 12.2 36.8 3.3 0.98 23.9% 51.3% 17 2.92
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,800 $10,500 $20,200 56.5 -5.5 37.2 -0.5 1.52 29.8% 65.7% 11 1.25
John Henson $4,800 $4,500 $8,600 18.8 4.4 20.2 4.4 0.93 9.9% 54.8% 7 1.43

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)


San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are looking to extend their three game winning streak tonight against the Bucks at home. If you haven’t seen the “Game of Zones” videos, do yourself a favor and watch them while you are at work today. The Spurs are the White Walkers, which is an amazing comparison. They never die and always seem to be lurking in the shadows. San Antonio comes into tonight’s game as a 5-point favorite with an implied total of 105.5 points, which is four points higher than their season average.

For having so much length in their lineup, you would expect the Bucks to be better defensively. On the season, they are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 24th in rebounding differential. They haven’t fared well against point guards and Patty Mills has been an excellent value play since entering the starting lineup. He is averaging 28 minutes and 26 fantasy points over his last three games and is still only $3,900 on DraftKings. Danny Green, Kyle Anderson, and Rudy Gay are all secondary options if you are in a bind and need someone to round out your lineup with, but they aren’t core plays in an eight game slate.

I have some interest in Spurs’ frontcourt tonight against a Bucks’ team that doesn’t defend the paint or rebound well. LaMarcus Aldridge leads the team with a true usage of 27% and he’s already topped 37 fantasy points nine times this season. He is the forgotten man in DFS and as we all know, low ownership on a good play is exactly what we need to rocket up the leaderboards. Pau Gasol may not have the ceiling that we are looking for in tournaments, but he has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three straight games and should get there again if he plays minutes in the upper 20s.

Notable Injuries

Joffrey Lauvergne (Out)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (6 of 16)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (22 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L3 +/- Minutes L3 +/- FP/Min True Usage TS% Opp. DvP Opp. DRPM
Patty Mills $4,700 $3,900 $7,500 15.7 8.4 24.4 3.5 0.65 18.2% 45.9% 21 -0.73
Danny Green $5,000 $4,700 $8,700 23.6 -1.7 28.9 -2.4 0.82 17.0% 54.6% 3 -0.79
Kyle Anderson $5,000 $4,100 $8,000 23.3 -1.2 26.1 -1.1 0.89 13.8% 52.3% 10 0.54
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,500 $7,900 $13,900 40.4 -4.3 33.5 -2.0 1.20 26.7% 55.7% 15 1.49
Pau Gasol $6,300 $5,800 $11,400 28.9 3.2 25.2 1.9 1.15 17.9% 56.2% 21 2.02
Rudy Gay $5,500 $5,400 $10,400 26.5 6.6 23.2 1.4 1.14 22.5% 58.0% N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Patty Mills (DK), LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills (FD), LaMarcus Aldridge (Cash), Pau Gasol


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious