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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-13 15:01:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Brooklyn Nets
sanantonionba Vegas Total 193.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd -14.5 Vegas Sprd 14.5
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 89.3
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 97.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Markel Brown Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 27 24 20 10 28 Opp. Season 8 1 1 1 2
Opp. Last 7 18 11 14 25 21 Opp. Last 7 4 10 3 3 7

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 32-6 — Road: 10-6 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs have won seven of their last ten games and have improved to 32-6 on the season. Tonight they head to Brooklyn to take on the struggling Nets. The Spurs are listed as 14.5-point favorites with their team total set at 103.8 points.

The Nets have not fared well on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The issue for the Spurs isn’t the matchup, it is the potential blowout. We have seen Greg Popovich limit his starter minutes time and time again in blowouts.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard’s minutes and production have both been down over his last five games. During that stretch, he has only averaged 30.4 fantasy points. He obviously provides great upside against the Nets, but we have seen Leonard play as little as 20 minutes in blowouts.

FD — $8,300 — SF
DK — $8,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 30.4

Danny Green

Green is one of the only Spurs’ players that isn’t heavily affected by a blowout. He should see minutes in the low-20’s regardless. While he hasn’t been on the fantasy radar often this season, he is a decent punt option tonight. The Nets are ranked 24th against shooting guards this season.

FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.8 | Last Five Games: 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 22.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 18.1

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 10-27 — Home: 6-13 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 10-27 on the season. They are the largest underdogs on the schedule tonight, as they host the visiting Spurs. The Nets are only projected to score 89.3 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.

The Spurs have been the best defensive team in the NBA all season. They are ranked first or second in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With a low team total and the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, the Nets are secondary options at best tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Shane Larkin

Larkin is the only Nets’ player on my radar tonight. It’s a tough slate with only three games, but he offers decent value at point guard. Over his last five games, he has averaged 27 minutes. The Spurs have been better against point guards recently, but Tony Parker is not an elite defender at this stage of his career.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 12.5
Min/Game — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 15.6

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Washington Wizards Chicago Bulls
washingtonnba Vegas Total 206.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 99.80 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 26 7 24 15 24 Opp. Season 7 28 29 6 11
Opp. Last 7 26 7 29 14 20 Opp. Last 7 11 19 21 4 25

Washington Wizards

Record: 16-19 — Road: 8-8 — Last 10: 5-5

Editor’s Note: Marcin Gortat is now listed as questionable for tonight, along with Nene Hilario.

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games. They are fighting their way back to .500, but are still three games back. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in what is projected to be the fastest-paced game of the night. The Wizards are 8-point underdogs with their team total set at 99.3 points.

Elite Plays

John Wall

There is often a lot of chatter about Wall’s home vs. road splits in his career. However, when you look at the numbers, he is only averaging two more fantasy points at home per game. That’s small enough that we really don’t have to worry about it. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to point guards.

FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 40.3 | Last Five Games: 37.2

Marcin Gortat

Editor’s Note: Marcin Gortat is now listed as questionable for tonight, along with Nene Hilario.

The center position is awfully thin on a three-game slate. On DraftKings, Pau Gasol is center-eligible, however on FanDuel Gortat is my favorite play at the position. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30’s against a Bulls’ team that is ranked 24th against centers this season.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 29.9

Otto Porter

It’s a little strange having three Wizards’ players listed as elite plays, but with only three games on the schedule, that is what happens. Porter has been in great form recently, averaging 30.7 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws a favorable matchup against Nikola Mirotic.

FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $6,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 30.7

Secondary Plays

Garrett Temple

Bradley Beal may return to the lineup within a week, which will end the run for Temple as a value play. However, until that happens, he is worth a look on a night with little value. Over his last five games, Temple has averaged 20.5 fantasy points in 34.1 minutes.

FD — $4,400 — SG
DK — $4,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 20.5

Chicago Bulls

Record: 22-13 — Home: 16-5 — Last 10: 7-3

Editor’s Note: Joakim Noah will play tonight.

The Bulls have won seven of their last ten games and have an impressive 16-5 record at home this season. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Wizards at home. The Bulls are projected to score 107.3 points. Not only is that the second highest team total on the board, but it is also 5.1 points higher than their average points scored per game.

The Wizards have been a team to target players against all season in daily fantasy. They are ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Joakim Noah is expected to return to the lineup tonight. He should cut into the minutes and production of Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler

Butler has been in great form over his last five games, averaging 45.4 fantasy points. He also draws one of the top matchups on the schedule, as the Wizards have allowed the third most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. He will likely be one of the most popular plays on the board tonight.

FD — $8,700 — SG
DK — $8,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 37.9 | Last Five Games: 38.1
FP/Game — Season: 37.5 | Last Five Games: 45.4

Nikola Mirotic

Now that Mirotic is seeing the majority of his minutes at small forward, he should be a nice play even with Joakim Noah back in the lineup. Mirotic is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 31.1 fantasy points. He has a boom or bust nature to his game, but should find success against the lowly Wizards’ defense.

FD — $5,500 — SF
DK — $5,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 31.1

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

Gasol is a borderline elite play in all league formats. The only reason that he is not listed as an elite play is his matchup. Marcin Gortat is a very capable low post defender and the Wizards are ranked in the top half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to centers.

FD — $8,700 — PF
DK — $8,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 32.9
FP/Game — Season: 37.9 | Last Five Games: 40.7

Taj Gibson

With Joakim Noah back in the lineup, Gibson becomes more of a secondary play tonight. In addition to fewer minutes, the Wizards have actually been stout against power forwards, holding them to the sixth lowest fantasy points.

FD — $5,100 — PF
DK — $5,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.8 | Last Five Games: 10.3
Min/Game — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 24.4

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Miami Heat Golden State Warriors
miaminba Vegas Total 205.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 94.20 Team Pace 101.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Brandon Rush Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 22 3 17 16 20 Opp. Season 2 2 18 2 9
Opp. Last 7 22 3 18 7 26 Opp. Last 7 9 2 6 2 16

Miami Heat

Record: 22-15 — Road: 7-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are now 22-15 on the season. They draw arguably their toughest test to date tonight, as they are on the road against the Warriors. The Heat are listed as 12.5-point underdogs. This will be a pace-up game for Miami though, and their team total is set at 96.5 points.

As we always say with the Warriors, they play at such a quick pace that it allows us to target players against them in daily fantasy basketball. We are less concerned about the matchup and more concerned about the potential blowout. However, with only three games on the schedule that all have spreads of at least eight points, it’s hard to factor in a potential blowout here.

Elite Plays

Goran Dragic

The Dragon has seen a spike in minutes over the last few weeks. While his production isn’t as consistent as we would like to see, that can happen when you play for a team that is so well-balanced. Dragic draws the best matchup of the five starters tonight, as the Warriors are ranked 22nd against point guards.

FD — $5,500 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 22.8

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

Bosh has been in good form over his last five games, averaging 37.5 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. His price is still affordable and the Warriors have been mediocre against power forwards. He’s not my favorite play on the board, but it’s hard to be confident in every roster spot on short slates.

FD — $8,000 — PF
DK — $7,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 37.5

Hassan Whiteside

For cash game purposes, Marcin Gortat (FD & DK) and Pau Gasol (DK) are the top plays. However, if you want to differentiate your lineup in tournaments, Whiteside could be worth a look. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in five of his last nine games.

FD — $7,300 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 26.9
FP/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 25.5

Dwyane Wade

Wade could be considered a borderline elite play tonight. I always like targeting him in big games, as the Heat tend to rely on him a little heavier offensively. However, he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the likes of Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala. The Warriors are ranked third against shooting guards this season.

FD — $7,000 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 25.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 28.6

Golden State Warriors

Record: 35-2 — Home: 17-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors have won nine of their last ten games and remain unbeaten at home. They are now 17-0 at Oracle Arena. Tonight they host the Heat, who are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. While the Warriors have the highest team total on the board, it is 5.5 points lower than their average points scored per game.

The Heat are a top five defensive team this season. They are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed. While the matchup isn’t great, this is the Warriors’ offense that we are talking about. The only thing that we really need to be concerned about is a few less possessions for Golden State.

Elite Plays

Draymond Green

Green aka Draymagic aka trip-dubs is the premier play at power forward tonight. Even though the Heat have been excellent against the position, Green fills up all areas of the stat sheet. He doesn’t need to score a ton of points to reach value in daily fantasy.

FD — $9,800 — PF
DK — $10,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 40.1 | Last Five Games: 49.1

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry

Curry is back in pre-injury form. After putting up 26 points and 9 assists against the Blazers, he backed it up with 38 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists against the Kings. He is a strong option tonight at point guard, but it is tough to fit more than one or two expensive players in your lineup tonight. Value is tough to come by.

FD — $10,800 — PG
DK — $10,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 26.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 46.4 | Last Five Games: 38.4

Klay Thompson

Thompson has been terrific recently, but a lot of his production has come in games where Stephen Curry either sat out or was limited. Now that Curry is back to his usual workload, it feels like Thompson is a little too expensive tonight against the Heat.

FD — $7,700 — SG
DK — $8,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 40.6

Brandon Rush

Did I mention that value is hard to find tonight? Rush is a decent punt option at shooting guard. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 21.9 fantasy points. As long as he remains in the starting lineup, he could be worth a look at shooting guard.

FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $3,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.5 | Last Five Games: 12.3
Min/Game — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 24.8
FP/Game — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 21.9

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious