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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 15th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-16 05:36:55

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 3:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Cleveland Cavaliers
indiananba Vegas Total 212.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -0.6
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17 Adj. DvP 12 9 27 13 22
DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95 DRPM -0.24 -1.68 0.13 1.69 2.43

Indiana Pacers

Playoffs?! Playoffs??? You kidding me? PLAYOFFS?!!

I’m not kidding you, Jim Mora, it’s finally time for some NBA playoffs! After a wild value hunt to finish the season complete while the best players were limited or rest altogether, we can finally rely on our favorite fantasy targets to log heavy, motivated minutes. From a fan’s perspective, it’s just so much fun. Sometimes it feels like the regular season is just a warmup or a preseason of sorts for most teams and the true NBA season begins Saturday. Before we get started, one prediction and one wish. Prediction: Cavs and Celtics meet in the conference finals and home court doesn’t help Boston (not much of a bold call); Cleveland sweeps it 4-0 (bolder?). Wish: Russell Westbrook makes the finals, the Thunder go down 3-1 to the Cavs, and Westbrook brings them back to win it. Alright, let’s get to the slate!

The first game is the most exciting for fantasy; it’s 212.5 total is the highest on the slate and it’s 11 points above the next one. Although the Pacers are 8.5-point dogs, it’s not all bad news. Cleveland has been playing poor defense. Since the All-Star break, they’ve posted the second-worst defensive rating in the league (111.1), the eighth-lowest rebounding rate (48.9%), and they’re 18th in opponent field goal percentage.

Paul George is ready for this series. He’s been playing out of his mind the past couple of weeks while fighting for a spot in the playoffs and it was fun to watch. In the six games they played in April, his usage ticked up 2.5% to 33.2% and his per-36 production increased 9.42 DK points to 50.26. In terms of scoring, 65.0% of his field goal come from 16+ feet away. Since the break, Cleveland is 13th in field goal percentage from 16-24 feet (39.4%) and 17th in FG% from 24+ feet (36.2%), which means that neither area is necessarily exploitable, but their defense shouldn’t bother his game too much. He will, of course, have to worry about LeBron James, but James’ excellent defense hasn’t prevented opposing small forwards from racking up fantasy points as Cleveland is 26th in DvP against the position. Considering he’s going to push towards 40 minutes, his recent production rates are very promising and he offers a slight discount off Giannis Antetokounmpo’s asking price, who will face a tougher defense. The latter point is more relevant to DraftKings, where they both have small forward eligibility.

Myles Turner is another Pacer that turned it up to close out the season. He scored at least 18 points in the final three games of the season, turned in two double-doubles, and blocked 12 shots. Blocks are huge boosts in fantasy and he’s averaged 2.1 per game this season, which is third in the league. Cleveland may not be the right opponent for upside in the category though, they’ve only had 3.4 shots blocked per game since the break, which has been the third-best rate – the three opponents Turner faced to close out the season were all in the bottom ten. Although he only averages 7.2 rebounds per game, he could benefit from the Cavaliers’ struggles on the glass, but he only grabs 12.9% of the total rebounds available while he’s on the floor, which is why his big rebounding performances are few and far between; he’s only had five double-digit games since February 1st. His teammate Thaddeus Young has had three such games in the past eight and he’s accumulated at least eight boards in seven. Young has looked very healthy recently, which has not only benefited his rebounding, but he scored in the double-digits in eight consecutive games prior to their finale. Although he’s only $900 less than Turner on DraftKings, he’s $1,700 cheaper on FanDuel. He’s one of the few mid-range options that stick out on FD.

One more key stat on Cleveland’s performance after the break: they’ve allowed the fourth-most assists per game (25.4). Jeff Teague assists on 36.4% of his teammate’s field goals when he’s on the floor, which was the ninth-best rate in the NBA this season. There is obvious upside here and Teague has already taken advantage of the Cavs – in each of the last three games they’ve faced each other, he accounted for 11 or more assists. In terms of overall fantasy production, he’s scored at least 38 DK points in all four meetings this season, topped 40 three times, and he peaked at 54.25 DK points. It seems Teague loves playing Cleveland.

Outside of those four guys, there isn’t much else to like. They’ll be the ones getting heavy minutes, while fellow starter Monta Ellis will be in a time share with C.J. Miles – both are prone to get hot at random times, but those moments are very hard to predict. Ellis is the more interesting value option in the starting role, but his minutes have trended downwards towards the end of the season, even though the Pacers were already in playoff mode. Lance Stephenson has done well on a per-minute basis, earning 0.90 DK ppm, but he only exceeded 23 minutes once since joining the team. Even though it’s hard to locate solid value targets on this slate, it’s going to be hard to trust Stephenson to get enough playing time to provide a solid return.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,000 $7,300 $13,700 1.00 32.4 -0.1 32.4 -2.3 26.1% -1.1% 23 -2.16
Monta Ellis $4,000 $4,300 $8,500 0.66 27.0 -2.6 17.9 -3.8 18.1% -2.4% 29 -0.77
Paul George $10,000 $9,800 $18,200 1.05 35.9 2.1 37.7 10.3 28.4% 0.0% 26 1.57
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,600 $11,200 0.77 30.2 3.5 23.2 6.2 16.2% 0.6% 9 1.93
Myles Turner $6,900 $6,500 $12,300 0.95 31.4 -0.8 29.9 1.9 18.5% 0.7% 17 0.95

Elite Plays – Paul George, Jeff Teague

Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner

Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James is always fun to watch at the end of the season and in the playoffs, he just hits another level. Since March 1st, he’s averaged 58.41 DK points per game, well above his 52.60 average on the season. Indiana struggles to defend small forwards (27th in DvP), and their defense as a whole struggled a bit down the stretch; their defensive rating fell to 21st (109.4) in the final 12 games after placing 16th in the category (106.3) overall on the year. They did improve in some areas – with a help from a healthy Thaddeus Young, their rebounding rate rose to 51.1% in the final 12 games, putting them in ninth in the league, despite having the sixth-worst rate (48.7%) on the season. They went from 11th to ninth in assists allowed per game as well. James is always a threat for a triple-double, and he collects plenty of fantasy points across all three categories, but these trends aren’t what we’d like to see. Of course, we can’t forget his ridiculous overtime game against them a couple of weeks ago when he scored 41 actual points and triple-doubled on his way to 86.5 DK points. In his previous two chances against them, he averaged 29 points but failed to hit double-digits in the other areas. When considering all of the facts here and the slate as a whole, it’s hard to place anyone above him; this is LeBron in April, one shouldn’t doubt him.

Kevin Love has grabbed at least 10 rebounds all three times he faced the Pacers this year and scored over 20 points twice. He’s been playing solid ball since returning from injury, so his price has risen, but he’s still a solid target on this slate. He’s second on the team in three-point attempts per game (6.5) and he’s got a good matchup for shooting from beyond the arc. While Indiana may have trended upwards in other defensive categories in their final 12 games, they couldn’t stop the three. On the season, they ranked 13th in 3PA% (35.5%), but in the final twelve they slid to 28th (39.0%). Their improved rebounding could affect Love in a negative way, but he could make up for it with some extra scoring. This trend bodes well for Kyrie Irving as well, who takes 6.1 3PAs per game. His issue isn’t scoring though, it’s peripherals and Love’s presence. Since March 19th, when Kevin Love his 25 minutes for the first time after returning from injury, Irving’s usage dropped 3.8% and his per-36 production fell 4.64 DK points to 41.46 as compared to the stretch of games without him. At $9,000 on FanDuel, it seems like a boost in scoring would still make it hard for him to beat his salary given the Pacers recent improvements and Cleveland’s lineup. On DraftKings, he’s only $7,800 though, and that is a very reasonable price to pay for his upside.

Outside of the big three, Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith are potential value plays. Thompson’s per-36 pace of 24.89 is solid against his $4,500 salary, but it’s a question of whether he’ll be afforded that type of time on the court. He’s averaged 29.9 this season, so hopefully he can see that rise with a tighter rotation in the playoffs. Although he’s far from exciting, he qualifies as a secondary play due to the dearth of viable cheap options on the slate. As for J.R. Smith, he’s either hot or he’s not. Even when he’s connecting, he has limited upside when the big three are healthy.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $7,800 $14,300 1.09 35.1 1.7 38.2 2.0 32.0% -2.3% 12 -0.24
J.R. Smith $3,700 $3,900 $7,700 0.56 29.0 3.5 16.2 -0.7 14.4% -1.6% 9 -1.68
LeBron James $11,000 $10,800 $19,200 1.30 37.8 4.5 49.3 7.8 32.9% -2.6% 27 0.13
Kevin Love $8,300 $7,900 $14,600 1.14 31.4 5.0 35.8 0.4 25.2% -2.5% 13 1.69
Tristan Thompson $4,700 $4,500 $8,800 0.77 30.0 -11.5 23.0 -7.2 11.0% 7.5% 22 2.43
Channing Frye $3,700 $3,700 $7,400 0.83 18.9 2.6 15.8 7.3 18.1% -0.1% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD), Kevin Love

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 5:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 201.5 torontonba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 97.3 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10 Adj. DvP 16 7 10 7 15
DRPM 0.62 -2.21 1.09 0.84 0.71 DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 -0.53

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee was 1-3 against Toronto during the regular season and the Raptors were without Kyle Lowry the only time the Bucks won. It’s going to be a tough series for them now that Lowry is back. Vegas as confirmed that though by favoring Toronto by 7.0 points and giving Milwaukee an implied total of 97.3 points, which is 6.3 below their average. On the positive side, they’re pretty healthy outside of Jabari Parker; Malcolm Brogdon and John Henson returned at the end of the season and Khris Middleton has played well after missing the first half of the season. Middleton has averaged 16.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals since crossing the 30-minute mark on March 1st.

The Raptors have strong defenders across the board except for DeMar DeRozan, but his weakness has not translated into fantasy points for opposing shooting guards. Tony Snell isn’t much of a fantasy option anyway, he has a 13.4% usage rate and returns 0.51 FD ppm. It will affect the guys we want to target though – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, and Greg Monroe. Coach Dwane Casey has already said he’s going to charge DeMarre Carroll and P.J. Tucker with defending Giannis, both of whom have DRPMs over 1 and are among the top 25 small forwards in the league in the stat. So far this year, the Raptors haven’t bothered him too much during their four meetings. He averaged 47.5 FD points, which is a touch above his average mark of 45.54, he was never below 40 FD points in any time they met, and he exceeded 50 twice. There are a few reasons to be concerned though. A huge part of Antetokounmpo’s scoring comes from within five feet of the hoop – 73.0% of his made baskets – and Toronto held opponents to the tenth-lowest field goal percentage (58.8%) from that area this season. Plus, they’ve allowed the seventh-lowest field goal percentage overall, which not only affects his scoring outlook, but it could also cut into his assists (he averages 5.4 per game). It will surely be a challenge, but the Greek Freak is the unquestioned leader of the group, he should see his minutes push towards 40, and his team-high usage rate of 29.0% should grow even larger. Given the lack of value options and mid-range guys at shooting guard on FanDuel, he’s clearly a top choice. On DraftKings, where he has point guard and small forward eligibility, there is some competition. More so at SF, which features LeBron James for $600 more and Paul George for $400 less, both of whom have better spots. On top of that, Kawhi Leonard is $1,700 less on the site and is matchup is looking a little better now that Tony Allen is out.

After those guys and Gordon Hayward is Khris Middleton. Although he only has a 30.4-minute sample against the Raptors this year, it’s impressive. He commanded a 30.5% usage rate, 6.0% above his season average, and his per-36 pace of 32.79 FD points was 2.41 above his normal return. He may have averaged 30.7 minutes this season, but now that it’s the playoffs, he should top 36. If Toronto has weak spots on the floor, they would be from 15-19 feet away from the basket and threes from above the break. They allow a 41.0% field goal percentage from that 15-19 feet, the highest of any area (broken down by five-foot areas) excluding 0-5 feet away. While Middleton’s is a pretty balanced shooter, who fires from everywhere, his favorite spot (again, if broken down by five-foot increments) happens to be 15-19 feet, where he’s attempted the most shots (68) and connects on 44.1% of them. In terms of broader areas, Middleton loves shooting from above the break, where he takes 69.2% of his threes and makes an incredibly high 43.1% of his attempts. He’s shooting 43.3% from three overall on the season and it isn’t totally fluky as he’s a career 40.4% shooter from beyond the arc. Toronto allows the ninth-highest field goal percentage from above the break (36.0%). While Middleton normally takes just 3.6 three-point attempts per game, it could be a good spot to turn that up a bit. For what it’s worth, he took four when he played them this season, but he was 9-of-14 overall on his way to 24 points in 30 minutes of action. It does seem like his scoring strengths align well with his opponent’s weaknesses. With the lack of value and mid-range options on this slate, it’s going to be tough to squeeze in a pair of elite small forwards, Middleton may be essential for a balanced lineup, and he makes for an interesting pivot that will come with lower ownership than the stars. One final note on Middleton, which allows us to circle back on Antetokounmpo: of his assisted shots, the most have come from Giannis (31.2%), so if Middleton can hit his shots, it could help Antetokounmpo’s assist total.

Speaking of assists, we can’t forget about Malcolm Brogdon (pro segue), who leads all rookies in the category (317 total, 4.2 per game). The kid will have his work cut out for him facing off with Kyle Lowry, who boasts the fourth-highest DRPM among point guards who play at least 30 minutes per game. As expected, his production has plummeted when playing Toronto – his 16.5% usage rate was 2.6% below his average and his per-minute return dropped all the way from 0.80 FD points to 0.52. To be fair, two of these matchups were within the first 25 games of his career and he really didn’t find his form until the second half of the season. He managed 26.5 FD points when they went against each other in March after Brogdon had permanently entered the starting lineup, but Lowry didn’t play in that one. Instead, he matched up with Cory Joseph, who ranks 78th among 92 qualifying point guards with a DRPM of -2.01. Simply put, this series doesn’t look all that promising for the potential rookie of the year.

The final option worth a look is Greg Monroe. While Thon Maker will start ahead of him, he will play more minutes. He’s been effective with his time this season, producing 1.09 FD ppm, which is the second-best rate on the team. He’s not too expensive on FanDuel at $5.7k, but he’s $900 cheaper on DraftKings, which feels too low. If he can push for 30 minutes, which is very possible, he’ll be a great value at that salary.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,600 $5,000 $9,800 0.79 26.4 -2.1 21.0 -2.6 20.5% -0.3% 11 0.62
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,000 $6,000 0.52 29.2 -1.2 15.1 -1.3 12.0% 0.5% 3 -2.21
Khris Middleton $5,900 $6,100 $12,000 0.84 30.7 0.9 25.8 -3.8 23.0% -3.1% 3 1.09
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,400 $10,200 $18,300 1.28 35.6 -1.5 45.7 -6.6 29.2% -1.3% 5 0.84
Thon Maker $3,600 $2,600 $6,000 0.82 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.2 16.9% -2.4% 10 0.71
Greg Monroe $5,700 $4,800 $9,400 1.09 22.5 -2.6 24.6 -4.3 24.1% 3.9% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Greg Monroe

Toronto Raptors

Lowry is back and ready to roll. He put together two games with at least 45 FD points in the three he played without limitations. He’s going up against a rookie point guard and a team that ranks 16th in DvP against his position. In the 132.8 minutes he’s played since returning from injury, his per-minute production has risen 0.04 FD ppm to 1.08. Predictably, DeMar DeRozan’s production has fallen while Lowry is on the court, but the effect has been greater than normal. During the course of the season, DeRozan’s FD ppm fell 0.09 to 1.02 when he shared the floor with Lowry, but over the past few games, he’s produced just 0.94 FD ppm. On the bright side, his usage has actually increased 1.4% above his season average to 37.5%. That’s an indication that his recent ppm rates will experience some positive regression.

DeRozan loves shooting from mid-range, it’s where he takes 48.4% of his shots. On the season, Milwaukee has allowed the fifth-lowest field goal percentage from that zone (38.7%), but they struggled to defend the area in the second half of the season. In fact, since the All-Star break, they’ve allowed the highest field goal percentage from mid-range in the league (44.7%). DeRozan hits 41.2% of his attempts from the area, but he could see that number rise in this series.

With little value available at shooting guard and small forward on Saturday’s slate, saving cap space at other positions may be vital to success. Milwaukee has had the second-worst rebounding rate in the league since the All-Star break (47.3%), which may open up a nice spot for Jonas Valanciunas, who commands a reasonable $5.5k salary at both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Raptors’ starting center nearly averaged a double-double this season (12.0 points, 9.5 rebounds per game) and he’s demonstrated a high ceiling relative to his price. Catching those ceiling games can be tough as his primary drawback is his inconsistency in both scoring and rebounding. Clearly, he has a favorable matchup for the latter. It also helps that when he’s on the floor he grabs 20.8% of the total rebounds available, which is the sixth-best rate in the league this year (and is now a top-100 performance all-time for a single season). As for scoring, it looks promising as teams have repeatedly attacked the Bucks by going close to the rim. They’ve allowed the seventh-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket since the break, which is where 63.2% of Valanciunas’ made field goals came from this season. Milwaukee is in the bottom seven in opponent field goal attempts from all other distances outside of 25-29 feet. Although they’ve allowed the fewest field goal attempts from 5-9 feet, they’ve allowed the third-worst field goal percentage from that range, 46.6%, and Valanciunas makes 57.8% of his shots from there. All in all, 80.3% of his made baskets came from within 9 feet and the Bucks struggle to defend that area. His bigger problem will be the amount of time he’s afforded to exploit these advantages. On the season, he averages just 26.5 minutes. Fortunately, that trended upwards towards the end of the season. Discounting the final two games when everyone was limited, he earned at least 28 minutes in five of the last six outings and he managed to hit the 30-minute mark against the Heat on April 7th. With tighter rotations for the playoffs, he will hopefully keep receiving some extra time on the court.

Serge Ibaka is a safer bet to get minutes, he’s averaged 31 this season. While his shot selection isn’t so concentrated, one of his favorite spots is near the basket. While he doesn’t have the rebounding prowess of Valanciunas, he collects 12.4% of total rebounds available while he’s on the floor, he could still stand to benefit from Milwaukee’s struggles.

Lowry normally drives to the basket or takes threes. He will certainly benefit from Milwaukee’s struggles to defend the rim. 46.2% of his total field goal attempts are above-the-break threes. Since the break, the Bucks have defended these well, allowing the eighth-lowest field goal percentage from that zone (33.0%). Lowry has his big games when he scores and racks up assists. While his scoring may take a hit if he can’t connect from three, he could contribute plenty of assists through DeRozan and Valanciunas. Plus, Milwaukee allowed 24.1 assists per game this year, which is the fifth-most in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,200 $15,100 1.05 37.4 -4.2 39.4 -3.2 27.3% 0.1% 16 -0.73
DeMar DeRozan $8,300 $8,000 $14,700 1.12 35.4 0.1 39.6 -2.5 34.2% 1.9% 7 -0.79
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $3,100 $6,000 0.66 26.1 -5.8 17.2 -8.5 15.3% -1.0% 10 0.54
Serge Ibaka $5,300 $5,300 $10,500 0.89 30.7 -0.7 27.2 -9.0 20.1% -2.4% 7 1.49
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $5,500 $10,900 1.00 25.8 -1.9 25.8 -2.3 18.7% -0.5% 15 -0.53
Cory Joseph $3,900 $3,500 $7,000 0.73 25.0 -1.8 18.3 -1.3 20.6% 1.8% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs
memphisnba Vegas Total 191.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 191.0
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 91.0 Team Total 100.0
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- -4.0
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Vince Carter JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 6 10 6 3 1
DRPM -0.79 2.10 0.85 1.25 4.86 DRPM -0.50 2.06 0.23 0.59 0.84

Memphis Grizzlies

This series figures to be a slow, defensive battle. It has the lowest total of any game (191.0) and it’s the only one under 200. Both teams have implied totals at least 5.3 points below their average; Memphis’ represents the largest downgrade on the slate (9.5 points). San Antonio has excellent DvP rankings across the board and all their starters have excellent DRPMs outside of Tony Parker.

Mike Conley will surely look to take advantage of this weak spot. He put the team on his back to close out the season. After the break, his usage was a touch higher, rising 0.6% to 28.6% and his per-36 production climbed from 37.48 FD points to 39.18 FD points. A big chunk of his production hinges on points and assists. In terms of scoring, Conley primarily relies on driving to the hoop and shooting threes; 71.6% of his field goal attempts come from within 8 feet, or 24+ feet away. The bad news for Conley is San Antonio is in the top-five in field goal percentage allowed from these areas. Additionally, they allow the sixth-fewest assists per game (21.4). Out of four meetings this season, Conley has had exactly six assists in three of them, which is just shy of his 6.3 average, and he’s averaged 18.0 points, 2.5 points short of his average. The most he scored against them was 22 points and he reached nine assists on them in one outing. He was held under 31.4 FD points in three of their matchups and his best game was a 39.4 FD point performance. Clearly, his ceiling will be limited here, even though he’s be playing really well – keep in mind three of their matchups came on March 18th or later.

Marc Gasol has seen his usage and production decrease on the whole in the second half of the year, despite putting up some big games, including a triple-double against the Hawks. His usage fell 2.2% and his per-36 production decreased from 38.87 to 35.47 FD points. He has also struggled against the Spurs; his best fantasy score was 30.5 FD points over his four attempts. His per-36 pace against them comes out to 27.8 FD points.Although his $7k price tag on both major sites is appealing, it may be better to find a center in a better spot. The key to his success may be whether they give him enough minutes alongside Zach Randolph. When those two were on the court together against San Antonio, Gasol’s per-36 fantasy production didn’t take a hit, it remained at 38.01 FD points. Randolph had a 28.8% usage rate and his 0.99 FD ppm rate is a nice return, even though it’s 0.09 below his average. At $5.5k on FanDuel and $5.2k on DraftKings, Randolph is an interesting mid-range option. Even though he isn’t starting and averages 24.5 minutes, he could be a sneaky bet to hit the 30-minute mark, given how much better he makes Gasol when he’s on the court.

Similar to most teams in the playoffs, Memphis has a few guys at the top that are viable options, and not many value plays below them. With Tony Allen out, Vince Carter and James Ennis are going to start. Not surprisingly, neither have done well against the Spurs on a per-minute basis, earning 0.67 and 0.64 FD ppm, respectively. When Allen is off the floor in general, Carter enjoyed a 1.0% boost in usage and a 0.04 bump in FD ppm during the season. Over the past four weeks, he’s seen his usage drop 0.8% and his FD ppm fall 0.02 with Allen off. Most likely, this is due to Conley’s increased usage in the final four weeks in that situation; his rate rose to 33.6% as opposed to 28.3% during the course of the year. Another interesting discovery regarding this situation, when Memphis played the Spurs this season, Zach Randolph produced 1.08 FD ppm, which was by far the best rate on the team.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,200 $7,200 $13,600 1.06 33.2 -6.4 35.1 -5.7 29.7% 2.7% 8 -0.79
Tony Allen $3,800 $4,100 $8,100 0.76 27.0 -8.7 20.4 -3.2 17.5% 1.3% 12 2.10
Vince Carter $3,500 $3,400 $6,700 0.66 24.7 0.2 16.3 -2.2 15.5% -2.1% 2 0.85
JaMychal Green $3,500 $4,000 $7,800 0.73 27.3 -5.9 19.9 -8.2 14.4% -0.2% 2 1.25
Marc Gasol $7,000 $7,000 $13,300 1.06 34.2 -5.0 36.2 -2.9 27.9% -0.4% 2 4.86
Zach Randolph $5,500 $5,200 $10,200 1.07 24.5 -0.5 26.3 0.1 28.7% 3.3% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph

San Antonio Spurs

As mentioned above, the Spurs have an implied total 5.3 points below their average. It’s a tough matchup, as Memphis allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and they rank in the top six in DvP rankings against all positions outside of shooting guard. As a result, San Antonio’s players are priced down. Most notably, Kawhi Leonard is just $8.3k on FanDuel and $8.5k on DraftKings. His price on FanDuel makes him $2,700 cheaper than LeBron James. With Tony Allen expected to miss this game, if not the whole series, Leonard’s matchup should be easier than originally anticipated.

Over the course of the season, Leonard played the Grizzlies three times. In the two matchups when Tony Allen was active, Leonard failed to exceed 33.4 FD points, but when Allen missed the third, Leonard managed to score 32 actual points and grab 12 rebounds on his way to 57.4 FD points. Another positive note is that Memphis’ defensive rating had trended downward in the second half of the season. On the whole, they rank seventh in the league (104.5), but they were 20th (108.8) after the All-Star weekend. On the season they’re 11th in rebounding percentage (50.4%) and third in opponent FG% (44.3%), after the break, they ranked 16th in rebounding (49.6%) and 16th in opponent FG% (46.0%). If anything, these are promising trends for Kawhi Leonard, and his price his excellent.

As with most teams, pretty much every player took a hit to their production when playing the Grizzlies this season. LaMarcus Aldridge was the only one on the Spurs to avoid a major reduction. In fact, he stayed nearly even with his average; his per-36 pace went from 34.56 FD points to 33.58 FD points. All of the trends listed above work in his favor as well. One of the larger concerns is his shot selection. 54.3% of Aldridge’s field goal attempts come from the mid-range zone, where Memphis allows the second-lowest field goal percentage to opponents (37.5%). Still, his price is low enough that he can provide a solid return on his salary and he isn’t terribly hard to squeeze in.

This will be a tough matchup to find other guys to rely on in fantasy. Danny Green isn’t someone we normally take a look at, but shooting guard is so weak on this slate, he’s worth consideration, especially on FanDuel. Green mostly shoots threes, they account for 69.0% of his field goal attempts, and Memphis has gotten worse at defending guys beyond the arc. They were the 11th-worst team defending shots 20-24 feet away from the hoop (38.6%), and the eighth-worst from 25-29 feet away (36.9%), even though they’re the ninth-best from 20-24 feet and 13th from 25-29 feet. This trend could potentially open up some extra points for Green.

Another player worth consideration is Pau Gasol. The vet only played 25.4 minutes per night during the regular season, but he turned in 1.06 FD ppm with his time on the court, and he could see his playing time increase in the playoffs. Unfortunately, his production took a major hit in 81.9 minutes against Memphis this season; his usage dropped 6.3% and his FD ppm rate fell to 0.79. It may be better to take a shot on a Jonas Valanciunas, who’s in a similar price range, until we see how Gasol looks the first time out in the series and how many minutes we can expect from him.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,100 $4,200 $8,400 0.74 25.2 -5.1 18.6 -2.4 23.1% 2.5% 6 -0.50
Danny Green $3,800 $3,300 $6,400 0.62 26.6 -6.7 16.5 -1.7 13.8% 0.7% 10 2.06
Kawhi Leonard $8,300 $8,500 $15,700 1.22 33.4 -8.6 40.6 -13.7 30.9% -1.6% 6 0.23
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,300 $6,200 $12,300 0.96 32.4 -6.3 31.1 -7.3 24.0% -0.7% 3 0.59
Dewayne Dedmon $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.89 17.5 1.3 15.6 1.1 12.0% 3.1% 1 0.84
Pau Gasol $5,200 $5,100 $10,200 1.06 25.4 -3.9 26.9 -2.4 21.5% 4.2% 1 N/A
Patty Mills $3,800 $3,500 $6,900 0.79 21.9 -3.0 17.2 -6.4 21.8% -0.8% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol, Danny Green

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Los Angeles Clippers
utahnba Vegas Total 200.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 97.5 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- -0.5 Pace +/- -5.1
Proj. Starter George Hill Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 5 22 20 9 Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3
DRPM 2.71 -1.80 2.19 0.41 3.57 DRPM 0.60 0.17 0.13 2.41 6.03

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are dealing with the most injuries of any team on this slate. Rodney Hood has seen his minutes dwindle as he deals with a knee injury, Derrick Favors missed most of March with a knee injury of his own, and George Hill missed six of the final eight games of the season. The good news is they all appear to be pretty healthy now. Hill scored 20 points in 19 minutes his first game back and Favors said he was 100%. Hood, struggled to 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting, but he passed the eye test. All of these guys played limited minutes when they were in the lineup towards the end of the season, which is a bit concerning. However, the Jazz could have just been taking it easy on them to preserve them for the playoffs. With the postseason now here, we can hopefully expect them all to see their minutes push back up.

Los Angeles has a pretty average defense; on the season, they’re 11th in opponent field goal percentage (45.2%), 13th in defensive rating (105.8), 16th in rebounding percentage (49.9%), and 17th in opponent assists per game. After the All-Star break, they headed in the wrong direction in all of these categories; they were 19th in opponent field goal percentage (46.2%), 17th in defensive rating (107.5), 18th in rebounding percentage (29.5%), and 21st in assists per game (24.2). Some of these movements may have been slight, but we can see they’re all in the bottom half of the league.

Under the assumption that Hood and Hill can get their minutes back up, we may want to avoid Gordon Hayward. Although he’s been playing well lately, he’s gotten a big boost from Hood and Hill being on the floor. When these three share the court with Rudy Gobert, Hayward’s per-36 production falls 4.69 DK points to 33.41, which is nearly identical to Hill’s pace of 33.36 DK points. Of course, Hill is substantially cheaper than Hayward – $1,500 on FanDuel and $1,700 on DraftKings – and Hill’s pace would be a decent return on his current salaries. Hill’s individual matchup with Chris Paull will be a tough one, but despite the DvP rankings, Hayward’s will be too as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has a strong DRPM as well. More favorable than both is Hood’s defender, J.J. Redick, who has a poor -1.80 DRPM. While Hood performs worse when he shares the court with the other three –his usage and DK ppm drop 4.0% and 4.7 DK ppm, respectively – we have to find a value play somewhere to squeeze in all the elite plays. As mentioned several times already, there is a severe lack of talent at the shooting guard position on FanDuel, where two are required. He’s definitely worth a shot on the site considering the other options.

The only player who doesn’t take a hit to his production in this lineup is Rudy Gobert, who produces 40.01 DK points per 36 minutes, which is actually a slight upgrade of 0.23 DK points. He has a nice matchup here, despite what the DvP rankings show. As mentioned, the Clippers are 18th in rebounding after the break, which is a good start. On top of that, they’ve allowed the sixth-highest field goal percentage from within five foot of the hoop this season (62.5%), which happens to be where Gobert takes 94.2% of his shots and makes 68.2% of them. The primary downside here is Los Angeles’ ability to avoid blocked shots. Gobert reaches his ceiling when he is swatting a ton of shots, but Los Angeles has allowed the fewest blocks to their opponents this season (3.1 per game).

If Hood and Hill get minutes, it would prevent Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson from becoming viable value plays. Favors is still expected to come off the bench, which means he could be in a time-share with Boris Diaw, preventing either one from getting enough time to help in fantasy. If we get word that Favors is starting, he’ll become a viable value option. His usage ticks up 3.7% when he plays with the other four discussed, and his per-36 pace comes out to 29.74 DK points. Not bad for a guy that’s under $5k on both sites.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $5,800 $5,800 $11,600 0.89 31.5 -11.3 28.0 0.8 24.7% 0.1% 7 2.71
Rodney Hood $4,000 $4,400 $8,700 0.73 27.0 -5.0 19.7 -2.3 22.6% 4.7% 5 -1.80
Gordon Hayward $7,300 $7,500 $13,800 1.00 34.5 -2.8 34.3 1.5 27.6% 1.7% 22 2.19
Derrick Favors $4,800 $4,900 $9,700 0.87 23.7 -6.6 20.7 -3.3 19.8% 5.8% 20 0.41
Rudy Gobert $8,900 $8,300 $15,200 1.05 33.9 -2.8 35.8 -1.6 16.2% 1.5% 9 3.57
Joe Ingles $4,100 $4,500 $8,800 0.68 24.1 7.5 16.3 2.3 15.4% 0.1% 22 N/A
Joe Johnson $4,300 $4,200 $8,400 0.68 23.6 1.7 16.1 5.8 18.7% 3.4% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert, George Hill

Secondary Plays – Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood, Derrick Favors (if starting)

Los Angeles Clippers

Welp, the Clippers play the Jazz in the first round, the team that gives up the fewest fantasy points per game and ranks in the top three across the board in DvP. Every single one of Utah’s starters has a positive DRPM, including Rudy Gobert who has the very best DRPM in the entire league!

Not surprisingly, all of Los Angeles’ starters take notable hits to their fantasy production. All of them lose four DK points per 36 minutes, most notably, DeAndre Jordan goes from 40.30 to 34.84 and potential value shooting guard J.J. Redick drops from 28.5 to 22.17. Chris Paul’s usage is the only one that goes up against the Jazz, rising to 31.5% from 25.7%, which is a pretty dramatic increase. Everyone else’s goes down, as it seems Paul tries to carry the squad when going up against the best D in the league. Given his price on DraftKings ($8.1k), he doesn’t offer a terrible value as his per-36 rate is still 44.27 DK points. If anyone, he’s the one to target of the big three.

We’re forced to look at J.J. Redick against Utah this week given his company at shooting guard. When Austin Rivers went down with a hamstring injury on March 29th, Redick earned 33 minutes made the most of it by dropping 31 points. In the past seven games, he’s done well, topping 30 DK points four times. However, he shot an unsustainable 53.1% from the field during that stretch though, and, as we’ve noted, he’s struggled against Utah all season. Still, he should get a ton of minutes inside a tight rotation and as a result, he could be the third-best shooting guard in terms of raw points on FanDuel, and the second on DraftKings. That’s how ugly it is. Plenty of fantasy players will want to avoid him in this spot if possible, which could suppress his ownership a little bit. Of course, he comes with a ton of risk, but so does everyone else at his position.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $8,700 $8,100 $15,000 1.26 31.5 1.4 39.7 4.2 28.9% 0.2% 1 0.60
J.J. Redick $4,400 $4,600 $9,100 0.72 28.2 3.7 20.2 4.9 21.0% -1.9% 2 0.17
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,700 $2,600 $6,000 0.52 22.3 7.8 11.6 4.9 11.0% 0.9% 1 0.13
Blake Griffin $8,200 $7,700 $14,300 1.15 34.0 1.0 39.0 0.3 28.6% -3.4% 1 2.41
DeAndre Jordan $7,700 $6,800 $12,700 1.08 31.7 2.1 34.3 4.6 14.6% 0.1% 3 6.03
Jamal Crawford $3,600 $3,300 $6,400 0.70 26.3 -2.5 18.3 -4.1 22.8% -3.4% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul

Secondary Plays – J.J. Redick

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).