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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 22nd

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-23 02:01:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks – 3:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks
torontonba Vegas Total 195.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 96.8 Team Total 98.8
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 7 10 7 15 Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10
DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 -0.53 DRPM 0.62 -2.21 1.09 0.84 0.71

Toronto Raptors

Game 3 was ugly for Toronto. They were in a 20-point hole by the end of the first quarter and never made it close. As a team, the Raptors shot 33.8% from the field and DeRozan went 0-for-8. The “best” starter was Kyle Lowry, who scored 13 points while adding five rebounds and two assists. He was the only starter with an assist at all. Part of that is due to missed shots all around – the starters went a combined 11-for-39 – but another obstacle is chemistry. There was plenty of hype surrounding this group heading into the playoffs, about it possibly being their time after making the eastern conference finals last year. However, this group of starters played a grand total of 39.8 minutes together prior to Game 1 of this series. Due to Kyle Lowry’s injury, he was only active for three games alongside Serge Ibaka, who came in a trade just before the all-star break. Even without Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll, the main three guys – Lowry, Ibaka, and DeRozan – shared the court for just 72.3 minutes. In that small sample, Lowry’s usage was down 5.8% while Ibaka’s was 6.8% off his normal mark. If we add in the data from this postseason, we have a 141.9-minute sample and the results aren’t good. The three players lose between 3.4-5.4% off their usage rates while their per-36 paces drop at least 2.75 FD points – Lowry’s falls 2.93 to 34.20, Ibaka’s decreases 2.75 to 26.77, and DeRozan, overly impacted by last game, has experienced a drop of 9.59 FD points, bringing his pace to 29.39. Even if we ignore last game, the results are similar, with the exceptions that DeRozan lost 3.42 FD points from his normal per-36 pace (33.04 total), and Lowry’s usage dropped 7.0%. The latter result shows us that Lowry’s usage was better in Game 3, but at 22.4%, it’s still 4.5% beneath his season average.

Digging a little further, it’s clear this trio has played poorly together. Of the 15 three-man groups Toronto has played at least 25 minutes together through the first two games of the playoffs, the Lowry/DeRozan/Ibaka combo had the second-lowest offensive rating (93.9). As a frame of reference, the 76ers had the lowest offensive rating of any team this season and theirs was 100.7. It would appear something isn’t clicking with Toronto’s big three.

Of course, they don’t play all of their minutes together, but it’s a sizable chunk so far; for example, Lowry has had the most time on the court against the Bucks and 64.6% of his minutes have been with this three-man group. While it’s true we only have a small sample on these three playing together, that’s actually the point, they haven’t had time to develop chemistry.

Perhaps they can turn it around, and they will undoubtedly be motivated today. We’ve already seen Ibaka have two big games, DeRozan wasn’t bad in the first two, and Lowry had a good second game. They all have nice upsides as individuals. However, it looks like they need to take advantage of the time they’re not the floor on together to truly excel in fantasy production, but they play the majority of their minutes with each other. When it comes to today’s slate, Lowry is priced up on FanDuel and more reasonable on DraftKings, but there’s a nice selection of options at the position so he’s probably better for tournaments. DeRozan’s price is fair on both sites. He seems to be the safer choice between him and Lowry and the one with more upside as he consistently maintains the highest usage on the team. He’s closely priced with Bradley Beal and C.J. McCollum on FanDuel and he’s $300 more than Beal on DraftKings. Although he’s risky, so are those guys, so DeRozan remains one of the best targets at his position. Ibaka has a favorable matchup with the Bucks’ weak rebounding and interior shot defense, and he took advantage in the first two games, but he came crashing down to earth in Game 3. While he’s not terribly expensive and he could deliver a good return on his salary, he’s closely priced with Zach Randolph on both sites and LaMarcus Aldridge on DK, both of whom seem like better options. Considering the situation, it seems like Lowry and DeRozan have the best chances of having big games. This is their team, and Ibaka is the new guy. As coach Dwane Casey put it after the Game 1 loss, the Raptors “are going to go as (Lowry) and DeMar goes.” Motivation will likely flow through them, so it would make sense for them to come out firing, DeRozan, their leading scorer, in particular.

The other two starters, Valanciunas and Carroll, haven’t been getting enough time on the court to be great options. P.J. Tucker plays more minutes, he hit 28+ in the first two games, and he’s a potential GPP value pick, but his usage is into the single-digits in this series (9.5%) and he’s returned 0.39 FD points. Cory Joseph started the second half ahead of Valanciunas last game, but finished with two points and three assists over 16 minutes. He has more usage than Tucker (16.2%) but has only produced 0.43 FD points. He may pick up more time on the floor, but he’s still not a strong option. In Game 3, Norman Powell and Delon Wright both scored in the double-digits. Most of their minutes and fantasy points came in garbage time though. Finally, Patrick Patterson hit 30 minutes in Game 2 and 23 in Game 3. He could pick up a nice workload but his 0.52 FD ppm isn’t particularly exciting. In short, the Raptors don’t appear to have many value options for today’s slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,700 $7,700 1.05 37.4 -4.2 39.4 -3.2 27.3% 0.1% 16 -0.73
DeMar DeRozan $8,200 $7,800 1.12 35.4 0.1 39.6 -2.5 34.2% 1.9% 7 -0.79
DeMarre Carroll $3,400 $2,800 0.66 26.1 -5.8 17.2 -8.5 15.3% -1.0% 10 0.54
Serge Ibaka $6,300 $5,900 0.89 30.7 -0.7 27.2 -9.0 20.1% -2.4% 7 1.49
Jonas Valanciunas $5,900 $4,600 1.00 25.8 -1.9 25.8 -2.3 18.7% -0.5% 15 -0.53
Cory Joseph $3,000 $2,900 0.73 25.0 -1.8 18.3 -1.3 20.6% 1.8% 16 N/A
P.J. Tucker $3,500 $3,500 0.65 27.6 -4.7 17.9 -3.7 12.0% -1.3% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD), Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), P.J. Tucker (GPP), Cory Joseph (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks

Game 3 was beautiful for Milwaukee. They were up 20 points after the first quarter and never looked back. As a team, the Bucks shot 52.7% from the field and a ridiculous 52.2% from three. Middleton led the way with 20 points across 34 minutes and he contributed seven assists. He’s now taken at least 14 shots in each game this series while leading the team in minutes and assists. Game 3 was what we had been waiting for from him, as he was passing and shooting efficiently on the same night instead of one or the other. His price is coming up across the industry now, but it seems like most players are equally over-priced on FanDuel for these playoff slates. On DraftKings, he’s $500 cheaper. A lot of Middleton’s value will stem from Durant’s playing status, he’ll be a top-two small forward on FD if Durant is out, top-three if Durant is in. He’s looking like a better points-per-dollar play than Kawhi Leonard on FD ($10,100). However, there are some viable value options at the position, unlike most others, which means spending down at small forward, may be the way to go.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has SF eligibility on DK and he’s possibly the best target on the entire slate. His usage has been up 1.1% to 30.5% for this series, but his per-minute production is slightly down, falling 0.06 FD ppm to 1.23. He’s playing more though, he averaged around 40 minutes in the two games that were competitive. Including the third game, he’s averaging 23.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 block. He’s been doing a bit of everything. During the season, he averaged 5.4 assists and had an assist rate of 26.5%, but that rate has fallen to 23.3%. Middleton is now leading the team with a 24.3% assist rate, an improvement of 6.8%, while Greg Monroe (15.3%), Malcolm Brogdon (20.1%) and even Thon Maker (16.2%) are all contributing. With a team effort like this, it’ll be hard for Antetokounmpo to earn a ton of fantasy points from that particular stat. That also speaks to Brogdon, who’s third on the team in minutes – he averaged around 35.5 over the first two games and the only other guy with more than 30 minutes per game – he racked up nine assists in 28 minutes in Game 3, which represented the majority of his 23.9 FD points. He only scored four points though, after scoring 16 in Game 1 and 11 in Game 2. Brogdon, Middleton, and Antetokounmpo will be the guys who contribute the most assists, but as we’ve seen in this series, there are only so many to go around. They’ve taken turns leading in the category so far, and only Middleton has been consistent, he’s had at least five in each game. Brogdon has been as low as two and Antetokounmpo had three in the opener. The point being, they eat into each other’s production and it’ll be difficult for all three of them to have big fantasy scores.

Brogdon is the cheapest viable point guard option, depending on one’s opinion of Tony Parker, making him an appealing way to save some cap space. His minutes are secure and he’s capable of picking up peripherals. In this series, he’s averaging 9.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. As mentioned, the assists and points can fluctuate, but that makes him an interesting tournament target. Should he be able to put together a complete game, his upside would be high relative to his price, and with all of the options at point guard, his ownership shouldn’t be too bad.

Milwaukee’s best points-per-minute guy comes off the bench; Greg Monroe is averaging 1.34 FD ppm on a 28.9% usage rate in this series, improvements of 0.25 FD ppm and 4.5% on his usage above his regular season averages. He’s only averaging 23.2 minutes per game this postseason, but he’s been above 25 FD points in all three meetings and he topped 33 twice. He’s been feasting on the glass with a 20.9% rebounding rate. His minutes aren’t secure as Kidd starts Thon Maker and likes playing him, but Monroe is in play for tournaments as he’s demonstrated an ability to rack up points quickly. Even though players are overpriced across the board on FanDuel, Monroe’s still feels too high, but he’s $1,300 cheaper on DraftKings.

As mentioned, Maker is starting. He’s played at least 20 minutes in both of the past two games and he’s returned at least 15.4 FD points in each. Coach Jason Kidd will likely keep pushing him into the low-20s, which makes him a potential value flier. He hasn’t developed into much of a rebounder yet, but he’s shown an ability to score and he’s contributed at least two assists in each game. His price is probably too high right now, but he’s someone to keep an eye on in case his playing time starts trending upwards. So far in this series, he’s had 16.2% usage rate and returned 0.88 FD ppm.

Michael Beasley is an even cheaper target at $1,800 on FanDuel. He re-entered the rotation last game in place of Mirza Teletovic. He received 20 minutes and produced 16.6 FD points. His workload was likely inflated due to the blowout as Teletovic had not exceeded 13 minutes in the previous two contests. That means Beasley could feasibly earn 10-15 minutes. Considering he averaged 0.96 FD ppm on a 25.8% usage rate in the regular season, he’s an intriguing GPP target on FD, albeit a very risky one. On DraftKings, he’s an extra $900 and that’s probably not worth the risk.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,700 $5,300 0.79 26.4 -2.1 21.0 -2.6 20.5% -0.3% 11 0.62
Tony Snell $4,000 $4,000 0.52 29.2 -1.2 15.1 -1.3 12.0% 0.5% 3 -2.21
Khris Middleton $7,100 $6,600 0.84 30.7 0.9 25.8 -3.8 23.0% -3.1% 3 1.09
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,000 $10,200 1.28 35.6 -1.5 45.7 -6.6 29.2% -1.3% 5 0.84
Thon Maker $3,900 $3,400 0.82 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.2 16.9% -2.4% 10 0.71
Greg Monroe $6,800 $5,500 1.09 22.5 -2.6 24.6 -4.3 24.1% 3.9% 10 N/A
Matthew Dellavedova $3,800 $3,200 0.63 26.1 -2.8 16.5 -3.7 19.4% 1.7% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (if Kevin Durant out)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (if Kevin Durant in), Malcolm Brogdon, Greg Monroe (GPP), Thon Maker (GPP), Michael Beasley (FD GPP)

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 5:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Atlanta Hawks
washingtonnba Vegas Total 209.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 106.3
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7 Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20
DRPM -2.53 -1.35 2.66 3.29 2.92 DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33

Washington Wizards

The Wizards won both games at home and now they head to Atlanta as 3.0-point underdogs. John Wall has been crushing it. His usage is up 4.4% to 36.8% and he’s produced 1.42 FD ppm, an improvement of 0.17 above his regular season average. He’s leading all players in the postseason with 11.5 assists per game and he’s fifth in points (32.0). He’s playing aggressive, he’s fourth in drives per game (13.0) and 45.6% of his shot attempts have come within five feet of the hoop. That’s helped him get to the line 10.5 times per game (fifth) and he’s shot 85.7% from the charity stripe. These trends are great as the concern heading into this matchup was the difficulty he may experience driving to the basket on the Hawks interior defense. While he’s only completing 50% of his attempts inside of five feet, he’s going in so often, he’s making up for the mediocre percentage. After the all-star break, Atlanta surrendered the seventh most assists per game (25.0), so that area of his game wasn’t as a much a concern. Surprisingly, his price didn’t go up on FanDuel with the rest of the point guards, but it’s been raised $500 on DraftKings. This makes him a great deal on FanDuel, and he’s going to be popular there.

Second on the team in usage this postseason is Bradley Beal, with a 34.8% rate, 6.5% above his regular season average. His per-minute production has declined slightly, 0.04 FD ppm to 0.90, but that’s most likely due to his abnormally poor three-point shooting. Beal has converted 28.6% of his attempts from deep, well below the 40.4% mark he posted during the season. In Game 2 he went 4-for-10 from long range and ended with 31 points and 39.9 FD points. He’s a scoring dependent player – 70.3% of his FD production came from points – so his salary on FanDuel prevents him from being a good cash play. On DraftKings, he’s a little cheaper, and he benefits from the three-point bonus.

With Ian Mahinmi sidelined, Marcin Gortat has averaged 33.2 minutes per game and he’s averaged a double-double, 14.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, to go along with 3.5 blocks. In Game 2 he received 35 minutes but he received a little more time than normal due to Markieff Morris’ in foul trouble. Gortat will normally play in the low-30s until Mahinmi returns, which makes his recent salary increase concerning. During the regular season, he returned 0.85 FD ppm and he’s elevated that to 1.06 in the postseason. Some of that increase stems from his seven blocks in two games, which is an unsustainable rate. If he were playing 36+ per game he has the potential to crush his salary, but it’ll be difficult for him to do it in 31 minutes. He’s very consistent with his production though, so he’s still in play for cash, he may not have the upside for tournaments though.

Morris only ended up playing for 20 minutes and never really got into a rhythm and Otto Porter had a similar issue (23 minutes). In the first game, Morris played 38 minutes and he could push past 36 again, while Porter played 32 and he’ll likely be stuck in the low-30s with Kelly Oubre and Bojan Bogdanovic working into the rotation. During the season, they both returned 0.83 FD points, but Morris had a 21.9% usage to Porter’s 16.2%. He’s clearly the better option due to his larger workload. He took 19 shots in Game 1, which was the third-most he’s taken this season. It’s unlikely he’ll take that number again, but he will possibly cut into Bradley Beal’s FGAs. Beal took 27 in Game 2 with Morris sidelined and 21 in Game 1.

There isn’t much on the bench. Jason Smith logged 28 minutes last game and posted 24.1 FD points, but again, that was due to Morris’ foul trouble. Brandon Jennings came out firing, going 4-of-5 on his way to 10 points. He’s around $3k on both sites and it’s doubtful he can have a repeat performance and highly unlikely he could beat it considering he’s averaging 15.8 mpg. As with Jennings and Smith, the rest of the bench will be held under 20 minutes per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,300 $10,800 1.24 36.4 -2.1 45.3 -3.5 34.8% 0.3% 24 -2.53
Bradley Beal $7,800 $7,500 0.94 34.9 0.6 32.9 1.9 26.4% -0.7% 25 -1.35
Otto Porter $5,000 $5,200 0.82 32.6 -11.8 26.7 -8.2 14.8% 3.6% 28 2.66
Markieff Morris $6,400 $5,800 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -0.8 19.8% 4.3% 8 3.29
Marcin Gortat $5,800 $6,000 0.85 31.2 -5.1 26.4 -2.8 14.7% 0.1% 7 2.92

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal (FD GPP, DK), Marcin Gortat (FD cash)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (FD cash), Markieff Morris, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat (DK. FD GPP)

Atlanta Hawks

Paul Millsap had a nice revenge game on Wednesday, scoring 27 points and making it a double-double with ten rebounds. He managed to get to the charity stripe 15 times and made 14. He ended up playing 35 minutes, which was second to Dennis Schroder (38). That seems to be about what we can expect from him each game. As with many players, he’s a difficult choice on FanDuel ($8,100) but remains favorably priced on DraftKings ($7,400). During the season, he averaged 1.09 DK ppm, but his usage rate has gone up 2.4%, so he could see a slight uptick in his fantasy production. He came out more aggressive in Game 2, as he promised, and it helped get Morris in foul trouble. That helped his bottom line as Morris gave him all sorts of trouble in the first outing. Assuming Morris gets a full complement of minutes, Millsap will have a bigger challenge on his hands and it will be difficult to replicate his big success.

Schroder has been playing well regardless of which Wizards are on the court with him, he’s scored at least 39 DK points in both outings. Across 16 games with at least 36 minutes during the regular season, he averaged 42 DK points and exceeded 43 DK points 62.5% of the time. At $7,200, he’s a phenomenal deal on DK. As for FanDuel, he averaged 38.8 FD points and topped 42.5 FD points 37.5% of the time; he doesn’t feel like such a great choice at $8,500.

There are two other players averaging 30+ mpg: Tim Hardaway Jr. and Taurean Prince. Hardaway went up to 35 minutes in Game 2 after Bazemore got into foul trouble. It seems like these two could have slightly unpredictable minutes depending on who has the hot hand, but more than likely, Hardaway only saw an increased workload due to Bazemore’s fouls. Heading into the playoffs, Bazemore was on a tear coming off the bench, but he’s since cooled. In the past two games, he’s returned 0.71 DK ppm, a decline on 0.12 below his season average. His usage is also down 6.5% to 15.3% while Hardaway’s is up 1.7% to 25.2%. At the same time, Hardaway’s per-minute production has a taken a big hit, primarily due to his poor shooting, he’s made 28.0% of his field goal attempts so far and 20.0% from three. He was better in the second game, scoring 19 points, but he still only shot 35.7% and wasn’t able to add many peripheral stats. He had been improving in rebounds and assists towards the end of the year, so that should track back up, same with his shooting percentage as the Wizards allowed the seventh-highest field goal percentage this season. He doesn’t have a safe floor though, and he could continue to lose minutes to Bazemore, so he’s more of a tournament option. Even if Bazemore picks up more time, he’ll likely be held under 30 minutes and he’s a streaky shooter. Given his price, he’s a potential tournament value play; if he gets hot, he could crush his salary. Prince is right around the same price, but he offers limited upside. Thabo Sefolosha took a few minutes from him last game as well, which held Prince to 30 minutes. It’s possible Sefolosha, who isn’t a viable fantasy option, disappears again. Even so, Prince won’t be a great target with the rest of the team healthy.

Keeping with the theme of Game 2, Dwight Howard also got into foul trouble and ended up playing 20 minutes. He should play more going forward, but even in Game 1 he only received 29 minutes. He’s been a reliable rebounder when he’s in, but he hasn’t been featured as a scorer, he’s averaging 5.5 FGAs. Without more playing time, it’ll be hard for Howard to have big games. There aren’t many other options on FanDuel, but Marcin Gortat is a potential option and he’s $1,500 cheaper. Howard has a beatable price tag of DraftKings ($6,300), there are a few other centers available there with more promising outlooks. Circling back on Millsap, the more Howard plays, the fewer rebounds he’ll be able to grab.

Coming off the bench, Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala have been picking up 15-20 minutes again. It’s not enough for them to be great value plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $8,500 $7,200 0.95 31.5 -2.7 30.0 -3.3 30.3% -7.1% 9 -0.83
Tim Hardaway $5,300 $5,000 0.80 27.3 4.2 21.8 9.8 22.4% -0.8% 16 -0.94
Taurean Prince $4,200 $4,500 0.70 16.6 11.1 11.7 5.0 17.0% 0.0% 17 0.03
Paul Millsap $8,100 $7,400 1.03 34.0 -4.7 35.0 -3.2 24.9% 4.1% 22 1.54
Dwight Howard $7,300 $6,300 1.10 29.7 -6.5 32.7 -5.7 18.6% 6.1% 20 1.33
Kent Bazemore $4,300 $4,400 0.76 26.9 -4.6 20.5 1.4 20.6% 0.7% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (DK), Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (FD), Dwight Howard, Kent Bazemore (GPP), Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP)

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies
sanantonionba Vegas Total 187.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 187.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 95.5 Team Total 92.0
Pace +/- -4.0 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Mike Conley Vince Carter James Ennis JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 10 6 3 1 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM -0.50 0.23 1.40 0.59 0.84 DRPM -0.79 2.10 0.85 1.25 4.86

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs lost Game 3 by 11 points despite shooting 47.2% from the field and 41.7% from three. How’s that for data?

LaMarcus Aldridge came alive in this one, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in 30 minutes. Memphis was up by 18 at the end of the third which kept his minutes down, along with Kawhi Leonard, who also played for 30. Both players will get 36+ in close games. Memphis still has the second-worst defensive rating this postseason (116.0), but the pace of these games is an insanely low 86.88. That’s one of the reasons why San Antonio has averaged the fewest field goal attempts in the playoffs (69.7 per game). That’s hurt guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, who’s averaging 11.3 shots per game, 3.3 below average, and Kawhi Leonard, who’s taken 13 shots per game after launching 17.7 all season. Fortunately for Leonard, he’s been super efficient, scoring 87 points on 39 field goal attempts. That’s obviously an unsustainable rate, which means it’ll be difficult for him to pay off his new $10,100 price tag on FanDuel. He was a really nice target last game at $8,600, but this is too much for this matchup. The games are too slow. Even in the first two games when he was ridiculously efficient and scored 30+ points in each, he didn’t hit the 50-point mark (in FD points). In terms of peripherals, San Antonio is last in assists this postseason (15.3) and tenth in total rebounds (41.0 per game) despite being third in rebounding rate (54.4%). There simply aren’t enough possessions in each game. If Durant is out, he’ll be top small forward on FanDuel in terms of raw points and there aren’t many cash options below him, so he’d become a top option by default, but it’s going to be hard for him to have enough upside against his salary for tournaments. On both sites, the Greek Freak is about $1,000 more, and even though the Bucks-Raptors games are going slow as well (92.34), it’s still an extra six possessions per game. To be clear, Leonard’s price on DraftKings is favorable ($9,000) when he’s projected to get 36+, the FanDuel salary just seems extreme.

Aldridge, despite the pace, remains a very nice target on DraftKings as well at $6,200. His per-36 pace during the regular season was 35.89 DK points, so even with a hit based on pace, his average return in this situation would likely exceed 5X. His FanDuel price is $7,200 and his average per-36 pace was 34.56 FD points. He was an obvious choice when he was priced around $6,000, but there are several cheaper options worth considering.

Going beyond these two doesn’t seem necessary on this slate. On previous ones, Danny Green came into play due to the shortage of shooting guards – he hasn’t hit the 20-point mark yet, and his production has declined each game – and Tony Parker had been playing well, making him a viable point guard. Parker’s early success seems like a flash in the pan, his usage was abnormally high in the first two games and he was shooting at an unsustainably high rate (71.4% from three and 53.8% overall). In Game 3, he was held scoreless and contributed zero assists in 19 minutes. He’s going to do better in Game 4, but it’s probably not going to be enough when there are so many other great targets on this slate.

The one bench player of interest is Pau Gasol. He should get around 30 minutes a night and he returned 1.12 DK ppm this season. He’s really struggled to score against Memphis so far, completing 36.4% of his attempts, and he’s averaged 5.7 rebounds per game, which is 2.1 below his normal rate. Again, the pace is killing him in terms of shot attempts and peripherals, but he should do better than he has been. He’s under $5k on DraftKings and there are few good points-per-dollar options at the position on FanDuel. While he’s not the best target in this matchup, he’s a potential contrarian GPP pick due to the other centers available and their pricing.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,800 $4,200 0.74 25.2 -5.1 18.6 -2.4 23.1% 2.5% 6 -0.50
Danny Green $4,400 $4,000 0.62 26.6 -6.7 16.5 -1.7 13.8% 0.7% 10 0.23
Kawhi Leonard $10,100 $9,000 1.22 33.4 -8.6 40.6 -13.7 30.9% -1.6% 6 1.40
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,200 $6,200 0.96 32.4 -6.3 31.1 -7.3 24.0% -0.7% 3 0.59
Dewayne Dedmon $2,300 $2,500 0.89 17.5 1.3 15.6 1.1 12.0% 3.1% 1 0.84
Pau Gasol $5,400 $4,700 1.06 25.4 -3.9 26.9 -2.4 21.5% 4.2% 1 N/A
Manu Ginobili $2,900 $3,000 0.84 18.7 -0.5 15.7 -6.6 22.0% -1.2% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard (DK, FD if Durant out), LaMarcus Aldridge (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard (FD if Durant in), LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol (GPP)

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis’ big three – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph – all had nice performances last game. They all shot 53.8% or better from the field and 40.0% or better from three, Randolph and Gasol each had 6+ assists, and Conley turned in eight assists. Randolph has joined the starting lineup and based on the success they’ve had with him in the lineup thus far, he should remain in that role. He’s also going to be pushing into the mid-30s when the games are close. He played 29 in Game 3, but the Spurs threw in the towel in the middle of the fourth quarter. When Randolph has been on the court with Gasol and Conley in this series (44.9 minutes), he’s led in usage (29.3%) and he’s delivered 1.01 FD ppm. His per-minute production seems a little suspect as Marc Gasol has only produced 0.65 FD ppm in that sample while Conley’s returned 0.78 FD ppm. During the regular season, these guys were on the floor together for 398.9 minutes. Randolph maintained a 1.00 FD ppm rate, but he was third to Gasol’s 1.03 and Conley’s 1.05. Also, Conley led in usage with 29.3% followed by Gasol at 27.2% and then Randolph (23.7%). More than likely, we’ll see the usage rates trend towards their regular season averages. It would make sense if we saw similar movement with their ppm rates. If we add up their ppm from the season, it’s 3.08 whereas in their series with the Spurs their average rates add up to 2.44. This highlights the idea of the slow pace bringing down total fantasy production. Still, Randolph is one of the few players over $6k on FanDuel that feels like a good deal. Even if his per-minute production slows against the Spurs, he should get enough minutes to provide a good return on his salary.

Conley and Gasol have both averaged over 20 points per game, Gasol has grabbed 5.7 boards, and Conley has contributed 7.7 assists. Conley has taken 45 shots while Gasol has launched 47. Those two and Randolph (47) are the only ones on Memphis that have taken more than 19 FGAs. With Randolph on the floor, Gasol will have trouble pulling down extra boards, he only averaged 6.2 to begin with, and Conley is cutting into his assists. Gasol’s assist rate has fallen sharply from 24.8% to 15.6% in this series while Conley’s has jumped from 34.5% to 45.6% – that would have been good for fifth in the league this season. That means he has to rely more on scoring for his fantasy production, making him riskier, and it caps his ceiling. His best game (44 FD points) game in the first one, when he scored 32 points, Randolph only played 26 minutes and Conley 18. He’s a balanced shooter, who can hit from anywhere, but he will have fewer opportunities with Randolph in the starting lineup. As with pretty much all the centers on FanDuel, he’s not a very good deal, but he is the top projected at his position in terms of raw points. On DraftKings, he still has a beatable salary. Conley is right around $8,000 on both sites. His command of the offense in the postseason has been fun to watch and his assist rate is through the roof. As a result, he’s led the team with 1.09 FD ppm on a 29.5% usage rate and both marks are slightly above average. He played 38 minutes in Game 1 and that’s where we can expect him in close games. He projects higher than Gasol, and arguably has a bigger upside since Randolph is less of a threat to his production. There are so many point guards, he’s not quite “elite” relative to the slate, but he’s borderline.

As mentioned, no one else has taken more than 19 shots, and outside of Vince Carter everyone’s minutes are in the low-20s. There isn’t much reason to dig for value on this team.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $8,200 $7,900 1.06 33.2 -6.4 35.1 -5.7 29.7% 2.7% 8 -0.79
Vince Carter $3,700 $3,600 0.66 24.7 0.2 16.3 -2.2 15.5% -2.1% 12 2.10
James Ennis $3,400 $3,700 0.60 23.4 -5.2 14.1 -3.5 13.0% -3.0% 2 0.85
JaMychal Green $3,200 $3,300 0.73 27.3 -5.9 19.9 -8.2 14.4% -0.2% 2 1.25
Marc Gasol $8,000 $7,100 1.06 34.2 -5.0 36.2 -2.9 27.9% -0.4% 2 4.86
Zach Randolph $6,500 $6,500 1.07 24.5 -0.5 26.3 0.1 28.7% 3.3% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

Secondary Plays – None

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Portland Trail Blazers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 217.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 111.3 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 6 11 25 18 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.39 -1.93 -0.28 0.33 1.30 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61

Golden State Warriors

Kevin Durant is questionable for tonight’s game. Golden State destroyed Portland without him, so it doesn’t make much sense to rush him back too soon. Coach Steve Kerr said they won’t play him unless he’s 100%, so there’s a good chance they hold him out again. If he plays, he might not get a full complement of minutes. It’s worth tracking, but if no announcement is made before lock, he’s a risky bet. It also means that those that benefit from his absence will have some added risk.

Steph Curry is the primary player affected by Durant’s status. In the 32.2 minutes he’s played without Durant this postseason, his usage rate has been 34.1% and he’s produced 1.31 FD ppm. Compared to his season average with Durant on the court, that’s a 6.2% increase in usage and an improvement of 0.15 FD ppm. Of course, he can get hot at any point and light up the scoreboard, but he’s way more likely to do so when Durant is not on the floor taking shots away from him. Portland allowed the fourth-highest three-point shooting percentage this season (37.0%) and they were 21st in defensive rating (107.8). On top of that, this series has been played at the fastest pace by far, 105.23, so it’s definitely a favorable matchup. And Curry took advantage of that in Game 2, scoring 41.2 FD points in 31 minutes. He could’ve had more but he shot 33.3% from the field and got pulled early because of the score. Another blowout is definitely a concern, but Portland should keep it closer at home – the spread is only 5.5 points.

In 41 minutes without Durant, Klay Thompson has experienced a 3.4% bump in usage, which places him second on the team at 31.6%. He hasn’t been able to convert that into fantasy production though, as he turned in 0.75 FD ppm during that stretch. He’s more of a tournament guy because he needs to score a bunch, but he has the same matchup as Steph, which suits him well. He should pick it up. Like many others, he’s a better deal on DraftKings. Draymond Green is $700 cheaper on DK, with his price on FanDuel at $8,800, but that isn’t the worst price we’ve seen today considering the way he’s been playing. After triple-doubling in Game 1, he double-doubled in the follow-up with 12 rebounds and 10 assists, he also added three blocks and a steal. In the 42.3 minutes he’s played without Durant this postseason, he’s produced a ridiculous 1.59 FD ppm. That’s a bit inflated due to his amazing opening game, but he still scored 40.40 FD points last game in 30 minutes. He’s just turned up a notch for the playoffs and it’s great for fantasy.

Patrick McCaw started in Durant’s place and scored 18.5 FD points in 34 minutes. He’ll likely get the nod again, but in a closer game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Andre Iguodala cut into his time. And if Matt Barnes ends up playing, he could cut into his workload as well. McCaw is not a particular exciting option. Even with Durant off the floor this season, he averaged 0.57 FD ppm. Iguodala may come off the bench, but he played 27 minutes last game and could cross 30 this time around. He’s been playing really well the past month; with Durant off the floor over the past four weeks, he’s produced 0.99 FD ppm. In Game 2, he returned 29 FD points in those 27 minutes. He’s going to be a great, and popular, mid-range option at small forward.

If Matt Barnes suits up and Durant is out, he’s in play solely because he costs $1,800 on FanDuel. It’s a risky proposition, but he could potentially play 15 minutes and he returns 0.66 FD ppm with Durant off the floor. That really isn’t enough, he’d have to out-perform his average and probably get more minutes to be worth it, but it’s something to look at as a potentially sneaky way to free up salary space in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,800 $9,100 1.25 33.4 -2.5 41.6 5.5 31.3% 3.6% 10 -1.39
Klay Thompson $7,600 $6,700 0.91 34.0 -3.3 30.9 4.0 24.6% 4.4% 6 -1.93
Kevin Durant $10,400 $9,200 1.36 33.4 -3.2 45.5 -4.4 28.0% -1.7% 11 -0.28
Draymond Green $8,800 $8,100 1.06 32.5 -7.9 34.6 -13.0 19.3% 1.6% 25 0.33
Zaza Pachulia $4,100 $2,700 0.96 18.1 1.2 17.4 -2.2 15.7% -2.3% 18 1.30
Andre Iguodala $5,200 $5,100 0.75 26.3 -3.9 19.7 -0.4 13.2% 4.0% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala (if Durant out), Kevin Durant (if playing without restrictions)

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (GPP), Matt Barnes (FD GPP, if Durant out)

Portland Trail Blazers

After a pair of dynamite performances from C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, they followed up with duds in Game 2. They were both under 30% from the field, scored 12 or fewer points, and had two assists combined. Golden State held opponents to the lowest field goal percentage this season (43.5%) and posted the second-lowest defensive rating (101.1); they aren’t an easy matchup. However, as discussed, they’re playing this series at a super high pace, which is good for all of these players from a fantasy perspective. Portland has attempted the most field goals per game in the playoffs (91.5), which is good news for the scorers, McCollum and Lillard. This matchup has had the most rebounds as well (92.2 per game). While Golden State is second in assists (28.5 per game), they’ve held Portland to the second-fewest (16.0 per game). That’s obviously not great for Lillard or McCollum, who averaged 5.9 and 3.4 assists per game, respectively, but are both contributing 1.5 per game in the postseason. For what it’s worth, they both averaged more assists at home than on the road; Lillard averaged 6.2 and McCollum 4.1.

Both guys should do better in this game and they should play plenty of minutes and take a ton of shots if it stays close. Over the past four weeks, Lillard has elevated his game, bringing his usage rate to 33.7% and his per-minute production to 1.21 FD ppm. He’s priced up with everyone else on FanDuel, but he should step up tonight and feed off the home crowd’s energy. It would make sense for him to truly take over the offense. McCollum is a streaky shooter, who has a wide range of outcomes, he has shot slightly better at home this season – 48.2% vs. 47.9% overall; 43.2% vs. 41.0% from three – but he’s more of a tournament player.

Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful, which means the Trail Blazers will likely play small once again with Evan Turner and Moe Harkless in the starting lineup. Harkless had a really nice outing in Game 2 with 15 points, eight rebounds, three blocks, and a steal. All in all, he scored 33.1 FD points in 29 minutes. His performances can be sporadic, but he’s expected to push into the mid-30s minute-wise in a fast-paced game. He’s one of several tournament options at small forward tonight. He may have inflated ownership due to last game’s results, which makes Turner a nice pivot. With Nurkic off the floor and McCollum and Lillard on over the past four weeks, Turner has a higher usage rate (16.1% vs. 12.6%) and he produces way more fantasy points per minute (0.87 vs. 0.60). In Game 1 Turner’s double-double was overshadowed by the performances of Portland’s stars, but he scored 12 and grabbed 10 boards on his way to 31 FD points overall. Turner should push towards the 36-minute mark as he did in Game 1.

Noah Vonleh will continue to start without Nurkic available, and he’ll likely be limited to the mid-20s along with Al-Farouq Aminu and Allen Crabbe off the bench. They aren’t too exciting with the limited workload, but they’re potential tournament options (more so on DK), as they’ve produced between 0.79-0.86 DK ppm with Nurkic off the floor over the past four weeks. Aminu is the best of the trio, he managed 23.25 DK points in 24 minutes last game and he’s just $4,300.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,500 $8,300 1.16 35.9 1.6 41.5 6.3 32.7% 3.7% 3 0.24
C.J. McCollum $8,000 $7,000 0.95 34.9 -0.1 33.3 -6.1 27.7% 0.3% 14 -0.91
Evan Turner $4,700 $5,200 0.76 25.5 0.2 19.3 1.3 20.0% 1.6% 5 1.35
Maurice Harkless $4,900 $4,900 0.69 28.9 -0.5 19.8 -5.7 14.7% -4.7% 21 5.08
Noah Vonleh $4,000 $3,800 0.70 17.1 12.9 11.9 10.0 12.6% -2.5% 12 3.61
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,000 $4,300 0.75 29.1 2.5 21.9 -1.0 15.2% -0.1% 5 N/A
Allen Crabbe $4,200 $3,200 0.60 28.5 0.6 17.2 11.0 14.7% 0.7% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum (FD GPP, DK)

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum (FD cash), Evan Turner (GPP), Moe Harkless (GPP), Al-Farouq Aminu (DK GPP)

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).