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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 06 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-02-06 21:15:34

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Chicago at Minnesota – 08:00 PM

Chicago Minnesota
chicagonba Vegas Total minnesotanba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 98.67 Team Pace 96.91
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose E’Twaun Moore Tony Snell Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 21 14 15 9 9 Opp. Season 26 17 24 16 26
Opp. Last 7 22 17 9 13 4 Opp. Season 11 25 19 10 25

Chicago

Record: 27-22 — Road: 11-13 — Last 10: 4-6

The total and spread for this game is still TBD as Jimmy Butler is doubtful for tonight, while Pau Gasol is questionable. It would be a shock to see Butler play, and Gasol’s status is the big one to watch as both Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis would be in line for big minutes should Gasol sit again.

Pau Gasol (Q)
Jimmy Butler (D)
Nikola Mirotic (O)
Mike Dunleavy (Q)

Elite Plays

Derrick Rose

Even if Pau Gasol plays, Rose is set to see a huge usage increase with Jimmy Butler likely out tonight. He’s been great over his past two games, and Minnesota is 21st in DVP against PG on the season. He’s an elite option at PG tonight and his cheap price point makes him a great pairing with a Westbrook or Curry.

FD — $6,200— PG
DK — $6,500— PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 26.2

Taj Gibson(if Pau Gasol is out)

He’s a secondary only option should Gasol play, but he’s an elite value if Gasol sits another game. He played 36 minutes last night, and topped 30 FD points for the third time in five games.

FD — $5,300— PF
DK — $5,800— PF
Min/Game —Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.7

Secondary Plays

Bobby Portis (if Pau Gasol is out)

Taj is the much safer option should Gasol sit, but Portis is a tournament punt option in that scenario. He still didn’t start last night, but he played 27 minutes off the bench and produced 23 FD points, which exceeds value around the industry.

FD — $3,500— PF
DK — $4,000— PF
Min/Game —Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 21.8
FP/Game — Season: 13.1

E’Twaun Moore (if JImmy Butler is out)

He scares me as he’s very scoring dependent but he should continue to start, even if Jimmy Butler were to magically suit up. His minutes are way up and if the Bulls are without Butler and Pau then there will be extra shot attempts to go around. He’s certainly not someone I’d go all in on but he’s a candidate for a stars and scrubs lineup if you’re stacking the OKC/GS game. Do keep an eye on the status of Mike Dunleavy as he could be activated and could potentially cut into Moore’s minutes.

FD — $4,000— SG
DK — $4,500— SG
Min/Game —Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 10.2

Minnesota

Record: 15-36 — Home: 7-18 — Last 10: 3-7

Kevin Garnett (D)
Nikola Pekovic (D)
Kevin Martin (Q)

Minnesota draws a solid offensive matchup against a Chicago team that has been struggling defensively recently, and has allowed the 26th most fantasy points this season. They will likely continue to be without Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic, which means Gorgui Dieng and Karl Anthony-Towns are in great spots against a weak Chicago interior.

UPDATE – I forgot to hit on Andrew Wiggins as he’s a guy I don’t really like rostering due to how scoring dependent he is. However, with Jimmy Butler ruled out, the Bulls really lack a wing defender and Wiggins has played a ton of minutes recently and been very productive. I think he’s a fine secondary option or GPP pivot from Klay Thompson

Elite Plays

Gorgui Dieng

I like the upside of Towns better for tournaments but Gorgui looks like an elite cash game option tonight. The Bulls interior defense is very weak, and they could be without Pau Gasol once again. His salary fits very nicely with the high end Warriors/Thunder options and he’s been locked into 30+ minutes a night recently.

FD — $5,600— C
DK — $6,100— C
Min/Game —Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 21.4

Secondary Plays

Karl Anthony-Towns

My guess is Gorgui will be the much preferred Minnesota center option due to the price difference. For tournaments, I think Towns is a great pivot to spend up to as he’s shown big upside when he avoids foul trouble. In the first meeting with the Bulls, he poured in 17 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 blocks.

FD — $8,500— C
DK — $8,100— C
Min/Game —Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.4

Ricky Rubio

He’s going to go overlooked due to the deep PG position tonight, and he’s a guy that you can only trust in tournaments. However, I think he’s an intriguing tournament option on DK due to his triple double upside. Derrick Rose defense has not been good this season as the Bulls are 26th in DVP against PG.

FD — $6,900— PG
DK — $6,300— PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.1

Dallas at Memphis – 08:00 PM

Dallas Memphis
dallasnba Vegas Total 194 memphisnba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 96.58 Team Pace 95.38
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 10 4 18 11 3 Opp. Season 13 8 9 27 10
Opp. Last 7 21 1 16 12 14 Opp. Season 19 8 2 24 27

Dallas

Record: 28-25 — Road: 13-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavs are in one of the tougher spots on the day as they were crushed last night by the Spurs and now face a back to back against a red-hot Memphis team. Memphis has once again been stingy in PPG allowed, which is evident by the Mavericks’ very low team total.

There’s been mention of the Mavs resting Dirk Nowitzki, but no final word has come out yet. If Dirk does sit then Charlie Villanueva would likely draw the start and you could play the Charlie V or Dwight Powell guessing game, which is never fun. I’d feel pretty comfortable fading the Mavs as a whole in this one. I’m probably not going there but Zaza Pachulia has been solid against the Grizz this year averaging 11.5 PPG, 14 rebounds and 2 assists in two meetings.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chandler Parsons (if Dirk Nowitzki is out)

If Dirk Nowitzki plays then I’ll probably just avoid the entire Mavericks team. However, if he sits then Parsons should pick up some extra usage. Outside of the game last night against the elite perimeter defense in the league, he has been pretty good over his last ten games and could be worth a tournament look.

FD — $6,700— SF
DK — $6,400— SF
Min/Game —Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 21.3

Memphis

Record: 30-20 — Home: 19-7 — Last 10: 9-1

The Grizzlies have finally turned it on as they are 9-1 over their past ten games, and have been a quality home team all season long. Despite their recent hot streak, they are a tough team to target from a DFS standpoint as they spread around production and most of their team has limited upside.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Given some of the other games on this slate, this is one that you can probably safely fade. However, if you are looking to a Grizzly then Gasol has been the best one to target this season. Dallas has struggled against centers recently, and Gasol does bring that occasional 45 fantasy upside to the table.

FD — $8,200— C
DK — $7,500— C
Min/Game —Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.2

Jeff Green

Green has continued to play very well off the bench for the Grizzlies and has been their top offensive weapon recently. He’s produced at least 26.5 FD points in each of his past five games, to go with solid upside. However, he’s a guy who is notoriously volatile so he’s a guy that I only consider in tournaments as a dud could easily be right around the corner.

FD — $5,700— SF
DK — $5,700— SF
Min/Game —Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.1

L.A. Lakers at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

L.A. Lakers San Antonio
lalakersnba Vegas Total 202 sanantonionba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd 15.0 Vegas Sprd -15.0
Team Proj. 93.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 98.42 Team Pace 96.21
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David West
Opp. Season 5 1 1 4 4 Opp. Season 30 30 26 22 28
Opp. Last 7 12 2 10 23 16 Opp. Season 15 28 15 25 10

L.A. Lakers

Record: 11-41 — Road: 5-23 — Last 10: 2-8

I’ve been avoiding the Spurs defense like the plague and I’ll certainly be taking that route with the Lakers tonight. They are 15 point underdogs and have only averaged 91 PPG in the two previous meetings with the Spurs this season. If I had to take a Laker, I’d probably play the blowout angle and roll with a D’Angelo Russell, who has averaged 21 PPG, 3.5 rebound and 4.5 assists against San Antonio this season, or maybe a Brandon Bass, who has been playing 20 to 27 minutes a night recently.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio

Record: 42-8 — Home: 27-0 — Last 10: 8-2

Tim Duncan (O)

The primary problem when targeting the Spurs is the blowout factor as they’ve been hammering everyone. That was on full display last night, and it’s hard to envision the same not occurring tonight. Given the possible/likely blowout some of the Spurs bench players could be worth a look. The problem is that Popovich has used every single player on his roster in both meetings with the Lakers this season so even the bench players haven’t seen a huge uptick.

I think a lot of people are going to think they’re being sneaky by rostering Boban Marjanovich, but given the stars and scrubs nature of this slate, he could be more popular than you think. He does offer high fantasy point per minute upside and played 17 minutes last night, so he could be worth a tournament dart throw. However, I would not trust him in cash games as the Spurs have beaten the Lakers by 22 and 13 points this season and Boban only played 14 total minutes. If the PG position wasn’t so deep, I’d be a little intrigued by Patty Mills, with Manu also out, but it’s very risky to roll the dice at PG tonight as you could be in a huge hole.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

The matchup is elite and he’s playing great basketball but the blowout risk makes him iffy for cash games. His price point is still very low though and he’s been very good with Duncan out of the lineup. He managed to produce 36 fantasy points in limited minutes last night so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him average well over a fantasy point per minute in this one.

FD — $7,100— PF
DK — $7,200— PF
Min/Game —Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 30

Kawhi Leonard

He’s similar to Aldridge in that I like his price, but the blowout factor is tough, and unlike Aldridge, he’s not playing all that great right now. He did get rolling offensively a little bit last game, and I don’t him in a tournament on FD.

FD — $7,200— SF
DK — $7,800— SF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 30

Oklahoma City at Golden State – 09:00 PM

Oklahoma City Golden State
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 231 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 231
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 111.3 Team Proj. 119.8
Team Pace 99.16 Team Pace 101.93
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Dion Waiters Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 5 16 15 17 Opp. Season 19 22 8 3 5
Opp. Last 7 29 5 17 26 5 Opp. Season 16 24 26 4 3

Oklahoma City

Record: 38-13 — Road: 14-8 — Last 10: 9-1

This is the game of the night as we’ll see two elite teams and the top two offenses in the NBA. Vegas has this one installed with a silly 230 point total so ownership is sure to be very high, but the pace in this game is very tough to fade, particularly in cash games. These two teams haven’t played this year, but last year the matchups were as follows:

1. Golden State 91, Oklahoma City 86 (Durant and Westbrook DNP)
2. Golden State 114, Oklahoma City 109
3. Golden State 117, Oklahoma City 91
4. Oklahoma City 127, Golden State 115

Andre Roberson (O)

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

Westbrook has put up three straight triple doubles and draws the top matchup for the Thunder as Stephen Curry is not an elite defender. A super athletic PG like John Wall just torched Golden State, which bodes for well for a guy like Westbrook. Against GS last year, he averaged 24 PPG, 8.3 rebounds and 9.7 assists.

FD — $11,000— PG
DK — $11,200— PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 49.1

Kevin Durant

If choosing between Durant and Westbrook, I’d give the slight edge to Westbrook as he racks up more peripheral stats and the Warriors do have lots of quality wing defenders they can throw at Durant. However, in a game with a 230 point total and his ability to score the ball, he’s the elite option at SF.

FD — $10,700— SF
DK — $10,500— SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 38.6
FP/Game — Season: 45

Secondary Plays

Dion Waiters

The one problem with this game is that the elite players of both teams eat up tons of usage so there’s not much left for the secondary players. Waiters doesn’t offer much upside as he’s scoring dependent, but with Roberson out, he’s been playing 36 MPG, and should see extra shots due to the elite pace.

FD — $4,000— SG
DK — $4,500— SG
Min/Game —Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 17

Serge Ibaka

I’m not a fan of Ibaka as he’s scoring and block reliant, and will also draw a tough matchup with Draymond Green. However, he does occasionally flash 35 to 40 fantasy point upside, and this is the game to target on the night. He averaged 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocks against the Warriors last year.

FD — $5,900— PF
DK — $5,700— PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 26

Golden State

Record: 45-4 — Home: 22-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors check in with a team total approaching 120 points and this one is expected to remain competitive so their starters should be on the floor for the 4th quarter. The one worry is that the Warriors do Warrior things and hammer the Thunder, like they did the Spurs. Even in that scenario, one of Steph or Klay would likely have gone for a huge outing. If you see the game playing out like that, I think grabbing a Warrior or two but fading OKC is an interesting tournament option.

Festus Ezeli (O)
James Michael McAdoo (O)

With Ezeli ruled out, Andrew Bogut could play 20 minutes or so, and I would expect to see plenty of the Warriors small ball lineup with Draymond at the five.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

The Westbrook/Curry PG combo is sure to be popular, and we should see both guys really go at each other tonight. Neither has been very good defensively this season and as we saw last game, Curry thrives in these up and down games. It is worth noting, he was just average against the Thunder last year with 21.8 PPG, 6.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists. Given the pace of this game, I’m not putting too much stock in those numbers.

FD — $10,800— PG
DK — $10,800— PG
Min/Game —Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 47.1

Klay Thompson

The Warriors have a team total of 120 points, and both Klay and Curry draw plus matchups so I’d be looking to get plenty of exposure to them both. Klay can run hot and cold, as he doesn’t rack up much peripheral stats, but when he gets hot he brings enormous upside. Dion Waiters is not a good defender so this is certainly a game where he can get cooking. He averaged 22.5, 4.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists against the Thunder last year, but Waiters is a defensive down grade from what OKC had last year.

FD — $7,100— SG
DK — $— SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.9

Draymond Green

We could see multiple triple doubles in this one as Draymond Green has consecutive triple doubles so Green and Westbrook both definitely have triple double upside in a fast paced game like this one. In terms of DVP, this isn’t a great matchup for Draymond. However, his ability to rack up peripheral stats,combined with the elite pace of this game, makes him an elite PF option tonight.

FD — $9,200— PF
DK — $9,100— PF
Min/Game —Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 39.5

Secondary Plays

Given the pace of this game, you can take a look at Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut or Andre Iguodala. However, the Warriors big three eat up so much usage that there’s not much left. All are cheap and value options due to the insane total in this one. Of the three, I’d say Bogut has the most upside as he does have 30 fantasy point upside when the minutes are there. He also is probably the riskiest as his minutes are the least secure of the trio.

Utah at Phoenix – 09:00 PM

Utah Phoenix
utahnba Vegas Total 190 phoenixnba Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 92.0
Team Pace 93.02 Team Pace 100.12
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Raulzinho Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Archie Goodwin Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 29 28 29 13 6 Opp. Season 8 2 5 1 2
Opp. Last 7 14 15 24 7 13 Opp. Season 3 6 5 1 2

Utah

Record: 24-25 — Road: 7-15 — Last 10: 7-3

Trey Burke (O)

I expected the Jazz to have a higher team total due to the poor Phoenix defense but Vegas seems to be telling us the Jazz will control the pace in this one. The Jazz will be without Trey Burke in this so Neto should get more minutes, but his usage is very low. Burke’s absence should mean that Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward see the ball in their hands more.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

The blowout factor worries me a little bit, but this game is being played in Phoenix which helps. Favors is rounding back into form following injury and his production is definitely on the upswing. He’s averaging 40 FD PPG over his last two games and I like this matchup against what has become a very bad Phoenix defense.

FD — $7,300— PF
DK — $7,000— PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.4

Rodney Hood

Outside of a bad game against Denver, he’s been pretty reliable over the past few weeks, and is playing big minutes recently. He played 41 minutes last night, and the Suns perimeter defense has been very poor as they’re without Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.

FD — $5,600— SG
DK — $5,900— SG
Min/Game —Season: 31 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 22.6

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

I’m giving the edge to Favors as I think he has a little more upside, but Gobert’s price is also very reasonable around the industry. This sets up as a nice spot for Utah, and while the matchup isn’t great in term so DVP, Gobert’s price is reasonable and he should be low owned.

FD — $7,100— C
DK — $6,700— C
Min/Game —Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.5

Gordon Hayward

I like this matchup for Hayward quite a bit as he’s really taken on big usage and minutes. My main concern with him is his price tag has really spiked and the Jazz big men are starting to get healthy, which takes away some usage.

FD — $8,100— SF
DK — $7,400— SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 37.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.8

Phoenix

Record: 14-37 — Home: 10-15 — Last 10: 1-9

Brandon Knight (O)
T. J. Warren (O)
Eric Bledsoe (O)

The Suns have been one of the top value teams to target recently, but this is one of their tougher matchups against an elite Utah defense.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Markieff Morris

I hate the matchup and the Suns have a team total of just 92 points so I don’t love this spot and probably wouldn’t touch him on DK. However, the Jazz are very big on the interior so his minutes should be secure and he’s picked up extra minutes and shot attempts with Earl Watson as head coach. Given his reduced price point on FD, all he need is 25 FD points and his increased volume could carry him.

FD — $5,200— PF
DK — $6,100— PF
Min/Game —Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.2

Devin Booker

He’s like Markieff in that I wouldn’t pay his price on DK due to the tough matchup. However, he’s still in play on FD. The matchup is very tough and limits his upside, but he’s averaging 14 FGA and 36 MPG over his past five games so the usage is there.

FD — $5,400— SG
DK — $6,000— SG
Min/Game —Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 15.1

P. J. Tucker

I wouldn’t go overboard due to the Suns very low total, but there is plenty of shots and minutes to go around in Phoenix. Tucker has thrown up two duds, which is certainly possible against an elite Utah defense, but he’s otherwise been rock solid in his previous ten games.

FD — $5,000— SF
DK — $5,500— SF
Min/Game —Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 18.5

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)