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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, May 6th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-07 05:19:30

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz – Saturday 8:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Utah Jazz
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 208.0 utahnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 101.5
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Joe Ingles Joe Johnson Gordon Hayward Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.54 0.04 -1.25 0.13 6.03 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61

Golden State Warriors

Draymond Green has been the Warriors’ best player this postseason. He’s a bit banged up after tweaking his knee in Game 2 but he’s considered probable and fully expected to play tonight. After six games in the playoffs, Green is averaging 15.5 points, 8.8 boards, 7.0 assists, 2.2 steals, and 3.0 blocks. The most notable differences from the regular season are in his points and blocks; improvements in the categories have allowed him to produce 1.3 FD ppm, an increase of 0.23. His per-minute pace is third on the team behind only Stephen Curry and JaVale McGee (both averaging 1.33). The tough Jazz matchup hasn’t slowed him down too much; he’s still delivering 1.26 FD ppm and his usage is up 4.9% over his regular season rate to 21.5%. However, his peripherals are down a touch – 7.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks, although he’s stealing 3.0 per game – while he’s dropping 19 points a game. With Kevin Durant a full participant in this series, he’s cut into Green’s peripherals; he’s leading the team with 8.0 boards and he’s contributing 6.0 assists (they’re tied with Curry for the team-high). There’s no question Green can keep delivering across the board, providing him a safe floor, but we have to wonder about his scoring pace. He’s currently on fire from three, converting 54.5% of his three-pointers over the first six games of the postseason. There can be two trains of thought on this: one, he’s hot right now, ride it; or two, he’s due for some negative regression. On the positive side, he’s averaged 11.3 FGAs over the past three games, which is 2.7 above his normal rate.

Green ended up launching 13 times in Game 2, which was the exact same number as Durant and Klay Thompson. Durant turned it up a bit in the fourth quarter, scoring 16.9 of his 51.7 FD points in the final eight minutes (11 points, two rebounds, one assist, and one block). With that boost, he finished with a solid line: 25 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. It was his best game since the first one against Portland and he’s now leading the squad in usage in this series (27.7%) – it looks like his calf injury is all healed up. Thompson also had a good day with peripheral stats, accumulating six rebounds and six assists. He can deliver those performances from time to time, but he’s only had more than two rebounds once and hadn’t topped two assists at all this postseason prior to Thursday.

With Durant’s usage rising, Curry’s has dropped to 26.0% against the Jazz, but he led the team in minutes (38) and was second in points (23) after going 5-of-8 from deep. It seems like the ankle injury that limited him on Tuesday isn’t a concern. As long as Durant is healthy, his fantasy ceiling will be capped. His price on FanDuel ($10,000) seems too high, but Kyrie Irving has seen limited minutes due to game flow and Kyle Lowry is considered doubtful. He’s $1,500 cheaper on DraftKings, which makes him very interesting.

Golden State employed a tight rotation in Game 2 with the four players mentioned above earning 36+ minutes and Andre Iguodala receiving 34 while the next closest guys were Shaun Livingston and David West at 15. They loved running Green as a stretch five in this one and it appears they’ll lean on this approach if it’s competitive tonight. Iggy had a nice game with ten points, five boards, and four assists. It’s only the second time he’s topped six points in the playoffs, but he’s still averaging 0.74 FD ppm. Although he’s not going to have too much upside beyond his Game 2 performance, he should keep earning a solid workload in close games. West has been a per-minute beast against the Jazz, averaging 1.29 FD ppm. He’ll need to keep pushing that rate to the max to have value in fantasy. Now that we have a four-game slate on DK, there isn’t much need to take a risk on him given his limited upside. For some reason, FD is doing a two-gamer, which keeps him in tournament consideration.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,000 $8,500 1.25 33.4 -0.4 41.6 3.8 31.3% 2.9% 1 -1.54
Klay Thompson $7,100 $5,900 0.91 34.0 -0.5 30.9 -8.0 24.6% -1.3% 2 0.04
Kevin Durant $9,600 $8,700 1.36 33.4 -4.3 45.5 -12.6 28.0% 0.0% 1 -1.25
Draymond Green $8,800 $8,200 1.06 32.5 2.5 34.6 11.1 19.3% -1.1% 1 0.13
Zaza Pachulia $3,900 $2,500 0.96 18.1 -3.6 17.4 -3.8 15.7% 4.5% 3 6.03
Andre Iguodala $5,100 $4,300 0.75 26.3 2.4 19.7 1.5 13.2% 0.4% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, David West (FD)

Utah Jazz

Utah is headed home as 5.0-point dogs. Their home crowd has been strong this postseason so perhaps it can fuel them to a victory or at least help them keep it close. They may be without George Hill once again as he continues to nurse a toe injury; he’s considered questionable as of this writing. Shelvin Mack stepped up in his place and delivered a great fantasy value (24.6 FD points). Despite running with the first unit, he posted a usage rate of 23.8%, an increase of 2.9% above his season average. Mack seems to like playing the Warriors, he’s now averaging 0.79 FD ppm in 142 minutes against them this season.

Mack was one of three players with double-digit points, the other two being Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert. As expected, Hayward was big on offense, going 11-for-21 from the field on his way to 33 points. He’s taken 20+ FGAs in three of the past four games and he’s looking like a great target, especially if Hill is out. Including the playoffs, Hayward experienced a 2.0% bump in usage to 31.5% and he’s produced an extra 0.06 FD ppm (1.06 total) when Hill is off and Mack is on the court.

Gobert had his first double-double since Game 4 against the Clippers; he pulled down 16 rebounds and scored 16 points. He’s now hauled in 16 or more rebounds in four of five meetings with the Warriors and he should continue to take advantage of their small lineup. He played 37 minutes on Thursday, the most he’s received this postseason, and he should keep pushing it now that it looks like injury concerns are behind him. He’s clearly the top center on FanDuel, but he costs a pretty penny. Over on DK, he provides a $500 savings off Draymond Green and he offers a higher projection in our model.

Although Mack started, Rodney Hood picked up 35 minutes off the bench with Hill out. He was essentially in a time share with Joe Ingles, who ended up playing just 21 minutes. Hood replaced him early in the first quarter after a pair of turnovers and came in within two minutes in the third. But man, talk about a dude who is cold. He’s now 1-for-18 from three in the past four games. Coach Quin Snyder seems to like him a lot though and must believe Hood can turn it around. While it doesn’t seem safe to bank on Hood for 35 minutes, he seems like a good bet to push towards 30 and he could play more if he shoots better. On the bright side, he’s attempted at least ten shots in five of the six games he’s received at least 23 minutes, so he should keep firing while he’s out there. Ingles has played 23 or fewer minutes in both games against the Warriors; it appears Snyder doesn’t like how he matches up with the Warriors. Against the Clippers, he wanted to emphasize defense, but against Golden State, he needs to try to keep up with their offense. That means Ingles isn’t looking like a strong option unless we see Snyder alter his approach.

Given Joe Johnson’s offensive prowess, he should have a secure workload. He’s now in the starting five and he received 30 minutes on Thursday. He wasn’t able to do much with them, as he went 3-for-8 and submitted blanks across the rest of the box score outside of three assists and a turnover. His usage is down in this series to 19.4% and it’s possible he has a smaller offensive role to fill with Hood getting more action, Mack more than willing to shoot (11 FGAs in Game 2), Hayward taking over in general and Gobert back to full strength. Simply put, he appears to be overpriced on FD and a weaker choice than similarly priced options on DK. He naturally has some upside but it doesn’t seem like the right spot for him; he’s a high-risk, medium-reward tournament option.

Dante Exum is cheap enough to warrant tournament consideration on FanDuel’s two-game slate ($1,600). He’s not a strong target, but he was a part of the rotation, earning 14 minutes in Game 2. He ended up returning 11.2 FD points. He’s only played 49.6 minutes this postseason, nevertheless, he’s returned 0.76 FD ppm on a 13.8% usage rate; while that represents a decline of 4.7% in usage, it’s an increase of 0.11 FD ppm. He won’t be a major factor, but he could pick up extra minutes in a blowout scenario. He’s another high-risk option without a ton of upside, but he’s dirt cheap.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Shelvin Mack $2,700 $4,200 0.68 21.9 -11.4 15.0 -8.5 21.2% -1.4% 3 0.24
Joe Ingles $4,700 $4,200 0.68 24.1 8.2 16.3 3.6 15.4% -3.6% 14 -0.91
Joe Johnson $5,600 $4,800 0.68 23.6 7.1 16.1 9.0 18.7% 3.7% 5 1.35
Gordon Hayward $8,300 $7,900 1.00 34.5 1.7 34.3 1.1 27.6% -0.6% 21 5.08
Rudy Gobert $9,400 $7,700 1.05 33.9 -11.0 35.8 -11.8 16.2% 1.3% 12 3.61
Derrick Favors $5,500 $4,000 0.87 23.7 0.8 20.7 0.4 19.8% -4.1% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Shelvin Mack (based on pts/$)

Secondary Plays – Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – Sunday 3:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Toronto Raptors
clevelandnba Vegas Total 214.0 torontonba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Team Total 110.0 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10 Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17
DRPM 0.62 -2.21 -1.29 0.84 0.71 DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95

Cleveland Cavaliers

This series has gotten out of hand. With the Cavs up 3-0, there’s little hope left for the Raptors. Making the situation worse for Toronto, Kyle Lowry considers himself “probably doubtful.” The Raptors have no answer for LeBron and even if they get Lowry back, it seems like he’ll be hobbled up and unable to fully contribute on defense. We could be in for another blowout, which means Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love could miss their third-straight fourth quarter. Both guys played 32 minutes prior to the fourth, so if it stays competitive, they could push into the high 30s. However, with the way James has been playing, the Cavs may just run away with this one.

LeBron has now dropped 32 or more points in all but one game this postseason and he’s averaging 36.3 on the Raptors with a shooting percentage of 60.4% from the floor and 53.3% from three. He’s been able to get to the line for 12.3 FTAs per game and he got there 21 and 16 times in the past two meetings. Fortunately, James has been playing a ton of minutes (39.4) regardless of game flow and he seems like the only one with a secure workload on the team. Tristan Thompson has played 38 minutes in two games this series though and he’s been cleaning up on the glass, posting a rebounding rate of 20.0%, an increase of 3.1% above his regular season numbers. For what it’s worth, Love has been even better with a 20.9% rebounding rate, but again, he’s at risk of missing an entire quarter. He started out hot in the first quarter (as he’s done many times), scoring ten points, but was a little quiet the rest of the way, only adding six more. He’s still a distant third option on offense that needs to get hot to earn more opportunities and play a full complement of minutes to be a great fantasy asset at his current salary, although he has a more reasonable price of $7,100 on DK.

Naturally, Irving’s assists dropped to four after he posted a 50.8% assist rate in the first two games. On top of that, he was cold from the field, scoring 16 points on 21 shots. On the bright side, he took 21 shots. As a team, Cleveland only accumulated 15 assists after averaging 27.0 through the first two games. We can probably expect them to land somewhere in the middle tonight, and we should see a better performance from Kyrie, especially if Lowry is ruled out, even if Irving plays limited minutes. He’s probably best for tournaments due to the blowout factor though.

J.R. Smith has been a solid defender this series, but he dipped out midway through the third after picking up his fifth foul and never returned. Shumpert finished with more minutes (26 to 17) and DK points (14 to 12.75). If Smith stays out of foul trouble, he’ll receive more time than Shumpert. Still, he’s being utilized as a defender more than he is on offense, so he won’t be a great fantasy target.

Kyle Korver and Deron Williams picked up extra time due to game flow and they could do the same again tonight. Korver caught fire towards the end of the game, scoring 11 points in the final 14 minutes. Williams was very quiet once again, scoring four and contributing three assists. Both guys are tournament dart throws and they’ll need game flow to work in their favor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,100 $8,300 1.09 35.1 -1.3 38.2 -1.8 32.0% 3.7% 11 0.62
J.R. Smith $3,500 $3,500 0.56 29.0 -0.8 16.2 -4.9 14.4% -4.8% 3 -2.21
LeBron James $12,800 $12,200 1.30 37.8 4.3 49.3 11.9 32.9% 1.4% 3 -1.29
Kevin Love $7,500 $7,100 1.14 31.4 -0.6 35.8 -8.0 25.2% -4.2% 5 0.84
Tristan Thompson $5,700 $5,500 0.77 30.0 2.0 23.0 2.0 11.0% 0.1% 10 0.71
Kyle Korver $2,900 $2,900 0.63 26.2 -8.5 16.5 -7.0 15.1% -1.9% 3 N/A
Iman Shumpert $3,600 $3,400 0.57 25.5 -6.5 14.5 -4.0 14.0% -2.5% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors employed a tight rotation in Game 3, giving their starters 33+ minutes and everyone else 22 or fewer. Cory Joseph joined the starting five as Kyle Lowry was injured. As did Jonas Valanciunas after his great offensive performance in Game 2; he replaced Patrick Patterson. It looks like they’ll roll with the same lineup on Sunday as Lowry considers himself doubtful.

Despite going 2-of-12 from the field, Joseph finished with 20.6 FD points. Most importantly, he played 33 minutes. He’s now topped 20 FD points in 13 of 14 games he’s played at least 32 minutes. If he starts, he’ll be a solid value play once again. JV would be a nice option as well, he’s been a scoring machine the past two outings and he finally earned a healthy number of minutes last time out (33). Over the past two games, he’s a perfect 12-for-12 from within eight feet of the hoop. He hasn’t been spectacular on the glass as he’s averaged 6.3 rebounds per game in this series. As a team, the Raptors have been bullied by James, Thompson, and Love and they’ve been out-rebounded 135-105 in total. Valanciunas should be able to do better and if he puts together a complete game while getting a similar workload, he could have some massive upside on his salary.

Same goes for Serge Ibaka, who’s averaging 4.3 rebounds against the Cavs after pulling down 8.3 in the first round. He’s increased his scoring though, dropping 14.3 a game, a 1.5-point increase from the opening series and right in line with his normal production. He played 35 minutes as coach Dwane Casey tightened up his rotations. Hopefully, they’ll follow a similar approach again. He remains second on the team in usage with a 24.0% rate this postseason.

DeMar DeRozan and Norman Powell were first and second in minutes with 40 and 36, respectively. If Lowry is out, expect them to play as long as they can tonight as they face elimination. With the home crowd behind him, DDR was super efficient, scoring 37 points on 23 shots. Although he’s been an inconsistent scorer in the playoffs, there’s little doubt he’ll be the primary scoring option tonight, especially if Lowry misses this one. Powell was second on the team with 19 shots, he’ll also benefit from Lowry’s absence. He wasn’t as efficient, only scoring 3 points with those attempts, but he should be better and would present a nice value in the same scenario. When Lowry has been off the court this postseason, Powell has experienced a massive 7.3% bump in usage to 30.2% and he’s returned 0.91 FD ppm.

If interested in some dart throw options on the two-game slate over at FanDuel, Toronto offers some not-so-appealing ones in Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker, and Delon Wright. As mentioned, they all played 20 or fewer minutes and Wright was only out there for 12. With Lowry off the floor, Patterson has produced an abysmal 0.26 FD ppm this postseason while Tucker has averaged a pace of 0.57. At some point, Casey had to stop experimenting with his rotations and if Game 3 is any indication, he’s going to focus on the starters in this elimination game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,400 $7,300 1.05 37.4 0.2 39.4 -9.1 27.3% -6.0% 23 -2.16
DeMar DeRozan $7,900 $8,000 1.12 35.4 0.5 39.6 -8.0 34.2% -5.6% 29 -0.77
Norman Powell $4,300 $4,600 0.76 18.0 5.9 13.6 5.4 21.0% -1.7% 26 1.57
Serge Ibaka $6,100 $6,000 0.89 30.7 -1.1 27.2 1.2 20.1% 0.7% 9 1.93
Jonas Valanciunas $4,900 $4,400 1.00 25.8 -4.9 25.8 -7.0 18.7% 3.0% 17 0.95
P.J. Tucker $3,100 $3,600 0.65 27.6 -4.3 17.9 -6.2 12.0% -0.7% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Cory Joseph (FD), Serge Ibaka (FD), Norman Powell (FD), Jonas Valanciunas (FD)

Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph (DK), Serge Ibaka (DK), Norman Powell (DK), Jonas Valanciunas (DK)

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – Sunday 6:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
bostonnba Vegas Total 216.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Gerald Green Marcus Smart Al Horford Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 -1.56 0.45 1.59

Boston Celtics

There isn’t a whole lot to take away from Game 3. It was an atrocious game for Boston and it felt like it was over after the Wizards went on a 22-0 run in the first quarter. Not a single player reached the 30-minute mark for the Celtics with the starters getting pulled in the third quarter. Thomas led the way with 29. He started out the game by scoring zero points, giving up two turnovers, and committing a foul within the first six minutes. It’s pretty safe to say he’ll do better tonight. Expect him to come out firing and get back into his form from the first two meetings. Boston needs to rely on him as their primary scorer if they want to win and he’ll most likely answer the call. With Stephen Curry $500 cheaper on DK, Thomas could potentially come with lower ownership, making him an interesting target for tournaments.

Like Thomas, who had eight FGAs, Avery Bradley, Al Horford, and Gerald Green all took the same number of shots. Under normal circumstances, we can expect Bradley to play a ton of minutes and Horford to be close behind. In the four games prior to this, Horford had turned in 1.15 DK ppm, an increase of 0.09 from the regular season. He was able to improve his production through a boost in his peripherals. In the opening series he posted an assist rate of 31.5% and rebounding rate of 14.2%, those numbers have dropped a touch against the Wizards to 25.5% and 13.5%, respectively, but they’re still better than his regular season numbers. Bradley hadn’t been quite as good as Horford, although he turned in 0.94 DK ppm on a 23.2% usage rate across the four games leading up to Game 3. Most notably, he picked up his scoring, averaging 19.8 points in that stretch. He should make a larger impact on offense this time out and as mentioned, he could lead the team in minutes. As for Green, he’s a dart throw option. He can come in hot and earn some extra time, or more likely, he won’t play a whole lot of minutes – nine of his 26 minutes came in garbage time on Thursday.

Coach Brad Stevens clearly prefers Marcus Smart on the floor with the rest of the starters and he has a safe workload. Like everyone else, he had a poor showing, but he took nine total field goals and five free throws, both positive signs. So far in the playoffs, he’s provided a nice floor through peripherals but struggled to be a factor in the points department. He’s more of a tournament option, but if he remains active on the offensive end, he can deliver a nice return on his salary.

Jae Crowder led the team with 29.25 DK points in Game 3; he’s now posted at least 12 points, five rebounds, and one steal in four consecutive games. Not only is he consistent in those areas, but he pushed for 35 and 41 minutes in the first two games of the second round. It doesn’t seem like he’ll offer massive upside, but he should come with relatively low ownership given the top options above him on DraftKings and the value targets beneath him (in terms of price).

Kelly Olynyk and Terry Rozier are a couple more tournament dart throws on this team. They each played 12 or fewer minutes in Game 3 due to game flow – and in Olynyk’s case, possibly due to his altercation with Oubre. Olynyk has returned 0.97 DK ppm this postseason with a 20.7% usage rate, but he may not receive enough time to be valuable. Rozier had found himself receiving 15 and 25 minutes in the first two games, but he wasn’t very active in the rotation prior to the game getting out of hand and his eventual ejection. He should push towards 15 again tonight, but it’s hard to say exactly what Stevens will do with him; he’s far from safe and he may simply cost too much to be worth the gamble at $3,700 even if he’s producing 0.85 DK ppm.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,000 1.19 33.8 1.8 40.4 -1.9 34.9% -2.4% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $5,800 0.84 33.4 2.0 28.1 -1.9 21.5% -2.1% 16 -0.94
Gerald Green $3,100 0.78 11.4 6.0 8.9 1.6 21.6% -3.9% 17 0.03
Marcus Smart $5,500 0.80 30.4 0.1 24.2 -0.5 20.7% -2.8% 22 1.54
Al Horford $7,500 1.00 32.3 1.9 32.2 4.7 21.6% -3.1% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $5,500 0.80 30.4 0.1 24.2 -0.5 20.7% -2.8% N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,000 0.90 20.5 -2.0 18.5 -1.8 19.5% 0.2% N/A
Terry Rozier $3,700 0.74 17.1 0.0 12.7 1.4 18.2% -3.1% N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart

Washington Wizards

The Wizards picked up the first game at home against the Celtics in part due to Otto Porter’s stellar first half. He posted 15 points, five rebounds, an assist, and two steals in the first 24 minutes. Now that Kelly Oubre has been suspended for his scuffle with Olynyk, he could pick up a bunch of time on the court again Sunday. He led the team on Thursday with 38. His lone backup,Bojan Bogdanovic, should be in line for a big workload as well. Instead of coming in for Porter, he was replacing Markieff Morris in Game 3 and ended with 29 minutes. That seems to be Scott Brooks’ answer to Boston’s small lineups as he didn’t put Jason Smith in until the game was well in hand. In Game 4, Bojan will likely come in for both Porter and Morris, although he may still primarily spell Morris. He was hot last time out, going 4-for-7 from deep on his way to 19 points. He also made it a double-double with ten rebounds. While we can’t expect the same type of performance, he’s averaging a solid 0.88 DK ppm on a 19.5% usage rate this postseason; at $4,100, he presents another nice value option on this slate.

If it wasn’t for the blowout, Morris would have earned more than 19 minutes, but he didn’t need to come back after his break in the third. It is a bit concerning how willing Brooks was to replace him with Bojan though, indicating Morris may not be pushing for 40 minutes as he’s been doing this postseason when not in foul trouble. Fortunately, he’s featured on a slate with plenty of alternatives at power forward, so he can probably be faded in cash games. Considering his per-minute production (0.93 DK ppm in the postseason; 1.12 DK ppm in the series), he’s in play for tournaments and his ownership should be relatively low.

Marcin Gortat’s time as an elite center option may be coming to a close with Ian Mahinmi’s return. The backup center only logged ten minutes on Thursday, but he’s going to see an increase tonight and he’ll directly cut into Gortat’s workload. That means he’s unlikely to push into the high 30s tonight and he may be overpriced due to his recent production. Mahinmi has averaged 0.88 DK ppm this season and he’s probably looking at 12-15 minutes tonight. With his salary at $2,800, he may not have enough upside to be worth the risk.

Of course, the primary targets are John Wall and Bradley Beal. Wall has been a machine; he’s posted a 49.7% assist rate in this series and he’s averaging 23.7 FGAs per game. Although Marcus Smart has been defending him well, he’ll still have a ton of opportunities. He’s posted a 35.1% usage rate in this series and he’s in full takeover mode. That’s turned Beal into the second option and he’s only taking 15.3 shots a game against Boston. We can expect him to shoot better – he’s making 37.0% of his shots overall and 30.0% from three – and take more of them. Over the course of the year, he had some notable home splits, making 49.8% of his field goals in D.C. as opposed to 46.6% on the road and 44.2% of his threes whereas he converted 36.7% when he was away. Hopefully, he can get things going tonight and he could potentially sneak by with relatively low ownership considering recency bias and the alternatives at his position.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,400 1.24 36.4 2.7 45.3 6.1 34.8% 1.1% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,400 0.94 34.9 3.3 32.9 1.2 26.4% 0.7% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $6,100 0.82 32.6 0.0 26.7 -0.8 14.8% -1.4% 13 -1.56
Markieff Morris $5,600 0.83 31.2 -5.8 26.1 -3.5 19.8% 1.0% 24 0.45
Marcin Gortat $6,700 0.85 31.2 2.1 26.4 2.9 14.7% -1.7% 21 1.59
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,100 0.75 25.7 -5.0 19.3 -1.8 22.0% -3.7% N/A
Kelly Oubre $3,900 0.61 20.3 -2.8 12.4 0.4 13.9% 2.1% N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat, Bojan Bogdanovic

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets – Sunday 9:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Houston Rockets
sanantonionba Vegas Total 212.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 108.8
Pace +/- 3.8 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25 DRPM -1.07 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43

San Antonio Spurs

With Tony Parker done for the playoffs, coach Gregg Popovich turned to Dejounte Murray. The rookie received 14 minutes in his start and only turned in 5.5 DK points. He could’ve done a bit better had he not shot poorly, going 1-for-5 from the field. Still, he doesn’t appear to be a viable option at $3,000. When it came down to crunch time, the Spurs went with Patty Milles; Murray was on the bench for the final 19 minutes of the game. Mills’ price rose after his solid performance to $5,000. Although he’s not a tremendous value, the salary is still very reasonable for a guy who produced 27.75 DK points in 27 minutes. He also had a higher usage rate than all of the starters (27.4%) and he took 14 field goals – unfortunately, he only made 28.6% of them. Overall, he’s had a nice postseason run with a usage of 21.7% and pace of 0.74 DK ppm. It was great seeing him respond to the situation, particularly at the end of the game when he drained a clutch three.

The most notable performance came from LaMarcus Aldridge, who finally stepped up the way he’s supposed to in this series. He converted 12-of-20 field goals and scored 26 points. On top of that, he added seven boards, two assists, and four blocks. While Tony Parker’s impressive offensive performance may have been good for the team, it could’ve been directly affecting Aldridge’s production. There’s no questioning this is a great spot for Aldridge, let’s hope he doesn’t disappear in Game 4. Unlike previous playoff slates, there are a bunch of options at power forward, this makes him a more interesting tournament option due to expected ownership; his $6,200 salary would be a great value if he can maintain his 25.1% usage rate from Game 3.

As a result of Patty Mills and LaMarcus Aldridge having high usage rates, Kawhi Leonard’s dropped to 25.4% from his postseason average of 31.2%. That doesn’t mean he didn’t do Kawhi Leonard things. The team leader double-doubled for the second time this series with 26 points and ten rebounds. He also contributed seven assists. In this spot, it’s possible for him to continue his solid peripheral production as the Rockets give up a ton of rebounds and assists. Plus, he’ll be the primary offensive option, so the points should keep coming.

San Antonio finally got Danny Green to show up in this series, he’s scored 12 and 11 points the past two games after failing to top eight in five consecutive outings. He’s also added exactly three rebounds and three assists in each of the last two contests. Most importantly, he’s finally getting some consistent time on the court. He played 31 minutes in Game 2 and 35 in the follow-up. By no means is he safe and his price may be a touch too high at $4,200, but he’s back in GPP consideration with his current workload.

Pau Gasol was one rebound shy of a double-double in 31 minutes of action. He’s averaged 1.13 DK ppm over the past two games and he still has a very beatable price of $5,400. He’s a solid target in this matchup given his expected workload.

Outside of those guys, we have Manu Ginobili, Johnathon Simmons, and David Lee, who all played between 15-16 minutes. None of them are much more than tournament dart throws and they may not have the upside to be worth the risk at their salaries given their limited minutes. Ginobili didn’t pick up more time in Parker’s absence and Lee is firmly behind Gasol. Simmons is the cheapest of the trio at $3,100 and he’s produced at least 13.0 DK points in three straight games, but again, he isn’t a large enough part of the rotation to be viable on a four-game slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $5,000 0.79 21.9 -1.1 17.2 -3.9 21.8% -1.0% 25 1.89
Danny Green $4,200 0.62 26.6 -1.8 16.5 -2.9 13.8% 0.7% 26 -1.81
Kawhi Leonard $10,800 1.22 33.4 3.6 40.6 7.2 30.9% -3.0% 23 1.54
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,200 0.96 32.4 2.5 31.1 -5.8 24.0% -4.7% 27 -0.16
Pau Gasol $5,400 1.06 25.4 -1.6 26.9 -8.9 21.5% -5.3% 26 1.25
David Lee $3,300 0.92 18.7 2.5 17.2 -4.0 17.3% -6.3% N/A
Manu Ginobili $3,800 0.84 18.7 -3.4 15.7 -5.0 22.0% -2.7% N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Danny Green, Patty Mills

Houston Rockets

The Rockets continue to be an annoying team. They’re going to keep rolling with the hot hand approach. In Game 3, it was James Harden – who will always play a ton of minutes regardless, obviously – Trevor Ariza, and Clint Capela. Ariza has scored four or fewer points in four games this postseason but he’s also dropped 14 or more in three. Two of his better performances have come in this series. He was 5-of-12 from deep in Game 3 and finished with 34.25 DK points. He may have been helped by Lou Williams’ reduced workload in the first three games. Williams has dropped from 23 minutes to 18 to 11. Williams has posted two consecutive duds scoring four and zero points. Almost impressively, he’s tallied just one rebound and one steal total over the past two contests. The dude is a scorer, he should bounce back and he should earn more time on the court, but so far, the Rockets have opted to give extended runs to Patrick Beverley and Ryan Anderson. Williams is a high-risk high-reward GPP option as he could come in hot and push back towards 25-30 minutes. In the opening series, he scored over 20 points on three occasions. Plus, he’ll come with low ownership.

After scoring 14 and 18 points in the first two contests, Ryan Anderson predictably scored two in Game 3, going 0-for-4 from the field. Like Ariza, he’s painfully inconsistent and can only be considered for tournaments. Patrick Beverley is yet another guy who’s an unreliable scorer, but he’s taken 13 FGAs in consecutive games and his minutes have been ticking up due to solid defensive play. He can normally provide a decent floor through peripherals, but he needs points to provide a nice return on his salary. This isn’t a good spot for that as the Spurs have had his number all year. Through five meetings, he’s shooting 32.7% on them. He keeps trying to beat them inside, but he’s now 3-for-11 from within eight feet of the hoop in this series. It’s not terribly surprising as the Spurs have one of the best interior defenses; they’re second in the playoffs in opponent field goal percentage from the area (52.3%).

That’s certainly affected Harden as well, as 39.7% of his attempts have come from that range in the second round and he’s completed just 47.8%. During the year, he made 58.6% of his shots inside of eight feet. Last game, he got back up to his normal production inside (58.3%) and he also drained five threes on his way to 43 points. He was also aided by fouls; after taking 11 total free throw attempts in the first two games, he took 11 in Game 3 alone and made ten of them. He needs the Spurs to keep fouling to score a ton of points but they’ve been disciplined for the most part. His peripherals were down and that’s to be expected in this matchup. Still, he’s just $500 more than John Wall, so his salary is pretty friendly.

Another beneficiary of Houston’s hot hand approach is Clint Capela. His backup Nene went 0-for-5 and was limited to 16 minutes while Capela earned 32, his biggest workload of the postseason, and went 6-for-9. Capela finished with 12 points, 16 rebounds, and five blocks. As a team, Houston was out-rebounded soundly, 49-39, but Capela showed some fight with a 27.4% rebounding rate. While it seems unlikely he can maintain that against the Spurs, if he keeps shooting well he could keep earning extended runs. He’s returned 1.40 DK ppm in this series and 1.19 in the playoffs, so his $5,100 is definitely beatable.

Sixth man Eric Gordon seems to have a secure workload off the bench, he earned 33 on Thursday. Although he hasn’t many massive games, he’s been contributing across the box score in the postseason and he’s returned 0.78 DK ppm. He topped 32.5 DK points twice against OKC and if Williams doesn’t get more action, he could be pick up a larger role on offense.

Houston continued to operate with eight-man rotation in Game 3 and they’ll likely keep it that way in any game that stays close.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,000 0.82 30.7 -3.2 25.2 -1.2 16.3% 5.3% 8 -1.07
James Harden $10,900 1.48 36.4 -0.4 53.9 -6.3 38.6% 0.9% 12 2.10
Trevor Ariza $4,900 0.72 34.7 1.6 25.1 -7.3 14.4% -3.6% 2 0.85
Ryan Anderson $5,200 0.71 29.4 1.1 20.9 -2.0 17.2% -3.9% 2 1.25
Clint Capela $5,100 1.08 23.9 -0.9 25.9 -0.4 19.1% -3.1% 2 1.43
Eric Gordon $5,000 0.77 31.0 0.2 23.8 -0.8 22.0% -4.3% N/A
Lou Williams $5,000 1.03 24.6 1.6 25.4 -3.6 28.9% -4.6% N/A
Nene Hilario $3,900 0.97 17.9 2.6 17.3 3.5 19.3% -1.1% N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, Louis Williams, Eric Gordon

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).