NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 25th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2018-02-26 02:50:05

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets – 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		105.0					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		-0.9
Projected Starters	Ish Smith	Reggie Bullock	Stanley Johnson	Blake Griffin	Andre Drummond		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	11	26	15	16		DvP	10	8	29	17	7
DRPM Rat.	13	15	11	14	7		DRPM Rat.	15	23	8	26	5

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Reggie Jackson (Out)

We have a relatively ugly Sunday NBA slate today because of the way the games are split up. There is a stand alone very early start, there are two mid-afternoon games, and there are two evening games. FanDuel and DraftKings have put this very early game into its own slate under the new single game formats, while the afternoon and evening slates are split up into two game slates. These aren’t my favorite kind of days, but we have to play with the cards we are dealt!

The stand alone game features the Pistons and Hornets, two teams that play at a below average tempo. However, this game still has a decent Vegas total of 214 points. This will be a fun matchup of strong interior play, with the Pistons bringing their tandem of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond up against Dwight Howard and company. Drummond continues to smash despite Griffin’s acquisition, as the big man is currently riding a streak of 13 straight double-doubles. He is averaging 17.6 points and 18 rebounds per game in that stretch, numbers that are somehow better than his already strong season averages. Obviously, both Drummond and Griffin are in play on the single game slate. I will caution that Drummond does have the tougher matchup here, as Howard is a strong defender. Drummond has struggled in the two previous meetings between these teams, so he’s an interesting potential fade in tournament formats.

If you need a cheaper play from this game, there’s nothing wrong with targeting guards and wings from this Detroit squad. Though guys like Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson, and Ish Smith are nothing special, we at least know the minutes will be there. I’ll give a slight lean to Bullock because his minutes seem the safest, but Johnson has the best individual matchup. All three of these players have relatively limited ceilings, so don’t go nuts here.

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (6 of 10)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond, Reggie Bullock, Ish Smith (single game format only), Stanley Johnson (single game format only)

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

None

The Hornets are rolling now with three straight wins, and they have looked solid in both games since the All Star break. They still have an outside chance at a playoff spot in an underwhelming Eastern Conference, so look for them to continue to go all out to win games. Dwight Howard and Kemba Walker have been the key cogs of their success this season, and Howard has gotten the better of Andre Drummond in the two previous meetings this year. He has logged double-doubles in both games with 10/15 in the first game and 21/17 in the second meeting. Given that history and with the Hornets playing at home today, I prefer Howard between the two big men. Walker, as always, is a high upside play at home.

Finding a third option on this team is a bit of a chore, though Nicolas Batum has shown a few signs of life with some all-around lines in the last two contests. I don’t mind him as a risk/reward GPP play on the single game formats. The forward spots are a revolving door of playing time, but Frank Kaminsky carries the most potential as the team’s new sixth man. He has been playing better than the likes of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams of late, so he would be my final pick from this Charlotte squad if I had to add a fourth player.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (4 of 10)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (GPP), Frank Kaminsky

New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks – 3:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		222.5					Vegas Total		222.5
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		109.3					Implied Team Total		113.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.7					Pace Projection +/-		2.7
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	Emeka Okafor		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	6	1	8	26		DvP	21	26	20	21	14
DRPM Rat.	6	25	24	2	3		DRPM Rat.	24	2	28	2	15

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

None

This game begins the two game afternoon slate, and it should be a fun matchup between the Pelicans and Bucks. Obviously, each team has a top end stud that we could possibly pay up for this afternoon. Anthony Davis draws a solid matchup against a Bucks team that really struggles against solid big men — Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league in DvP against the center position. The Bucks also rank 26th in the league in team rebounding differential. That does not bode well in a matchup against Davis. While Davis hasn’t produced the consistently massive lines that many people expected without Cousins in the mix, this is a matchup that profiles as one of those potential blow-up spots. Davis is a very strong play in all formats on a two game slate.

If we take DeMarcus Cousins off the floor, CourtIQ tells us that both Davis and Jrue Holiday see usage increases of 5% to 6%, and they both score around 10 additional fantasy points per 36 minutes. Don’t sleep on Holiday as an elite play, as his role is now secure as the second scorer on this team. Rajon Rondo has seen his role go all over the place, and it’s very difficult to trust his minutes. I don’t love him against a team that can shut down guards fairly well. If I am playing one of these Pelicans guards, Holiday is the guy I want.

Nobody else has a ton of appeal here, but you could consider a guy like Nikola Mirotic or even Ian Clark in GPP formats. Clark played a ton of minutes and had the hot hand in the last game, but don’t bank on anything more than 24 minutes today. I guess the coaching staff likes Mirotic fitting in with the second unit with Emeka Okafor as the starter, but Mirotic should still play 32-35 minutes on a daily basis. Again, I don’t love the matchup, but there’s some upside at potentially low ownership (as low as we can get on a two game slate, anyhow).

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.3 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (9 of 10)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday

Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic, Ian Clark (GPP), Rajon Rondo

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Brogdon (Out)
Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Eric Bledsoe (Probable)

The Bucks are certainly a team that we can consider targeting heavily today. The Pelicans quietly rank inside the top ten in the NBA in pace, so this game should feature plenty of points. Milwaukee has the highest implied team total on the two game afternoon slate at a healthy 113 points. Obviously, the discussion here has to start with Giannis Antetokounmpo. His upside is as high as anyone else on the slate, and he often gets overlooked for the likes of other studs. On Friday, Giannis was just 6-12% owned depending on what site you were playing on. He will certainly be higher than that today on a two game slate, but he still might get ignored to some degree with both the aforementioned Davis and LeBron James on this slate. There’s triple-double upside in this matchup, as the Pelicans don’t have anyone to comfortably match up with the rising star.

Other opportunity remains in the backcourt with injuries to Brogdon and Dellavedova. Eric Bledsoe got banged up the other night but appears to be fine for today; keep an eye on that to make sure no additional news breaks prior to lineup lock. Both Bledsoe and Khris Middleton scored 21 points in a big overtime win over the Raptors the other night, and both are safe plays with some upside this afternoon.

Jabari Parker is a play you could potentially consider in GPP formats if you are feeling a little frisky. He remains on a minutes limit of about 20, but his price is dirt cheap in DFS, and he has shown well on a per-minute basis. He had eight points and seven rebounds the other night. If you need a punt play on a short slate, there are worse ideas out there. If you are looking for a safer option, John Henson still appears poised to have a 30+ minute role under a new head coach and is worth a look for stability.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.6 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 8.7 (1 of 10)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.2 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker (GPP), John Henson

San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers – 3:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		216.5					Vegas Total		216.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		105.8					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-2.7
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Projected Starters	George Hill	J.R. Smith	Cedi Osman	LeBron James	Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	29	25	28	18	23		DvP	2	3	4	1	9
DRPM Rat.	27	27	17	20	29		DRPM Rat.	1	1	1	17	5

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Danny Green (Probable)
Manu Ginobili (Questionable)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)

The headline game of the afternoon slate is the less appealing one from a DFS perspective, as the Spurs head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. San Antonio does benefit from taking on a Cleveland team that has been abysmal defensively this season, but the Cavs should be much improved in the second half after their trade deadline moves. Shipping Isaiah Thomas off to Los Angeles should definitely help that endeavor. The Spurs continue to play without Kawhi Leonard, but they do have Rudy Gay back in the mix. That muddies up the minute distributions on the wings, and it certainly will hurt Kyle Anderson going forward. For now, Anderson still has the upper hand for minutes, but don’t expect him to be logging 40 minutes anytime soon. I will avoid that whole mess today.

Both Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray started in the backcourt in the last game with Danny Green sidelined due to illness, but Green has been upgraded to probable for today’s game. That should send Mills back to the bench. Murray is your safe option from this group, though he no longer comes at a DFS discount. Green is a reasonabe value option, since there isn’t a ton of reliable value on a two game slate.

Pau Gasol is coming of a solid 12 point, 12 rebound performance the other night, but the concern with him is always related to his minutes. If he plays 30+ minutes, he could absolutely put up a big performance against a weak defense. Of course, LaMarcus Aldridge is by far the top play from this team. He carries plenty of usage and has averages of 23 points and eight rebounds for the season, and he poured in 30 points in the first meeting between these teams.

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 101.6 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (2 of 10)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.8 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol (GPP), Dejounte Murray, Danny Green (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Jordan Clarkson (Probable)
Kevin Love (Out)

Since their trade deadline moves, the Cavs seem to be playing a better brand of basketball. They have won five of their last six games, with three of those wins being in relatively convincing fashion. The primary question is what we should do with one LeBron James on a two game slate. I don’t have a great answer to that question. The Spurs remain a pesky defensive team that plays at a slow pace, so my natural tendency is to gravitate toward Anteokounmpo and/or Davis in the other game. However, it’s very risky to fade James completely on a two game slate. We all know that the upside is there. If I am building multiple GPP lineups, I will be heavier on the other two studs, but I will still have some exposure to LBJ.

Cleveland carries a lot more depth these days, so it’s difficult to peg how the minutes will shake out for the rest of the team. George Hill seems to be growing into his role as the starting point guard, and he is coming off a strong game against Memphis the other night. This is a very tough matchup, but I don’t mind Hill as a potential value. The rest of the squad is largely a crapshoot. Will J.R. Smith knock down some threes? Will Tristan Thompson grab enough rebounds to hit value? Will someone surprise off the bench? It’s a spot to avoid, if possible, against the Spurs. If I had to pick one player in a GPP, I’d opt for Larry Nance, who has some per minute upside and is also coming off a very good performance.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (7 of 10)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, George Hill

Secondary Plays – Larry Nance (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		104.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		2.2
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	9	25	2	11		DvP	11	19	16	16	12
DRPM Rat.	9	11	1	19	7		DRPM Rat.	1	24	1	23	2

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

None

We have quickly arrived at the two game “night” slate on this Sunday. However, it’s worth noting that the GPP contests are very large today despite the short slates, largely because football is no longer around. With the NASCAR race facing potential rain and golf wrapping up this afternoon, there’s not much else to enter today! The Sixers/Wizards tilt carries the lowest total of the day, but it’s still a respectable game with a total above 210. This isn’t the most favorable matchup for the Sixers, though. They are playing on the road against a team that is solid overall on the defensive end. I’ll be somewhat cautious with exposure to Philadelphia here.

The one spot where the Wizards have struggled this year has been against wing players who can score. The Sixers do have two of those players in J.J. Redick and Robert Covington. Both players have a tendency to go very hot and cold, so there is risk with both of them. However, I have a feeling that one of the two will be able to knock down some three pointers today. Fire up both of them as risk/reward tournament options tonight; I will likely be overweight on both in GPP formats.

While Joel Embiid is obviously a high upside option, I will be underweight on him here. It’s not that I don’t like Embiid, it’s that I simply prefer both centers in the other game, which should feature more fantasy goodness. Given Embiid’s hefty price tag, I am comfortable going underweight today. Dario Saric is a safe option at power forward if you need a mid-range play from this squad.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (10 of 10)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – J.J. Redick, Robert Covington (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid, Dario Saric

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Out)

I am not sure what cereal Tomas Satoransky has been eating since John Wall got injured, but I need to get myself some of that stuff. (No, I am not accusing Satoransky of doing anything wrong; it was just a phrase). In any case, the fill-in point guard has been playing admirably in Wall’s absence, but I can’t endorse paying a hefty $6,700 tag for him on FanDuel. He’s much more palatable at $5,700 on DraftKings and $10,900 on FantasyDraft. Play him on those sites.

Bradley Beal gets the reputation of having massive upside with Wall out of commission, but that hasn’t really materialized this year. CourtIQ tells us that Beal only sees about a 2% boost in usage and scores just two additional fantasy points per 36 minutes with Wall off the floor. Beal is fine, but he’s not an absolute must play in this spot. Perhaps part of the reason why Beal hasn’t thrived as much without Wall this year has been because Otto Porter seems to be emerging now. Porter is averaging a healthy 18 points and seven rebounds per game in the month of February, and he is a solid mid-range play here.

Marcin Gortat simply isn’t on my DFS radar any more, so if you want anyone else from this team, it’s Markieff Morris. He is nothing special, but he has been more consistent of late. If you need a mid-range play to get you around 25 fantasy points, fire him up. He’s better in cash games than tournaments.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (8 of 10)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.1 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tomas Satoransky (DK & FDRAFT), Otto Porter

Secondary Plays – Tomas Satoransky (FD), Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Denver Nuggets
			Vegas Total		228.0					Vegas Total		228.0
			Vegas Spread		-4.5					Vegas Spread		4.5
			Implied Team Total		116.3					Implied Team Total		111.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.5					Pace Projection +/-		1.0
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Will Barton	Wilson Chandler	Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	2	18	23	20		DvP	7	22	17	3	25
DRPM Rat.	28	5	22	18	9		DRPM Rat.	2	19	15	9	3

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Eric Gordon (Doubtful)

The final game of the day should definitely be the most fantasy-friendly contest of this Sunday slate. Houston and Denver both rank inside the top seven in the NBA in pace. They also both rank inside the top five in offensive efficiency. It’s no surprise that the game has a Vegas total in the mid-220’s, so fire this one up as the top game to target today. Let’s get this analysis started with Chris Paul, who seems like a great play at a suddenly affordable price. I know that James Harden is a drag on Paul’s numbers at times, but Paul still carries plenty of upside. I’ll take some shots on him in a game that should be played at a high pace, and my bold call is that Paul comes close to getting a triple-double today. He’s one of my favorite plays on the night slate. Of course, Harden is a strong play as well, but he will cost you a pretty penny.

It will be interesting to see how the minutes shake out at the forward spots. There are a lot of moving parts here. Eric Gordon is uncertain to play in this game. Trevor Ariza is back. What becomes of P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute now? Has anyone seen Ryan Anderson? This is generally a spot that is best left alone, if possible, though I would choose Ariza if forced to pick one play here.

Clint Capela is the other high upside option on this team. His presence will be needed on the interior against Jokic, and Capela is coming off a very strong double-double against Minnesota the other night. He does carry a bit of risk due to potential foul trouble and limited playing time, but the upside is absolutely there. Don’t be afraid to play him in tournaments.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 114.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (5 of 10)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela (Cash), Trevor Ariza

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

None

Hey, Mike Malone may finally have this thing figured out. Look what happens when you play a consistent, shorter rotation! The Nuggets are rolling with four straight wins, and their offense is firing on all cylinders. Just seven Denver players logged more than 20 minutes in the last game. Coincidence? I think not. Now, this isn’t to say that Malone won’t screw things up again going forward, but the trends are definitely positive.

This offense revolves around and through Nikola Jokic, who is thriving as an under-rated star in this league. His immense upside is always there, and he won’t suffer in a run-and-gun game against the Rockets. He has the upside to be the top overall play of the night, as he is coming off a 28 point, 11 rebound, 11 assist triple-double…against the Spurs. Yeah, this guy is good.

Nobody else on this team has the upside of Jokic, but there are plenty of solid plays. Jamal Murray almost got a triple-double of his own against the Spurs, while Gary Harris and Will Barton are solid options on the wings. The smaller lineup with Wilson Chandler at the four is working, and it shouldn’t be a problem to roll that lineup against Houston. All three should be looking at 33-36 minutes if this game stays close. Chandler is the lowest of the options for me given that his price has now come up quite a bit, but he’s a reasonable mid-range play. I plan to have plenty of exposure to both teams in this game.

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (3 of 10)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris

Secondary Plays – Wilson Chandler