NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 10th - Page Two
Milwaukee at New York – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – New York -5, 201 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Parker-Monroe
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Milwaukee | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.29 | Team Pace | 96.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Khris Middleton | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 13 | Opp. Season | 13 | 19 | 27 | 25 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 27 | 6 | Opp. Season | 3 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 30 | |
Milwaukee (Record: 15-23 Away: 5-16)
New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.3 (8 of 30)
The Knicks are an average defensive team this season. They are in the middle of the league in efficiency and slightly above average in points/fantasy points allowed per game. Milwaukee come into this game as slight underdogs, and have just a 98 point projected team total. News is not out yet about Bayless, but if he is unable to suit up again, it gives a big bump to MCW. Another guy worth a mention here is Jabari Parker who has seen his minutes enter the 30 mark in each of his last five games. While the production hasn’t been massive, the time on the court has been there and he is a decent punt at the power forward position.
Elite Plays
MCW has played great with the starting nod and has excelled in the absence of Bayless as well. He is getting all the minutes he can handle (41 and 37 in the last two) and has produced 50 and 43 points fantasy performances in his last two. He should be able to run circles around Calderon in this game and makes for the top mid-priced option at the point guard position.
FD — $7,100 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
Usage — Season: 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.8
Secondary Plays
While SF is usually a tough position to fill on FD, Middleton has been a great mid-priced choice for it lately. Position scarcity is not a problem today at the small forward position, but he is getting big time minutes and has produced with two 37+ fantasy point performances in a row. While most people will be on the higher priced options or the value in Memphis, Middleton can be a good tournament play.
FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SG
Usage — Season: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.3
New York (Record: 18-20 Home: 9-8)
Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.5 (23 of 30)
Milwaukee is a horrible defensive team this year and are ranked 20th or lower in each of the above defensive statistics. The Knicks are five point favorites tonight and have a projected team total of 103, which is 4.8 points higher than their season average. Arron Afflalo does get a mention here due to the fact that he does get 40 minutes per game recently, but has not done enough in those minutes and there are enough value players out there in better spots.
Elite Plays
His price right now reflects how inconsistent Porzingis has been. He is getting about 30 minutes per game now over his last five starts, but has switched between good performances and below average ones. He is coming off a monster 40+ point performance against a solid Spurs team and is in a decent spot as the Bucks are ranked 25th against the power forward position.
FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
Usage — Season: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.7
Melo is playing some very good basketball recently. He is coming of three consecutive 40+ point fantasy outings and now gets a great matchup against the Bucks who are ranked 25th in the league against the small forward position. He is a great play over at Draftkings where he is only $8,200.
FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $8,200 — SF
Usage — Season: 28.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.7
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte at Denver – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Lin-Lamb-Hairston-Williams-Hawes
- Denver Proj. Starters – Nelson-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Nurkic
| Charlotte | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.13 | Team Pace | 96.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Jeremy Lamb | P.J. Hairston | Marvin Williams | Spencer Hawes | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 30 | 12 | 21 | 18 | Opp. Season | 15 | 20 | 9 | 27 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Season | 17 | 24 | 13 | 30 | 7 | |
Charlotte (Record: 17-19 Away: 4-12)
Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.5 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.7 (24 of 30)
The Nuggets are a horrible defensive team this year. They are in the bottom third of the league in points allowed, fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency. Charlotte is filled with injuries as Jefferson continues to be out, Nicolas Batum is questionable and Jeremy Lamb came back in their game on Saturday.
Elite Plays
Kemba was shut down by Chris Paul on Saturday afternoon, which hopefully will give him some motivation to come out strong in this game. He has a great matchup and prior to Saturday’s game had not been under 33 fantasy points in his previous seven games. He is a secondary play today due to his price, but does show to have a very high ceiling and makes a good tournament play especially if Batum continues to be out.
FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $8,400 — PG
Usage — Season: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.5
Zeller continues to be a great source of value out of the power forward position, especially over at FD where they have not raised his price much. He is getting about 30 minutes per game over his last ten and has the ability to get about 30 fantasy points depending on the matchup. The matchup is ideal here against the Nuggets and he should easily reach value tonight.
FD — $4,900 — PF
DK — $5,400 — PF
Usage — Season: 14.5
Min/Game — Season: 24.4
Secondary Plays
The Jeremy’s are both in play today and get their own category. Lin is the safer option of the two and played 41 minutes on Saturday. Lamb is a bit riskier but does have a high ceiling for his price if he can get going early. Both of these guys would take a major bump if Batum plays tonight.
Denver (Record: 13-24 Home: 5-11)
Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.43 (19 of 30)
Charlotte is a mediocre defensive team this year and are slightly below the league average in fantasy points allowed as well as points allowed per game. The Nuggets are a bit muddled right now as they are appearing to get back Mudiay from injury, but Jameer Nelson is questionable. Also, Kenneth Faried is questionable as well. If he is to miss this game again, it gives a nice bump to Darrell Arthur who started in his place last game.
Elite Plays
Gallo has been playing huge minutes since returning from injury and seems to have taken the number one shooter spot on this Denver squad. He has shot the ball at least 13 times a game in his last four and has played at least 35 minutes as well. He is a great mid-priced option and gets a slight bump if Batum has to sit out again.
FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $7,100 — SF
Usage — Season: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.5
Secondary Plays
This is injury dependent as if Faried is out, it opens up some value with Darrell Arthur. With Mudiay back though, it clogs up the guard positions and takes value away from each player.
Oklahoma City at Portland – 09:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7.5, 214 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
| Oklahoma City | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.8 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.88 | Team Pace | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 17 | 8 | 20 | 26 | Opp. Season | 23 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 20 | 17 | 29 | 13 | Opp. Season | 22 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 21 | |
Oklahoma City (Record: 26-11 Away: 9-6)
Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.9 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.5 (17 of 30)
The Blazers are a below average defensive squad and are big 7.5 point underdogs to the Thunder tonight. This game features the highest over/under on the day at 214.5 and the Thunder have a highest projected team total of the day at 111.0, which is 2.1 points above their season average.
Elite Plays
This is a terrific matchup for Westbrook and he is the highest projected scoring player on the day. You will have to pay a big price for him, but there is enough value across the board that you could fit Westbrook and another superstar in your lineup if you want. The battle between him and Lillard should produce high fantasy performances out of both players tonight.
FD — $10,600 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
Usage — Season: 34.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.4
If you want to save salary at a point guard position filled with good plays, you can plug Durant into your lineup as well. While I do like Westbrook a bit more, Durant can go off at any time and the high scoring projections in this matchup should lead to a lot of points to go around for both stars.
FD — $10,100 — SF
DK — $10,100 — SF
Usage — Season: 27.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.9
Secondary Plays
None
Portland (Record: 15-24 Home: 8-9)
Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.4 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 7.1 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.4 (9 of 30)
The Thunder have been a slightly above average defensive team this year. While being the number one rebounding team in the league, they are also in the top ten in defensive efficiency and fantasy points per game. With that said, the Blazers feature a projected team total of 103, which is 2.6 points higher than their season average.
Elite Plays
This should be an extremely fun game to watch if it stays close, as it will feature two great offensive point guards that are not known as elite defenders. Lillard was launching everything in sight on Friday in when he had a 63-point fantasy performance. While that seems a bit unlikely, a 50 fantasy point game should be more reasonable and would allow Lillard to exceed his value today.
FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $8,800 — PG
Usage — Season: 31.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.7
Secondary Plays
None
Utah at L.A. Lakers – 09:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Utah Proj. Starters – Neto-Hood-Hayward-Lyles-Withey
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Williams-Brown-Nance-Hibbert
| Utah | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.53 | Team Pace | 98.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Raulzinho Neto | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Trey Lyles | Jeff Withey | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Louis Williams | Anthony Brown | Larry Nance | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 27 | Opp. Season | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 23 | Opp. Season | 2 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 26 | |
Utah (Record: 16-20 Away: 5-12)
Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.7 (30 of 30)
The Lakers are a terrible defensive squad this year and are ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed per game. This is great news for the Jazz as it will be a big Pace up game for them tonight. Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood are both currently uncertain to play tonight. If they both sit, it opens up a lot of minutes for Trey Burke to be another good value even though he didn’t do much last game. The other guy worth a slight mention is Trey Lyles who is getting minutes in the 30s right now due to the injuries.
Elite Plays
The small forward position seems to be fuller than usual on this slate as there are a number of solid plays at each price point. Hayward is a great mid-priced guy, especially if Hood and Favors are out again. He has one of the best matchups on the board and should easily hit value against the Lakers.
FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $7,300 — SF
Usage — Season: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.4
Secondary Plays
Check the status of both Hood and Favors. If they are both out, it gives a nice bump to Trey Lyles and Trey Burke tonight as well as Chris Johnson who received the start last night and played very well.
L.A. Lakers (Record: 8-30 Home: 4-11)
Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.6 (2 of 30)
While the Jazz get a great matchup, the Lakers have to face one of the more elite defensive squads in the league. The Jazz are ranked second in fantasy points allowed and ranked fifth in total points allowed per game this year. If you want to take a flyer on Louis Williams after his monster performance on Friday you can and it is a tournament worthy play as well as Kobe if he plays as he continues to launch a ton of shots. Other than them for a tournament play, it would be best to avoid this Lakers squad in this matchup.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None