NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 14th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2018-01-14 14:53:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat – 1:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		206.0					Vegas Total		206.0
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		102.0					Implied Team Total		104.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.6					Pace Projection +/-		-1.6
Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Malcolm Brogdon	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Derrick Jones	Josh Richardson	Kelly Olynyk	Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	8	12	12	5		DvP	11	7	1	5	23
DRPM Rat.	24	23	10	14	1		DRPM Rat.	13	28	28	3	2

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

None

Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have a relatively quiet NBA day on tap with just four games on this Sunday slate. There are two afternoon games and two evening games, so the sites have split the day into two small slates. The first of the two afternoon games features the Bucks traveling to Miami to take on the Heat. Milwaukee is coming off a disappointing home loss to Golden State where they scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter, and they check in as small underdogs in this game. The good news is that we have a defined rotation for the Bucks this year, as Jason Kidd has become a much more fantasy-friendly coach with his rotations. It all starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is becoming a top five player in this league. He is averaging a healthy double-double with 28.5 points and 10 rebounds per game on the year, but his numbers have dragged a bit in recent weeks. This isn’t the most favorable of matchups, but he is right there with the studs from the Pelicans as the top play on the two game afternoon slate.

Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton also check in as solid options given their stable minutes. Middleton was particularly bad against the Warriors on Friday, but he ranks 2nd in the league in minutes per game — only behind his aforementioned teammate. Malcolm Brogdon is also an appealing option. He has entered the starting lineup in place of Tony Snell, and he is playing heavy minutes as well. He is averaging a stash line of 15/5/4 over 35 minutes per game in seven January contests. Miami ranks inside the top ten in DvP against both guard spots, but I will certainly consider all these players on a short slate. John Henson is the only starter that doesn’t play healthy minutes, and I’m not really interested in him today. Milwaukee’s bench is one of the worst in the league, which is why the starters play such heavy minutes, and I can’t endorse anybody there.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 106.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (8 of 10)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, John Henson

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Dion Waiters (Out for season)
Justise Winslow (Probable)
Tyler Johnson (Probable)

Miami has been an appealing team to target in DFS for a few weeks because they have been ravaged by injuries. That is not the case now, though, as they are finally starting to get healthy. In fact, they will likely have everybody available today outside of Dion Waiters, who is going to miss the rest of the season. Milwaukee has been stout defensively against every position except centers, as they rank inside the top 11 in DvP against every other spot on the floor. Naturally, that makes Hassan Whiteside the strongest option here. He finally seems healthy after returning from injury, and his minutes are also trending back in the right direction. He is averaging 14 points and 13 rebounds per game over the last three contests, and he should abuse Henson and company on the interior here.

The rest of the roster carries some risk, as this is the lowest totaled game of the day, and most of the remaining players are over-priced based on their production while the team was ravaged by injuries. Goran Dragic was not playing more than 30 minutes per game until Tyler Johnson got hurt. The frontcourt is now jammed with bodies with Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk competing with the likes of James Johnson, Whiteside, and a few others for playing time. It’s difficult to pin down how this will play out, especially now that Justise Winslow is back in the mix. In a difficult matchup, this is a situation I would love to avoid completely. However, with just a two game slate, that’s difficult to do. Dragic and Josh Richardson are probably the safest plays outside of Whiteside, and I will prioritize them over some of the others. This is just a totally different situation in Miami compared to just a week ago. Tread carefully.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 101.0 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (3 of 10)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, James Johnson (GPP)

New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks – 3:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		218.0					Vegas Total		218.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.5					Vegas Spread		1.5
			Implied Team Total		109.8					Implied Team Total		108.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		2.2
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins		Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	16	13	2	4		DvP	17	26	26	26	18
DRPM Rat.	18	17	18	9	24		DRPM Rat.	24	7	29	2	7

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

None

This is the more attractive of the two afternoon games, as the Pelicans travel to face the Knicks. The interesting dynamic here is that the Pelicans are obviously strongest on the interior, but that is where the Knicks are strongest defensively. The primary weakness of the Knicks is against point guards, so Rajon Rondo is squarely in play today. He has very much been hit or miss this season, so I do prefer him in tournaments over cash games, but he is in play in all formats because of the short slate. The fact that his minutes are all over the place is a major concern, as he played just 20 minutes in the last game against Portland — and it was a close contest. Jrue Holiday is the safer play of the two, and he will often take over ball-handling duties. Holiday has also played at least 33 minutes in eight straight games. I prefer him if choosing between the two.

The two big men are the only other fantasy options on this team. Anthony Davis returned from the 854th injury of his career the other night, and he showed no ill effects as he posted 36 points and nine rebounds in over 40 minutes of court time. I prefer him to DeMarcus Cousins on DraftKings because you get a healthy $1,000+ discount, but I’ll give Cousins the edge on FanDuel. However, I also like the idea of potentially playing Davis over Cousins on FanDuel because it allows you to get Hassan Whiteside at your center spot, and I really like the Miami center today. This is largely splitting hairs, though, as these two are certainly the most likely players to lead the afternoon slate in fantasy production.

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (7 of 10)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Jrue Holiday

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

None

The key trend with today’s slate is that teams are starting to get healthy. That’s not exactly great news for our purposes, as it serves to muddy up rotations. Tim Hardaway Jr. is back for the Knicks, and he played 25 minutes off the bench in the last game against Minnesota. His return is bad news for the likes of Courtney Lee and definitely Lance Thomas. Hardaway is still available at a reasonable price, and it would not surprise me to see him play around 30 minutes today. This might be one of the last few chances to buy low, and I like the upside as well. There’s not a ton of reliable value on this short slate, so give Hardaway a look. Lee is also a reasonably-priced wing player, and he should still get his fair share of playing time.

The big wild card with this team is Enes Kanter, as you never know what he is going to get for minutes. However, his presence should be needed today against the size of the Pelicans, and Kanter is also coming off a solid double-double in the last game. I definitely prefer the likes of Cousins and Whiteside at center, but Kanter is certainly a live tournament option. Of course, I don’t mean to discount Kristaps Porzingis. He has admitted that he is tired, but the minutes are still there, and we know that he has upside. I prefer him in tournaments as opposed to cash games. I generally ignore the point guard mess on this team, but Jarrett Jack has the upper hand for minutes at this point and actually posted a triple-double earlier in the week. This game has a 218 total and a one point spread, so there is plenty of fantasy goodness to go around.

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 (1 of 10)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis (GPP), Courtney Lee (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Courtney Lee (GPP), Jarrett Jack, Enes Kanter (GPP)

Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Phoenix Suns
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		-4.0					Vegas Spread		4.0
			Implied Team Total		111.3					Implied Team Total		107.3
			Pace Projection +/-		3.4					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Tyler Ulis	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Dragan Bender	Tyson Chandler
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	28	29	17	30	15		DvP	14	10	4	16	30
DRPM Rat.	27	27	28	29	6		DRPM Rat.	21	1	29	15	29

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Out)
Domantas Sabonis (Questionable)

Indiana draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Suns here, and there are injury issues in the frontcourt. Myles Turner has already been ruled out, and now Domantas Sabonis is also questionable. If both players are out, Al Jefferson and T.J. Leaf would be looking at heavy minutes. If Sabonis is active, he is a very strong play on the two game evening slate. This is the biggest situation to monitor leading up to the late slate. Thaddeus Young is a safe, solid play in all formats in any case. While he is never a sexy DFS option, he’s looking at secure minutes and gets the benefit of the pace up nature of the game.

The Pacers have the highest implied team total of the day at 111 points, and Victor Oladipo is perhaps the strongest option on the board in the two late games. He hasn’t missed a beat in his return from injury, and his defense will be utilized against Devin Booker. If this game stays close, he should be looking at around 40 minutes. In a matchup against the Suns, I would expect a very strong all around line. Fire him up with confidence in all formats. You never know what you will get with Darren Collison, and he defers a lot with Oladipo on the floor, but I have to list him as a secondary option thanks to the matchup. If you want to take a risk/reward shot on the scoring upside of Bojan Bogdanovic, you can consider him, but be aware that the floor is low, and he does not add much besides the scoring. He is also coming off a total dud against Cleveland with just six points, one rebound, and three turnovers in almost 30 minutes. Like I said, he doesn’t add much outside of the scoring.

Lastly, don’t sleep on Lance Stephenson. He has still been playing healthy minutes off the bench even with Oladipo back, and this game might go small at times — especially if Indiana is missing Turner and Sabonis. Lance danced his way to a double-double against the Cavs the other night and has some upside at an affordable price point. As with the others, he benefits from a matchup against the Suns.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (2 of 10)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis (IF ACTIVE), Al Jefferson (IF SABONIS IS OUT), Thaddeus Young

Secondary Plays – Lance Stephenson, Darren Collison

Phoenix Suns

Notable Injuries

Marquese Chriss (Out)
Isaiah Canaan (Probable)

The big news here is that Marquese Chriss will miss another game due to injury, so Dragan Bender will presumably draw another start in the frontcourt for the Suns. He has played over 30 minutes and has posted decent numbers over each of the last two games, and his price hasn’t come up all that much yet. He remains one of the better value plays on the slate. Greg Monroe seems to have fallen out of the center rotation entirely, so we can generally expect Tyson Chandler and Alex Len to pick up most of the minutes at center. There is tons of risk here, but Chandler has posted six straight double figure rebounding games. He’s a reasonable secondary option, especially if we get confirmation that he will be starting again today. T.J. Warren is the safest option in this frontcourt, as he continues to be a steady force on an unpredictable team. His minutes are secure, and he continues to take a healthy dose of shot attempts even with Devin Booker back.

Speaking of Booker, Phoenix’s backcourt revolves in, around, and through Devin Booker. He is coming off a rock solid 27/6/9 line against the Rockets on Friday, and he should continue to lead the team in usage. CourtIQ tells us that he carries a healthy 32.5% usage rate on the year. While Booker has a tough draw against Victor Oladipo here, he is becoming a matchup-proof fantasy option. I can’t really get behind anyone else in the backcourt. Tyler Ulis is a frustrating option that will be even more inconsistent with Booker on the floor. It’s Booker or bust with this unit.

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (4 of 10)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Devin Booker, Dragan Bender, T.J. Warren

Secondary Plays – Tyson Chandler (if starting)

Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers							Minnesota Timberwolves
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		103.8					Implied Team Total		109.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.7					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic		Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	9	3	3	10		DvP	6	17	15	13	2
DRPM Rat.	22	2	26	8	15		DRPM Rat.	11	25	14	12	3

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

Evan Turner (Questionable)

Damian Lillard has returned for Portland, so the only situation we have to monitor is the status of Evan Turner. He sat out on Friday due to illness and is currently listed as questionable for today’s contest. These teams played a 108-107 thriller earlier this year, and Lillard posted a monster line of 17/8/13 in that game. He played 38 minutes on Friday and took 22 shots in that game, so we can safely say that he is all systems go after his injury. Lillard is by far the highest upside point guard on the two game evening slate. Backcourt mate C.J. McCollum takes a usage hit with Lillard back in the lineup, but he is still a reasonable option that won’t cost a huge chunk of your salary cap. This offense generally revolves around the two guards, and I wouldn’t expect that to change tonight. Lillard has the better matchup, though, as McCollum will likely see more of Jimmy Butler on defense.

I will safely ignore the small forward mess here, as it’s tough to endorse Turner even if he goes. He disappears far too option and didn’t play well the last time these teams met. Minnesota has also been very strong against the small forward spot this year. The highest upside option for Portland’s front line is Jusuf Nurkic. When he plays well, he gets more minutes, and the upside potential is there. I have a tough time trusting him in cash games, though it is worth noting that the center spot isn’t all that appealing on the night slate (unless you love Karl-Anthony Towns). Nurkic is squarely in play as a GPP option, while you can always consider Al-Farouq Aminu in cash games. This game does have a relatively healthy total, but neither of these guys are must play options.

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (6 of 10)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic (Cash)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

None

The last game of the day should be a fun one between two potential playoff teams in the Western Conference. The Wolves are healthy again, as point guard Jeff Teague has returned to the lineup. He didn’t shoot well in the last game, but he played a healthy dose of minutes and logged a 12/4/8 line with four steals. He is a reasonable mid-range option in all formats today, especially since he is more affordable than the primary pieces on this team. Of course, the biggest benefit of Minnesota is that we know where the minutes will go. Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns both cost a pretty penny, but they are going to be on the court for 35-38 minutes if the game stays close. I do prefer Butler today of the two. Portland is very solid defensively against the center position, and Butler’s defense will be needed against Portland’s dynamic guards. Butler also poured in 37 points on 12-for-21 shooting in the last meeting between these teams.

It’s hard to endorse anyone else with confidence here. Andrew Wiggins is a scoring-dependent player who has been nothing short of a disappointment in fantasy this year. The presence of Butler has really sapped any upside that Wiggins may have had. Taj Gibson is a steady option, but his numbers have dragged a bit over the last few weeks. He should see minutes in the mid-30’s and is a reasonable cash game option in the mid-range. He’s certainly not a must play option, though. I prefer the backcourt on this squad today.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 (5 of 10)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague

Secondary Plays – Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns