NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 24th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -13.5, 208 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Larkin-Ellington-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
| Oklahoma City | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.87 | Team Pace | 96.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Wayne Ellington | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 27 | Opp. Season | 19 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 9 | Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 8 | |
Oklahoma City (Record: 33-12 Away: 12-7)
Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.8 (24 of 30)
Brooklyn is in the bottom third of the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed this season. This game features the biggest spread of the day as the Thunder are 13’ point favorites, which means the blowout is fully in play, but with only four games on the slate, it is hard to ignore any one game. The Thunder have the highest projected team total of the day at 110 points, which is slightly above their season average (108.6). Steven Adams has been ruled out today, which means Nick Collison will get another start most likely. He could be a decent value play in a small slate day, but the bigger boost should be with Enes Kanter who becomes a good way to get some value in your lineup.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook has shown that he can put up monster fantasy lines regardless of the matchup and regardless of blowout potential. He has put up 42+ fantasy points in seven of his last nine games and many of those came in limited minutes. He is an elite play any time he takes the floor as his upside is tremendous. Choosing between Westbrook and Durant is tough, but I think the position scarcity of small forward today makes Durant a bit better of a play, but they are always both solid options.
FD — $10,500 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
Usage – 34.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.8
Durant is also in play as both of these guys deserve to be mentioned as elite plays on a short slate day. Rostering both is not a horrible idea as they both have big upside if somehow this game stays close, but more than likely, you will see them sit in the fourth today. That is a risk you are more than likely going to have to take today as Durant is by far the best play at the position and it is not really close.
FD — $10,000 — SF
DK — $9,500 — SF
Usage – 28.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.5
Secondary Plays
Kanter will be the biggest beneficiary of Adams’ minutes due to his injury. Kanter should see minutes close to 25 today with or without the blowout and only needs about 24 points for value, which he has hit twice in his last three games.
FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $4,500 — C
Usage – 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 20.4
Power forward is such a thin position today and while Ibaka is not someone we love to target for daily fantasy purposes, he is in play for his price and the great matchup against the Nets who have struggled in their interior defense this year.
FD — $5,800 — PF
DK — $5,700 — PF
Usage – 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.6
Brooklyn (Record: 11-33 Home: 7-17)
Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.7 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.5 (6 of 30)
Oklahoma has been an elite defense this year. They are ranked in the top ten in points allowed, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential and fantasy points allowed. The Nets are projected to score the least points of the day by far at only 96.5 points. It is tough to fade a team completely on such a short slate of games, but playing the Nets today is a tough option.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez is in play, but is a bit expensive considering the blowout potential today. The only Net would be Donald Sloan. Sloan is cheap, has been playing about 25+ minutes over the last five games and has averaged about 26 fantasy points during that span. Value will be needed today and Sloan is an option against Westbrook’s defense today.
FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $5,000 — PG
Usage – 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 17.0
Dallas at Houston – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Capela-Howard
| Dallas | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.08 | Team Pace | 99.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Clint Capela | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 22 | 27 | 30 | 16 | Opp. Season | 16 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 22 | Opp. Season | 9 | 19 | 16 | 23 | 24 | |
Dallas (Record: 25-12 Away: 12-12)
Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.2 (27 of 30)
Houston has been at the bottom of the league defensively all season. They are ranked 27th in both points allowed and fantasy points allowed as well as 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have a projected team total of 102.0 in this game, which is slightly above their season average of 101.0. Currently, Dirk Nowitzki is questionable to play with a knee injury. If he is unable to play, bump Parsons up in usage and Charlie Villanueva would get the start most likely, and did put up 25.7 in the last game where Dirk sat. The other player to monitor is Zaza Pachulia who is currently questionable. He would make a good play if fully healthy, but after just playing 25 minutes in his last game and the questionable tag now, makes him a risky play today.
Elite Plays
Parsons has been playing his best basketball of the season over the last two games. He has played 37 and 46 minutes in his last two games respectively and has put up 37.5 and 43.6 fantasy points in those spots. Small forward is a tough position today after Durant, and Parsons looks to be one of the better options, especially if Dirk is forced to sit again.
FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
Usage – 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 26.6
Wes Matthews
With a short slate, a lot of guys are going to get a mention just due to the fact that we have guaranteed minutes and production. Wes fits that bill as he has played 35+ minutes in each of his last three games. His ceiling is around 30 points so he will not win you a tournament single-handedly, but the matchup is solid against Harden and he just needs about 25 fantasy points for value.
FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,100 — SG
Usage – 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.0
Secondary Plays
Williams deserves a mention today as a secondary play as he has been getting all the minutes he can handle recently. He has also been playing great ball during this time with three 30+ point fantasy performances over his last five games. He gets a bit of a bump down today with Beverley expected to return to the lineup today, but is a consistent option for his price and should reach value in what should be a high scoring game.
FD — $6,200 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
Usage – 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.5
Houston (Record: 23-22 Home: 14-11)
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.6 (16 of 30)
Dallas has been an average defensive team this season. They are ranked between 14th and 16th in points allowed, fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. This Houston team has a projected team total of 105.0 for the third highest total on the slate. Dwight Howard looks ready to miss another game today and if he does it obviously opens up big minutes for Terrence Jones and Clint Capela. Both guys are in play today, but it will also be interesting to see how the return of Josh Smith to the Rockets effects their minutes today, but keep an eye out for any news about lineup changes as the day goes on.
Elite Plays
Harden is one of the best studs on the slate today as his usage is already high, but with the absence of Howard, he will be depended upon to carry the load for Houston today. He has put up 50 and 70.4 fantasy points over his last two games and appears locked in. He is going to be a tough fade at the position today and should have another 50+ fantasy outing.
FD — $10,000 — SG
DK — $10,100 — SG
Usage – 32.2
Min/Game — Season: 37.4
Secondary Plays
Keep an eye on the news as for who is starting today and if Josh Smith is even playing. Terrence Jones is probably the best value of the big men for Houston, but Corey Brewer did draw the start in their last game and played 32 minutes. Josh Smith makes a lot of the minutes a bit cloudier today, but you may have to take a chance on some of these guys as the absence of Howard opens up a nice chunk of minutes. The other guy who stepped up last game was Trevor Ariza, but again, the trade for Josh Smith may cut into his production as well.
L.A. Clippers at Toronto – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 204.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Johnson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Jordan
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Scola-Valanciunas
| L.A. Clippers | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.35 | Team Pace | 95.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Wesley Johnson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 15 | Opp. Season | 7 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 11 | Opp. Season | 5 | 15 | 28 | 14 | 30 | |
L.A. Clippers (Record: 28-15 Away: 13-8)
Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.4 (5 of 30)
The Raptors have been a very solid defensive team this year. They are ranked in the top five in both points and fantasy points per game as well as eleventh in defensive efficiency. This game features the Raptors as just two point favorites, with a total of 205’, which means it should stay close and be a very competitive game for fantasy purposes. The Clippers have a projected team total of 101.8, which is a full three points lower than their season average. Keep an eye on the news for Blake Griffin coming back. He will likely be a bit limited in his first game back, but it will have an effect on the likes of Paul and Jordan’s fantasy output.
Elite Plays
Paul should see a full compliment of minutes against the Raptors today. With Blake out, Paul has had to carry this Clippers squad. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and should put up a solid effort tonight. The problem here is the possible return of Griffin tonight, which could cut into Paul’s usage a bit, but he is still a great play in a game that should be close throughout.
FD — $10,000 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
Usage – 27.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.3
While Jordan has not exactly put up the monster games we thought he would during the Blake injury time, he has been consistently putting up around 35 fantasy points per game. His price is manageable across the industry and is looking like the safest play at the Center position if you are paying up, but I would rather take the savings with Jonas today.
FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
Usage – 13.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.2
Secondary Plays
I was debating whether to discuss J.J. Redick or Crawford here. I chose Crawford due to the about $1000 in savings you get out of him. Both guys have really struggled over their last two games, but Crawford make a solid tournament play as he can get hot very quickly and value is only set at a bit over 20 points today.
FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $4,400 — SG
Usage – 22.0
Toronto (Record: 28-15 Home: 14-6)
Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.0 (11 of 30)
The Clippers are a middle of the road defensive team so far this season. They are ranked 17th in points allowed and 11th in fantasy points allowed this year. This Toronto team has a projected team total of 103.8, which is 2.8 points higher than their season average. The only injury news from the Raptors side is DeMarre Carroll, who continues to be sidelined after knee surgery.
Elite Plays
DeRozan has been absolutely on fire recently. He is seeing huge minutes on the court and is putting up great fantasy performances with at least 45 fantasy points over his last three. The volume seems to be guaranteed at this point as he has launched 25 shots in each of those last three games. He has a great matchup against Redick and Crawford today and should feast once again.
FD — $8,600 — SG
DK — $8,300 — SG
Usage – 28.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.6
If you want a safe, mid-priced play, Valanciunas looks to be in play as he has been very consistent recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 33.2 fantasy points, while playing close to 30 minutes per game during that span. He makes for a great play for his price for both cash and tournament games.
FD — $6,400 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
Usage – 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.9
Secondary Plays
Lowry has too tough of a matchup against Paul to be considered an elite play, especially with Paul and Westbrook on the schedule today. Yet, he deserves a mention as he can put up fantasy points in a number of different ways and will be low onwned for tournaments.
FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $8,500 — PG
Usage – 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.5
Boston at Philadelphia – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -8.5, 207 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Turner-Crowder-Johnson-Olynyk
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Grant-Noel-Okafor
| Boston | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.92 | Team Pace | 99.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 19 | 30 | 28 | 28 | Opp. Season | 1 | 9 | 23 | 26 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 13 | Opp. Season | 3 | 26 | 4 | 21 | 16 | |
Boston (Record: 23-21 Away: 11-11)
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.7 (28 of 30)
Philly is one of the worst teams in the league and much of that is due to their horrible defense. They are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed, rebounding differential and fantasy points allowed per game. Boston are 8’ point favorites with an overall total of 207. The Celtics have a projected team total of 107.8, which is the second highest total of the slate and is also 4.1 points higher than their season average. Jae Crowder is currently questionable to play with an illness. If he is unable to suit up, Evan Turner, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart all get a bump in minutes and fantasy potential tonight. Amir Johnson looks like he will return to the lineup, which bumps down Kelly Olynyk.
Elite Plays
Thomas is in a great spot today against the defense of the 76ers. Thomas has played at least 31 minutes in nine of his last ten games played and has averaged 37.2 fantasy points during that span. His price is a bit better over at Draftkings and makes a great play for a reduced price from Westbrook and Paul.
FD — $8,400 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
Usage – 28.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.7
All the guards appear to be in play today and are even more so in play if Jae Crowder is forced to sit. Bradley is playing a ton of minutes since he came back from injury and has seen the floor for at least 36 minutes over all of his last eight games. He is a very safe play for both cash and tournament play today at his price and the great matchup.
FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
Usage – 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.6
Secondary Plays
The last Celtic to get a mention is Marcus Smart. All the Celtics guards seem to be seeing more minutes recently and while Smart has the lowest projected minutes and fantasy output, he is seeing the floor close to 30 minutes and should be able to reach value today in this matchup.
FD — $5,200 — PG
DK — $4,900 — PG
Usage – 18.1
Min/Game — Season: 26.8
Philadelphia (Record: 6-38 Home: 3-16)
Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.3 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.0 (12 of 30)
Boston has been an above average defensive squad this year. They are around league average in points and fantasy points allowed, but are ranked fourth in the league in defensive efficiency. This Philly team has a projected team total of 99.3, which is five points higher than their season average, but is the second lowest total of the day. Currently, Nik Stauskas is doubtful to play, while it appears that Jakarr Sampson and Nerlens Noel will play today.
Elite Plays
Covington has been a bright spot for the Sixers since Stauskas went down. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.9 fantasy points and is priced at a point where 25 fantasy points would be meeting value. He should be able to exceed that, especially over at Fanduel in this matchup and gets a bump if Stauskas has to sit again.
FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
Usage – 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.9
Secondary Plays
His price has risen to a point where he needs about 35+ fantasy points to reach value. Ish has done that in only five of his last ten games. He has a decent matchup today against the Celtics and will have to have a solid game in order to hit that 35 fantasy point mark. The minutes are there as well as the potential for a solid outing from a mid-priced point guard in Ish today, but is more of a tournament play.
FD — $7,200 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
Usage – 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 26.2
The last Sixer to get a mention is Okafor. Whlie Noel is in play as well at a very thin power forward position, Okafor has been the more consistent option recently. He has scored 28, 35 and 35 fantasy points over his last three and is coming off a 20 point, 38 minute performance in Orlando. If he is able to get those type of minutes again today, he could make for a solid tournament play that will likely be low owned.
FD — $6,500 — C
DK — $6,300 — C
Usage – 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 30.9