NBA Grind Down: Sunday, November 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics – 3:30 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 10 | DvP | 10 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 11 | |
| DRPM | -0.34 | -0.10 | N/A | 0.58 | 2.81 | DRPM | 0.62 | -2.21 | -1.29 | 0.84 | 0.71 | |
Toronto Raptors
Notable Injuries
None
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have just a four game NBA slate today, so it will be a light day of basketball action. These are always good days to take a breather, especially if you are playing NFL contests today. However, if you are a true NBA grinder, we have you covered! The day starts with Toronto traveling to Boston in an afternoon tip.
The backcourt stars in Toronto have been strangely quiet so far this season, especially Kyle Lowry. He is averaging just 13 points per game, and his scoring has really taken a dip. Most of it has been due to poor shooting, but the good news is that he has logged shooting percentages of greater than 50% in each of his last two contests. This could be the start of a warming trend for him. The bad news is that Boston has been one of the best teams in the league against point guards so far this year, and they don’t really lose much defensively without Kyrie Irving. Lowry’s usage rate has also dipped to just 21%, as DeMar DeRozan has carried the lead in usage at over 33%. Despite that, his scoring average is down three points from where it was a year ago, and his rebounds are down as well. Again, both these guys have struggled this year, but they are reasonable mid-range plays on a short slate.
As for the frontcourt, the minutes have been quite sporadic for everyone. The Raptors have about seven bodies that they can roll out there at the other three positions, and that leads to a hot hand approach at times. Boston also ranks in the top half of the league in DvP against every single position, so this doesn’t feel like the greatest spot to take a chance on someone. Serge Ibaka has had a couple of solid games in a row and is the safest play of the group, while Jonas Valanciunas carries the most upside for tournaments. It’s the minutes that are always in question with him. They are secondary plays in those respective game formats, and you could also consider Norman Powell as a risk/reward GPP option, but know that he didn’t even hit 20 minutes of court time in the last game. There isn’t a must play in the group.
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 110.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.6 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,500 | $6,800 | $13,400 | 28.7 | -5.8 | 30.8 | -4.1 | 0.93 | 20.2% | 51.0% | 2 | -0.34 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,200 | $7,100 | $13,000 | 35.2 | 0.2 | 34.3 | 2.6 | 1.03 | 27.4% | 57.4% | 1 | -0.10 |
| Norman Powell | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 18.5 | 5.3 | 24.3 | 6.1 | 0.76 | 16.7% | 52.3% | 16 | N/A |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,400 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 22.3 | -0.1 | 26.5 | 1.6 | 0.84 | 16.7% | 62.0% | 4 | 0.58 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 22.4 | -1.7 | 20.5 | 0.7 | 1.09 | 16.9% | 69.3% | 10 | 2.81 |
| Delon Wright | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.8 | -3.2 | 22.5 | -3.7 | 0.79 | 16.4% | 60.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Serge Ibaka (Cash), Norman Powell (GPP)
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Al Horford (Probable)
Kyrie Irving (Doubtful)
The biggest news here is that Kyrie Irving is unlikely to suit up today, as he suffered a facial fracture the other night. The direct beneficiaries will be Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier, both of whom will see healthy bumps in minutes and usage sans Irving. Smart’s usage has gone up almost 4%, and Rozier’s usage has gone up almost 3% with Irving off the floor this year, according to Court IQ. I would expect to see both to see around 30 minutes today with the potential for more. Shane Larkin will also play a little more but isn’t an appealing fantasy option. Both Smart and Rozier are rock solid mid-range plays on a short slate.
Al Horford is expected to return today, so that will eliminate any value that Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis had throughout the week. Kiss them goodbye for DFS purposes for now. Horford is difficult to trust in his first game back, and I would only touch him on the early only two game slate. Jayson Tatum has also seen a nice usage boost with Irving off the floor this year, but he carries a lot more risk now that Marcus Morris is back. The good news is that Tatum still played 31 minutes the other night, while Jaylen Brown also seems very secure with his role on the wing. Brown remains a solid choice in cash games, while I would reserve Tatum more for GPP formats. The Celtics are an intriguing team to target at home today, especially since Irving’s likely absence will provide more minutes and usage to go around for players who don’t cost as much.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 22.7 | -2.9 | 24.2 | 1.1 | 0.94 | 19.8% | 46.4% | 10 | 0.62 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,700 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 26.3 | -2.2 | 31.6 | -1.1 | 0.83 | 18.5% | 55.9% | 19 | -2.21 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,300 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 26.8 | -0.4 | 29.7 | -6.7 | 0.90 | 15.7% | 64.4% | 3 | -1.29 |
| Marcus Morris | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 23.4 | 3.2 | 21.8 | 2.0 | 1.07 | 23.9% | 49.8% | 18 | 0.84 |
| Aron Baynes | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 17.8 | -0.1 | 19.3 | -1.6 | 0.92 | 15.2% | 52.0% | 11 | 0.71 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,800 | $6,100 | $12,800 | 27.4 | 3.9 | 29.7 | 1.2 | 0.92 | 19.7% | 43.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 22.7 | -2.9 | 24.2 | 1.1 | 0.94 | 19.8% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Marcus Morris
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – 4:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Okaro White | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 12 | 23 | 8 | 6 | DvP | 8 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 16 | |
| DRPM | -2.98 | -1.13 | -0.03 | -0.53 | 1.37 | DRPM | -1.61 | -0.16 | 0.19 | -0.02 | 2.52 | |
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
None
On a day with more games, this would be one that we would likely dismiss for the most part. We have a low 202 point projected game total in Detroit this afternoon, with Miami and Detroit both carrying pedestrian implied team totals around 100 points. Meh. While I would like to be very brief with this game, the truth is that we have to try to find some plays to like on a four game NBA day. Detroit’s big defensive weakness this year has come against the small forward position, and even Avery Bradley has seen his defensive numbers slip on the wing. As such, the Miami wing players make for reasonable risk/reward plays. Dion Waiters is tied for the team lead in usage with Goran Dragic, Waiters has seen very consistent minutes and jacked up 20 shots the other night against the Jazz, so he seems like the most logical play here. Dragic isn’t my favorite play, but the Detroit point guards are generally not known as strong defenders, so he is very much capable of a solid day. As for that small forward spot, Josh Richardson isn’t a high usage guy, but he can get there with hustle stats and a healthy dose of minutes. He’s more of a cash game option and does not make elite status.
As for the rest of the team, there’s really not a whole lot to like. This doesn’t feel like a James Johnson game, but I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Hassan Whiteside. He has looked lethargic at times this year, but he has responded nicely to his benching against the Warriors on Monday. He had a strong game later in the week against Phoenix, and he is coming off an impressive 20 rebound performance against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz. Today’s slate is fairly light at the center position, so Whiteside certainly carries the most upside of the bunch. Don’t sleep on him today. I don’t have any interest in anyone else here.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 33.2 | 0.3 | 34.4 | -0.5 | 0.97 | 24.5% | 56.7% | 3 | -2.98 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,300 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 21.4 | -1.6 | 32.9 | -0.7 | 0.65 | 14.1% | 49.2% | 12 | -1.13 |
| Justise Winslow | $4,700 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 18.4 | 2.1 | 24.5 | 3.5 | 0.75 | 13.4% | 47.7% | 23 | -0.03 |
| Okaro White | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 13.3 | -0.2 | 0.52 | 10.0% | 57.7% | 8 | -0.53 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $8,900 | $8,000 | $14,300 | 38.9 | -0.8 | 27.1 | -1.8 | 1.43 | 21.3% | 56.4% | 6 | 1.37 |
| James Johnson | $6,400 | $6,200 | $13,200 | 32.7 | 3.4 | 28.8 | 1.3 | 1.13 | 19.8% | 60.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.1 | 1.5 | 27.3 | 3.9 | 0.70 | 17.9% | 48.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dion Waiters, Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson (Cash), Hassan Whiteside (Cash)
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
Stanley Johnson (Doubtful)
Jon Leuer (Questionable)
Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in pace, so you are not going to see a track meet here. Miami ranks in the top five in DvP against both guard positions, and I am not interested in chasing Reggie Jackson or Ish Smith today. Avery Bradley has a relatively low ceiling, but he’s a reasonable shooting guard play on a thin slate. I certainly wouldn’t prioritize fitting him into a lineup, though, and I actually prefer Waiters on the other side. That’s the extent of my interest in the Detroit guards this afternoon.
The forward spots carry some interest simply because of potential value. Stanley Johnson is doubtful for this game with an injury, while Jon Leuer is also listed as questionable. If they are both out, there will be minutes to go around. Tobias Harris has been logging heavy minutes and is the second safest play on this team. Reggie Bullock has drawn a couple of starts in Johnson’s absence, but he is a very low usage player and adds almost nothing as far as peripheral stats. He’s a true punt play only, and the upside is very limited even in a starting role. Of course, the reason why Harris is clearly the “second safest play” on the team is because Andre Drummond is lapping the field. Drummond has been nothing short of fantastic this season with averages of 14.2 points and 15.5 rebounds per game. His improved conditioning and free throw shooting have allowed him to stay on the floor more often, and he’s clearly a strong play in all formats today.
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,500 | $6,000 | $11,700 | 30.6 | -4.3 | 28.6 | -0.3 | 1.07 | 26.6% | 53.7% | 8 | -1.61 |
| Avery Bradley | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 25.1 | 4.6 | 31.2 | 1.0 | 0.81 | 21.5% | 53.2% | 7 | -0.16 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,400 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 0.49 | 10.2% | 21.8% | 20 | 0.19 |
| Tobias Harris | $7,200 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 30.1 | 1.6 | 33.2 | 1.4 | 0.91 | 22.6% | 58.1% | 21 | -0.02 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,900 | $8,700 | $15,800 | 42.9 | 6.2 | 32.8 | -0.2 | 1.31 | 16.7% | 59.0% | 16 | 2.52 |
| Ish Smith | $4,400 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 18.3 | 1.7 | 19.4 | 0.3 | 0.94 | 25.1% | 52.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Reggie Bullock (Only if Johnson and Leuer are both out)
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers – 6:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.5 |  | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 112.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 11 | 13 | 29 | 27 | DvP | 11 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 17 | |
| DRPM | -1.67 | 1.64 | -2.76 | 1.69 | 2.43 | DRPM | -1.81 | -0.13 | 1.54 | -0.16 | 1.25 | |
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries
Nene Hilario (Doubtful)
This contest promises to be the most exciting game of the day, as we have a total of 223 points and a four point spread as Houston faces off against Indiana. The Rockets have the highest implied team total of the day, and you need some exposure to this team in all formats. James Harden is the top overall play on the slate despite the fact that he will match up with Victor Oladipo. His stable minutes and multi-category potential make him extremely safe, and we all know that he has massive upside. Don’t overthink this one; get Harden into some of your lineups. Eric Gordon is a little pricey for me these days, especially since Harden will dominate the ball, but I wouldn’t actively talk you off of him, especially if he ends up getting checked by Darren Collison. That’s a mismatch in Gordon’s favor.
The home/road splits for Ryan Anderson have really gotten some attention this week, and perhaps there is some credence to the fact that his level of color blindness keeps him from shooting well at home. In any case, he’s on the road today, so the narrative would say that we can fire him up. He does carry a safe chunk of minutes, but he’s guaranteed to be a fantasy disappointment if his shot is not falling. The same risk/reward potential applies to Trevor Ariza at small forward. Both are reasonable secondary plays if you need the salary savings. Clint Capela has been a solid fantasy contributor this year with a double-double average on the season, and he has played over 30 minutes in the last two games. With a matchup on tap against an Indiana team that can play big and Nene Hilario doubtful to play today, the minutes should be there for Capela. Logic would dictate that Capela is a very strong play in this matchup, especially since Indiana has really struggled with interior defense this season.
In short, all five starters are in play here in a favorable matchup.
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $11,800 | $11,900 | $20,300 | 49.9 | 6.9 | 35.6 | -1.9 | 1.40 | 33.8% | 61.8% | 20 | -1.67 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,900 | $6,700 | $12,600 | 31.3 | -0.7 | 33.0 | -2.1 | 0.95 | 26.0% | 59.0% | 11 | 1.64 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,700 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 22.7 | 4.6 | 35.0 | -1.3 | 0.65 | 12.1% | 49.5% | 13 | -2.76 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.9 | -1.8 | 31.2 | -1.8 | 0.70 | 14.0% | 61.1% | 29 | 1.69 |
| Clint Capela | $6,900 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 33.4 | -2.1 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 1.38 | 16.5% | 70.6% | 27 | 2.43 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.8 | 1.0 | 29.1 | -2.7 | 0.64 | 9.0% | 48.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
None
This is a favorable fantasy matchup for the Pacers against a Rockets team that ranks third in the NBA in pace and slightly below average in defensive efficiency. Don’t be afraid to get some exposure here. Victor Oladipo leads the team with a 33.2% usage rate this year, and he should be excited for a head-to-head date with James Harden. While Oladipo is very much a scoring-dependent fantasy option, this is certainly one of those games where he could put up a pile of points. I’ll gladly fire up some rosters with him this afternoon. Darren Collison has generally taken a back seat to Oladipo in terms of production, but he’s a reasonable secondary option in the favorable matchup.
In the frontcourt, it feels like the wheels have to fall off Bojan Bogdanovic at some point. He does nothing outside of scoring, and his 56% shooting percentage so far this month is not going to last. I am going to fade him in tournaments today, and if I get burned by a chalky Bogdanovic, so be it. He’s not smashing value unless he scores a pile of points, and he will likely match up with Trevor Ariza at times in this game. Chasing the points just doesn’t make sense to me, but I understand that there is some risk involved in the fade. The minutes at the power forward and center positions are largely dominated by Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis. All three are going to have 30-34 minute roles moving forward, as Sabonis really impressed while Turner was injured. Turner is still the highest upside fantasy option here, and he is the one I am most interested in for DFS purposes. Young doesn’t carry a ton of upside but is a reasonable choice for cash games, while you could do worse than Sabonis as a GPP flier. Sabonis continues to put up solid numbers, and he still carries a double-double average on the season. He will garner almost no attention with Turner healthy. Those types of plays have the potential to be a difference-maker on a four game slate.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,500 | $5,900 | $12,300 | 28.6 | -2.9 | 31.8 | 1.0 | 0.90 | 18.8% | 59.6% | 11 | -1.81 |
| Victor Oladipo | $7,600 | $7,700 | $15,900 | 36.0 | -7.5 | 32.6 | 2.2 | 1.11 | 27.1% | 59.1% | 16 | -0.13 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 20.2 | -2.4 | 28.8 | -1.2 | 0.70 | 16.0% | 63.4% | 15 | 1.54 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,300 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 29.2 | -0.4 | 34.0 | 2.4 | 0.86 | 16.1% | 58.2% | 10 | -0.16 |
| Myles Turner | $7,900 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 35.0 | -4.6 | 28.7 | -0.3 | 1.22 | 20.0% | 55.6% | 17 | 1.25 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,500 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.7 | -1.6 | 23.6 | 0.3 | 0.79 | 17.2% | 54.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,400 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 29.9 | -2.8 | 26.9 | 2.4 | 1.11 | 17.7% | 65.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,400 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 16.0 | 4.8 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 0.79 | 18.7% | 36.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner
Secondary Plays – Domantas Sabonis (GPP), Thaddeus Young (Cash), Darren Collison
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 97.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Yogi Ferrell | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Dakari Johnson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | DvP | 19 | 28 | 1 | 27 | 24 | |
| DRPM | -0.59 | 2.47 | 0.13 | -1.49 | N/A | DRPM | N/A | -1.21 | 0.25 | -0.08 | 0.81 | |
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries
Devin Harris (Doubtful)
Seth Curry (Out)
Devin Harris got injured in last night’s game and is unlikely to play tonight. With Seth Curry still out, the minutes will be plentiful for the likes of Yogi Ferrell, J.J. Barea, and inconsistent rookie Dennis Smith. Smith put up a solid 21/5/7 line with a pair of steals and a pair of blocks in last night’s close loss to the Cavaliers, and he is surprisingly affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings today. He’s relatively higher price-wise on FantasyDraft, making him more of a secondary play over there. Ferrell has been starting and playing a lot of minutes of his own, making him a decent value play despite a relatively difficult matchup. Barea is a risk/reward GPP option only.
The Thunder have very strong wing defenders in Andre Roberson and Paul George, and they will likely be tasked with shutting down Harrison Barnes tonight. While Barnes carries a healthy amount of usage and will certainly play his share of minutes, be very careful with him today. I can’t fade him entirely because of his role on this team and the fact that we only have four games today, but he is definitely not an elite play. I am off Dirk Nowitzki on the tail end of a back-to-back set. Nerlens Noel was a DNP-CD last night. If Nowitzki happens to sit tonight, perhaps Dwight Powell becomes more interesting. Otherwise, it’s really difficult to trust this frontcourt in a difficult matchup. I’ll pass.
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.2 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.8 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,900 | $5,500 | $11,800 | 25.2 | 5.4 | 28.3 | 0.3 | 0.89 | 27.1% | 46.2% | 14 | -0.59 |
| Yogi Ferrell | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 19.1 | -5.5 | 28.3 | -4.3 | 0.68 | 16.1% | 58.2% | 2 | 2.47 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 21.9 | -2.4 | 34.0 | -0.2 | 0.64 | 15.1% | 55.5% | 6 | 0.13 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,400 | $6,000 | $11,000 | 29.4 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 0.9 | 0.84 | 21.7% | 53.2% | 6 | -1.49 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 20.1 | -7.4 | 24.1 | -3.3 | 0.83 | 19.0% | 49.2% | 14 | N/A |
| J.J. Barea | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 22.0 | -2.6 | 1.01 | 26.0% | 55.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Smith, Jr. (FD & DK)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith, Jr. (FDRAFT), Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell, J.J. Barea (GPP)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
Steven Adams (Questionable)
This is the third game in four nights for Oklahoma City, so that adds some element of risk to their players, especially if this game starts to get out of hand at some point. Russell Westbrook is obviously an elite fantasy player on a nightly basis, and there’s no reason to be scared of a matchup against Smith on the other side. While Westbrook hasn’t put up “Westbrookian” style numbers this year thanks to the additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, he still has the potential to be the highest scoring player on a given slate. I wouldn’t get cute and play him over Harden in cash games on the all day slate, but there’s obvious GPP appeal here. As for the other primary options, it’s tough to distinguish between George and Anthony on a nightly basis. Dallas has been much weaker against power forwards this year, so logic would dictate that this is more of an Anthony game, but both guys are solid options with the short slate today.
Steven Adams is currently listed as a game time decision for today, and that might swing a few things on the slate. Adams obviously cannot be trusted with this being the last game of the day, unless we get early news that confirms he is playing. Dakari Johnson drew the start in Adams’ absence the other night, but he doesn’t carry much fantasy appeal. Jerami Grant has quietly been churning with his 22-26 minutes per game, making value on what seems like a nightly basis. George and Anthony would also see a small boost if Adams can’t go, as they might be able to grab a few more rebounds and easy baskets. Both players were very good against the Clippers on Friday.
The fringe players really aren’t fantasy options given how much of the usage revolves around the three stars. Andre Roberson is never fun to roster, and I’m not interested in anyone else.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 7.1 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.6 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $10,800 | $11,000 | $21,100 | 47.4 | -2.5 | 34.3 | 2.4 | 1.38 | 31.9% | 50.5% | 19 | N/A |
| Andre Roberson | $4,100 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 21.0 | 6.3 | 0.55 | 10.0% | 49.2% | 28 | -1.21 |
| Paul George | $8,800 | $7,900 | $14,500 | 35.4 | 2.0 | 34.5 | 4.0 | 1.03 | 23.7% | 54.0% | 1 | 0.25 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,900 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 33.2 | -6.0 | 32.4 | -2.2 | 1.02 | 24.9% | 52.6% | 27 | -0.08 |
| Dakari Johnson | $3,700 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 3.05 | 26.7% | 75.0% | 24 | 0.81 | ||
| Jerami Grant | $4,600 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 19.6 | -0.4 | 23.5 | 2.5 | 0.83 | 14.4% | 55.4% | N/A | N/A |