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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-11 14:08:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks Toronto Raptors
atlantanba Vegas Total 199.0 torontonba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Jason Thompson Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 14 4 4 18 Opp. Season 6 17 12 17 25
Last 3 Weeks 2 15 13 4 16 Last 3 Weeks 7 6 10 18 23

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 36-28 — Road: 17-16 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks have won six of their last ten games and are now eight above .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in what should be a defensive battle. The Hawks are only projected to score 97.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. Atlanta also has the lowest projected point differential at -4.7.

The Raptors have been very good defensively this season, ranking ninth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This would typically be a spot to avoid the Hawks altogether, but that’s tough to do in these short slates. Even with only four games on the schedule, the Hawks are secondary fantasy options tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 33.5 0.9 33.6 1.0
FPPG (FD) 36.9 35.4 -1.5 35.7 -1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 19.9 -0.2 18.6 -1.5

Millsap is the one Hawks’ player that I may consider for cash games tonight. He is just as consistent of a fantasy option as you will find at power forward. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 35.4 fantasy points in 33.5 minutes per contest. The Raptors have been tough on opposing frontcourts, but we can’t always target players in optimal matchups when the slate is small.

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$6,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 35.0 2.9 33.0 0.9
FPPG (FD) 31.9 34.7 2.8 29.6 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 15.8 -2.1 15.4 -2.6

Horford’s production has been down recently, but he is still averaging 35 minutes over his last ten games. In an important game against the Raptors, we can project him to play minutes in the upper-30s tonight. Horford also draws the best matchup of the five Hawks’ starters, as the Raptors are ranked 18th against centers this season.

Kent Bazemore
kent-bazemore-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.4 27.5 -0.9 31.5 3.1
FPPG (FD) 23.0 19.3 -3.6 24.1 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 14.4 -1.8 13.1 -3.1

Bazemore hasn’t been great recently, but his minutes and production are both trending in the right direction. Over his last five games, he is averaging 24.1 fantasy points in 31.5 minutes per contest. His price is still affordable across the industry and he provides good value at the always-thin small forward position.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 42-20 — Home: 24-7 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and find themselves two and a half games behind the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. They are listed as 4-point favorites tonight against the Hawks, which seems a bit low. The Raptors are projected to score 101.5 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board and 1.2 points below their scoring average.

The Hawks have become a top ten defensive team with strong play over the last month. They are now ranked sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. The Hawks’ biggest weakness has been on the glass. They have the second worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 35.7 -0.4 35.7 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 35.2 34.0 -1.2 37.0 1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 25.6 -0.2 26.8 1.0

DeRozan is basically the Paul Millsap of shooting guards. He is consistent night in and night out. He rarely has a bad fantasy outing, which always makes him one of my favorite cash game targets. He draws a nice matchup tonight against Kyle Korver and the Hawks, who are ranked 17th against shooting guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.1 39.0 1.9 39.3 2.2
FPPG (FD) 39.8 44.5 4.6 42.4 2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.5 22.7 0.1 22.2 -0.3

Lowry is a borderline elite play in all league formats. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 44.5 fantasy points over his last ten contests. He is also playing as many minutes as he can handle, averaging 39 per game during that stretch. The only knock on Lowry tonight is his matchup. The Hawks have been tough on point guards this season.

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.1 25.9 -0.2 24.4 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 26.5 26.2 -0.3 23.5 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 16.8 0.0 15.4 -1.4

As I mentioned above, the biggest weakness of the Hawks is their rebounding. Valanciunas is by far my favorite target in the Raptors’ frontcourt, as he is the only one that we can rely on to play 25+ minutes. If you are looking to differentiate your lineup in tournaments, Valanciunas makes a strong play against a Hawks’ team that is ranked 25th against centers.

Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM

Chicago Bulls San Antonio Spurs
chicagonba Vegas Total 205.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose E’Twaun Moore Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 3 4 Opp. Season 27 15 23 24 26
Last 3 Weeks 4 13 1 3 4 Last 3 Weeks 19 14 19 30 15

Chicago Bulls

Record: 32-30 — Road: 11-19 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have won five of their last ten games and are clinging onto one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. They draw an awful matchup tonight against the Spurs in San Antonio. The Bulls are only projected to score 97 points, which is the lowest team total on the board and considerably lower than their scoring average.

The Spurs are the best defensive team in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Chicago will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, as he is still dealing with a knee injury. Bobby Portis is listed as a game-time decision.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$8,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 33.3 1.2 33.7 1.6
FPPG (FD) 39.5 44.8 5.2 49.2 9.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.4 22.8 1.4 23.4 2.0

Gasol is the only Bulls’ player on my radar tonight. I will not be looking his way in cash games though, as Alex Len and Nikola Jokic are both in better spots. Gasol is coming off of a monster triple-double against the Bucks. The offense should run through him tonight, which gives him decent upside even in a tough matchup against the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 54-10 — Home: 30-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs have won nine of their last ten games and are a perfect 30-0 at home this season. They will look to keep their streak intact tonight against the reeling Bulls. The Spurs are large favorites here with their team total set at 108 points. San Antonio also has the third highest projected point differential at +3.3.

The Bulls have not been a great team defensively this season, especially in the games that Jimmy Butler has missed. They have given up at least 100 points in every game that he has been out. The Spurs’ offense sees a small boost as a whole, but as always with the Spurs, they are risky plays whenever the spread is in the double-digits. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili are all expected to return to the lineup tonight.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 34.7 1.9 35.1 2.3
FPPG (FD) 36.7 41.8 5.1 41.8 5.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.9 25.1 3.2 26.9 5.0

Leonard has let a lot of people down over the last two games. That would usually lead to a decrease in ownership, but with only four games on the schedule tonight, I expect him to be one of the highest owned players on the board. If you take out his last two games, he has otherwise been in terrific form. He also draws a nice matchup against the Bulls, who are going to be without their best perimeter defender.

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 33.8 3.6 34.3 4.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 38.4 6.8 43.2 11.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.8 21.5 -0.3 23.6 1.8

It took a while, but Aldridge is finally looking his his old self. He has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 38.4 fantasy points in 33.8 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$4,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.1 22.9 -2.2 23.2 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 24.6 23.5 -1.0 26.0 1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 16.2 1.5 17.5 2.7

Duncan should be well rested, after sitting out Tuesday’s game. He isn’t the safest play on the board, but he provides good upside for the price, especially on DraftKings. I’d consider Duncan more of a tournament play on FanDuel, but he is cash game playable on DraftKings. The Bulls have not fared well against centers this season.

Tony Parker
tony-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.1 29.0 1.9 27.0 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 23.2 22.5 -0.6 14.9 -8.2
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 19.4 0.5 12.3 -6.6

Parker has not played well in his last ten games, averaging only 22.5 fantasy points per game. However, he is so cheap and in such a good matchup that I expect him to be a popular play tonight. There aren’t many value plays as of now, which only makes Parker more intriguing. On the season, the Bulls are ranked 27th against point guards.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Denver Nuggets
phoenixnba Vegas Total 214.0 denvernba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 20 27 15 25 18 Opp. Season 29 30 28 14 9
Last 3 Weeks 13 8 21 25 12 Last 3 Weeks 29 30 9 20 25

Phoenix Suns

Record: 17-46 — Road: 6-25 — Last 10: 3-7

The Suns have lost seven of their last ten games and are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. They were throttled by the Knicks last night in a game where they were actually the favorites. Tonight they are 7.5-point underdogs against the Nuggets in Denver. The Suns are projected to score 103.3 points, which is the fourth highest team total and 2.7 points above their scoring average.

The Nuggets have not fared well on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Brandon Knight was active for last night’s game against the Knicks, but he did not see any action. When he does return to the floor, it will cut into the minutes and/or usage of Ronnie Price, Devin Booker, and Alex Len.

Elite Plays

Alex Len
alex-len-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.1 29.4 8.3 35.7 14.6
FPPG (FD) 19.8 33.8 14.0 41.2 21.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 23.2 7.1 22.1 6.0

Len had a strange game last night. He got into foul trouble early and had only four points and two rebounds at the half. He then had a monster third quarter and was looking like he could end up reaching value. Unfortunately, right when he got back into the game, the Knicks went on a big run and Earl Watson decided to bench all five starters. Look for Lencules to bounce back tonight in a favorable matchup against the Nuggets.

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.8 34.0 9.2 37.5 12.7
FPPG (FD) 17.1 24.5 7.4 29.8 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 19.5 2.2 21.2 4.0

Booker is not afraid to take shots, as evidenced by his 28 shot attempts last night. He is currently underpriced given his role in the Suns’ offense and he is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. The Nuggets are always an exploitable matchup for shooting guards, as they have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the position.

Secondary Plays

Ronnie Price
ronnie-price-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.8 28.9 11.1 30.3 12.5
FPPG (FD) 12.0 19.2 7.2 18.4 6.4
TO-Adj. Usage 12.0 12.5 0.5 11.4 -0.6

It will be interesting to see what the Suns do with Brandon Knight tonight. If we don’t think that he will play, Price makes a nice value play at point guard. He has played well over his last ten games, averaging just under 20 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a nice matchup against the Nuggets in what should be a fast-paced game.

Denver Nuggets

Record: 26-38 — Home: 14-19 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and are now 26-38 overall. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Suns, who can’t seem to slow anybody down these days. The Nuggets are projected to score 110.8 points here. Not only do they have the highest team total on the board, but they also have the highest projected point differential at +9.1.

The Suns have been one of the best matchups in daily fantasy basketball over the last month or so. They are now ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Danilo Gallinari remains out for the Nuggets, but they are otherwise healthy heading into tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.4 22.7 2.3 27.2 6.8
FPPG (FD) 22.5 28.4 5.9 32.4 9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 20.7 2.7 21.4 3.5

Jokic is finally starting to play more minutes, which means we can start using him in cash games again. He is still a better tournament play on sites that only allow you to roster one center, but I don’t mind pairing Jokic with Alex Len on sites that allow it. He has really played well recently, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last three games.

Emmanuel Mudiay
emmanuel-mudiay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 31.4 1.0 34.0 3.6
FPPG (FD) 24.7 27.8 3.1 35.2 10.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.2 21.3 0.1 24.0 2.8

Mudiay has quietly been playing some great basketball. Over his last five games, he is averaging 35.2 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. He draws one of the top matchups on the board tonight, as the Suns are ranked 29th against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried
kenneth-faried-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.1 25.3 -0.8 27.6 1.5
FPPG (FD) 27.1 30.2 3.1 35.1 8.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.6 19.1 1.5 20.5 2.9

Even though he has been playing well and even though this is a decent spot for Faried, I am going to limit my exposure to him tonight. He is the cash game killer, as he loves to let us down in good spots. He makes a strong tournament play though, as an uptempo game against a bad defense is the perfect environment for him.

Will Barton
will-barton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.8 30.1 1.3 28.5 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 27.1 24.5 -2.7 22.0 -5.1
TO-Adj. Usage 20.6 21.0 0.4 19.6 -1.0

Barton has not had the breakout performance that we have been waiting for since Danilo Gallinari went down with his injury, but we can still project him to play around 30 minutes against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. There are better options for cash games, but I like Barton as a sneaky GPP play tonight at home.

Gary Harris
gary-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.61 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 36.9 4.8 38.4 6.3
FPPG (FD) 19.7 24.6 4.9 26.3 6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.9 15.3 1.4 15.1 1.2

Harris is the exact opposite as Will Barton. He is going to play as many minutes as he can handle and he offers a high floor. He is a safe cash game play tonight and considering the way the Suns defend shooting guards, is worth a look in tournaments as well.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Los Angeles Lakers
clevelandnba Vegas Total 209.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd -9.5 Vegas Sprd 9.5
Team Proj. 109.3 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Nick Young Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 27 22 28 Opp. Season 19 7 6 1 1
Last 3 Weeks 28 23 26 19 19 Last 3 Weeks 27 4 8 1 7

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 44-18 — Road: 17-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers haven’t been playing their best basketball lately, but they are still leading the way in the Eastern Conference. They draw an easy matchup tonight against the Lakers in the tail end of a back-to-back. The Cavaliers are projected to score 109.3 points, which is the second highest team total on the board and 6.1 points above their scoring average.

The Lakers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 26th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Cavaliers’ offense sees a sizable boost as a whole in this matchup. We do need to keep our eye on Cleveland throughout the day though, as there have been rumors that they may rest at least one of their superstars in each game down the stretch of the regular season. Tonight’s game against the Lakers would be a good time to do it.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,100 Salary:$9,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.33
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.7 -0.1 35.2 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 44.7 45.6 0.9 49.1 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 26.9 -0.5 28.6 1.1

As long as James is in the lineup tonight, he is going to be the premier play at small forward. There is certainly the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, but the fact that they are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games could help. If James sees a full complement of minutes, he could easily be the top scorer in this slate.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.1 30.8 0.7 33.3 3.2
FPPG (FD) 30.0 30.4 0.4 35.5 5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 25.1 -0.7 25.4 -0.5

You never have to pull my arm to get me to roster a point guard against the Lakers. On the season, they are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position. Irving has also been playing much better basketball recently, averaging 35.5 fantasy points over his last five games.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$7,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 32.3 0.1 31.7 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 32.7 30.6 -2.1 25.4 -7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.5 20.3 0.8 18.3 -1.2

Love is cheap enough that you can consider him for cash games, but I wouldn’t play all three of the Cavaliers’ superstars together. Doing so increases the risk of your lineup overall, especially in a potential blowout. Love has nice upside in this matchup though, as the Lakers don’t rebound or defend the paint well.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 26.9 -1.1 25.9 -2.1
FPPG (FD) 20.9 22.1 1.2 20.0 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 10.0 11.4 1.4 12.5 2.5

Thompson is a decent play either way, but would see a nice boost in minutes if Timofey Mozgov is unable to suit up tonight. If that’s the case, I would bump Thompson up to an elite play against this weak Lakers’ frontcourt.

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 14-51 — Home: 9-21 — Last 10: 3-7

The Lakers have lost seven of their last ten games and are only 14-51 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Cavaliers at home. The Lakers are sizable underdogs with a low team total of only 99.8 points.

The Cavaliers have been stout defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This would typically be a good spot to fade the Lakers as a whole, but again, there are only four games on the schedule tonight. Byron Scott is now giving out odds of his injured players being active. Kobe Bryant is “50/50” for tonight’s game, while Lou Williams has a 10% chance of playing.

Elite Plays

D’Angelo Russell
d-angelo-russell-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.9 32.1 4.2 33.9 6.0
FPPG (FD) 23.1 30.1 7.0 35.0 11.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 21.9 2.0 25.3 5.4

The one position that has had success against the Cavaliers this season is point guard. Despite being a top five defense overall, Cleveland is ranked 19th against point guards. Russell has really flourished since entering the starting lineup and with Kobe Bryant and Lou Williams both questionable to doubtful, he should get plenty of shots up again tonight.

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle
julius-randle-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 29.8 2.1 30.0 2.3
FPPG (FD) 26.3 29.1 2.8 32.3 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.3 19.1 0.8 20.4 2.1

Randle may not play 35 minutes a game, but he averages close to a fantasy point per minute this season. He should see right around 30 minutes tonight against the Cavaliers. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his matchup. Cleveland is ranked first against power forwards this season.

Jordan Clarkson
jordan-clarkson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,200
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 32.8 0.4 32.6 0.2
FPPG (FD) 25.3 29.7 4.4 29.5 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 19.6 21.1 1.5 22.4 2.8

If you only look at the DvP matchup for Clarkson, he is not going to stand out as a great play tonight. However, he spends a lot of time at point guard, which means he spend some of his time in a favorable matchup. Clarkson would also see a nice boost if Kobe Bryant is unable to suit up.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious