NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-18 01:36:56

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		215.0					Vegas Total		215.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		104.3					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	3	3	8	22		DvP	10	16	19	5	9
DRPM Rat.	2	22	4	9	21		DRPM Rat.	12	14	2	19	7

Washington Wizards

The Wizards came close, but failed to pick up a win against the Raptors in Game 1. This is a series that I expect to be competitive throughout, regardless of where each game is being played. Washington comes into tonight’s game as 6.5-point underdogs, but the total is set at 215 points. The Wizards have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the third highest of the slate. We had a shootout in Game 1 and I’m expecting more of the same in Game 2. This might end up being the best game of the three to target.

John Wall was one of the lower owned point guards of the slate on Saturday and it could end up that way again tonight. Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, and Rajon Rondo are all viable options at the position. Wall played 39 minutes and put up 62 fantasy points in the first game of the series and is still priced below $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I slightly prefer him on DraftKings where we can load up on point guards. Bradley Beal draws a favorable matchup against DeMar DeRozan and has averaged 43 fantasy points per game against the Raptors in their five meetings so far this season. Beal is expensive on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($6,800).

Otto Porter is an excellent defender. He has really done a nice job on DeRozan this season, but we haven’t seen his upside on the offensive end of the floor. Dating back to the regular season, Porter has only topped 24 fantasy points once in his last six games. The price is appealing and we have to roster two small forwards on FanDuel, but I’m not as confident in Porter as I am in a few of his teammates. Markieff Morris was the Wizards’ MVP in Game 1, scoring 44 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. I want to believe in Markieff, but he’s shown us time and time again that he will disappear for games at a time. For that reason, I will only be using Morris in tournaments. Marcin Gortat is my favorite value play of the slate. Despite picking up two fouls in the first two minutes of Game 1, he still logged 28 minutes. I like his chances to hit the 30-minute mark here. Mike Scott is an intriguing punt in tournaments after playing 27 minutes off the bench on Saturday.

Notable Injuries

None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (3 of 6)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Marcin Gortat, Bradley Beal (DK), Otto Porter (FD), Markieff Morris (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (FD), Otto Porter (DK), Markieff Morris (Cash), Mike Scott (GPP)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were lucky to pick up a win in Game 1 against the Wizards, as their two best players both had subpar games. If they want to advance deep into the playoffs, they will need better performances from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. They say that a series doesn’t start until a team wins on the road, so the Raptors will be trying to delay the start of this series. They come into the game with an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the highest of the six teams in action tonight.

Lowry really struggled in Game 1, yet he still finished with 29 fantasy points. I’m not overly concerned about a single bad outing, as it led to a lower price point and potentially to lower ownership. During the regular season, he averaged 1.06 fantasy points per minute. Assuming this game stays close, Lowry should play 38-40 minutes. He’s my favorite point-per-dollar point guard of the slate. DeMar DeRozan can struggle with long defenders and over the last couple of seasons, Otto Porter has done an excellent job of defending him. With that said, DeRozan should see minutes in the upper 30s. He’s going to fly under the radar, despite a relatively cheap $7,400 price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Keep an eye on the availability of Fred VanVleet. He was unable to suit up in Game 1 and Delon Wright made the most of his opportunity, scoring 25 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action. Even if VanVleet is out again, I don’t expect Wright to play 30+ minutes again. If anything, Wright becomes an interesting fade if VanVleet is ruled out. If he is able to suit up, VanVleet is worth a look in tournaments, as he had an excellent finish to the regular season. C.J. Miles and OG Anunboy are decent punt plays in tournaments, but there are better options for cash games. Surprisingly, there are quite a few value plays that stand out tonight.

The Raptors’ frontcourt really played well in Game 1. I made a mistake by writing off Serge Ibaka as a play. I honestly expected the Raptors to keep their same frontcourt rotation as they had during the regular season. I forgot to look back at their rotation from last year’s postseason where Ibaka averaged 31 minutes in their ten playoff games. His price will likely go up from here and he offers a higher floor at power forward than Markieff Morris. Jonas Valanciunas is a great per-minute producer, but we can never expect him to play more than 22-25 minutes. He’s also had a tough time against Marcin Gortat throughout his career. He’s an easy fade for both cash games and tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Fred VanVleet (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (2 of 6)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, DeMar DeRozan (FD)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK), Delon Wright (if VanVleet is out), Fred VanVleet (GPP – if active), C.J. Miles (GPP), OG Anunboy (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		197.5					Vegas Total		197.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		97.5					Implied Team Total		100.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	2	5	12	1	2		DvP	3	11	6	11	28
DRPM Rat.	6	2	3	2	1		DRPM Rat.	8	28	23	5	6

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks nearly picked up a win against the Celtics in Game 1. There were some amazing shots hit by both teams in the fourth quarter and in overtime. I’m not sure I will ever forget Terry Rozier breaking Eric Bledsoe ankles for what he thought was the game-winner. Then with 0.5 seconds to go, Khris Middleton drained a 40-footer to send the game in to overtime. If Game 1 was any indication, this may end up being the best first-round series of the playoffs. The Bucks have the lowest implied total on the board (97.5 points), but they are only 2.5-point underdogs in Game 2, so we can expect another close, hard-fought battle.

Eric Bledsoe really struggled in Game 1, scoring only 15 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action. While I expect a better performance from him in Game 2, there are too many viable point guards available to make room for Bledsoe in my lineups. Malcolm Brogdon stole the show, scoring 26 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. We can expect him to play minutes in the upper 20s tonight, as it should be noted that five of his minutes from the first game were in overtime. He’s the best value play at shooting guard, but not quite my favorite value play overall. Khris Middleton is going to play 40+ minutes a game in this series. The Celtics have been tough on wing players all season, but I will gladly pay $7,400 for Middleton on DraftKings. He offers a higher floor than players like Bradley Beal and C.J. McCollum.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was a bit lucky to walk away with 66 fantasy points in Game 1. He needed a big fourth quarter to reach 50 fantasy points and then obviously had a big overtime. While he does have a great track record against Boston this season (averaging 60 fantasy points per game), I actually don’t mind the fade. I like paying up at point guard and for Anthony Davis. The Bucks have the lowest implied total on the board and the Celtics have been tough on wing players all season. John Henson is one of the best value plays on DraftKings ($4,600) and his ability to rack up blocks and steals puts him on my radar on FanDuel ($5,500) as well. Jabari Parker is a super intriguing tournament play after letting down 20% of the field in Game 1. I’m not going to use him here in hopes that he can have another bad outing and his price will come down for Game 3.

Notable Injuries

None

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -9.0 (6 of 6)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon (FD), John Henson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon (DK), John Henson (FD), Giannis Antetokounmpo

Boston Celtics

The Celtics were lucky enough to escape with a win in Game 1, but they can’t afford to lose home-court advantage. They are barely favored in Game 2, so they will likely be sizable underdogs once the series shifts to Milwaukee. This is such a great year for the playoffs, as there are a number of teams that could end up coming out of the Eastern Conference. Boston’s matchup against the Bucks is mediocre for fantasy production and they come into the game with an implied total of 100 points. It’s worth noting that this will be the slowest-paced game of the slate and by a wide margin.

Terry Rozier was awfully quiet in the first three quarters, but came alive in the fourth and in overtime. While I’m a big fan of his game, he’s an easy fade in Game 2. This slate is loaded with elite point guards and Eric Bledsoe is one of the best point guard defenders left in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both shined in Game 1 and can both be expected to play 38-40 minutes in Game 2. Their prices have come up across the industry, but Brown is viable on both sites and Tatum is viable on DraftKings. I’d rather target them in Boston than on the road in games three and four.

Al Horford tends to step up in the playoffs. He had some big games last year and he put up a massive outing in Game 1. He finished with 58 fantasy points in 44 minutes of action. I’m not expecting a repeat, but still have him on my short list of targets at center tonight. The Bucks have long struggled against centers, ranking dead last in efficiency during the regular season. Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe were both popular value plays on Sunday, but with the Bucks playing small, they didn’t see the floor often. For now, both can be avoided in all formats. Marcus Morris was the hero in fourth quarter and overtime, finishing the game with 29 fantasy points. He’s viable, but not a core play for me tonight. While this game has the closest spread, I will have more exposure to the other two on the schedule.

Notable Injuries

Marcus Smart (Out)
Kyrie Irving (Out)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (4 of 6)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (FD), Marcus Morris

New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Portland Trail Blazers
			Vegas Total		214.0					Vegas Total		214.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		103.8					Implied Team Total		110.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		3.1
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Nikola Mirotic	Anthony Davis		Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	7	13	12	5		DvP	18	27	25	18	17
DRPM Rat.	10	24	20	2	1		DRPM Rat.	16	1	28	11	1

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans picked up a huge win in Game 1. They now have home-court advantage in the series, but more often than not, road teams tend to have a letdown after winning Game 1 on the road. While that’s a small concern, I’m not going to let it impact my decision making for tonight’s slate. We have a 6.5-point spread in a game that features a total of 214 points. The Pelicans have an implied total of 103.8 points. While that is considerably lower than their season average, New Orleans has tightened their rotation enough to make up for it.

Rajon Rondo steps up in the playoffs, no doubt about it. He had some huge games while on the Celtics and if you remember back to last season, the Bulls looked like they were going to pull the first round upset. However, after two games, Rondo got hurt and had to sit out the rest of the series. In Game 1, he casually dished out 17 assists, scoring 42 fantasy points in 39 minutes of action. I will always play Rondo when I feel good about his minute projection and that’s certainly the case tonight against Portland. Jrue Holiday is at his best when he’s the primary ball-handler in the offense. With Rondo playing 35+ minutes a night, that is going to cut into Holiday’s touches. While I understand the play, I will be looking elsewhere at shooting guard.

The Pelicans are likely going to ride the hot hand with Ian Clark or E’Twaun Moore. With the rest of the starters locked into 35+ minutes a game, they are competing with each other for minutes. For now, Clark and Moore are both deep tournament plays at best. Nikola Mirotic has been an excellent fit for the Pelicans. He spreads the floor offensively, he can get to the rim, and he’s a better rebounder than people give him credit for. It feels outrageous paying $8,000 for him, but he’s going to play close to 40 minutes and on the season, he averaged 1.11 FP/min. If we do some simple math, we have to like his chances to reach value even at his inflated price point. Anthony Davis is my favorite play on the board when you don’t factor in salaries. He’s going to play as many minutes as he can handle and his ability to fill up all five areas of the stat sheet gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. With plenty of value available, it’s pretty easy to fit Davis into lineups tonight.

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -8.0 (5 of 6)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Nikola Mirotic, Anthony Davis

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday, Ian Clark (GPP), E’Twaun Moore (GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are in a must-win game tonight against the Pelicans. They can’t afford to lose both games at home and head to New Orleans in an 0-2 hole. These are the situations that I love targeting in the playoffs because we know this game means more to Portland than it does to the Pelicans. The Blazers are the only team on the board that has an implied total above their season average. They are projected to score 110.3 points, which is the second highest of the slate.

Damian Lillard is an auto-play for me tonight. He draws an elite matchup against the Pelicans and he is going to play 40+ minutes in a must-win game. The only way Lillard doesn’t have a big game is if this turns into a blowout and he doesn’t see minutes in the fourth quarter. Of the three games, this is the game that worries me the most when it comes to a blowout, but I’m willing to overlook it given the upside for both of these teams. C.J. McCollum had a mediocre Game 1. While the Pelicans have struggled against wing players, Jrue Holiday is an excellent defender. With so much exposure to Lillard, I will naturally have less McCollum than the field. Evan Turner is viable once again, especially if Maurice Harkless is ruled out. Turner played 30 minutes in Game 1 and finished with 22 fantasy points.

Al-Farouq Aminu only took seven shots in the series opener, which was a bit puzzling. Look for him to be more aggressive on both ends of the floor tonight. When he sees a couple shots fall, all of his game benefits. He’s only $4,800 on FanDuel and I don’t expect his ownership to be very high. I don’t like to make predictions, but I’m calling for a 35+ fantasy point outing from Aminu in this one. Ed Davis and Zach Collins both played decent minutes in Game 1, but I’m not crazy about either here. Davis is the preferred target of the two. Jusuf Nurkic is near the top of my list of favorite tournament targets tonight. He only played 24 minutes in the opener, which was a bit strange given the fact that he was playing 28-30 minutes regularly down the stretch of the regular season. I expect the Blazers to right their wrongs tonight and give him a full complement of minutes.

Notable Injuries

Maurice Harkless (Questionable)

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 (1 of 6)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Evan Turner (if Harkless is out), Al-Farouq Aminu (FD), Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Evan Turner (if Harkless is active), Al-Farouq Aminu (DK), Jusuf Nurkic (Cash), C.J. McCollum, Ed Davis