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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-24 18:26:25

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Philadelphia 76ers
memphisnba Vegas Total 194.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Sprd -10.0 Vegas Sprd 10.0
Team Proj. 102.3 Team Proj. 92.3
Team Pace 96.60 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Jeff Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Kendall Marshall Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 16 9 29 29 25 Opp. Season 23 7 22 17 8
Opp. Last 7 30 29 27 18 18 Opp. Last 7 4 5 18 17 17

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 15-14 — Road: 6-8 — Last 10: 4-6

The Grizzlies have not played well since adopting the small ball approach. They have lost six of their last ten games. The good news is that they head to Philadelphia to get their free win tonight against the Sixers. The Grizzlies are listed as 10-point favorites in this matchup with their implied team total set at 102.3 points. Not only is that the second highest total on the board, but it is also 6.3 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

As you can see, the Sixers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They play at a relatively quick pace, they are one of the worst defenses in terms of efficiency, and they have the fifth worst rebounding differential in the NBA. We should give a healthy boost to the Grizzlies as a whole tonight. Even though this game has the potential to turn into a blowout, it’s not as big of a concern on a night with only four games.

The key injury to monitor tonight is Tony Allen. He is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Here is the minutes distribution for the Grizzlies’ wing players in the last five games that Allen has missed: Matt Barnes (32.5), Jeff Green (37.3), and Courtney Lee (34.6).

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

There are basically two viable options at center tonight – Gasol and Hassan Whiteside. Gasol has by far the better matchup of the two, as the Sixers are a bad rebounding team that also leads the NBA in blocked shots allowed. Gasol is the safest center on the board and he comes into tonight’s game in good form, averaging 36 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 36.0

Matt Barnes

Since entering the starting lineup for Zach Randolph, Barnes has only had one bad outing. He got into foul trouble against the Bulls and ended up playing only 22 minutes. He has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his other four starts at power forward.

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 13.7
Min/Game — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley

Conley is one of those players that you never get overly excited about rostering. He has been playing well recently and he draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, but as usual, the point guard position is loaded with options tonight.

FD — $6,400 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Jeff Green

Green has played more minutes than Matt Barnes recently, but Barnes has been far more productive. Green is still worth a look in this matchup though, as he should be able to get some easy buckets in transition against this bad Sixers’ defense. It’s not the worst idea to play Barnes and Green together on FanDuel.

FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $5,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 37.3
FP/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 22.9

Courtney Lee

This pick hinges on the health of Tony Allen. If he is unable to suit up again tonight, Lee could see around 35 minutes of playing time. He isn’t the most efficient fantasy option on the board, but should be able to reach value against the lowly Sixers.

FD — $3,900 — SG
DK — $4,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 19.0

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 1-28 — Home: 1-11 — Last 10: 0-10

The Sixers have lost ten games in a row. The sad part is that this losing streak isn’t even close to their 18-game losing streak that they had at the beginning of the season. The Sixers are listed as 10-point underdogs tonight against the Grizzlies. Philadelphia has an implied team total of 92.3 points, which is the lowest of the eight teams in action tonight.

The Grizzlies have not been nearly as effective on the defensive end this season. They had been a top-five defense in each of the previous three seasons, but are now mediocre at best. The issue tonight isn’t the matchup, it’s the Sixers. There are too many players splitting minutes in the backcourt (Isaiah Canaan, T.J. McConnell, Kendall Marshall, and Tony Wroten) and their one reliable fantasy option (Jahlil Okafor) is matched up against Marc Gasol.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks Toronto Raptors
dallasnba Vegas Total 195.5 torontonba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 98.70 Team Pace 96.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 2 20 7 10 19 Opp. Season 18 5 10 28 6
Opp. Last 7 20 6 7 5 28 Opp. Last 7 2 26 24 16 13

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 15-12 — Road: 8-7 — Last 10: 5-5

The Mavericks have played well at times this season, but they have only won five of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Mavericks are only projected to score 95.8 points tonight, which is five points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Raptors have been excellent defensively this season. They have slowed their pace of play this year and it has really shown in their defensive statistics. They are a borderline top five defensive team, which is why the Mavericks have such a low team total tonight. The other issue with the Mavericks is that they are finally starting to get healthy. A well-balanced offense with a deep rotation is not what we are looking for in daily fantasy basketball. Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, and Zaza Pachulia will all see around 30 minutes, but none stand out as must plays tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chandler Parsons

Parsons is coming off of a season-high 32 minutes. It was also one of his best games of the season, as he had 34 fantasy points. This may be one of the last opportunities to target him at this price point. A lot of smart people in the industry are starting to play Parsons and he is worth a look tonight against the Raptors.

FD — $4,300 — SF
DK — $4,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 17.0
Min/Game — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 17.7

Toronto Raptors

Record: 17-12 — Home: 8-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Raptors have only won five of their last ten games, but they are 8-5 at home with a 17-12 record overall. They are 4-point favorites tonight against the Mavericks. Toronto has an implied team total of 99.8 points, which is the third highest on the board tonight.

The Mavericks have been as mediocre of a defense as you are going to find in the NBA. They are ranked right around the league average in each of the four statistics listed above. It should come as no surprise that the Raptors team total is nearly identical to their average points scored per game this season.

Jonas Valanciunas has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, which means Bismack Biyombo will draw another start at center. DeMarre Carroll is listed as questionable, but it doesn’t sound like he is going to be in the lineup for this one. If he is ruled out, James Johnson and Terrence Ross would continue to see extended playing time.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. He may be a little fired up, after getting ejected in the game against the Kings on Sunday night. Lowry has had a tremendous season, averaging 38.6 fantasy points per game and his price has come down a bit on DraftKings. He draws an exploitable matchup against Deron Williams and the Mavericks.

FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $8,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 38.6 | Last Five Games: 31.8

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan seems a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but he is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 39.7 fantasy points per contest. He offers the deadly combination of both a high floor and a high ceiling.

FD — $8,100 — SG
DK — $7,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 38.1
FP/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 39.7

James Johnson

Johnson has filled in nicely in his last two starts, scoring 25 and 26 fantasy points. The most promising statistic is that he played 32 minutes in each game. Assuming he draws another start tonight for the injured DeMarre Carroll, he makes an excellent value play at small forward.

FD — $3,900 — SF
DK — $3,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 22.3
FP/Game — Season: 10.4 | Last Five Games: 18.8

Secondary Plays

Bismack Biyombo

Biyombo is the best punt option at center tonight. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 27.3 fantasy points in 31.7 minutes per contest. He is listed as a secondary option because of his matchup. Zaza Pachulia and the Mavericks are ranked sixth against centers this season.

FD — $4,600 — C
DK — $5,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 8.8 | Last Five Games: 8.2
Min/Game — Season: 23.5 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 27.3

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Detroit Pistons Miami Heat
detroitnba Vegas Total 194.0 miaminba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 95.0 Team Proj. 99.0
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 95.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 3 3 24 3 7 Opp. Season 6 10 2 24 10
Opp. Last 7 26 18 6 10 7 Opp. Last 7 28 4 2 29 9

Detroit Pistons

Record: 16-12 — Road: 6-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pistons have won seven of their last ten games and are now 16-12 overall. Tonight they head to Miami to take on one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Detroit has an implied team total of only 95 points. Not only is that the second lowest team total on the board, but it is also 6.8 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

As mentioned above, the Heat have been elite defensively this season. They like to slow the pace of the game down and they have one of the best defensive anchors in the NBA in Hassan Whiteside. This is not a great matchup for the Pistons. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris should both log 35+ minutes tonight, but there are better fantasy options at their respective positions.

Brandon Jennings looked good in his D-League stint and it sounds like he could be active for the Pistons tonight. He won’t make a big impact right away though, as Stan Van Gundy said that he will only play if the Pistons’ guards get into foul trouble.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

When I first broke down the slate, I had Drummond listed as a secondary play tonight. However, after making lineups, it’s hard to spend the entire salary cap without using Drummond. For that reason, he is an elite play, because we have to spend up on someone tonight. He has played well in his last five games, averaging 44 fantasy points per contest. This is also a matchup where he should be able to rack up rebounds, as neither he nor Whiteside ever stray far from the rim.

FD — $9,600 — C
DK — $9,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 44.0 | Last Five Games: 44.0

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

Jackson’s recent minutes and production are inflated by the four-OT game against the Bulls the other night. He has still been an excellent play this season though, averaging 34.5 fantasy points per game. There are better plays in the points per dollar sense, but I will have some Jackson exposure in tournaments tonight.

FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $7,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 29.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 41.7

Miami Heat

Record: 16-10 — Home: 12-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive 12-5 record at home. They are listed as 4-point favorites tonight against the Pistons in what is expected to be a defensive battle. Miami has an implied team total of 99 points, which is the fifth highest of the eight teams in action tonight.

The Pistons points allowed per game was hurt by their four-OT game against the Bulls. They have been a top ten defense all season and we shouldn’t let a single game skew our perception. This is not a great matchup for the Heat, but their team total is nearly identical to their average points scored per game this season. Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic have both been playing well, but once again, the point guard and shooting guard positions are stacked tonight.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside

I always love driving the Whiteside bandwagon when he is getting a full complement of minutes. His playing time is trending upward, as he has averaged 34.1 fantasy points in 30.5 minutes in his last five games. Whiteside played well against Drummond and the Pistons earlier this season, scoring 15 points, grabbing 13 rebounds, and blocking three shots.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 34.1

Chris Bosh

Bosh’s production has been down a bit recently, but his price has dropped a bit too far. He should be the chalk play at power forward tonight, especially considering his matchup against Ersan Ilyasova. The Pistons have been tough on all positions this season with the exception of power forward.

FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 29.8

Secondary Plays

Luol Deng

Small forward is a surprisingly deep position tonight. Matt Barnes and Jeff Green are in play from Memphis and James Johnson offers great value from Toronto. Deng is still worth a look though, as he has been averaging close to 35 minutes per game recently.

FD — $4,600 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 23.6

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Los Angeles Lakers Denver Nuggets
lalakersnba Vegas Total 203.5 denvernba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Anthony Brown “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne
Opp. Season 29 30 12 20 23 Opp. Season 30 27 19 23 30
Opp. Last 7 27 24 5 19 5 Opp. Last 7 23 22 20 20 29

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 4-23 — Road: 2-16 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers have lost eight of their last ten games and are only 2-16 on the road this season. They are expected to be competitive tonight though, as they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. Of the four games on the schedule tonight, this is the only one with a total more than 196 points. The Lakers are projected to score 99.3 points tonight, which is 2.7 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

There are only a handful of defenses that have been worse than the Nuggets this season. They have been a good rebounding team, but are ranked in the bottom eight in most defensive categories. The Lakers have been a tough team to rely on this season, but there are a number of plays that deserve consideration tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE – However, all three of the Lakers’ guards can be considered borderline elite plays.

Secondary Plays

Kobe Bryant

Bryant has been very productive recently, but he is dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. I’ll label him as a ‘tournament-only’ play tonight. This is a game where Bryant could potentially shoot the ball 20 times, but there are safer plays at shooting guard for cash games.

FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $6,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 35.4

Jordan Clarkson

There is little edge between Clarkson, Lou Williams, and D’Angelo Russell. The one argument that you can make is that Clarkson has averaged nearly two more minutes per game than the other two in their last five outings. The matchup is obviously great for all three, as the Nuggets do not defend opposing backcourts well.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $5,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 24.7

D’Angelo Russell

Russell will likely be the lowest owned of the three Lakers’ guards, but he has actually been the most productive over the last five games, averaging 28.5 fantasy points. He should see close to 30 minutes tonight in a favorable matchup against the Nuggets.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $5,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 21.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 28.5

Louis Williams

Williams has played well since being inserted into the starting lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26.5 fantasy points in 30.4 minutes per contest. Once again, all three Lakers’ guards are in play, but it’s hard to recommend playing one over the other two, as all three are nearly identical from a projection standpoint.

FD — $5,300 — SG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 26.5

Denver Nuggets

Record: 11-16 — Home: 5-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets draw the most favorable matchup on the board tonight. They host the Lakers, who are arguably the worst defense in the NBA. Denver has an implied team total of 104.3 points in this matchup. Not only is that total the highest on the board, but it is also 5.6 points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

As mentioned above, the Lakers have been awful defensively this season. They have been as bad on defense as Kobe Bryant has been shooting from the three-point line. We can safely give the Nuggets a sizable boost as a whole. They are the top team to target in this four game slate.

Emmanuel Mudiay has already been ruled out for tonight, which means Jameer Nelson will draw another start at point guard. The other injury situation to monitor is Danilo Gallinari. He left the Nuggets’ last game early with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, give a healthy boost to Will Barton and Gary Harris.

Elite Plays

Will Barton

Barton already sees a nice boost with Emmanuel Mudiay out and he would see an even bigger boost if Danilo Gallinari is unable to play. Barton has played very well recently, averaging 34.8 fantasy points in 31.5 minutes in his last five games. He also draws one of the best matchups in all of basketball.

FD — $6,400 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 34.8

Jameer Nelson

I have been on the Nelson bandwagon in every one of his starts. He has played at least 33 minutes in three of his four starts and he has scored at least 22 fantasy points in all four. He should see minutes in the mid-30’s tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards.

FD — $4,600 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried

The days of trusting Faried in cash games may be over, but I will give him a hard look tonight against the Lakers, who don’t rebound or defend the paint well. I obviously prefer Chris Bosh over Faried, but don’t mind using both. If he sees 30+ minutes tonight, he should be able to reach value against this awful Lakers’ defense.

FD — $6,500 — PF
DK — $6,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 27.7
FP/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 29.2

Gary Harris

If Danilo Gallinari is ruled out, we can safely bump Harris up to an elite play. His production doesn’t jump off of the page, but he should see minutes in the low to mid-30’s tonight against the Lakers.

FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.4 | Last Five Games: 13.3
Min/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 16.1

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious