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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-08 03:13:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Charlotte Hornets
brooklynnba Vegas Total 219.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread 10.5 Vegas Spread -10.5
Team Total 104.3 Team Total 114.8
Pace +/- 0.0 Pace +/- 5.2
Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Randy Foye Bojan Bogdanovic Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 28 22 8 23 Adj. DvP 30 29 30 30 27
DRPM -0.73 0.16 2.17 0.53 -0.30 DRPM -0.72 -1.86 -3.11 0.26 -0.05

Brooklyn Nets

We have a quiet three game slate on tap in the association, so if you get bored tonight, feel free to tune into the Fantasy Sports Writing Awards show on SiriusXM Radio. I am up for a few different awards, including basketball writer of the year. It’s an honor to be nominated and I have to give a huge thanks to everyone that reads the Grind Down.

The Nets are by far the worst team in the NBA and they have a paltry road record of 2-22. They come into tonight’s contest as 10.5-point underdogs against the Hornets, who are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. On a full slate, the Nets would be an easy fade as a whole, but we have limited choices at each and every position tonight. Brooklyn has a higher implied total than two other teams on the board tonight and make a lot of sense in tournaments.

Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged more minutes than Isaiah Whitehead over the last eight games, but neither player is relevant in DFS. They both have low floors and low ceilings, which is a bad combination to have. With Caris LeVert out, we should see minutes in the mid to upper-20s for Sean Kilpatrick and Bojan Bogdanovic. These are my favorite two plays from the Nets this evening, but both are better suited as tournament plays. We could potentially make an exception for Kilpatrick as a cash game play on FanDuel at a price of only $4,000. Trevor Booker has shown some nice upside since his move to the bench, but power forward is surprisingly one of the most loaded positions in the slate. Brook Lopez draws a decent matchup against the Hornets’ frontcourt that could be without Cody Zeller. I slightly prefer Nikola Vucevic at a similar price point, but will have some shares of Lopez in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,500 $3,200 0.67 22.1 -4.7 14.8 -7.6 19.3% 0.7% 18 -0.73
Randy Foye $3,500 $3,000 0.61 18.6 2.9 11.3 -1.2 16.8% -6.2% 28 0.16
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,200 $4,200 0.75 26.7 1.6 20.0 -2.5 21.5% 1.3% 22 2.17
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,200 $4,400 0.84 21.6 1.7 18.2 1.3 18.7% 0.1% 8 0.53
Brook Lopez $7,600 $7,000 1.10 29.4 1.0 32.3 -2.8 28.2% -0.9% 23 -0.30
Sean Kilpatrick $4,000 $4,300 0.82 26.7 -1.0 21.8 -2.9 23.9% -0.7% 28 N/A
Trevor Booker $5,200 $5,000 0.97 26.3 -5.3 25.6 2.5 17.6% 9.2% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Bojan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost seven games in a row, which may have prompted the trade with the Bucks. They sent Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes to Milwaukee in exchange for Miles Plumlee. The trade doesn’t have a big impact on fantasy production, although it does open up a few minutes in the Hornets’ frontcourt. Charlotte should be able to snap their losing streak tonight against the Nets, who are the only team in the NBA with a longer losing streak. This is basically the best possible matchup for fantasy production, as the Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is nearly ten points above their season average.

Kemba Walker has struggled in his last few games, but should be considered the top point guard in this three game slate. The Nets have struggled to defend all five positions on the floor and are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Walker typically plays better at home and could see around 35 minutes if the game stays relatively close. Nicolas Batum is also an elite play tonight. Despite his recent struggles, he is still averaging 32.5 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 23.6%. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist hasn’t played more than 29 minutes in four straight games, but may be asked to play minutes in the low 30s if Cody Zeller is out and the Hornets are forced to play small. Marco Belinelli is my favorite tournament play in the slate, as he should see 25-30 minutes off the bench against the worst defensive team in basketball. The Hornets’ frontcourt plays hinge on the availability of Zeller. If he is ruled out, Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky would both see 30+ minutes of action and become close to must starts against a Nets’ team that is ranked 28th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,900 $8,500 1.08 33.8 -3.0 36.5 -11.0 30.7% -3.5% 30 -0.72
Nicolas Batum $7,400 $7,600 0.94 34.5 -4.0 32.5 -6.0 23.6% -0.6% 29 -1.86
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,200 $5,100 0.77 29.5 -4.2 22.8 -5.0 14.2% 0.5% 30 -3.11
Marvin Williams $5,400 $4,800 0.77 27.8 6.3 21.3 5.7 17.3% -1.8% 30 0.26
Frank Kaminsky $4,500 $4,700 0.81 24.2 2.5 19.5 4.9 21.0% 2.9% 27 -0.05
Marco Belinelli $4,000 $3,900 0.70 24.7 1.1 17.4 0.3 18.7% -1.0% 30 N/A
Miles Plumlee $4,200 $3,000 0.61 9.9 8.1 6.0 11.6 14.9% -7.5% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marco Belinelli (GPP), Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams (if Zeller is out)

Secondary Plays – Marco Belinelli (Cash), Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams (if Zeller is active)

Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Houston Rockets
orlandonba Vegas Total 223.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 117.3
Pace +/- 2.9 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 23 28 25 24 Adj. DvP 27 16 17 10 22
DRPM 1.14 -1.22 1.28 -0.62 0.00 DRPM -0.79 -0.62 -0.87 0.54 1.78

Orlando Magic

The Magic have been on the losing end of a lot of blowouts this season, which doesn’t exactly bode well for their chances of keeping tonight’s game close. However, with only three games on the schedule and with two of them featuring double-digit spreads, it’s hard to factor in a potential blowout. The Magic are one of the only teams in the NBA with a better record on the road than at home, so maybe they can play well tonight in Houston. The matchup is certainly exploitable from a fantasy standpoint, as the Rockets are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. Orlando has the third highest implied total in the slate and it is 6.2 points above their season average.

Elfrid Payton has struggled in his last three games and draws the second worst individual matchup that a point guard can have. He will square off against Patrick Beverley, whose DRPM only trails that of Chris Paul for point guards this season. Payton is cheap enough on DraftKings that you can give him a look in tournaments, but he’s an easy fade in cash games. Evan Fournier has played 32 and 36 minutes in his last two games and draws an elite matchup against James Harden. The best part is that the Magic will put Aaron Gordon on Harden defensively, so Fournier can expend most of his energy on the offensive end of the floor. The last time the Magic played the Rockets, Gordon played 36 minutes and scored 36 fantasy points. It should be safe to bump up his minute projection tonight, especially with Jeff Green out. Serge Ibaka will be a popular play at power forward and for good reason. The Rockets are ranked 25th against the position and Ibaka is averaging 30 fantasy points in his last three games. Nikola Vucevic is my favorite target at center. While he struggles with consistency, he has more upside than any center in the slate and his price is under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,600 $5,700 0.92 29.4 0.4 27.0 -7.0 25.6% -1.1% 12 1.14
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,600 0.78 32.7 -0.2 25.4 -1.4 24.1% -0.9% 23 -1.22
Aaron Gordon $4,600 $4,600 0.76 27.7 0.8 21.1 -5.4 19.6% -2.9% 28 1.28
Serge Ibaka $5,900 $6,200 0.92 30.4 1.0 28.0 2.0 20.1% -0.6% 25 -0.62
Nikola Vucevic $6,900 $6,800 1.13 28.4 1.9 32.2 -1.0 25.1% 0.5% 24 0.00
Bismack Biyombo $3,500 $3,100 0.76 23.9 -4.0 18.3 -6.6 12.8% -0.8% 24 N/A
D.J. Augustin $3,500 $3,000 0.71 20.6 1.2 14.5 -2.6 21.9% -2.2% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have lost five of their last ten games, but still sit at 37-17 overall. They have played well at home this season and should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Magic. They come into the game as 11.5-point favorites with an implied total of 117.3 points. Not only is that the highest in the slate, but it is also 3.2 points above their season average. The home team is generally able to control the tempo in the NBA, so look for this to be a fast-paced game. This is certainly an exploitable matchup, as the Magic are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebounding differential this season.

Patrick Beverley isn’t typically a point guard that is on my radar thanks to the wealth of options we usually have at his position. However, in a three game slate, I’m certainly fine looking his way in cash games or as a pivot off of Yogi Ferrell (who will be higher owned) in tournaments. James Harden is close to a lock in cash games on FanDuel. There are very few players to spend up on and there is enough value that you can basically take whoever you want at the top. Harden is an easier fade on DraftKings at $13,300, which may be the highest salary we have seen for any player this season. Trevor Ariza is a decent mid-range option at small forward, but there are a few players that I prefer over him. The same goes for Ryan Anderson. As I mentioned above, power forward is loaded with options tonight. Clint Capela is my favorite GPP target at center. He is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last three games and the Magic are ranked 22nd against centers. Eric Gordon should get overlooked tonight at shooting guard, but he’s my third favorite shooting guard from this game alone.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,600 $5,200 0.82 31.1 0.6 25.4 -3.3 16.0% 0.7% 27 -0.79
James Harden $12,700 $13,300 1.48 36.6 1.4 54.0 1.7 38.7% 0.4% 16 -0.62
Trevor Ariza $5,600 $5,300 0.72 34.5 -0.2 24.9 -2.1 14.5% -2.6% 17 -0.87
Ryan Anderson $5,400 $5,000 0.71 30.8 0.7 21.9 -0.6 17.0% 0.1% 10 0.54
Clint Capela $5,100 $5,300 1.05 23.4 4.2 24.7 4.5 18.9% -1.0% 22 1.78
Eric Gordon $5,500 $5,400 0.82 30.5 0.3 25.1 -1.0 23.8% 0.5% 16 N/A
Montrezl Harrell $4,300 $3,400 0.90 19.4 -1.4 17.5 -2.2 17.6% -3.5% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela (Cash), Patrick Beverley, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson

Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Dallas Mavericks
portlandnba Vegas Total 205.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- -5.3 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 5 3 3 6 Adj. DvP 11 13 19 23 26
DRPM -2.41 0.01 -0.09 -0.39 0.92 DRPM -2.19 -1.67 -0.79 0.72 1.02

Portland Trail Blazers

There is certainly some give and take in tonight’s slate. If you want to target the game with the closest spread, you are sacrificing points off of the over/under. The Blazers are only 1-point underdogs against the Mavericks, but this game’s over/under is at least 14 points fewer than the other two games. Dallas typically isn’t a matchup that we like to load up players against, as they are ranked 29th in pace of play and fourth in points allowed per game. The Blazers have an implied total of only 102 points, which is 5.5 points below their season average.

Damian Lillard is listed as probable for tonight’s game, but he is fully expected to play. He will battle against Yogi Ferrell, who has come out of nowhere in the last couple of weeks. Even though Dallas is ranked first against point guards on the season, Ferrell has a DRPM of -2.41, which is one of the worst in the NBA. I slightly prefer Kemba Walker over Lillard, but will have shares of both tonight in tournaments. C.J. McCollum is strictly a DraftKings play tonight, where he is $900 cheaper than he is on FanDuel. He’ll likely draw the defense of Wesley Matthews, which isn’t a great matchup overall. Evan Turner has been playing big minutes since being inserted into the starting lineup, but there are better options at his price point. Mason Plumlee is really the only other Blazers’ player of note. The Mavericks are ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season and ownership at center is going to gravitate toward Nikola Vucevic and Brook Lopez.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,600 $8,600 1.12 35.7 -0.6 39.9 -0.3 32.1% -0.9% 1 -2.41
C.J. McCollum $8,200 $7,300 1.00 34.5 -3.4 34.3 0.3 28.0% 0.1% 5 0.01
Evan Turner $4,800 $5,000 0.77 26.3 0.2 20.3 -0.7 20.3% 3.6% 3 -0.09
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.70 12.7 1.2 8.9 1.7 14.3% 3.1% 3 -0.39
Mason Plumlee $6,400 $5,900 1.04 28.1 -0.4 29.2 -6.2 20.2% -0.4% 6 0.92
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,300 $5,200 0.73 28.7 3.7 21.1 2.3 15.0% -1.1% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum (DK)

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum (FD), Evan Turner, Mason Plumlee

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have had as many injuries as any team in the NBA this season, but they have somehow managed to stay afloat. They have won six of their last ten games and are now only three games behind the Nuggets for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Dallas draws one of the best possible matchups tonight, as they square off against the Blazers at home. On the season, Portland is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Mavericks may have the second lowest implied total in the slate, but it is 5.4 points above their season average.

It’s pretty incredible how Yogi Ferrell has come up from the D-League and been this dominant. He was awarded by the Mavericks with a two-year contract, which is great to see. He has played at least 35 minutes and has scored at least 24 fantasy points in all five of his starts with Dallas. With Deron Williams doubtful tonight, we can expect Yogi Bear to play as many minutes as he can handle once again. His matchup against Damian Lillard isn’t one to shy away from. Seth Curry has struggled with consistency, but we know the type of upside he offers when Williams is out of the lineup. Curry is a viable play in all formats tonight. Wesley Matthews has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last four games against his former team. He always seems to go under-owned and he may actually be the safer play of the two between he and Curry. Harrison Barnes should be a popular play at small forward tonight. His price is cheap and the matchup is an exploitable one. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging over 28 minutes in his last three games and we always like to target bigs against the Blazers. He makes a great tournament play on a night where we have so many options at power forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $6,100 $6,000 0.72 22.4 14.9 16.0 14.9 22.8% -0.7% 11 -2.19
Seth Curry $6,100 $5,900 0.72 27.8 4.8 20.0 7.7 20.1% 3.3% 13 -1.67
Wesley Matthews $5,800 $5,800 0.68 35.3 -0.4 24.1 3.5 20.4% -0.5% 19 -0.79
Harrison Barnes $6,900 $6,400 0.83 35.8 -1.3 29.6 -5.0 24.9% -6.2% 23 0.72
Dirk Nowitzki $5,400 $5,000 0.92 25.4 2.8 23.5 -4.0 24.0% -6.5% 26 1.02
Dwight Powell $3,700 $3,200 0.88 19.1 -4.3 16.8 0.3 15.7% 3.7% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki (Cash), Dwight Powell (GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious