NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -8, 203 Over/Under
- New York Knicks Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
| New York Knicks | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 203.0 | | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.50 | Team Pace | 98.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 20 | 18 | 10 | 24 | Opp. Season | 10 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 22 | |
New York Knicks
Record: 16-19 — Road: 7-11 — Last 10: 5-5
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.9 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.5 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4
The Knicks have won five of their last ten games, but are still three games below .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in one of three games that has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Knicks have an implied team total of 97.5 points, which is right around their average points per game this season.
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.1 (18 of 30)
The Hawks have been a little better defensively over the last couple of weeks, but they are still ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 18th in fantasy points allowed per game. Lou Amundson and Cleanthony Early are both out tonight, but neither player makes much of a fantasy impact anyway. The Knicks are littered with secondary plays tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Louis Amundson (Out)
Cleanthony Early (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony
Anthony has been productive this season, but not to the point that justifies his hefty price tag. He draws a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks. He’ll likely be defended by a combination of Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha. Small forward is a thin position tonight, which does make Anthony a secondary play.
FD — $8,600 — SF
DK — $8,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 24.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 36.8
Arron Afflalo
Afflalo hasn’t been very productive recently, but his minutes continue to trend upward. Over his last five games, he has averaged 32.6 minutes per contest. On a night with very little value, Afflalo is worth a look at shooting guard.
FD — $4,600 — SG
DK — $4,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Jose Calderon
Calderon has quietly put together a nice five-game stretch, averaging 21.9 fantasy points in 27.9 minutes per contest. His price has come way down across the industry and he basically only needs 20 fantasy points to reach value.
FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $4,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.4 | Last Five Games: 11.2
Min/Game — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 27.9
FP/Game — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Robin Lopez
Lopez is another Knicks’ player whose minutes are trending in the right direction. Over his last five games, he has averaged 24.9 fantasy points in 27.4 minutes per contest. He should see a heavy dose of minutes tonight against the large frontcourt of the Hawks.
FD — $4,100 — C
DK — $4,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 21-14 — Home: 12-6 — Last 10: 7-3
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.9 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6
The Hawks have won seven of their last ten games and currently sport a 12-6 record at home. Atlanta is listed as 8-point favorites tonight against the Knicks. The Hawks are projected to score 105.5 points, which is the third highest team total on the board. It is also 3.6 points higher than their average points per game this season.
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.1 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.7 (10 of 30)
The Knicks have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between tenth and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The real concern here isn’t the matchup, it is whether or not the Knicks can keep this game within striking distance. That said, it’s hard to factor in potential blowouts with only four games on the schedule tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Tiago Splitter (Out)
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap
Draymond Green will be a popular choice at power forward, but I’m giving Millsap a slight edge on a points-per-dollar basis. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 42.9 fantasy points per contest.
FD — $8,700 — PF
DK — $8,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 38.0 | Last Five Games: 42.9
Jeff Teague
Teague is a nice mid-range point guard option tonight. The only thing lacking with Teague is his minutes upside, however, he has averaged 31.5 over his last five games. He has also averaged 32 fantasy points per game during that stretch.
FD — $6,400 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 32.0
Kent Bazemore
Most people will see Bazemore’s price tag and immediately think that he is overpriced. However, if you take the name out of it, the production completely justifies the price tag. He has averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game this season and 26.5 over his last five games.
FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Secondary Plays
Al Horford
Horford is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but sitting at a very playable $6,600 on DraftKings. There are a number of viable plays at center tonight, making it a good time to use two centers on DK. Horford has played well over his last five games, averaging 32.8 fantasy points.
FD — $7,200 — C
DK — $6,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 17.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 32.8
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -8, 200.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Bucks Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
- Chicago Bulls Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Mirotic-Gibson-Gasol
| Milwaukee Bucks | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 200.5 | | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.30 | Team Pace | 98.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | Proj. Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Nikola Mirotic | Taj Gibson | Pau Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 23 | Opp. Season | 15 | 16 | 27 | 24 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 26 | 25 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 14-22 — Road: 5-15 — Last 10: 4-6
- Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5
The Bucks have not played well on the road this season. They are only 5-15 away from home. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Bulls in Chicago. The Bucks are only projected to score 96.3 points, which is the lowest implied team total on the board.
- Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.5 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.1 (21 of 30)
The Bulls play at an above-average pace, but they are still an above-average defense. On the season, they are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. Jerryd Bayless rolled the same ankle that kept him out of 11 games last night against the Spurs. He is listed as questionable, but is more likely on the doubtful side. Greivis Vasquez remains out.
- Injury Watch:
Jerryd Bayless (Questionable)
Greivis Vasquez (Out)
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams
This pick hinges on whether or not Jerryd Bayless is able to play. Assuming he sits out, MCW becomes an elite play at point guard. In 12 games without Bayless this season, MCW has averaged 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 blocks/steals. He also draws a nice matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 25th against point guards.
FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 32.4
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe
Monroe is a little overpriced on FanDuel, but is a borderline elite play on DraftKings. The biggest knock on Monroe has been his minutes. He has only averaged 30.4 on the season. I project him to play 30-32 minutes tonight against the Bulls, with the potential for more given how big the Bulls frontcourt is.
FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $6,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 29.1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Khris Middleton may be a popular name today, but Antetokounmpo draws the better matchup of the two. Middleton will be locked up with Jimmy Butler, while Giannis will match up against Nikola Mirotic. He is a little too inconsistent to use in cash games, but he could make an intriguing tournament option.
FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $6,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 28.6
Chicago Bulls
Record: 20-12 — Home: 14-5 — Last 10: 6-4
- Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6
The Bulls have won six of their last ten games to improve to 20-12 on the season. Chicago is listed as 8-point favorites tonight against the Bucks with their team total set at 104.3 points. Their team total is 2.6 points higher than their average points per game this season.
- Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.9 (23 of 30)
The Bucks have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The key injury to keep our eye on here is Derrick Rose. He is listed as questionable, after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. If he is out, give a sizable boost to Jimmy Butler and Aaron Brooks.
- Injury Watch:
Derrick Rose (Questionable)
Joakim Noah (Out)
Mike Dunleavy (Out)
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler
Butler would see a nice boost if Derrick Rose is unable to play tonight. Even if Rose plays, Butler is a borderline elite play. He has the highest floor of any shooting guard on the board and he is coming off of a historical second-half performance against the Raptors in which he scored 40 points.
FD — $8,300 — SG
DK — $8,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 21.7
Min/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 37.9
FP/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 39.4
Pau Gasol
In what seems to be a theme today, Gasol is a bit overpriced on FanDuel and a bit underpriced on DraftKings. There are plenty of viable center options on DK tonight, but Gasol is my favorite of the bunch. He has played well all season and he has averaged 39.4 fantasy points per game in his last five.
FD — $8,700 — PF
DK — $7,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 39.4
Secondary Plays
Taj Gibson
Gibson is a borderline elite play on FanDuel tonight. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 24.9 fantasy points. He should see minutes in the low-30’s tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.
FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.0 | Last Five Games: 10.0
Min/Game — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Nikola Mirotic
Mirotic is one of the most inconsistent fantasy options in the entire NBA. His minutes and production are volatile on a nightly basis, making him a great tournament play and a risky cash game play.
FD — $4,700 — SF
DK — $5,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 25.2
Bobby Portis
Portis is still not seeing the minutes that he deserves, but they are trending upward. Over his last five games, he has averaged 19.1 fantasy points in 22.2 minutes per contest. He has plenty of upside in a matchup against the Bucks and he could see extra run if the game turns into a blowout.
FD — $3,900 — PF
DK — $4,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 22.2
FP/Game — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -5.5, 214 Over/Under
- Sacramento Kings Proj. Starters – Collison-Anderson-Gay-Acy-Cousins
- Dallas Mavericks Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Sacramento Kings | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 214.0 | | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.40 | Team Pace | 97.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Darren Collison | James Anderson | Rudy Gay | Quincy Acy | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj. Starter | Jose Juan Barea | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 7 | Opp. Season | 27 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 29 | 12 | 29 | 12 | |
Sacramento Kings
Record: 14-20 — Road: 5-11 — Last 10: 5-5
- Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.6 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3
The Kings picked up an impressive win over the Thunder last night. They are still six games below .500 on the season, but they appear to be moving in the right direction. The Kings have an implied team total of 104.3 points tonight against the Mavericks, which is tied for the fourth highest on the board.
- Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.3 (13 of 30)
The Mavericks have been an average defense for most of the season. They are ranked between 13th and 21st in all four of the defensive categories listed above. There are two injuries that we need to monitor here – Omri Casspi and Ben McLemore are both listed as questionable. Casspi missed last night’s game with a back injury and McLemore left last night’s game with back spasms.
- Injury Watch:
Omri Casspi (Questionable)
Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable)
Ben McLemore (Questionable)
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins
Cousins had a monster outing against the Suns and he backed it up with an even bigger outing against the Thunder last night. Given the way the salaries shake out on the different sites, I prefer to use him on FanDuel where the other centers are a bit overpriced. On DraftKings, Cousins is listed as a power forward, which is a position littered with options tonight.
FD — $9,700 — C
DK — $10,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 29.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 43.3 | Last Five Games: 42.1
Rajon Rondo
Editor’s Note: Rajon Rondo has been ruled OUT for tonight.
The revenge narrative is always a fun one to explore, but there are only a few players that really seem to feed off of it. Rondo is one of them. As a member of the Mavericks, he had his worst season of his career. However, he did have 29 points, six rebounds, and five assists against the Celtics. Rondo and the Mavericks split up on bad terms and Rondo should be pumped for this one.
FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $8,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 16.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 37.3 | Last Five Games: 36.2
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay
Gay was one of the many disappointments last night. He struggled to get anything going offensively against the Thunder, even though the Kings were playing most of the game without Omri Casspi and Ben McLemore. The price is still nice though, making Gay an interesting option tonight against the Mavericks.
FD — $7,000 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 25.6
Darren Collison
Collison is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He has quietly produced at a high level this season, especially recently. Over his last five games, he has averaged 26.3 fantasy points. His ownership will be low and he provides good upside for the price.
FD — $5,400 — PG
DK — $5,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 26.3
Marco Belinelli
If Omri Casspi and/or Ben McLemore are out, Belinelli would become an elite play. He has played well recently, averaging 20 fantasy points in 26.6 minutes per game. He played 34 minutes last night against the Thunder.
FD — $3,800 — SG
DK — $3,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Dallas Mavericks
Record: 19-15 — Home: 10-6 — Last 10: 6-4
- Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.5 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.8 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 8.3
The Mavericks have won six of their last ten games and are now 19-15 overall. They draw the most favorable matchup on the board tonight. Dallas is projected to score 109.8 points against the Kings. Not only is that the second highest team total on the board, but it is 8.3 points higher than their average points per game this season.
- Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.3 (29 of 30)
The Kings have been downright awful defensively this season. They are ranked dead last in points allowed per game and 29th in fantasy points allowed per game. Deron Williams is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he did practice yesterday. If he is active, there are too many players splitting minutes in the Mavericks’ backcourt. If Williams is unable to play, J.J. Barea could be a nice punt option at point guard.
- Injury Watch:
Deron Williams (Questionable)
Devin Harris (Probable)
Elite Plays
Dirk Nowitzki
With so many players splitting minutes in the Mavericks’ backcourt, Nowitzki is really the only option that stands out as an elite play tonight. His price has come down a bit recently and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Kings are ranked 28th against power forwards this season.
FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $6,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 23.6
Min/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Secondary Plays
Zaza Pachulia
Pachulia is an interesting tournament play tonight. He has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 33.1 fantasy points per game. The biggest concern here is potential foul trouble. He and DeMarcus Cousins are both physical players and Cousins is one of the best in the game at drawing fouls.
FD — $6,600 — C
DK — $5,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 33.1
Chandler Parsons
If you have used Parsons in any of his last three games, then you have been burned by him. His production has been down recently, but the minutes have been there. If he sees minutes in the low-30’s tonight against the Kings, he will have a great shot of reaching and exceeding value. This is the perfect type of game for Parsons, as it will largely be played in transition.
FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $5,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 22.5
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -13, 215 Over/Under
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Los Angeles Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Williams-Bryant-Nance Jr
| Golden State Warriors | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 215.0 | | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 114.0 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.50 | Team Pace | 98.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj. Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Louis Williams | Kobe Bryant | “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 25 | Opp. Season | 18 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 27 | |
Golden State Warriors
Record: 32-2 — Road: 15-2 — Last 10: 8-2
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 113.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 114.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1
The Warriors are 32-2 on the season and they are finally healthy. Stephen Curry and Harrison Barnes were both back in the lineup last night. The Warriors head to Los Angeles tonight to take on the Lakers. They are listed as 13-point favorites with an implied team total of 114 points.
- Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.7 (30 of 30)
The Lakers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 26th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The question here isn’t about the matchup, it’s about the Lakers ability to keep this game close. With the Warriors playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they may look to limit their starters minutes tonight. I will be avoiding Stephen Curry, as he played 32 minutes last night and you have to think the Warriors are going to play it safe with him.
- Injury Watch:
Festus Ezeli (Questionable)
Leandro Barbosa (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Draymond Green
Green is coming off of three straight triple-doubles. Three straight triple-doubles! He is one of the top plays on the board tonight, but you have to work to get him into your lineup, as there aren’t many value plays. Obviously, the upside is still there with Green. Plus, if he is getting close to another triple-double, his teammates will do everything in their power to get him it.
FD — $9,700 — PF
DK — $10,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 40.4 | Last Five Games: 49.8
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson
Thompson has been on fire in his last five games, averaging 35.4 fantasy points in 38.9 minutes per game. The issue is twofold – we can’t project him to play 39 minutes tonight and his price has come up across the industry. The matchup is one of the best on the board, but Jimmy Butler is the safer play of the two.
FD — $7,600 — SG
DK — $7,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 38.9
FP/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 35.4
Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 8-27 — Home: 4-9 — Last 10: 4-6
- Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.0 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3
The Lakers have lost six of their last ten games and have fallen to 8-27 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Warriors, but at least the game will be played at a fast pace. The Lakers are projected to score 101 points, which is 4.3 points higher than their average points per game this season.
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.5 (14 of 30)
The Warriors have one of the best defenses in the NBA, but their pace of play puts them right around the league average in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. There are two injuries to keep our eye on tonight – Kobe Bryant and D’Angelo Russell are both listed as questionable. If both players are active, the Lakers can be avoided altogether. However, if Bryant and/or Russell are out, Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams could both be worth a look.
- Injury Watch:
Kobe Bryant (Questionable)
D’Angelo Russell (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson is really the only Lakers’ player on my radar tonight and that is only if Kobe Bryant and/or D’Angelo Russell is unable to play. If they are both out, Clarkson could log heavy minutes in an uptempo game against the Warriors.
FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 27.7
