NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, October 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-18 00:39:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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NOTE: Starting Wednesday, October 18th, Notorious will provide a Grind Down update video for Premium subscribers, which will be featured in our new CourtReport LiveBlog. Get updated analysis from one of the best in DFS (much closer to lineup lock), by starting a FREE 7-day trial today!

Legend & FAQ

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		212.0					Vegas Total		212.0
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.3					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Gordon Hayward	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford		Projected Starters	Derrick Rose	Dwyane Wade	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love
Opponent DRPM	-2.53	-0.63	1.57	1.37	1.93		Opponent DRPM	-2.16	-0.10	0.13	N/A	1.59

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the first NBA Grind Down of the season. If you are a loyal reader, thanks for coming back! If you are new to RotoGrinders and/or this article, welcome. Before we dive into the slate, I highly recommend that everyone read the 2017-18 Team Previews article by Aaron Hendrix. It will save you hours of research (I know first-hand), as it breaks down each team’s additions, losses, and fantasy outlook for the season. After a few games, I’ll start adding a lot more statistics to the player tables.

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Out)
Aron Baynes (Probable)

The Celtics made it to the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago, but after losing to the Cavaliers in five games, Danny Ainge decided to blow this roster up. A team that loses core pieces such as Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, and Kelly Olynyk would normally get worse, but Boston was able to add Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and Marcus Morris. They also picked up a very nice player in the draft in Jayson Tatum. The Celtics open up their season with a chance at revenge. Speaking of revenge, I’m all kinds of excited to see a salty Kyrie Irving take on his former team.

Most of the teams that LeBron James has played on throughout his career have been in the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. That wasn’t the case a year ago, as the Cavaliers were ranked 20th and 22nd in those two categories. They picked up one versatile defender in Jae Crowder, but three bad ones in Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose, and Dwyane Wade. If the Cavaliers play at a league average pace again, we shouldn’t be surprised if they end up being a below-average defense, especially if they start Kevin Love at center. Even though the Celtics come into this game as road underdogs with the lowest implied total (104.5 points) of the slate, we should still consider this an exploitable matchup.

Let’s start with the obvious — if you aren’t playing Kyrie Irving against his former team, you are trying to get too cute. If you want to be underweight compared to the field given his projected ownership, that’s fine, but everyone needs to have some Kyrie tonight. Even if you throw out the revenge narrative, he gets to square off against the likes of Derrick Rose (-2.53 DRPM) and Jose Calderon (-0.53 DRPM), who are two below-average defenders. In seven games without LeBron James in the last three seasons, Irving averaged 44 fantasy points per game, which was seven higher than his average with LeBron on the floor. Irving has looked explosive in the preseason and has a massive chip on his shoulder. Do me a favor and play Irving tonight.

On the wing, we have two of the best values of the entire slate. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are both priced close to the bare-minimum across the industry and they should both see big roles on opening night with Marcus Morris out. We may want to temper our expectations with Tatum in the early going, but Brown is poised for a breakout season. He’s not a great shooter, but he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and barring foul trouble, his minutes should be secure. Gordon Hayward will be making his first start as a member of the Celtics. While I’m expecting another solid season, it may take some time for him to adjust to the new offense, his new teammates, and his new role. When it comes to small forward, I find myself paying up or paying down. Marcus Smart is not a core play here, but he’s a sneaky tournament option that will have naturally lower ownership since he’s coming off the bench. Al Horford isn’t going to be a focal point of the offense, but he’s going to have a lot of big fantasy games. He’s a good passer, he can knock down open jump shots, and he’s the best rebounder Boston has at the moment.

Cleveland Cavaliers Defense (2016-17)

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (19 of 30)

Note: The stats in the player tables are from the preseason.

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown

Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (borderline elite play), Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Al Horford

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Isaiah Thomas (Out)
LeBron James (Probable)
Kevin Love (Probable)

The Cavaliers took down the Warriors two seasons ago, but were clearly out-matched in the finals a year ago. Until LeBron James moves to the Western Conference or until he retires, it’s hard to bet against his team making it back to the finals. The big loss in the offseason was obviously Kyrie Irving. We all knew that Kyrie and LeBron had a strained relationship, but there is clearly no love lost between these two. Cleveland did bring back Isaiah Thomas in the trade, but he’s going to be out until January at the earliest. The other additions were Jae Crowder, Dwyane Wade, and Derrick Rose. This is still a lineup that can compete in the East, but relying on Wade and Rose to stay healthy is a risky proposition.

A year ago, the Celtics were ranked right around the league average in pace of play, points allowed per game, and defensive efficiency. They weren’t exactly an ideal matchup, especially considering how many blowouts they were in. I have to think the blowouts were more random than an actual trend, but keep an eye on it early in the year. The best way to attack Boston last season was down low. I expect that to be the case again this year with a starting frontcourt of Jayson Tatum and Al Horford. Boston had the fourth worst rebounding differential of any team in the league and they didn’t do anything in the offseason to cure their rebounding woes.

Derrick Rose is not a player that I would buy in a season long league. If you expect him to play 82 games, then I have some magic beans to sell you. It’s only a matter of time before an injury or two creeps up. He has a 25-year old’s game and is playing in a 40-year old’s body. Luckily, we don’t have to project his season-long value when it comes to DFS. All we care about is what he brings to the table on opening night. With Isaiah Thomas sidelined, Rose will start at point guard and could easily end up playing 30+ minutes. He has a favorable matchup against Kyrie Irving (-2.16 DRPM) and he’s clearly underpriced on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft. Even though both point guards in the Rockets/Warriors game are enticing, a lot of my lineups are going to start with the Rose/Irving combination.

LeBron James is still very good at basketball. With Thomas on the shelf, he may have to carry a little more of the load offensively. He is currently dealing with an ankle injury and the Cavaliers say that they don’t know if he’ll be ready for tonight’s game, but they are being coy. Nobody expects him to miss this game, especially since he’ll have a little revenge narrative in his corner as well. It will be interesting to see the rotation with the Cavaliers’ shooting guards. They have two that can’t play defense (Dwyane Wade and Kyle Korver) and two that are one dimensional (J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert). Wade is my favorite of the group on opening night, but I plan to be underweight on him compared to the field. As mentioned above, I want to attack the Celtics with the opposing frontcourt. Jae Crowder gets to face his former team and Kevin Love should dominate the glass on both ends of the floor. I see both as elite plays at their respective positions. Tristan Thompson is an intriguing tournament play off the bench. He is a sneaky double-double candidate, even if he only plays 20-25 minutes.

Boston Celtics Defense (2016-17)

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (27 of 30)

Note: The stats in the player tables are from the preseason.

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade, Tristan Thompson

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Golden State Warriors
			Vegas Total		231.5					Vegas Total		231.5
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		111.0					Implied Team Total		120.5
			Pace Projection +/-		3.5					Pace Projection +/-		3.8
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Stephen Curry	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	Zaza Pachulia
Opponent DRPM	0.24	-0.91	1.35	5.08	3.61		OpponentDRPM	2.71	-1.81	1.54	-0.16	1.25

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Tarik Black (Out)

First of all, big props to those that grind preseason NBA DFS. Even bigger props to the experts here on RotoGrinders that were shelling out advice. Personally, I’ve never tried any preseason DFS sport. When I don’t play DFS, I naturally don’t watch the games as closely. Basically, I’m trying to say that I am excited to watch this Rockets’ team in action because I have yet to watch a full game of theirs in the preseason. The big acquisition was obviously Chris Paul, which is a game-changer for a team that ran a James Harden create and kick style of offense last season. They also picked up two of the best perimeter defenders in Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (aka Monte Muto from the Morning Grind Podcast last season) and P.J. Tucker. The two biggest losses for the Rockets in the offseason were Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams.

The Rockets open their season as 9.5-point underdogs against the defending champion Warriors. Golden State is basically bringing back the same squad from a year ago, so their statistics are a little more predictive than most teams. Last season, the Warriors played at the fourth fastest pace, yet they held their opponents to the 11th fewest points per game. They were incredible efficient on the defense side of the ball. The large number of blowouts didn’t help the fantasy production for their opponents either. Even though this isn’t a great matchup for the Rockets on paper, this should be an incredibly fast paced game. The more possessions there are in a game, the more opportunities there are for points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals.

You may hear some talk about a potential blowout here. While that’s always something to keep in mind in NBA DFS, it applies more to big slates. With only two games on the schedule, we can’t afford to fade players from either game. Chris Paul seems to be fitting in nicely in Mike D’Antoni’s uptempo offense and luckily there are enough shots to go around for everyone. Strangely enough, Paul has only squared off against Stephen Curry one time in the last two years. While both are viable, I do prefer the two points guards in the Celtics/Cavaliers game. James Harden production hasn’t really skipped a beat with Paul playing by his side. In the preseason, he averaged 1.28 fantasy points per minute. He’s had mixed results against Golden State recently, but has topped 60 fantasy points twice in their last four meetings. He’s clearly the top shooting guard of the slate when talking about his total fantasy point projection.

With Paul and Harden soaking up so much attention, there are going to be a lot of open shots for the rest of this offense. Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson should all post some of their best true shooting numbers of their careers. The issue with the Rockets is always the same — we never quite know which shooter is going to catch fire. The trio I just mentioned was very inconsistent on a game by game basis, which makes them better tournament plays, given the volatility. There are times when I completely avoid true centers against the Warriors. Golden State loves to play their “death” lineup with Draymond Green at the five and a lot of opposing centers can’t stick with him. I’m not too concerned about Clint Capela though, as he has scored 43, 31, and 31 fantasy points in his last three games against the Warriors. He’s firmly in play on FanDuel. With the multi-position eligibility on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, he’s not a core play.

Golden State Warriors Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (10 of 30)

Note: The stats in the player tables are from the preseason.

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela (FD)

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela (DK & FDRFT), Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Draymond Green (Probable)

The Warriors are the only team on the schedule tonight that didn’t have a complete overhaul in the offseason. After dominating everyone in their path on their way to their second championship in three years, they didn’t need to make any big moves. Their biggest move was re-signing Andre Iguodala, who has been such a good fit for this team. Golden State also brought in two scorers in Nick Young and Omri Casspi, but the focal point will remain on the big four — Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green.

The Warriors open their season as 9.5-point favorites with the highest implied team total (120.5 points) on the board. When the Rockets brought in Mike D’Antoni last season, everyone expected them to be the league’s worst defense. They weren’t terrible from an efficiency standpoint (17th), but they played at such a fast pace that their opponents averaged more possessions per game. This in turn resulted in the Rockets being ranked 26th in points allowed per game. Houston is going to be one of the best matchups for fantasy production this season, especially in games that we expect to stay close and especially when they are facing another fast paced team like the Warriors.

When it comes to this offense, there really isn’t a lot to breakdown. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Kevin Durant are all amazing basketball players that can all dominate in any matchup. The frustrating part is trying to predict which one, two, or three of them are going to have those breakout performances each night. Strictly from a matchup perspective, Thompson and Green standout like a sore thumb. Curry will be locked up against Chris Paul, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and Kevin Durant will have his hands full with Trevor Ariza. I’m not saying that you can’t play Curry and Durant, but I like to target matchups against James Harden and Ryan Anderson a little more. This is a blowup spot for both Thompson and Green. As for the role players of the Warriors, I’m going to take a wait and see approach.

Houston Rockets Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)

Note: The stats in the player tables are from the preseason.

Elite Plays – Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry (GPP), Kevin Durant (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (Cash), Kevin Durant (Cash)