2017-18 NBA DFS Season - Team Previews
It seemed like just yesterday that Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry were hoisting the NBA Championship trophy above their heads after defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2016-2017 title. Yet here we are with another NBA season right around the corner with opening night this coming Tuesday (October 17th) when perhaps the four biggest favorites to battle for this seasons title take the court. The revamped Boston Celtics and Kyrie Irving will visit Irving’s former team the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Houston Rockets, with Chris Paul now running the point, will go to Golden State to take on the defending champions. It’s only two games but that hasn’t stopped the sites from rolling out some big contests as both FanDuel and DraftKings have million dollar opening night GPPs.
While NBA DFS is probably the easiest to predict on a night-to-night basis, the beginning of the season (as well as the end when teams have clinched playoff spots and start resting players) is the point where there is the highest volatility due to uncertainty of roles for players and the rotations coaches are going to utilize. A lot has happened this off season so let’s take a look at a quick summary of each teams off season moves, who is expected to play a role in their team this season, and a brief DFS perspective for their team in terms of pace, expectations, and coaching style/philosophy. We’ll update this after final roster cuts have been made in regards to projected starters and key bench players. One note – the projected starters are just that… projections, and they could differ from what actually rolls out on opening night for the respective teams.
Atlanta Hawks
Head Coach: Mike Budenholzer
2016-2017: W-L 43-39 Pace 99.83 (10th) OffRtg 102.30 (27th) DefRtg 103.10 (4th)
3 year avg: W-L 50-32 Pace 98.49 OffRtg 103.83 DefRtg 100.87
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 25.5
Key Acquisitions – Dewayne Dedmon, Marco Belinelli, Miles Plumlee, John Collins
Key Losses – Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Projected Starters – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova, Dewayne Dedmon
Key Bench Players – Malcolm Delaney, Marco Belinelli, Miles Plumlee, John Collins
DFS Slant: The Hawks are in full on rebuilding mode and Vegas expects them to be one of the worst teams in the league after seeing Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. leave. The offense is going to run through Dennis Schroder making him a viable DFS option given expected usage while rookie John Collins could end up playing a big role on this team before the season is over. The team was 4th overall last season in defensive efficiency and while there should be some regression there they still aren’t going to be a team we want to relentlessly attack as players like Bazemore, Prince, and Dedmon are all capable defenders. They were 10th in pace last season and one thing to keep an eye on early this season is if Budenholzer decides to push the tempo even more or slow things down to try and minimize the damage. If he does the former, then we’ll want to target opposing teams more as there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points to accumulate.
Boston Celtics
Head Coach: Brad Stevens
2016-2017: W-L 53-29 Pace 99.32 (12th) OffRtg 108.60 (8th) DefRtg 105.50 (12th)
3 year avg: W-L 47-35 Pace 99.62 OffRtg 104.73 DefRtg 102.83
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 55.5
Key Acquisitions – Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, Jayson Tatum
Key Losses – Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk
Projected Starters – Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Gordon Hayward, Al Horford
Key Bench Players – Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes
DFS Slant: Many are already crowning the Celtics the Eastern Conference Champions after adding Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris a top five draft pick in Jayson Tatum but it’s probably best to keep expectations in check early in the season as the team meshes and finds chemistry. They have all the tools to be a night in and night out fantasy juggernaut although Brad Stevens is always careful about overworking his players so we won’t see a lot of 35+ minute nights from key players. They are a good, but not great, defensive team, and losing the likes of Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, and Kelly Olynyk will hurt the unit some. Expect some high-scoring games this year and don’t be afraid to utilize the opposing team players by themselves or as part of a game stack.
Brooklyn Nets
Head Coach: Kenny Atkinson
2016-2017: W-L 20-62 Pace 103.58 (1st) OffRtg 101.90 (28th) DefRtg 108.00 (23rd)
3 year avg: W-L 26-56 Pace 98.64 OffRtg 101.57 DefRtg 107.17
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 27.5
Key Acquisitions – D’Angelo Russell, Timofey Mozgov, DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe, Jarrett Allen
Key Losses – Brook Lopez, Justin Hamilton, Andrew Nicholson
Projected Starters – D’Angelo Russell, Jeremy Lin, Rondae-Hollis Jefferson, Allen Crabbe, Timofey Mozgov
Key Bench Players – Isaiah Whitehead, Sean Kilpatrick, Trevor Booker, DeMarre Carroll, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen
DFS Slant: This team had the fastest pace in the league last season but were one of the worst teams in terms of efficiency both offensively and defensively. Utilizing opposing players against Brooklyn will be a profitable play as not much is expected to change in this department. Be wary of utilizing players on the Nets though as no player on their team will log extensive minutes and as we all know, minutes = money in NBA DFS. D’Angelo Russell is interesting given the high pace of the team and if Atkinson changes his tune and gives him substantial playing time, he could be a fantasy darling.
Charlotte Hornets
Head Coach: Steve Clifford
2016-2017: W-L 36-46 Pace 97.85 (19th) OffRtg 106.40 (14th) DefRtg 106.10 (14th)
3 year avg: W-L 39-43 Pace 96.99 OffRtg 103.03 DefRtg 102.97
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 42.5
Key Acquisitions – Dwight Howard, Malik Monk, Michael Carter-Williams,
Key Losses – Marco Belinelli, Miles Plumlee
Projected Starters – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dwight Howard
Key Bench Players – Michael Carter-Williams, Malik Monk, Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller
NOTE – Batum suffered an elbow injury and will miss up to two months as he recovers. Jeremy Lamb will be the likely starter until then.
DFS Slant: The Hornets brought in Howard, which should hurt the playing time of Zeller and Kaminsky while MCW to back up Kemba but his arrival should have minimal impact unless Walker goes down to injury. There’s nothing to love about this team from a DFS perspective – there will be days where they are worth targeting given a favorable match up but they are a bit slower paced (19th) and a middle of the pack team in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. One situation to take advantage of early on is the increased roles Jeremy Lamb and rookie Malik Monk will have while Nicolas Batum recovers from an injury.
Chicago Bulls
Head Coach: Fred Hoiberg
2016-2017: W-L 41-41 Pace 97.72 (20th) OffRtg 104.60 (21st) DefRtg 104.50 (6th)
3 year avg: W-L 44-38 Pace 97.11 OffRtg 103.80 DefRtg 103.30
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 21.5
Key Acquisitions – Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Quincy Pondexter, Lauri Markkanen
Key Losses – Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams, Dwyane Wade
Projected Starters – Kris Dunn*, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic, Paul Zipser, Robin Lopez
Key Bench Players – Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Quincy Pondexter, Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis, Cristiano Felicio
NOTE – Jerian Grant will be the likely starter at the beginning of the season while Kris Dunn recovers from an injury. Zach LaVine is also recovering from an injury and will not be available to start the season.
DFS Slant: Like the Hawks, the Bulls are in rebuilding mode and have a paltry expected Vegas win total of just 21.5 wins. That’s what happens when you lose Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo, and Dwyane Wade in the offseason and are turning to the likes of Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine to lead the offense, both of whom will miss the start of the season due to injury. The Bulls were a slow-paced inefficient offense that was good defensively last season, but that should change with defensive stalwart Butler not on the team any longer. There should be some value to be had though in terms of offensive production, especially from Nikola Mirotic who should have to shoulder most of the offensive load early on and the team will definitely be one to attack from the other side. Don’t sleep on rookie Lauri Markkanen as he could be an early producer given the injury and team situation.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Head Coach: Tyronn Lue
2016-2017: W-L 51-31 Pace 98.38 (16th) OffRtg 110.9 (3rd) DefRtg 108.0 (22nd)
3 year avg: W-L 54-28 Pace 96.21 OffRtg 108.9 DefRtg 104.80
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 53.5
Key Acquisitions – Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Jeff Green, Jose Calderon, Cedi Osman
Key Losses – Kyrie Irving, Deron Williams
Projected Starters – Isaiah Thomas*, Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder, LeBron James, Kevin Love
Key Bench Players – Derrick Rose, Jose Calderon, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson
NOTE – Isaiah Thomas will miss extended time at the beginning of the season. Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon should see the majority of the minutes at the point guard position.
DFS Slant: The Cavaliers restructured their team considerably this offseason after their defeat to the Warriors in the Finals and it started with the trade of Kyrie for Thomas and Crowder which was followed by the additions of veterans Wade, Rose, and Green. There’s going to be a lot of mouths to feed on this team and while LeBron is always going to be a viable option given his ability to stuff the stat sheet, it’s going to be interesting to see what kind of rotation the team employs, how often they rest players, and who gets the usage outside of Lebron when the team is on the court. The team was below average (22nd) in terms of defensive efficiency last season and while Crowder does help in that regard, not much should change there meaning we can continue to utilize opposing players against them.
Dallas Mavericks
Head Coach: Rick Carlisle
2016-2017: W-L 33-49 Pace 94.16 (29th) OffRtg 103.70 (23rd) DefRtg 106.30 (15th)
3 year avg: W-L 42-40 Pace 96.00 OffRtg 105.23 DefRtg 104.77
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 35.5
Key Acquisitions – Josh McRoberts, Dennis Smith Jr.
Key Losses – None
Projected Starters – Dennis Smith Jr., Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki
Key Bench Players – Yogi Ferrell, Dwight Powell, Nerlens Noel, Dorian Finney-Smith
DFS Slant: Yawn. This team is old, slow, and boring and offers little in terms of relevance in both real-life basketball and DFS. Everyone and their brother are in love with rookie Dennis Smith Jr. given his preseason performance and he’ll be a popular play but caution should be employed given the team was 2nd to last in pace last season and was one of the most inefficient offenses (23rd) in the league. He’s obviously an option given the role he is expected to have on this team and his price should be affordable to start the season so if you’re going to ride him now is the time to do so. Outside of Smith, however, there is no one that is going to be worth considering on a nightly basis – just keep an eye on scratches and injuries for potential value spots. It’s also a team you typically don’t want to attack too much because of their slow pace as that will mean fewer possessions and opportunities for fantasy points.
Denver Nuggets
Head Coach: Mike Malone
2016-2017: W-L 40-42 Pace 100.70 (7th) OffRtg 110.00 (5th) DefRtg 110.50 (29th)
3 year avg: W-L 34-48 Pace 99.18 OffRtg 104.77 DefRtg 107.47
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 45.5
Key Acquisitions – Trey Lyles, Roy Hibbert, Paul Millsap
Key Losses – Danilo Gallinari
Projected Starters – Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Key Bench Players – Emmanuel Mudiay, Jameer Nelson, Will Barton, Kenneth Faried, Trey Lyles, Juancho Hernangomez, Mason Plumlee
DFS Slant: Now we’re talking fantasy goodness. Top 10 pace. Top 10 offensive efficiency. 2nd worst defensive efficiency. The Nuggets lost Gallinari but more than upgraded with the addition of Paul Millsap (who should improve that poor defensive efficiency somewhat). The major concern with this team isn’t that they score fantasy points, it’s whether they have too much depth for their own good. Their bench is super deep which could lead to limited playing time for all involved. Obviously games against the Nuggets are ones to attack given their pace and poor defense but figuring out which Denver players are going to get 30+ minutes in a game will be the determining factor in fantasy success from their side. Jokic is a beast who should benefit from the new scoring changes on FanDuel and Chandler/Harris both are capable of putting up big games as starters. It’ll be interesting to see Millsap’s role in the starting five – a wait and see approach over the first few weeks is probably best and anytime Jokic sits, he’s going to be a clear-cut target.
Detroit Pistons
Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy
2016-2017: W-L 37-45 Pace 97.09 (24th) OffRtg 103.30 (25th) DefRtg 105.30 (11th)
3 year avg: W-L 38-44 Pace 96.55 OffRtg 102.97 DefRtg 104.30
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 38.5
Key Acquisitions – Avery Bradley, Langston Galloway, Anthony Tolliver
Key Losses – Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Projected Starters – Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris, Stanley Johnson, Andre Drummond
Key Bench Players – Ish Smith, Langston Galloway, Luke Kennard, Jon Leuer, Anthony Tolliver, Boban Marjanovic
DFS Slant: The Pistons are a slow-paced defensive-minded team that did see KCP and Marcus Morris leave the team but added a above-average player in Avery Bradley who should get more fantasy relevance in Detroit where he is likely to see a uptick in playing time. Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond are viable in certain match ups and Ish Smith is a option if Jackson sits, but for the most part this is a team to avoid. Oh and if you don’t follow Pistons beat writer Rod Beard – you should. He’s a very DFS friendly beat and we need to encourage this type of reporting.
Golden State Warriors
Head Coach: Steve Kerr
2016-2017: W-L 67-15 Pace 102.24 (4th) OffRtg 113.20 (1st) DefRtg 101.10 (2nd)
3 year avg: W-L 69-13 Pace 101.53 OffRtg 111.80 DefRtg 100.07
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 67.5
Key Acquisitions – Nick Young, Omri Casspi
Key Losses – Ian Clark, James McAdoo
Projected Starters – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Zaza Pachulia
Key Bench Players – Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, Nick Young, Omri Casspi, David West, JaVale McGee
DFS Slant: Yawn. This time is essentially the same as last season other than adding Swaggy P to give them some depth at the guard position. They are fantasy relevant on any night and Draymond will receive a significant boost on FanDuel with his defensive prowess. While they are 2nd in defensive efficiency, they are still a team you can counter with opposing players due to their pace (4th in the league). That said, however, Vegas lines are crucial to study here as if the Warriors blow out a team they have a propensity to ride their bench late in games which is a negative impact on their starters fantasy value. Look for situations where players will get mispriced due to the balanced scoring they exhibit. There was a time last season where Curry was dirt cheap due to relinquishing the scoring over to Durant and became a great value as a result. That’s the type of thing to hone in on with this team as well as situations where a player will miss a game thus increasing the remaining core four’s usage and fantasy upside.
Houston Rockets
Head Coach: Mike D’Antoni
2016-2017: W-L 55-27 Pace 102.54 (3rd) OffRtg 111.80 (2nd) DefRtg 106.40 (18th)
3 year avg: W-L 51-31 Pace 100.62 OffRtg 107.17 DefRtg 104.17
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 55.5
Key Acquisitions – Chris Paul, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Darrun Hilliard, P.J. Tucker, Tarik Black
Key Losses – Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker, Lou Williams
Projected Starters – Chris Paul, James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela
Key Bench Players – Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Nene Hilario, Tarik Black
DFS Slant: This team might have passed the Spurs as the team most likely to give the Warriors a run for their money with the addition of Chris Paul who will lose some of his fantasy value due to the sky high usage that James Harden has. The team was 3rd in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency last season and that shouldn’t change this season. The rest of the starting lineup and bench will have their moments in the sun and against other high-paced teams will be viable options, especially if their prices remain affordable. D’Antoni tends to ride his starters a bit later than most coaches so negative correlation due to blowouts isn’t as big a concern as it is for teams like the Warriors or Spurs.
Indiana Pacers
Head Coach: Nate McMillan
2016-2017: W-L 42-40 Pace 98.15 (18th) OffRtg 106.20 (15th) DefRtg 106.30 (16th)
3 year avg: W-L 42-40 Pace 97.55 OffRtg 103.13 DefRtg 102.47
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 31.5
Key Acquisitions – Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph, Darren Collison
Key Losses – Paul George, Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis. C.J. Miles
Projected Starters – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Myles Turner
Key Bench Players – Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, Glenn Robinson III, Domantas Sabonis, Al Jefferson
DFS Slant: The Pacers are a shell of their 2016-2017 team with the departure of George, Teague and key role players Ellis and Miles. Of the current group, Oladipo and Turner have the most fantasy relevance and both have shown significant potential when given opportunity in the past. There’s not much to love here though as the team is middle of the pack in every metric and will be working with a unit that has little to no time together to start the season.
Los Angeles Clippers
Head Coach: Doc Rivers
2016-2017: W-L 51-31 Pace 98.22 (17th) OffRtg 110.30 (4th) DefRtg 105.80 (13th)
3 year avg: W-L 53-29 Pace 97.72 OffRtg 108.87 DefRtg 103.23
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 43.5
Key Acquisitions – Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker, Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Willie Reed, Milos Teodosic
Key Losses – Chris Paul, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, J.J. Redick, Marreese Speights, Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford
Projected Starters – Patrick Beverley, Austin Rivers, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari, DeAndre Jordan
Key Bench Players – Milos Teodosic, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker, Wesley Johnson, Willie Reed
DFS Slant: Losing a future Hall of Fame player like Paul is never going to be easy and it’ll have a negative impact overall on the Clippers success. They also lost their shooting guard duo of Redick and Crawford which should mean all the run Doc’s son Austin can possibly handle. The addition of Beverley, Gallinari, and Lou Williams helps soften the loss of those three and Blake Griffin should be able to put up some big numbers… if he can stay healthy that is. Like with most other defensive minded players, DeAndre Jordan should see a bump in value on FanDuel due to the additional value of blocks and steals.
Los Angeles Lakers
Head Coach: Luke Walton
2016-2017: W-L 26-56 Pace 100.80 (6th) OffRtg 103.40 (24th) DefRtg 110.60 (30th)
3 year avg: W-L 21-61 Pace 98.37 OffRtg 100.93 DefRtg 109.30
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 33.5
Key Acquisitions – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andrew Bogut, Lonzo Ball, Brook Lopez
Key Losses – Nick Young, D’Angelo Russell, Tarik Black, Lou Williams
Projected Starters – Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Larry Nance, Brandon Ingram, Brook Lopez
Key Bench Players – Jordan Clarkson, Tyler Ennis, Julius Randle, Luol Deng, Corey Brewer, Ivica Zubac, Andrew Bogut
DFS Slant: The Lakers days of tanking might be coming to an end as their younger players develop and they bring in Rookie of the Year frontrunner Lonzo Ball to man the point. Add in a veteran wing like KCP and a proven scorer in Brook Lopez and it’s easy to understand why Vegas projects them to increase their win total by over seven games from last season. That being said they are still expected to be weak defensively (dead last in defensive efficiency last season) and are a fast-paced team (6th last season) so they are a team you’ll want to attack with opposing players. Ball is going to be a popular option to begin the season and should have viability as long as he is affordable and if Brook Lopez can actually stay on the court for more than 30 minutes (something the Nets were not willing to do), he could become a huge fantasy asset as his production on a point per minute basis has always been outstanding.
Memphis Grizzlies
Head Coach: David Fizdale
2016-2017: W-L 43-39 Pace 94.74 (28th) OffRtg 104.70 (19th) DefRtg 104.50 (7th)
3 year avg: W-L 47-35 Pace 94.87 OffRtg 103.47 DefRtg 103.27
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 37.5
Key Acquisitions – Tyreke Evans, Ben McLemore, Ivan Rabb, Dillon Brooks
Key Losses – Zach Randolph, Tony Allen, Vince Carter, Troy Daniels
Projected Starters – Mike Conley, Ben McLemore, JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons, Marc Gasol
Key Bench Players – Andrew Harrison, Tyreke Evans, Ivan Rabb, Jarrell Martin, James Ennis III, Brandan Wright, Dillon Brooks
DFS Slant: The Grizzlies are a team in transition after seeing veterans Randolph, Allen, and Carter leave and while they added Tyreke Evans, there still isn’t much to like from a DFS perspective for a team that prides itself on being a slow-paced, defensive minded team. They were 28th in pace last season and 7th in defensive efficiency and have never had anyone blow up fantasy wise other than an occasional big game from Mike Conley or Marc Gasol. They are also a team to avoid utilizing opposing players against due to their pace and defensive capabilities. Things probably aren’t going to change much from last year, making this team one to avoid except on the smallest of slates.
Miami Heat
Head Coach: Erik Spoelstra
2016-2017: W-L 41-41 Pace 97.59 (21st) OffRtg 105.20 (16th) DefRtg 104.10 (5th)
3 year avg: W-L 42-40 Pace 95.53 OffRtg 103.63 DefRtg 103.13
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 43.5
Key Acquisitions – Kelly Olynyk, DeAndre Liggins, Bam Adebayo
Key Losses – Luke Babbitt, Willie Reed, Josh McRoberts
Projected Starters – Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Rodney McGruder, Kelly Olynyk, Hassan Whiteside
Key Bench Players – Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo
DFS Slant: The Heat are somewhat similar to the Grizzlies in that they like to run a slow pace (21st in pace last season) and are a elite defensive unit (5th last season). They didn’t lose anyone of merit and the addition of Kelly Olynyk adds some solid depth. Hassan Whiteside will have tremendous FanDuel upside as he’s averaged a minimum of .6 steals and 2.1 blocks per game over the last three seasons. Dragic is an excellent option whenever the Heat face an up tempo team as he thrives in those situations typically and there will often be times where the Heat players will provide some excellent value due to a relatively shallow rotation being utilized by Spoelstra.
Milwaukee Bucks
Head Coach: Jason Kidd
2016-2017: W-L 42-40 Pace 96.73 (26th) OffRtg 106.90 (13th) DefRtg 106.40 (19th)
3 year avg: W-L 39-43 Pace 96.59 OffRtg 103.20 DefRtg 103.80
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 47.5
Key Acquisitions – James Young, Gerald Green, D.J. Wilson, Brandon Rush
Key Losses – Michael Beasley
Projected Starters – Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Thon Maker
Key Bench Players – Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic, D.J. Wilson, Greg Monroe, John Henson, Brandon Rush
DFS Slant: The Bucks continue to be one of the emerging teams in the East and Vegas expects them to continue to improve. Unfortunately for them, the strides Jabari Parker took last season were derailed when he suffered a devastating injury and he’s not expected to return until February at the earliest. Speaking of benefiting from FanDuel, Giannis should be one of the top fantasy players in the league (he averaged a combined 3.5 steals and blocks last season) and is only getting better as he matures as the focal point of the Bucks offense. The one frustrating thing with the team is that Jason Kidd likes to slow down the pace (26th) minimizing the opportunities for Giannis. The Bucks DFS relevance revolves around him but Brogdon and Middleton will both be relevant at times throughout the season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Head Coach: Tom Thibodeau
2016-2017: W-L 31-51 Pace 97.11 (23rd) OffRtg 108.10 (10th) DefRtg 109.10 (26th)
3 year avg: W-L 25-57 Pace 97.22 OffRtg 104.07 DefRtg 108.60
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 48.5
Key Acquisitions – Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford, Aaron Brooks, Justin Patton
Key Losses – Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, Ricky Rubio, Omri Casspi
Projected Starters – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns
Key Bench Players – Tyus Jones, Aaron Brooks, Jamal Crawford, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng, Nemanja Bjelica, Justin Patton
DFS Slant: This team is expected to make the biggest jump by far of any team as Vegas has them projected for 48.5 wins, a improvement of over 15 games from their final W-L record last season. That’s what adding a stud like Jimmy Butler will do and when you throw in more than adequate players like Teague, Gibson, and Crawford it’s easy to see why everyone is so high on them. Timberwolves Head Coach Tom Thibodeau is well liked in the DFS industry because he runs a very shallow rotation which means we typically know where the minutes and production is going to come from. Returning stars Wiggins and Towns will continue to be legitimate fantasy threats on a nightly basis along with Butler. The team was one of the worst in the league last season defensively (26th) but that should improve significantly with the addition of Butler and Gibson to the starting five. This is a team to target often but it will be interesting to see how two high usage guys like Teague and Butler impact Wiggins and KAT – keep an eye on that over the first few weeks and adjust accordingly.
New Orleans Pelicans
Head Coach: Alvin Gentry
2016-2017: W-L 34-48 Pace 100.09 (9th) OffRtg 103.30 (26th) DefRtg 104.90 (9th)
3 year avg: W-L 36-46 Pace 97.57 OffRtg 103.97 DefRtg 105.63
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 39.5
Key Acquisitions – Frank Jackson, Rajon Rondo, Ian Clark, Tony Allen
Key Losses – Tim Frazier, Quincy Pondexter
Projected Starters – Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, Dante Cunningham, DeMarcus Cousins
Key Bench Players – Ian Clark, E’Twaun Moore, Tony Allen, Alexis Ajinca
DFS Slant: The Brow/Boogie combo will head into their first full season together with an upgrade at point guard in Rajon Rondo, which allows Jrue Holiday to move to the two. Those four are all going to be fantasy viable for a team that was inefficient offensively (26th) last season despite being 9th in pace. Expect that efficiency to improve and their top 10 defensive efficiency should remain in that range. People might be scared off by Cousins thinking his usage is negatively impacted by having to share the ball with Davis and Holiday but he had a usage topping 30% last season when those two were on the court with him and averaged nearly 1.5 fpts/minute.
New York Knicks
Head Coach: Jeff Hornacek
2016-2017: W-L 31-51 Pace 98.63 (15th) OffRtg 104.70 (18th) DefRtg 108.70 (25th)
3 year avg: W-L 27-55 Pace 96.04 OffRtg 101.27 DefRtg 106.90
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 30.5
Key Acquisitions – Tim Hardaway Jr., Ramon Sessions, Michael Beasley, Jarrett Jack, Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott, Trey Burke, Frank Ntilikina
Key Losses – Justin Holiday, Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony
Projected Starters – Frank Ntilikina, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis, Doug McDermott, Enes Kanter
Key Bench Players – Ramon Sessions, Ron Baker, Courtney Lee, Lance Thomas, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Willy Hernangomez, Joakim Noah
DFS Slant: Carmelo and Rose are gone. Should be the Year of the Porzingis then right? That should be what happens but if you look at how the young big man performed when Carmelo sat last season you’d see that he under performed (averaged less than .8 fpts/minute). The team added a ton of depth with Hardaway and Kanter the top two new members of the roster and those two will be viable fantasy options given what should be increased roles as starters on their new team. Porzingis is obviously the most appealing option though and if he can maintain any consistency, he should be a top DFS option most nights. Rookie Frank Ntilikina could be a source of value once he rounds into shape off a minor knee injury.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Head Coach: Billy Donovan
2016-2017: W-L 47-35 Pace 100.47 (8th) OffRtg 105.00 (17th) DefRtg 105.10 (10th)
3 year avg: W-L 49-33 Pace 99.40 OffRtg 106.47 DefRtg 103.73
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 50.5
Key Acquisitions – Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Patrick Patterson, Raymond Felton, Isaiah Canaan, Dakari Johnson
Key Losses – Taj Gibson, Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott
Projected Starters – Russell Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, Steven Adams
Key Bench Players – Raymond Felton, Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson, Jerami Grant, Dakari Johnson
DFS Slant: One ball to feed them all. That’s going to be the problem to solve for the Thunder this season as they added two extremely high usage players in George and Anthony to go with usage monster Russell Westbrook. The expectation, though, is that Anthony regresses in his usage and becomes more of a perimeter threat when teams try to slow down Westbrook. He’‘ll likely not be quite the commodity he has been in the past until his price meets the expectations of his current role. George will also no longer be the focal point of the offense but he can coexist with Westbrook much like Durant did and as such he’s still going to be a viable DFS option on most nights. Westbrook is as usual one of the best DFS options on any given night and that’s not going to change this season. If anything, he’ll be more efficient with his shooting and rack up more peripheral statistics due to the help he has on the team now. Steven Adams took a big step last season and with Enes Kanter gone should continue to emerge as a consistent fantasy player.
Orlando Magic
Head Coach: Frank Vogel
2016-2017: W-L 29-53 Pace 99.11 (13th) OffRtg 101.20 (29th) DefRtg 108.00 (24th)
3 year avg: W-L 30-52 Pace 97.72 OffRtg 101.13 DefRtg 105.93
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 33.5
Key Acquisitions – Shelvin Mack, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Marreese Speights, Jonathan Isaac
Key Losses – Jodie Meeks, Jeff Green
Projected Starters – Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, Nikola Vucevic
Key Bench Players – D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Jonathan Isaac, Bismack Biyombo, Marreese Speights
DFS Slant: The Magic are returning the majority of the team they ended the season with sans Meeks and Green and mainly added depth to their bench with players like Mack, Afflalo, Simmons, and Speights. No player on this team dominates in terms of usage and they seem to take turns on a nightly basis as to who has a big game between their starters. Gordon and Vucevic typically have the most upside but Payton and Fournier have been known to pop a big game on us. The team struggles defensively (24th), is inefficient as it comes on offense (29th) so bringing back opposing players is always ideal if you’re targeting any Magic players.
Philadelphia 76ers
Head Coach: Brett Brown
2016-2017: W-L 28-54 Pace 100.96 (5th) OffRtg 100.70 (30th) DefRtg 106.40 (17th)
3 year avg: W-L 19-63 Pace 99.82 OffRtg 96.77 DefRtg 105.07
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 39.5
Key Acquisitions – Furkan Korkmaz, Amir Johnson, J.J. Redick, James McAdoo, Kris Humphries, Markelle Fultz
Key Losses – Shawn Long
Projected Starters – Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick, Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, Joel Embiid
Key Bench Players – Jerryd Bayless, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Dario Saric, Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes, Jahlil Okafor
DFS Slant: The 76ers are expected to have Timberwolves like improvement this season as Vegas has projected them to improve by over 10 wins from their results last season. “The Process” is nearly complete and the additions of veterans Amir Johnson and J.J. Redick along with top rookie Markelle Fultz (and a healthy Ben Simmons) give the City of Brotherly Love plenty of reason to be optimistic about their teams postseason chances. The fantasy (and team) success will revolve around their superstar big man, Embiid. If he can stay healthy and get consistent minutes, the sky is the limit. Covington is always an intriguing option but his usage should decrease with the addition of the two rookies and Redick. The bench is strong as well and Brett Brown isn’t the kind of coach that gives his players 40 minutes in a game – not surprising since the team likes to run the floor (5th in pace) and are still struggling with their efficiency offensively (dead last in the league last season).
Phoenix Suns
Head Coach: Earl Watson
2016-2017: W-L 24-58 Pace 102.88 (2nd) OffRtg 103.90 (22nd) DefRtg 109.30 (28th)
3 year avg: W-L 29-53 Pace 100.81 OffRtg 102.07 DefRtg 106.57
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 28.5
Key Acquisitions – Troy Daniels, Josh Jackson
Key Losses – None
Projected Starters – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss, T.J. Warren, Tyson Chandler
Key Bench Players – Tyler Ulis, Troy Daniels, Dragan Bender, Jared Dudley, Josh Jackson, Alex Len
DFS Slant: The Suns did little to change from last season and will continue to build around their Devin Booker led youth movement. The team was 2nd in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency last season meaning you’re going to want to play opposing players as often as possible. Booker is the obvious top play and the only consistent fantasy option on the Suns and in a league that is thin at shooting guard will be in a lot of lineups on nights where the Suns play. Rookie Josh Jackson has potential but he’s mainly just going to hurt the minutes and usage of other players like T.J. Warren and Marquese Chriss.
Portland Trailblazers
Head Coach: Terry Stotts
2016-2017: W-L 41-41 Pace 99.08 (14th) OffRtg 107.80 (11th) DefRtg 107.80 (21st)
3 year avg: W-L 45-37 Pace 97.95 OffRtg 106.47 DefRtg 104.93
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 42.5
Key Acquisitions – Zach Collins, Andrew Nicholson, Archie Goodwin, Anthony Morrow
Key Losses – Allen Crabbe
Projected Starters – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner, Jusuf Nurkic
Key Bench Players – Shabazz Napier, Al-Farouq Aminu, Zach Collins, Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard
DFS Slant: This team will continue to revolve around their dynamic guard duo of Lillard and McCollum although Nurkic showed up on fantasy radars after being traded to the Blazers last season. Those three will be the focal points of fantasy viability but if any of them go down it’ll open up potential value for players like Harkless, Turner, or Aminu. Attacking the Blazers has always been a good thing although they did improve somewhat defensively last season. That said, Lillard and McCollum have never been known for their defensive prowess so countering with opposing guards is always a good option.
Sacramento Kings
Head Coach: Dave Joerger
2016-2017: W-L 32-50 Pace 97.06 (25th) OffRtg 104.60 (20th) DefRtg 109.10 (27th)
3 year avg: W-L 31-51 Pace 99.07 OffRtg 103.47 DefRtg 107.30
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 27.5
Key Acquisitions – Justin Jackson, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter, George Hill, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Aaron Fox
Key Losses – Anthony Tolliver, Arron Afflalo, Darren Collison, Tyreke Evans, Rudy Gay, Ben McLemore
Projected Starters – De’Aaron Fox, George Hill, Zach Randolph, Buddy Hield, Kosta Koufos
Key Bench Players – Garrett Temple, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Justin Jackson, Skal Labissiere
DFS Slant: DeMarcus Cousins started the mass exodus for the Kings who saw Collison, Gay, and Evans follow suit this offseason. They did add rookie De’Aaron Fox to man the point and veterans George Hill and Zach Randolph but Vegas still isn’t optimistic about the team, projecting them at just 27.5 wins. Fox is intriguing as the starting point guard and their young big men (Cauley-Stein and Labissiere) were productive when given playing time last season so keep an eye to see if one of those two emerge with a more defined role. The team does run at a slower pace (25th in the league last season) but are weak defensively (27th) so it’s fine to use players from the opposing team against them.
San Antonio Spurs
Head Coach: Gregg Popovich
2016-2017: W-L 61-21 Pace 96.41 (27th) OffRtg 108.80 (7th) DefRtg 100.90 (1st)
3 year avg: W-L 61-21 Pace 96.02 OffRtg 107.80 DefRtg 99.03
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 54.5
Key Acquisitions – Rudy Gay, Joffrey Lauvergne
Key Losses – Dewayne Dedmon, Jonathon Simmons
Projected Starters – Tony Parker, Danny Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol
Key Bench Players – Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, Kyle Anderson, Rudy Gay, Joffrey Lauvergne
DFS Slant: Rule #1 of NBA DFS typically goes like this – if playing the San Antonio Spurs, do not roster any player from the opposing team. It’s easy to see why as the team is tortoise slow in pace (27th) and easily the best team in terms of defensive efficiency in the league. This pace typically makes Spurs players avoidable for fantasy purposes but Kawhi Leonard is a player who is always viable due to his ability to stuff the stat sheet. Aldridge is fine at times but the rest of the starting lineup is usually a clear fade. Where the biggest DFS value from this team comes is when they decide to rest one of their many veteran players thus opening up tremendous value from the likes of Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, and now Rudy Gay as they receive increased playing time and usage. Did we mention to not roster players against the Spurs? That hasn’t changed.
Toronto Raptors
Head Coach: Dwane Casey
2016-2017: W-L 51-31 Pace 97.11 (22nd) OffRtg 109.80 (6th) DefRtg 104.90 (8th)
3 year avg: W-L 52-30 Pace 95.94 OffRtg 108.30 DefRtg 104.13
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 48.5
Key Acquisitions – Justin Hamilton, C.J. Miles, OG Anunoby
Key Losses – Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker, DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph
Projected Starters – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, C.J. Miles, Jonas Valanciunas
Key Bench Players – Delon Wright, Norman Powell, Lucas Nogueira, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl
DFS Slant: The Raptors will see a bit of regression this season as the team gets older and lost key veterans like Patterson, Tucker, Carroll, and Joseph. They are a slow but efficient team that relies on their two guards Lowry and DeRozan for most of their offense. Lowry is the more consistent of those two as DeRozan typically relies solely on scoring for his fantasy production. Ibaka should benefit some from the FanDuel scoring change as he’s impressive defensively and newly signed C.J. Miles could surprise if he gets consistent minutes at small forward.
Utah Jazz
Head Coach: Quin Snyder
2016-2017: W-L 51-31 Pace 93.62 (30th) OffRtg 107.40 (12th) DefRtg 102.70 (3rd)
3 year avg: W-L 43-39 Pace 93.22 OffRtg 104.33 DefRtg 102.13
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 40.5
Key Acquisitions – Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Jonas Jerebko, Donovan Mitchell
Key Losses – Trey Lyles, George Hill, Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack
Projected Starters – Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Rudy Gobert
Key Bench Players – Dante Exum, Raul Neto, Joe Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Ekpe Udoh, Joe Ingles
DFS Slant: The Jazz are pretty much Rule #2 in DFS and typically you should avoid rostering anyone when facing them as they are the slowest team in the league in pace and 3rd overall in defensive efficiency. The team lost a big source of their offensive production in Gordon Hayward as well as George Hill. The addition of Ricky Rubio will soften the Hill loss as he’s an upgrade at that position and Thabo Sefolosha should continue to help Utah be one of the top defensive teams in the league. The team isn’t particularly attractive fantasy wise although Rudy Gobert is a defensive beast that should have increased value this season due to the scoring changes. The player that benefits the most from Hayward’s departure is Rodney Hood – if he can stay healthy he should be the biggest offensive/usage threat on the Jazz.
Washington Wizards
Head Coach: Scott Brooks
2016-2017: W-L 49-33 Pace 99.68 (11th) OffRtg 108.50 (9th) DefRtg 106.90 (20th)
3 year avg: W-L 45-37 Pace 98.76 OffRtg 104.40 DefRtg 103.50
2017-2018 Vegas Win Total: 47.5
Key Acquisitions – Tim Frazier, Jodie Meeks
Key Losses – Trey Burke, Bojan Bogdanovic
Projected Starters – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat
Key Bench Players – Tim Frazier, Donald Sloan, Jodie Meeks, Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi, Kelly Oubre
DFS Slant: The Wizards are essentially the same team as last season as they added two veterans in Frazier and Meeks while losing two similar role players in Burke and Bogdanovic. The offense will continue to run through their starters with Wall and Beal being the two high usage, viable fantasy options. Morris and Porter are also viable in favorable match ups and if Wall ever does sit, Frazier will become an immediate value.