NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 16th - Page 2
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L.A.Lakers at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -8.5, 218.5 Over/Under
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Kelly-Hill
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
This one should be pretty much a disaster but that 8.5 point spread on the Spurs homecourt makes me worry a lot about who San Antonio will dress tonight and how much they’ll play. By now you know how the Lakers want to play, with defense being at a minimum and pace being at an absolute premium. Considering the number of healthy bodies they have remaining for tonight you can safely target a number of their players even if the Spurs defense vs. position ratings tell you otherwise.
- Jordan Farmar – Farmar is another boom or bust candidate off the Lakers bench but SA is weakest against PGs and when Farmar is good he’s really, really good.
- Wesley Johnson – I always like his ability to stuff the stat sheet and his price point is probably the best of all the Lakers tonight.
- Nick Young – Fresh off a big game on Monday, Swaggy P will look to end his season on a high note and you know he’ll at least put up enough shots to give himself a chance to have a big day.
I don’t usually mess with the Spurs on normal nights. If you want to roll the dice on one of these guys tonight be my guest, but you’re essentially going to be playing Russian Roulette.
Washington at Boston
- Vegas Line – Washington -8, 199 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Bass-Olynyk
Washington should be resting up for the playoffs in some capacity and the guys who have been banged up throughout the year (Beal, Gasol and Nene) should probably be avoided for fear of playing limited minutes. There are a few guys you can still consider here but for the most part I wouldn’t expect Washington to be going all out before their first playoff appearance in awhile.
- Trevor Ariza – Ariza has a nice price point on most sites after a 2 week long drought but finally broke out in the Wizards game on Monday with a 39 fantasy point performance.
The theme of ‘trusting the teams who are staring at the end of their season’ continues with the Celtics at home tonight. The Celtics tank job is almost complete and they should be limited tonight with both Jared Sullinger and Kris Hump-a-dump Kardashian doubtful to play. Jerryd Bayless is also doubtful and Rajon Rondo is currently questionable. If Rondo sits, Pressey is a nice value option but my guess is Rondo toughs it out for the final game of the year.
- Rajon Rondo – Make sure he’s playing but he’s been outstanding when he’s actually on the court, racking up assists and rebounds at an impressive rate.
- Jeff Green – Green has put together back to back big games and with all the injuries to the Celtics right now you can expect him to see big minutes and get a lot of shots up.
- Avery Bradley – AB has 4 straight 30+ FP efforts and in the absence of Bayless he seems like a good candidate to play 35-40 minutes.
Chicago at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -1, 181.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
The spread here tells you what Vegas thinks about the minutes that the Bulls top guys will play on Wednesday night and while I usually like to target close games, I don’t know I can really trust a game with no significance for Chicago when the O/U is just 181. That’s crazy low and both of these teams don’t like to push the pace at all, so steer clear of the options here.
I mentioned it in the Bulls breakdown but both of these teams want to take the air out of the ball, run their halfcourt offense and get high quality looks at a slow tempo. Considering the lack of significance for this game tonight, although Charlotte does have some seeding implications on the line, I wouldn’t expect either team to go full out and picking a guy to go off here seems like a crapshoot.
Brooklyn at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -7, 198.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Kirilenko-Pierce-Plumlee
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Gee-Thompson-Hawes
To no one’s surprise Brooklyn is likely to rest a number of their key players tonight. Deron Williams, Shaun Livingston and Joe Johnson are all reportedly out already, along with Mirza Teletovic and Alan Anderson being doubtful. That leaves a small number of healthy bodies on the Nets roster and some solid fantasy value to be had against a Cavs defense that is downright bad, especially when Luol Deng isn’t on the court.
- Jorge Gutierrez – His upside isn’t too high but he should see enough minutes to be productive tonight at min-price on nearly every DFS site.
- Mason Plumlee – Plums should get plenty of run tonight and has been outstanding recently for daily fantasy value.
- Andrei Kirilenko – Kirilenko had already seen about 27 minutes per game over his last 4 but with all these guys sitting you can expect that number to jump to about 34ish and his blocks + steals upside makes him a nice tournament play.
Cleveland’s miserable season will draw to a close on Wednesday and they’re expected to be without that supposedly big piece they traded for in Luol Deng. That leaves Alonzo Gee to pick up some added minutes but no one really benefits too much since Deng had been stagnant for the better part of the last month. They should be able to win this one easily with BKN benching most of their starters and some of their matchups definitely get a boost with the bulk of Brooklyn’s backcourt missing.
- Kyrie Irving – I’m a sucker for Kyrie, and he lets me down quite a bit, but I just don’t see anyway that Jorge Gutierrez and Marquis Teague can slow him down tonight.
- Tristan Thompson – Thompson is still real cheap in a number of places and has back to back 30+ FP efforts in solid minutes.
Philadelphia at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -5, 207 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh
Say goodbye to one of the best tanking efforts we’ve seen in a long time. You almost have to give credit to the Sixers for being so committed to being bad. I mean they traded away two of their better players at the deadline out of fear of being too good. Sam Hinkie even drove Evan Turner to the airport to get him out of town. Anyways, they’ll have a shot to end their year on a high note against a short-handed Heat team and I think you can trust a couple of guys here to play their normal minutes.
- Michael Carter-Williams – I roll with my gut a whole lot more at this juncture of the season and tonight it tells me that MCW will finish his rookie of the year resume with a big game against MIA.
The Heat are looking to sit both LeBron and Bosh again on Wednesday which means a few guys will see nice upticks in minutes and potential. They sat both on Monday so we have a pretty good feel for how the minutes should fall again tonight. Toney Douglas saw 35 minutes, Beasley got 27, and even Justin Hamilton played 24 minutes. Douglas and Beasley are likely the two best candidates to see big run tonight and against the Sixers that could equal huge production.
- Michael Beasley – Beasley is the Heat GPP option tonight vs. PHI. He had 31 FP in just 27 minutes on Monday and could play even more than that tonight.
- Toney Douglas – Douglas is a little safer than Beasley but his upside probably isn’t as high tonight, although against the Sixers anything is possible.