Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 19th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-20 02:11:19

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards
atlantanba Vegas Total 211.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 102.8 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20 Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7
DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33 DRPM -2.53 -1.35 2.66 3.29 2.92

Atlanta Hawks

Man, the Wizards really don’t like Paul Millsap. I’m not sure what he did to them, but it seemed like every time a Washington player did something good, particularly Markieff Morris, they found Millsap to stare him down (he was often pretty close as they were dunking on him most of the night). Can that give Millsap some motivation? Hopefully, because he wasn’t all that great in Game 1. He had a box-score plus-minus of -20, two rebounds, and one assist. For what it’s worth, he vowed to be more physical in Game 2 because, as he put it, the Wizards are “playing MMA.”

If he can step up on the glass, he would be a solid fantasy asset in this series. He was able to be effective as a scorer, making 5-of-8 shots on his way to 19 points. As pointed out in the series preview, he’s a balanced shooter and Washington allows a high field goal percentage in most areas of the floor. In terms of rebounding, the Hawks should continue to win the battle as a team – they out-rebounded the Wizards 48-43 in Game 1. In the second half of the season, Washington was 22nd in rebounding percentage (49.1%) while Atlanta was eighth (51.0%). He’ll struggle to accumulate them when he shares the floor with Dwight Howard though; Howard collects 23.5% of the available rebounds while on the court and Millsap hauls in 12.5%. This causes him to be a bit inconsistent, but the dude averages 7.7 per game and he can definitely get boards when things are going right; he had 18 double-doubles this season. Plus, Howard only played 29 minutes on Sunday to Millsap’s 34, which will provide Millsap at least some run without him. Although it’s not a huge part of his game, he assists on 17.9% of his team’s field goals (3.7 apg) and it normally adds to his floor. He didn’t have a single block or steal last game, but if he follows through on his promise to get more physical, he should do better in both stat categories. Washington doesn’t turn the ball over too much, they were 10th in steals allowed after the break, but they had 5.4 shots blocked per game during that span, which was the fifth-highest rate in the league. Draymond Green is the premiere power forward tonight, but the position is weak, especially on FanDuel. Millsap should come with lower ownership after his performance last game even though he should do better moving forward.

As mentioned, Howard only received 29 minutes; that’s on par with his regular season average and it may be his normal workload in this series with the Wizards going small at times. He managed to grab 14 rebounds in that stretch, but only scored seven points. On the season, he averages 1.10 FD ppm and 13.5 points per game, so while he can do better than last game, his ceiling is naturally capped by his somewhat limited workload. Still, his production this season has been decent relative to his price when playing between 28-32 minutes. Across 28 games he averaged 34.6 FD points, exceeded 30 FD points 75% of the time, and topped 40 21.4% of the time. We know he can rebound on Washington and we should see his scoring pick up. 91.5% of his made baskets are from within five feet of the hoop – he makes 70.2% of his shots there – and Washington allowed the tenth-highest FG% from that distance after the break (62.5%). He only took six shots last game and made two; he averaged 8.3 field goals a game over 29.7 mpg this season, so we should see a better effort the rest of the series. With limited options available at center, he’s a top target at the position despite his expected workload. He has a very friendly price tag on DraftKings at $6,500, which seems too low, even if he only plays 30 minutes.

Dennis Schroder led the team in minutes (36) and he nearly double-doubled, scoring 25 points and adding nine assists. The added time on the floor is really promising for Schroder’s production; he’s averaged 38.8 FD points across the 16 games he received at least 36 minutes and he topped 40 FD points 56.3% of the time. On top of that, he plays better when Howard is off the court; his usage rises 1.4% to 30.8% and his per-minute fantasy production jumps 0.15 FD ppm to 1.11. If Howard keeps getting around 30 minutes, Schroder will get time on the floor without him. In Game 1 he played 9.4 minutes sans Howard and he roughly scored 19.4 of his 42.1 FD points in that window.

Their third-best fantasy performer was Kent Bazemore with 22.6 FD points off the bench. He’s thrived in the second unit; since being relegated to the bench, his per-minute production has shot up 37.7% to 1.06 FD ppm. He didn’t quite live up to that in his 28 minutes on Sunday, but the streaky scorer is firmly in play for tournaments against a Washington defense that allowed the second-highest field goal percentage after the break (48.4%). He’s starting to cut into “(player-popup)Tim Hardaway”:/players/tim-hardaway-jr-16879’s time, who also played 28 minutes despite starting. That’s not great for Hardaway’s fantasy outlook. He can score in bunches but he needs more time on the floor to be reliable. In the current situation, he’s best used in tournaments. Taurean Prince performed as well as we can expect when he plays with a healthy Millsap, he scored 14 points and grabbed six rebounds in 32 minutes. With Howard and Millsap on the floor, he returns 0.44 FD ppm and with Millsap on and Howard off, he produces 0.63. Although he’ll earn more time than Bazemore, he seems like a worse option for fantasy lineups. He’s been a really solid defender this season and his play has removed a healthy Thabo Sefolosha from the rotation. Ersan Ilyasova still worked in for 20 minutes with Millsap back, but it’s not enough for him to be a great fantasy target.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,300 $7,400 $14,000 0.95 31.5 -2.7 30.0 -3.3 30.3% -7.1% 9 -0.83
Tim Hardaway $5,000 $5,300 $10,500 0.80 27.3 4.2 21.8 9.8 22.4% -0.8% 16 -0.94
Taurean Prince $4,300 $4,400 $8,700 0.70 16.6 11.1 11.7 5.0 17.0% 0.0% 17 0.03
Paul Millsap $7,200 $6,900 $12,900 1.03 34.0 -4.7 35.0 -3.2 24.9% 4.1% 22 1.54
Dwight Howard $7,300 $6,500 $12,400 1.10 29.7 -6.5 32.7 -5.7 18.6% 6.1% 20 1.33
Kent Bazemore $4,600 $4,200 $8,400 0.76 26.9 -4.6 20.5 1.4 20.6% 0.7% 17 N/A
Ersan Ilyasova $4,300 $4,100 $8,100 0.89 26.1 -4.7 23.3 -2.6 21.7% 2.9% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (GPP), Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP)

Washington Wizards

John Walled flexed on the Hawks in Game 1. Even though Atlanta was a top-five team in shots attempted and field goal percentage inside of five feet this season, Wall repeatedly attacked the basket, making 7-of-11 shots from that distance on his way to 32 points in total. He also contributed 14 assists, and he should continue to dish them in this series; Atlanta gave up the seventh-most assists per game in the second half of the year (25.0) and John Wall assists on 46.9% of his teammates’ field goals – he assisted on 61.3% of the field goals made while he was on the floor in Game 1. They also gave up the third-most steals per game, so expect him to force some turnovers in this series even though he didn’t have any in the first meeting. Atlanta should come out with more energy tonight and it’s unlikely Wall can have the level of success he had getting to the basket again. Regardless, he’s a good bet for 20+ points and double-digit assists with the way he’s been playing.

Markieff Morris also had a big game on Sunday, scoring 21 points and adding seven rebounds. He also stepped up on defense, blocking four shots and getting a steal. Morris is not a big shot-blocker, he averages 0.5 per game, so we can’t expect that to continue. However, we can assume he’ll log heavy minutes again, he played 38 in Game 1. He shot from all over the floor, but was most effective inside, converting 4-of-5 from within eight feet and completing 4-of-4 death stares on Millsap each time he made a bucket down low. His price is coming up, but he’s one of three reliable power forwards on FanDuel. His average per-36 pace is 29.94 FD points, so $6,000 isn’t too bad when he’s going to hit that time each night, if not exceed it. However, we saw his ceiling type of game last time out, which will cause his ownership to rise, while Millsap’s will fall. There’s some merit to going the opposite direction in GPPs, especially on a short slate that calls for differentiating lineups.

Washington gave Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat increased minutes as well. Porter didn’t quite deliver, only taking two three-pointers and six shots total, but he was able to pull down nine rebounds in 32 minutes. It’s a positive sign that Kelly Oubre and Bojan Bogdanovic were both limited to fewer than 20 minutes as they had been cutting into Porter’s playing time in the regular season. Porter has a similar per-36 fantasy production as Morris, returning 29.73 FD points, and he’s $5k on the site ($5.2k on DK). We can expect him to do better, especially when it comes to scoring. Atlanta allowed the most three-point attempts per game after the break (32.3) and if they can step up their interior defense, Porter should get more opportunities to take some outside shots. He was fourth in 3P% this season (43.4%). That trend also bodes well for Bradley Beal, who took the seventh-most threes in the league this season and shot 11 in the first game of this series. He struggled to get things going though, only making two of his deep shots. On the positive side, he led the team in minutes and he should push 40 each game. He’s a scoring dependent player, but he should continue to fire and will inevitably hit more of his attempts.

With Ian Mahinmi out, Marcin Gortat picked up 30 minutes and double-doubled, scoring 14 points and grabbing ten rebounds. It’s not an ideal matchup for him to keep up that type of production, but he has a pretty safe floor as he’s topped 20 FD points in 80% of the games he’s played at least 30 minutes. Considering his current price and the selection of centers on this slate, he’s one of the better cash options.

Kelly Oubre and Brandon Jennings were the only guys to play more than 15 minutes off the bench, but neither are particularly exciting since they’re unlikely to top 20 minutes. Oubre scored 22.1 FD points in his last outing, but that seems like an unsustainable level of production for him. Plus, he’s dealing with knee soreness that held him out of yesterday’s practice. He’s looking too risky to target.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,300 $10,300 $18,300 1.24 36.4 -2.1 45.3 -3.5 34.8% 0.3% 24 -2.53
Bradley Beal $7,300 $7,200 $13,700 0.94 34.9 0.6 32.9 1.9 26.4% -0.7% 25 -1.35
Otto Porter $5,000 $5,200 $10,200 0.82 32.6 -11.8 26.7 -8.2 14.8% 3.6% 28 2.66
Markieff Morris $6,000 $5,600 $11,200 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -0.8 19.8% 4.3% 8 3.29
Marcin Gortat $5,100 $5,100 $10,200 0.85 31.2 -5.1 26.4 -2.8 14.7% 0.1% 7 2.92
Kelly Oubre $4,100 $3,800 $7,400 0.61 20.3 9.9 12.4 8.8 13.9% 1.8% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat (cash)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Houston Rockets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 223.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 107.8 Team Total 115.3
Pace +/- 3.8 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26 Adj. DvP 4 19 16 10 11
DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25 DRPM -0.59 1.64 2.47 2.10 1.42

Oklahoma City Thunder

Welp, the first game didn’t go according to plan at all. The Thunder got beat up by the Rockets in the second half of Game 1 and it turned into a blowout, limiting their starters’ minutes. Westbrook played 34 after he got pulled in the fourth. He was ice cold, shooting 26.1% from the field and he committed nine turnovers. His price dropped quite a bit on both sites, he’s now $12.5k on FanDuel and $13.1k on DraftKings. This is the bounce-back spot. The Thunder are 7.5-point dogs, which isn’t terrible, and Houston remains a great fantasy matchup. They give up a ton of points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals – everything – and they play at the third-fastest pace. However, he has to deal with Patrick Beverley defending him. This is a guy who prides himself on his defense and has the second-best DRPM among all point guards. He’s probably the reason Westbrook’s per-minute production has declined against the Rockets. Westbrook’s usage has gone up 2.6% to 46.4% against Houston this season though, and last game his usage was 47.2%. That’s insane. He’s bound to go off in this series even with Beverley on him and tonight seems fitting with him coming off a bad loss. Angry/motivated Westbrook is a blessing for fantasy.

Enes Kanter was second in usage at 24.4%, but he played 16 minutes and at one point in the game, after his blown coverage led to a Clint Capela alley-oop, coach Billy Donovan was shown on TV saying, “can’t play Kanter.” He’s been a phenomenal per-minute guy against Houston this season (1.29 DK ppm) and he’s been the second-highest on the team in general (1.18 DK ppm), but it doesn’t look like he’ll be getting the minutes. It’s tempting to consider him as a GPP flier if running a bunch of lineups, but he’s extremely risky at this point.

Victor Oladipo naturally saw a drop in usage as Westbrook’s went up; it was 20.6%, 2.2% off his season average. He still managed 19.1 FD points despite going 1-of-12 from the field. He’s under $5k on FanDuel and just $5.3k on DraftKings. He’s got a great matchup, and if the game stays close, he’ll log more than 32 minutes this time around. It’s a nice bounce-back spot for him as well and he’ll likely have lower ownership than normal.

OKC offers a couple other cheap options in Andre Roberson and Steven Adams. Roberson played out of his mind last game, making 4-of-6 three-pointers and 7-of-10 shots overall on his way to 18 points. He also contributed eight rebounds, two blocks, and two steals for a total of 38.5 DK points while leading the team with 35 minutes. He should get plenty of run again tonight and he’s played well against the Rockets all season. Excluding his playoff game, Roberson returned a per-36 pace of 28.78 DK points, 5.9 DK points above his season average. His usage increased 4.7% to 15.6% in his meetings with Houston as well. Even though we can’t expect a repeat performance of Game 1, he’s a strong option on both sites at $4.5k or less. Adams is a notch above that at $4.6k on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He didn’t do well in the opening game, scoring six and rebounding five. As a team, the Thunder were out-rebounded 56-41. Expect that to change going forward as the Thunder were the best rebounding team in the NBA. Adams was second on the team in rebounding this season; he averaged 7.7 rpg in 29.9 mpg. He should get into the mid-to-low-30s if the game stays close, especially if they start holding Kanter back. He also averaged 11.3 ppg, so we should expect that number to rise with more minutes. The Kiwi Phenom is a top GPP target at his price in this very favorable matchup, especially following up a dud.

It’s worth noting that Jerami Grant picked up 27 minutes off the bench last game. That’s a bit inflated due to the blowout and he returned 0.64 DK ppm this season on a 12.6% usage rate. Alex Abrines also picked up 20 and he equals Grant in per-minute production. They aren’t very exciting options, especially when they’ll likely be held to 20 minutes or less in a competitive game. Taj Gibson is a much more appealing GPP value play. He only played 21 minutes last game and he threw up a dud, but the Kanter’s defensive issues could provide him some more time on the floor. Over the course of the season, he returned 0.81 DK ppm on a 20.3% usage rate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $13,100 $23,400 1.69 34.6 -2.3 58.6 -3.1 45.9% 0.3% 25 1.89
Victor Oladipo $4,900 $5,300 $10,500 0.79 33.2 -1.6 26.2 -3.7 21.7% 1.2% 26 -1.81
Andre Roberson $4,100 $4,500 $8,800 0.60 30.1 -14.9 18.0 -13.5 10.2% -4.6% 23 1.54
Taj Gibson $3,700 $3,900 $7,700 0.82 25.5 -5.0 20.9 -3.0 18.4% 5.6% 27 -0.16
Steven Adams $4,600 $4,600 $9,100 0.82 29.9 -2.8 24.6 -1.7 16.1% 0.2% 26 1.25
Enes Kanter $4,900 $4,300 $8,500 1.12 21.3 -2.1 23.8 -4.1 26.5% 4.7% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo (GPP), Steven Adams (GPP), Andre Roberson

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (cash), Steven Adams (cash), Taj Gibson (GPP)

Houston Rockets

James Harden came up big in Game 1, scoring 37 points, grabbing seven boards, and contributing nine assists in 34 minutes. This was his best game against the Thunder all season. Although he wasn’t on fire, he made 46.4% of his attempts, he shot the ball 28 times (about 10 shots above his average). He also boasted a usage rate of 42.9%, well above his normal 36.5% rate. These are solid indications of what he intends to do in this series. However, as mentioned above, the Thunder are typically an excellent rebounding team, and they don’t allow many assists – the seventh-fewest this season (21.4 per game). Harden’s peripherals may stay right around the numbers he put up in Game 1 on average. That means he’ll likely need to keep scoring a ton to pay off his salary. Although the Thunder were tenth in defensive rating this season, they played at the eighth-fastest pace and allowed the 12th-highest field goal percentage (45.9%). Harden averaged 29.1 points a night in 36.4 minutes. He should see an elevated workload and it’s safe to expect him to continue taking a ton of shots. Another thing working in his favor is Oklahoma City’s struggles to keep guys off the foul line; they allowed the fourth-highest free throw attempt rate this season (29.5%) – and Harden, who took the most shots from the charity stripe this season, scored 31.6% of his points on free throws (he took 11 free throws in Game 1). Although the Thunder may be able to keep his peripherals slightly down, as they have all year, it doesn’t seem like they’ll be able to stop him from scoring.

As a result of the Thunder’s struggles on the glass, Ryan Anderson and Patrick Beverley hauled in 12 and 10 rebounds, respectively. These don’t seem like sustainable numbers, but Beverley has been on another level recently, hitting double-digit rebounds in four of his last five games. He’s also topped 40 DK points in two consecutive games. He could’ve had an even bigger stat line on Sunday if he didn’t get hurt during the game. He’s good to go tonight, and will surely see more than 26 minutes in Game 2. He’s the only point guard on FanDuel priced between $2.500 and $7,300, and one of two between $3,200 and $7,300 on DraftKings. That’ll make him a popular option, but for good reason. Over the past two games, his usage is up 5.1% to 20.6% and he’s delivered 1.45 DK ppm. Although the per-minute production is not something he can keep going, he should play more minutes than normal and he’s simply been in the zone recently. While he won’t be the top point guard in raw points, he offers the top points-per-dollar projection on FanDuel. Anderson, on the other hand, hasn’t been anything special. It’s only the third time all season he’s reached double-digit rebounds and he’s mainly used as a three-ball specialist – he was 0-for-4 from deep last game. He will play a lot of minutes though, which makes him interesting at his price. On the season, he’s averaged 28.09 DK points per-36, but he’s inconsistent, even when he’s logged heavy minutes, so he’s best used in tournaments.

Clint Capela and Nene Hilario both deliver over 1 DK ppm, but they’re splitting time, which puts a drag on both of their outputs. Capela still managed 31.75 DK points and Nene 23.25, but it’ll be difficult for them to do much better. Capela has been impressively consistent, keeping him in consideration for cash games, even in the tough matchup. He’s posted at least 27 DK points in 18 of his past 22 games. His price has come up a bit too high on FanDuel though. Nene is a little too much on FanDuel as well, but he can be considered for tournaments on DraftKings at $3.9k.

Lou Williams and Eric Gordon each received significant minutes off the bench, both playing for more than 26, but they were aided by the blowout and at least Williams got some extra minutes when Beverley was in the locker room with a back issue. Williams is the more interesting option of the two, but he needs to get hot to have value. With the starters all healthy, neither guy will be very appealing due to their expected workloads. Trevor Ariza started and played 32 minutes. He put up a dud, scoring four points and collecting four rebounds. He’s a semi-interesting tournament option given the selection of small forwards (and power forwards on DK) and his ability to put up big games. However, he doesn’t have a good matchup for peripherals, and it looks like he’ll be losing some field goal attempts to James Harden. He’s a secondary tournament option at best.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,200 $5,800 $11,600 0.82 30.7 0.2 25.2 3.5 16.3% -1.2% 4 -0.59
James Harden $12,300 $12,000 $21,500 1.48 36.4 -2.1 53.9 1.1 38.6% 0.1% 19 1.64
Trevor Ariza $5,200 $5,400 $10,600 0.72 34.7 2.1 25.1 -1.0 14.4% 1.6% 16 2.47
Ryan Anderson $4,400 $4,900 $9,700 0.71 29.4 -7.4 20.9 0.2 17.2% 3.2% 10 2.10
Clint Capela $5,900 $5,500 $10,900 1.08 23.9 1.9 25.9 6.2 19.1% 1.1% 11 1.42
Eric Gordon $4,200 $4,700 $9,200 0.77 31.0 -1.1 23.8 -4.0 22.0% -0.2% 19 N/A
Lou Williams $4,200 $5,200 $10,200 1.03 24.6 2.4 25.4 -5.6 28.9% -4.2% 19 N/A
Nene Hilario $4,600 $3,900 $7,700 0.97 17.9 0.1 17.3 1.7 19.3% 1.8% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Patrick Beverley (FD), Clint Capela (DK cash)

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley (DK), Clint Capela (FD, DK GPP), Ryan Anderson (GPP), Trevor Ariza (GPP), Nene (DK GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors
portlandnba Vegas Total 219.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread 14.0 Vegas Spread -14.0
Team Total 102.8 Team Total 116.8
Pace +/- 3.5 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Meyers Leonard Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12 Adj. DvP 10 6 11 25 18
DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61 DRPM -1.39 -1.93 0.33 1.30 0.17

Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum combined for 75 points, but it wasn’t enough for the Trail Blazers to overcome the Warriors. Both played around 40 minutes and will continue to do so, and they each had usage rates of 33.5% or more. Lillard’s production is more in line with what we can expect than McCollum’s, who was on absolute fire from the start. C.J. normally has a usage rate around 29.1% and he delivers 0.97 FD ppm. He’s a streaky shooter that’s generally been a better tournament guy, but on tonight’s slate, he’s one of the best available for either format. Jusuf Nurkic is out again, which is good news as his usage drops over 5% when Nurkic shares the court. With the Warrior’s fast pace, he should continue to take plenty of shots, although he won’t be able to keep making as many of his attempts. Golden State allowed the lowest field goal percentage this season (43.5%) and had the second-lowest defensive rating (101.1). Basically, we need to temper expectations on McCollum because he has been up and down. He and Beal are in the same ballpark in terms of price, production, ceiling, and consistency. In GPPs there’s certainly an argument to be made in Beal’s case when considering expected ownership stemming from recency bias.

McCollum also has to worry about Evan Turner, who was inserted into the starting lineup as the Trail Blazers went small. He played 36 minutes and could continue to start and get a heavy workload. When Turner shares the court with McCollum and Lillard, McCollum’s usage drops 5.6% and his per-minute production falls 0.13 FD ppm to 0.84. Lillard also takes a downgrade with this lineup, losing 0.12 FD ppm to bring his rate to 1.03, despite maintaining a 33.5% usage rate. This is a bit concerning, but Turner was held to an 11.2% usage rate in Game 1 – 5.4% below his average in this scenario – which allowed Lillard and McCollum to go off.

This is the second time Lillard dropped 30+ points on the Warriors this year. We should see some positive regression with his assists; he only had three in Game 1, as he assisted on 14.4% of his teammates’ field goals while he was on the court. During the season, he averaged 5.9 apg in 35.9 mpg while assisting on 28.7% of his teammates’ made shots. He’s a great option tonight, Turner starting or not, particularly on DraftKings, where he’s $8,700.

Even though Turner’s usage was low on Sunday, he produced 31 FD points with his time on the floor. He normally takes a slight hit in both usage and per-minute production when playing alongside the two stars, but still manages a per-36 pace of 25.80 FD points. Considering he’s $4.6k on the site, he’s a solid option if he’s starting again.

Moe Harkless played 35 minutes and contributed 10 points on 13 shots. He’s not a very exciting player, but he’s cheap and his fantasy production stays pretty level when playing in a Lillard/McCollum/Turner lineup. His per-36 pace of 24.04 is a nice return on his salary, but he doesn’t have a high ceiling when the other three are playing. Noah Vonleh started alongside these guys and had a usage rate of 12.5%. He ended up splitting time with Al-Farouq Aminu, both received 23 minutes and neither guy much with them. Portland will likely employ a similar rotation, which makes both Vonleh and Aminu unappealing in fantasy.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,500 $8,700 $16,000 1.16 35.9 1.6 41.5 6.3 32.7% 3.7% 3 0.24
C.J. McCollum $7,400 $7,300 $13,700 0.95 34.9 -0.1 33.3 -6.1 27.7% 0.3% 14 -0.91
Maurice Harkless $3,700 $4,300 $8,400 0.69 28.9 -0.5 19.8 -5.7 14.7% -4.7% 5 1.35
Noah Vonleh $4,100 $4,000 $7,800 0.70 17.1 12.9 11.9 10.0 12.6% -2.5% 21 5.08
Meyers Leonard $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.69 16.5 11.4 11.4 5.1 15.6% -4.1% 12 3.61
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,500 $4,400 $8,800 0.75 29.1 2.5 21.9 -1.0 15.2% -0.1% 21 N/A
Allen Crabbe $3,500 $3,600 $7,000 0.60 28.5 0.6 17.2 11.0 14.7% 0.7% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – Evan Turner, Moe Harkless

Golden State Warriors

The big news of the day is Kevin Durant’s calf injury. He didn’t practice yesterday and didn’t participate in shootaround this morning, which is never a good sign. There’s a decent chance the Warriors keep him out tonight just to be careful with him. If he’s out, Steph Curry would become a near lock, especially on DraftKings. His usage goes up 4.0% and his per-36 pace shoots up by 5.08 DK points, bringing it to 54.23. He played 36 minutes last game, should do the same tonight, and he costs $8,600 on DK. If Durant goes, he could be limited in some capacity, keeping Curry as an elite option on tonight’s slate.

Draymond Green is simply the best option at power forward and center (DK only). He was ridiculous last game with 19 points, 12 boards, nine assists, five blocks, and three steals. While we can’t possibly expect him to repeat that performance, he’s going to be playing a ton of minutes and his per-36 pace exceeds 41 DK points with or without Durant. His price is just too low.

If Durant sits Andre Iguodala should play the most minutes out of the two. He played 33 last game and had a poor showing. His usage rate was really low at 5.2%, but that should track up towards his 12.5% average when Durant is off the floor. In terms of fantasy production, he’s set a per-36 pace of 28.46 DK points, but in the last four weeks he’s been playing well, bringing that per-36 number up to 32.18 DK points. That number goes even higher when Durant is off: 34.95 DK points per-36. Iggy can head towards the 36-minute mark id Durant sits, which would make him a great deal in DFS tonight.

Not surprisingly, “(player-popup)Klay Thompson”:/players/klay-thompson-13315’s usage shoots up 3.8% and his per-36 pace rises 4.3 FD points to 37.01. He’s another guy that would become a great option if Durant is ultimately ruled out. He topped 35 FD points in 10 of the 18 games he played while Durant was injured and he took at least 9 three-point attempts in 12 of those matchups – he only took six in Game 1 against Portland, and hit just one.

No one else is expected to get enough time on the court tonight to be valuable in fantasy, even if Durant is sidelined. Matt Barnes is questionable, and he’s only $3,100 on DK, but he’d still be around 20 minutes or so. He’s a potential GPP flier, but it’ll be difficult for him to produce with his expected workload. If he and Durant are both out, Ian Clark and Patrick McCaw, both $2,500 or less on DK, could become interesting. Clark is the better option, he utilized a 22.3% usage rate to return 0.81 DK ppm this season with Durant off the court, and he could be in line for a little over 20 minutes. McCaw only produced 0.61 DK ppm on a 13.7% usage rate; even if he’s allotted a few more minutes than Clark, it probably won’t be enough to make him a better choice.

Of course, if Durant suits up and he doesn’t have a minutes restriction, he’ll be a top target, especially at his position where he’s the only player above $5,400 on FD and DK. He scored 32 points and he should continue to make buckets. He was a 6-of-7 from 8-24 feet from the hoop, which is a soft area for Portland – they were 26th in FG% from 8-16 feet this season (43.0%) and 22nd from 16-24 feet (41.3%). Over the course of the season, he took 34.9% of his shots from those areas and connected on 48.9% of his attempts. Durant should keep finding favorable shots in those zones and be effective with his opportunities. We should see his assist numbers go up as well. Portland didn’t allow too many on the season, only 20.6 per game (4th), but Durant assisted on 23.2% of his teammate’s field goals while he was on the floor and the Warriors make a lot of field goals – 43.1 per game during the regular season, which was the most in the league.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,000 $8,600 $15,900 1.25 33.4 -2.5 41.6 5.5 31.3% 3.6% 10 -1.39
Klay Thompson $6,800 $6,200 $12,300 0.91 34.0 -3.3 30.9 4.0 24.6% 4.4% 6 -1.93
Kevin Durant $9,800 $9,500 $17,600 1.36 33.4 -3.2 45.5 -4.4 28.0% -1.7% 11 0.33
Draymond Green $7,500 $7,500 $13,800 1.06 32.5 -7.9 34.6 -13.0 19.3% 1.6% 25 1.30
Zaza Pachulia $3,500 $2,900 $6,000 0.96 18.1 1.2 17.4 -2.2 15.7% -2.3% 18 0.17
Andre Iguodala $4,700 $4,300 $8,500 0.75 26.3 -3.9 19.7 -0.4 13.2% 4.0% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson (Durant out), Andre Iguodala (Durant out), Kevin Durant (if playing without restrictions)

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (Durant in), Andre Iguodala (Durant in), Ian Clark (DK, Durant and Barnes out)

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).