NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-25 20:09:16

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		216.0					Vegas Total		216.0
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		111.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	3	3	7	21		DvP	10	17	13	5	8
DRPM Rat.	2	22	4	9	21		DRPM Rat.	12	14	2	19	7

Washington Wizards

The Wizards picked up two wins at home to even the series at two games apiece. I don’t know about you, but I get the feeling that this series is going seven games and is going to come down to the final few minutes of the fourth quarter. Washington comes into Game 5 as 7-point underdogs, but I’m not overly concerned about the spread or about their low team total. These games have been some of the highest scoring that we have seen so far in the playoffs and I don’t see that changing at this point.

John Wall has scored 63 and 68 fantasy points in the last two games. With no elite rim protection from Toronto and an ability to fill up every stat category, he offers a high floor and a high ceiling. After being one of the highest owned players in his last two slates, Wall could fly under the radar tonight at a price well above $10,000. I plan to go right back to the well and actually prefer him over Russell Westbrook, who is only averaging 48 fantasy points per game against the Jazz. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter have both been quiet in this series. Of the two, I would lean to Porter since he’s the cheaper of the two and offers a little more when it comes to peripheral statistics.

Markieff Morris can’t seem to stay out of foul trouble. His per-minute production has been solid in this series and we know that he is capable of playing 30+ minutes. His price has come way down over the last couple of games, making him an intriguing play in tournaments. If we take out the game where Marcin Gortat got into early foul trouble, he has played at least 25 minutes and has scored at least 18 fantasy points in every game. He’s only $4,100 on FanDuel and allows us to spend up on some of the other positions. Mike Scott has been the beneficiary of the foul trouble for Morris and Gortat. While that’s tough to rely on each game, he’s certainly worth a look on FanDuel at a price of only $3,700.

Notable Injuries

None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (3 of 8)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter (DK), Marcin Gortat (FD), Markieff Morris (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (FD), Marcin Gortat (DK), Markieff Morris (Cash), Bradley Beal, Kelly Oubre (FD GPP)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were unable to steal a game in Washington, but are still in full control of this series. They say that a series never truly starts until someone wins on the road. I don’t necessarily love that saying, but Toronto only needs to win its next two home games to advance to the second round. They have the second highest implied total (111.5 points) on the board tonight and should be playing with a little desperation. They can’t afford to head back to Washington down 3-2 in the series.

Kyle Lowry hasn’t seen a big boost in fantasy production in this series, but he is averaging nearly five more minutes per game than he did in the regular season. Minutes equal fantasy production in my mind, so I will gladly play Lowry in tournaments at low ownership. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 40 fantasy points per game in this series and technically has the best individual matchup of the five starters. He is no longer priced in the high-$7,000 range, but certainly still viable in all formats. Keep an eye on the availability of Fred VanVleet and OG Anunboy. If they are both forced to miss this game, Delon Wright and C.J. Miles would become elite value plays at their respective positions.

The Raptors’ frontcourt has been hit or miss in this series. Serge Ibaka scored 44 and 33 fantasy points in the two games at home in this series and then struggled mightily on the road. I never love to place a huge emphasis on home/road splits (especially given the small sample size), but it’s promising that this game is being played in Toronto. Ibaka is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he should come at low ownership. I always have a hard time recommending Jonas Valanciunas when he is priced up because we can’t project him to play more than 22-24 minutes each night. He certainly has enough upside to warrant consideration in tournaments, but there are safer cash game targets.

Notable Injuries

Fred VanVleet (Questionable)
OG Anunboy (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (2 of 8)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka (GPP), Kyle Lowry (DK), Delon Wright & C.J. Miles (if VanVleet & Anunboy are both out)

Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka (Cash), Kyle Lowry (FD), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Delon Wright & C.J. Miles (if VanVleet or Anunboy is out)

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		205.0					Vegas Total		205.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		99.3					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	George Hill	Kyle Korver	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	25	27	16	13		DvP	4	4	16	12	24
DRPM Rat.	22	5	27	21	15		DRPM Rat.	19	1	21	5	18

Indiana Pacers

There are still three games left to play in this series, but I get the feeling that the Pacers blew their opportunity to win this series. They lost home-court advantage, which isn’t ideal in any series, let alone one against LeBron James. With that said, Indiana has played the Cavaliers tough in all four games, so they are certainly still alive. They come into Game 5 as 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 99.3 points, which is the lowest of the eight teams in action tonight.

We’ve seen the good and the bad Darren Collison in this series. He has struggled from the field in three of the first four games, but should still log 30+ minutes against the Cavaliers, who are one of the worst defensive teams left in the playoffs. I wouldn’t call Collison a core play, but he’ll end up being my favorite point guard value if the Raptors are fully healthy (which would bump down Delon Wright). Victor Oladipo tried to do a little too much on his own in Game 4. He’s going to have bad shooting performances, but he’ll also have games where he racks up a few steals and a few blocks. I love the upside that he brings to the table and the fact that his price has come all the way don to $8,100 on DraftKings. I’ve been on the right side of Bojan Bogdanovic in all four games of this series. Being the Bojan whisperer, I’m going to recommend a fade tonight on the road.

Love or hate him, Lance Stephenson provides must-watch drama when he’s on the floor. At only $3,800 on FanDuel, he’s one of the top value plays at small forward. Thaddeus Young has gotten progressively better in every game so far this series, scoring 15, 28, 36, and 48 fantasy points. This will be a hard trend to keep up, but at the very least, he is playing with more confidence than he was to start the series. Young is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($5,500). I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the recent performance of Domantas Sabonis. The last two games were played at home and he benefitted from Myles Turner getting into foul trouble. Speaking of Turner, I’m projected him to play 32-34 minutes in this one, making him one of the best point-per-dollar plays at center.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (7 of 8)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young (DK), Lance Stephenson (FD)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers picked up a huge win in Game 4. Every time the media starts to count LeBron James out, he comes out and shows everyone why he is the King. They now have home-court advantage back in their favor and I’d expect them to be the favorites to come out of the East again if they pick up a win tonight. They currently have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the third highest of the eight teams on the schedule.

George Hill is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. It sounds strange, but he doesn’t make a big dent from a fantasy standpoint whether he plays or whether he sits. I want no part of Hill is he’s active and no part of Jose Calderon if he’s ruled out. Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith have become the go-to value plays at shooting guard over the last three games. They’ve traded off big fantasy outings, so by that logic, it’s Smith’s turn to shine. I’m obviously not going to make my selection on that alone, but Smith is $700 cheaper than Korver on FanDuel, while both feel a little overpriced on DraftKings.

If you don’t like to roster the best player in the world that is going to play 40+ minutes in a favorable matchup, feel free to fade LeBron James. He has averaged 61 fantasy points in the first four games of the series and I’m expecting an even bigger outing from him in Game 5. Kevin Love has to have a decent game eventually, right? His minutes are way up from the regular season and his price is sitting there at a very enticing $6,700 on DraftKings. This is a pricing trap that I have no choice but to fall for. He basically needs 35 fantasy points to reach value, which is something that Love is capable of doing in his sleep.

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Questionable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 (6 of 8)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, J.R. Smith (FD), Kevin Love (DK)

Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith (DK), Kevin Love (FD), Kyle Korver (FD)

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		102.0					Implied Team Total		105.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Corey Brewer	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	24	7	11	3		DvP	13	1	4	2	7
DRPM Rat.	5	20	9	25	17		DRPM Rat.	2	6	6	10	1

Utah Jazz

My beloved Utah Jazz took care of business at home and are now a single win away from advancing to the second round. Whether you like the Jazz or not, you have to like the way they have played in this series. Assuming things continue to escalate, we could see an all-out brawl between these two teams tonight. While I’d like the Jazz to pick up a win here, there is too much fight in Russell Westbrook not to force a Game 6. I’m expecting another close game, but for the Jazz to fall just short in Game 5.

Ricky Rubio does so much on the floor that he doesn’t need to score a ton of points to reach and exceed value at his price point. He racks up rebounds, assists, and steals, which gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. Once again, he’s one of the top point-per-dollar options at point guard, even though Westbrook thinks he can shut him down. Donovan Mitchell is so talented. He scores with such ease that I wonder why I’m not more dominant in my rec ball league. Obviously, the competition in my league is tougher, but still. I’m actually going to be off of Mitchell tonight. His price is up, he’s on the road, and there are other options I prefer at shooting guard. Joe Ingles aka Toby Flenderson really struggled on the road in the first two games of the series. At his price, he’s an easy fade tonight.

Derrick Favors has really played well in this series, averaging 34 minutes and 30 fantasy points per game. He’s a tough cover for Carmelo Anthony and his ability to rack up rebounds and blocks gives him a higher floor than some of the other power forward options at his price point. Rudy Gobert is still only $7,000 on DraftKings. I’m not sure what he has to do to see a price bump, but rather than complain, I will continue to target him in all formats. Much like Rubio and Favors, Gobert is so good at racking up stats that he doesn’t need a big offensive game in order to pay off his salary in DFS.

Notable Injuries

Jae Crowder (Probable)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (3 of 8)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.0 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are in a must-win situation tonight. If they lose, they will be out of the playoffs and it will likely be the last game with this collection of players. Given the fact that they have Russell Westbrook and a few veterans, I expect them to play well tonight and force a Game 6. They come into the game with an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate. As for the spread itself, the Thunder are favored by 3.5 points.

Russell Westbrook has struggled to take over games like he did in the regular season. While his shot has been a little off, most of the credit goes to the defense of the Utah Jazz. They aren’t letting him get to the rim as often and they are forcing him into a lot of turnovers. I have yet to play Westbrook in this series, but may get some exposure to him tonight. His price is all the way down to $10,600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and you know that he’s going to play close to 40 minutes in an elimination game. Paul George has been a bright spot for the Thunder in this series, but he has made some incredibly difficult shots. I’m not sure I can stomach a George fade, but I certainly wouldn’t argue against it.

Carmelo Anthony has not shot the ball well in this series. He is 22-for-59 (37%) and yet, he has still averaged 30.5 fantasy points per game. And he is still priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I know people hate to play Anthony, but we have to put our biases aside. He’s a tremendous play in a game where he could see 36-38 minutes. Steven Adams has not gotten anything going in this series. He’s either been absent offensively, in foul trouble, or both. His salary on DraftKings ($5,300) is tempting, but there are better plays tonight.

Notable Injuries

None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.4 (5 of 8)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash), Steven Adams

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets – 9:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		216.5					Vegas Total		216.5
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		102.3					Implied Team Total		114.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.3
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	10	6	17		DvP	19	20	1	4	12
DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4		DRPM Rat.	18	1	28	15	24

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves were able to pick up a win in Game 3, but the high-powered Rockets’ offense proved too much to handle in Game 4. They will now try to stave off elimination in Game 5 in Houston. They are listed as 12-point underdogs, which is easily the highest of the slate. This is really the only game that has blowout potential, as we could easily see the Rockets run away with this one. With that said, the Wolves do have an implied total of 102.3 points, which is higher than the Jazz and and the Pacers.

Jeff Teague has been a roller coaster in this series, scoring 40, 13, 42, and 9 fantasy points in the first four games. With Derrick Rose playing so well off the bench, Teague is a deep tournament play at best tonight. I have regretfully been fading Rose all series, but may take a look at him in tournaments. He should see minutes in the mid-20s with the potential for more if this game gets out of hand. I also like Jamal Crawford for the exact same reason. He has a floor of 20 minutes with the potential for a lot more in a blowout. Andrew Wiggins is cheap, but not on my radar in a potential closeout game in Houston.

Jimmy Butler has played well over the last couple of games and will need a big game if the Wolves want to pull off the upset in Game 5. He’s an interesting leverage play off of Paul George, but clearly a peg below if we aren’t factoring in ownership. Taj Gibson hasn’t been great in this series and his minutes continue to trend the wrong direction. The Wolves have been playing small lineups to match up against the Rockets, which has hurt Gibson’s minuted directly. Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled with the constant double teams from Houston. He has shown signs of life in the last two games though, and is sitting at a very playable $8,500 on DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

Tyus Jones (Questionable)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -7.3 (8 of 8)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose (FD GPP), Jamal Crawford (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (FD Cash), Jamal Crawford (Cash), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK Cash), Jeff Teague (GPP), Jimmy Butler (GPP)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets in five was the likely outcome before this series started and it looks like that is exactly what is going to come to fruition. They are double-digit favorites tonight at home and come into the game with the highest implied total (114.3 points) on the board. The only concern here is the potential blowout. If the Wolves get down big, both teams could end up playing their reserves for most of the second half. Predicting blowouts is tough, but it’s something to keep in mind tonight.

Chris Paul has really played well in the last three games and is still priced under $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With so much attention going to Russell Westbrook and Ricky Rubio, Paul makes a great pivot in tournaments. James Harden deserves consideration as one of the top overall plays, but I wouldn’t play him over LeBron James. Trevor Ariza is one of the best values at small forward. He should see minutes in the low-30s at a price below $5,000.

Eric Gordon has not shot the ball well in this series, but is returning home in a game where he could see a few extra minutes. At $4,800 on DraftKings, I’m willing to give Gordon another shot, especially in tournaments. I prefer him over the other bench players in Ryan Anderson and Gerald Green. Clint Capela has massive upside and he’s shown that throughout this series. While his price is a little high on FanDuel, he’s firmly in play on DraftKings ($7,300).

Notable Injuries

Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (1 of 8)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Trevor Ariza, Chris Paul (GPP), James Harden (GPP), Clint Capela (DK), Eric Gordon (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (Cash), James Harden (Cash), Clint Capela (FD), Eric Gordon (DK Cash)