NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 24th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.5 |  | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 112.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Dragan Bender | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 30 | DvP | 29 | 30 | 16 | 29 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 6 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns come into tonight’s game as 7.5-point underdogs, but this has plenty of shootout potential with the total set at 216.5 points. These two teams like to push the pace and they are both ranked below the league average in defensive efficiency. The Suns have an implied total of 104.5 points, which is close to their season average. The Suns’ point guards have been tough to trust this season and with eight other games on the schedule, it’s probably a situation to avoid. Of the two, I prefer Isaiah Canaan over Tyler Ulis, but there are better values available tonight.
Devin Booker has an elite true usage rate (28%) and comes into the game in good form, averaging 44 fantasy points in his last five outings. However, Victor Oladipo is one of the most underrated on-ball defenders in basketball. He has one of the best defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades of any shooting guard and as a whole, the Pacers have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. I’m more inclined to play T.J. Warren in a matchup against Bojan Bogdanovic, who has one of the worst DRPM grades of any small forward.
Dragan Bender had those two big outings when he first filled in for the injured Marquese Chriss, but he’s been awfully quiet in his last few games. Even though he will draw another start in a favorable matchup, he’s a deep tournament dart at best. After a big game from Greg Monroe, the Suns are going back to Tyson Chandler as their starting center. He has by far the best matchup of the five starters, as the Pacers are ranked 28th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against centers this season.
Notable Injuries
Marquese Chriss (Out)
Greg Monroe (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (11 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 17.6 | -0.1 | 23.8 | -0.3 | 0.74 | 17.3% | 6 | 12 | 15 |
| Devin Booker | $8,100 | $8,500 | $15,500 | 37.8 | 6.8 | 34.5 | 1.9 | 1.09 | 28.2% | 14 | 5 | 1 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,100 | $7,000 | $14,400 | 32.1 | 3.3 | 32.2 | 2.9 | 1.00 | 23.4% | 4 | 14 | 29 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,800 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 22.4 | 8.0 | 0.58 | 10.9% | 20 | 19 | 11 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.7 | -0.5 | 25.7 | -1.0 | 0.84 | 9.0% | 28 | 30 | 15 |
| Isaiah Canaan | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 20.4 | 0.7 | 22.3 | 2.2 | 0.92 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $4,200 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 22.9 | -4.9 | 21.4 | -4.7 | 1.07 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. Warren, Tyson Chandler
Secondary Plays – Devin Booker
Indiana Pacers
UPDATE: Darren Collison and Myles Turner are OUT for tonight’s game.
The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They should be able to add another win to their resume tonight, as they take on the struggling Suns at home. This is a great matchup for fantasy production, as Phoenix is ranked fourth in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Pacers have an implied total of 112 points, which is the third highest overall and six points above their season average.
Darren Collison is slightly overpriced on DraftKings ($6,100) and slightly underpriced on FanDuel ($5,400). He draws an elite matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 30th in efficiency against point guards. Collison may not have 35+ minute upside, but he still has 40+ fantasy point upside in this matchup. Victor Oladipo should fly under the radar tonight thanks to a hefty price tag. I’m willing to pay a premium for him in this matchup, especially in tournaments. Devin Booker is not concerned with his play on the defensive end of the floor, as evidenced by the fact that the Suns have allowed the most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Bojan Bogdanovic’s minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction, but at the very least, he deserves tournament consideration on FanDuel ($4,000). Cory Joseph is a sneaky value play on DraftKings ($3,900), as he could end up playing 26-28 minutes in an exploitable matchup. Joseph would also see any and all garbage time if the game gets out of hand. We need to take a wait and see approach with the Pacers’ frontcourt. Myles Turner is listed as questionable, but it sounds like he will come off the bench even if he is active. If Turner is eventually ruled out, Domantas Sabonis and Thaddeus Young would become borderline elite plays in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.2 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,400 | $6,100 | $12,800 | 26.9 | 0.6 | 30.1 | -0.7 | 0.90 | 18.5% | 30 | 29 | 26 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,900 | $9,200 | $17,000 | 41.9 | -3.7 | 34.1 | -1.3 | 1.23 | 27.5% | 20 | 30 | 28 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 19.9 | -1.4 | 30.5 | -4.0 | 0.65 | 16.2% | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,200 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 26.5 | 1.3 | 32.6 | 1.7 | 0.81 | 15.3% | 30 | 29 | 29 |
| Myles Turner | $6,600 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 1.04 | 18.2% | 12 | 13 | 6 | ||
| Lance Stephenson | $3,900 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 19.9 | -5.0 | 23.1 | -5.5 | 0.86 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,700 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 26.2 | 0.3 | 25.3 | 4.6 | 1.04 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $4,500 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.2 | 0.5 | 25.8 | 3.6 | 0.70 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP), Cory Joseph
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Bojan Bogdanovic (FD GPP)
TBD (Waiting on Injuries) – Domantas Sabonis, Thaddeus Young
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Zach LaVine | Justin Holiday | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 26 | 18 | 17 | 16 | DvP | 24 | 28 | 11 | 21 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 20 | 1 | 25 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 16 | 10 | 26 | 20 | |
Chicago Bulls
Before we get into the matchup, I want to note that the Bulls played in a double-overtime game against the Pelicans on Monday. When you are looking through game logs, keep that in mind, as you will see some huge fantasy performances from the Bulls’ players in that game. Tonight’s matchup against the Sixers is an exploitable one. Philadelphia is ranked second in pace of play and 20th in points allowed per game. The Bulls have an implied total of 107 points, which is three points above their season average.
With Kris Dunn out again, Jerian Grant will draw another start at point guard. On the season, he averages 0.88 FP/min and he filled in for Dunn nicely on Monday. The best part about Grant’s game is that he can rack up steals and blocks, which is rare for a point guard. There are a ton of options at his position, but I don’t mind going back to the well in tournaments. Zach LaVine may get his minute restriction increased on Friday, but will only play 24 minutes again tonight. This limits his ceiling, but he still grades out as a decent play on FanDuel ($5,100).
Justin Holiday will continue to play all of the minutes that he can handle. He has shown an incredibly high floor at his price point, which puts him into consideration for cash games almost every night. He’s not my favorite wing player in this game, but we’ll get to him in a minute. The Bulls’ frontcourt is a fairly easy fade tonight. Lauri Markkanen is overpriced, Robin Lopez has to deal with Joel Embiid, and we never quite know what to expect from Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis off the bench.
Notable Injuries
Kris Dunn (Out)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (10 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (5 of 18)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | $6,300 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 19.3 | 1.5 | 21.9 | 0.4 | 0.88 | 19.3% | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Zach LaVine | $5,100 | $5,300 | $11,400 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 20.3 | 0.0 | 1.09 | 28.0% | 24 | 26 | 20 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,600 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 26.6 | -1.6 | 34.3 | 0.5 | 0.78 | 16.6% | 10 | 18 | 1 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,700 | $6,700 | $13,300 | 29.1 | 4.5 | 30.3 | 0.9 | 0.96 | 19.7% | 13 | 17 | 25 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,200 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 23.6 | -1.2 | 28.5 | -0.6 | 0.83 | 18.1% | 7 | 16 | 2 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,500 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 29.8 | 0.8 | 24.7 | -1.0 | 1.21 | 23.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $3,900 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 22.8 | -3.1 | 20.3 | -3.1 | 1.12 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Denzel Valentine | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 22.3 | -0.7 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 0.78 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jerian Grant (GPP), Justin Holiday (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Jerian Grant (Cash), Justin Holiday (GPP), Zach LaVine (FD)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games and would squeeze into the playoffs as the eight seed if the regular season ended today. They will be short-handed tonight, as J.J. Redick, T.J. McConnell, and Jerryd Bayless have all been ruled out. This opens up minutes and usage in the offense. The icing on the cake is a matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
Ben Simmons is coming off of his worst five-game stretch of the season, averaging 31 minutes and 28 fantasy points. While the form is a small concern, I’m throwing it out the window tonight. With three of the Sixers’ guards ruled out, Simmons should play a minimum of 35 minutes. In my model, I’m going to project him in the 36-38 minute range. I’m expecting a big bounce-back outing from Simmons, as he takes on a Bulls’ team that is ranked 26th in efficiency against point guards.
With so many injuries, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Robert Covington should log as many minutes as they can handle tonight. I know they warned us, but I will be chasing waterfalls tonight (TLC). He offers great value in all formats. Covington is also an elite play and I don’t mind stacking the Sixers in both cash games and tournaments. Justin Anderson is minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and should also have a larger role off the bench tonight.
Dario Saric and Joel Embiid are both in favorable matchups. The Bulls are ranked 25th in efficiency against power forwards, 19th in efficiency against centers, and 20th in rebounding differential this season. The crazy part is that Saric and Embiid are my fourth and fifth favorite options from the Sixers. You can make a serious case for six different Sixers tonight and most of my lineups will be filled with different combinations.
Notable Injuries
J.J. Redick (Out)
T.J. McConnell (Out)
Jerryd Bayless (Out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.2 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (2 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,700 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 41.0 | -13.6 | 35.0 | -3.9 | 1.17 | 23.0% | 26 | 24 | 21 |
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | $4,200 | $3,900 | $8,800 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 16.0 | -0.1 | 0.64 | 16.0% | 28 | 28 | 16 |
| Robert Covington | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 28.7 | -6.5 | 32.4 | 1.4 | 0.89 | 15.4% | 25 | 11 | 10 |
| Dario Saric | $6,300 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 27.1 | 2.9 | 30.7 | 2.8 | 0.88 | 17.7% | 25 | 21 | 26 |
| Joel Embiid | $11,000 | $9,700 | $18,300 | 45.4 | -1.2 | 31.5 | 1.3 | 1.44 | 27.5% | 19 | 21 | 20 |
| Justin Anderson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 8.7 | -1.3 | 12.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Robert Covington, Dario Saric (FD), Joel Embiid (DK)
Secondary Plays – Dario Saric (DK), Joel Embiid (FD), Justin Anderson
New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 224.0 |  | Vegas Total | 224.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.0 | Implied Team Total | 113.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 3 | 29 | 15 | 7 | DvP | 18 | 25 | 23 | 28 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 5 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They make other teams play at their pace, which leads to a lot of points being scored. Unfortunately, they run into a very good defense tonight in the Hornets. On the season, Charlotte is ranked eighth in defensive efficiency and fifth in rebounding differential. I still like the chances of this game shooting out (224 point total), but I’m a bigger fan of the Hornets. The Pelicans’ implied total of 111 points is nearly identical to their season average.
Rajon Rondo will show up every few weeks and drop 50 fantasy points and then go back into hibernation. In a nine game slate, he’s an easy fade in all formats. Jrue Holiday’s minutes have been inflated by the number of overtime games the Pelicans have been involved in recently. We should expect 36-38 minutes tonight, rather than the 40-42 that he’s been playing. With a matchup against Nicolas Batum and/or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, I don’t have a ton of interest in Holiday. E’Twaun Moore’s FP/min have been trending in the wrong direction, but you wouldn’t realize that if you just looked at his recent fantasy points per game. Again, the overtimes have led to more minutes.
The only two Pelicans that I am considering tonight are Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Davis clearly draws the better matchup of the two, as he’ll square off against Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky, who both have negative DRPM grades. Meanwhile, Cousins will have to deal with Dwight Howard, who is still one of the best low-post defenders in basketball. I prefer Davis of the two, but both are still viable in tournaments. For cash games, I will be hitching my wagon to another superstar in this slate.
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 23.6 | -6.1 | 24.8 | -1.9 | 0.95 | 16.6% | 22 | 19 | 10 |
| Jrue Holiday | $7,800 | $7,500 | $13,800 | 35.4 | 8.6 | 37.0 | 3.7 | 0.96 | 20.5% | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.6 | 0.5 | 32.5 | 3.4 | 0.66 | 14.5% | 20 | 29 | 8 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,800 | $10,800 | $20,000 | 50.5 | 7.9 | 36.3 | 6.3 | 1.39 | 24.1% | 23 | 15 | 22 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $12,500 | $11,600 | $21,000 | 53.2 | 8.5 | 36.5 | 6.2 | 1.46 | 26.9% | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (Cash), DeMarcus Cousins
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets play better at home than they do on the road and they draw one of the best possible matchups. On the season, New Orleans is ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. It’s rare that we can say this, but the Hornets have the highest implied total (113 points) and the highest projected point differential (+7.2) of the slate. We should give a sizable boost to the Hornets’ offense as a whole.
Kemba Walker has an elite true usage rate (27%), he’s been in good form recently (38 fantasy points over his last five games), and he draws a favorable matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Pelicans. In theory, he should be a chalky play tonight. However, Walker’s ownership rarely gets as high as it should. I’m willing to pay a slight premium for him in this spot in both cash games and tournaments. I have not rostered Nicolas Batum often this season, but this is the spot to do it. The Pelicans are ranked dead last in efficiency against shooting guards and Batum is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last five games.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist grades out as a nice play on DraftKings ($4,200). Wing players against the Pelicans continue to have success on a consistent basis. I have no interest dealing with the roulette wheel that is the Hornets’ power forward situation, but I’m intrigued by Dwight Howard in this spot. He is averaging 49 fantasy points over his last five games and will likely play minutes in the mid to high 30s if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Notable Injuries
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Probable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 7.2 (1 of 18)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,400 | $8,000 | $15,500 | 37.1 | 0.8 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 1.07 | 26.8% | 18 | 18 | 28 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,000 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 24.9 | 3.7 | 31.3 | 0.9 | 0.79 | 17.9% | 30 | 25 | 4 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,200 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 21.6 | -0.2 | 26.5 | 1.7 | 0.82 | 15.8% | 16 | 23 | 29 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,600 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.4 | 1.4 | 25.9 | 1.1 | 0.75 | 12.6% | 26 | 28 | 2 |
| Dwight Howard | $9,200 | $8,200 | $14,800 | 36.6 | 12.0 | 30.5 | 2.9 | 1.20 | 19.2% | 22 | 8 | 5 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,500 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 19.3 | -0.5 | 23.1 | -2.5 | 0.84 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 25.6 | -2.2 | 25.6 | -4.6 | 1.00 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK)
Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.0 |  | Vegas Total | 200.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 10 | 28 | 10 | 11 | DvP | 21 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 23 | 11 | 24 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 2 | |
Utah Jazz
There are some great games to target in this slate, but I’ll be honest — this isn’t one of them. The Jazz and Pistons are two slow-paced teams that both own top ten defenses. While we can expect this game to stay close, the total of 200 points is an eyesore. The Jazz have the third lowest implied total (99 points) and the fourth worst projected point differential (-2.6) on the board.
If you want to fade this game as a whole, I certainly won’t talk you out of it. With that said, Rodney Hood’s absence does open up a few intriguing options in tournaments. Ish Smith is far from an elite defender and Ricky Rubio has flashed some upside recently. He only needs 25 fantasy points to reach 5x his salary, which he is certainly capable of. Donovan Mitchell draws a “difficult” matchup against Avery Bradley, but there is a decent chance that we have overrated him as a defender. Bradley has a negative DRPM in each of the last two seasons. Hood’s absence should also open up a few more minutes for Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles.
Notable Injuries
Rodney Hood (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 101.6 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (16 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $4,900 | $5,100 | $10,600 | 25.3 | -2.1 | 29.0 | -0.7 | 0.87 | 20.4% | 19 | 7 | 17 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,400 | $7,200 | $13,300 | 31.5 | 2.1 | 31.7 | 2.5 | 0.99 | 25.3% | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 23.0 | -2.4 | 30.5 | -2.3 | 0.75 | 14.4% | 22 | 28 | 11 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 26.8 | 1.3 | 28.2 | 1.1 | 0.95 | 16.6% | 16 | 10 | 24 |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,900 | $7,400 | $13,800 | 32.3 | 6.1 | 29.7 | -1.1 | 1.09 | 14.2% | 14 | 11 | 6 |
| Joe Johnson | $3,800 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 14.2 | -1.0 | 22.0 | 1.5 | 0.64 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have lost five games in a row and draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. With Rudy Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz are a top five defense in the NBA. The Pistons come into the game with an implied total of only 101 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate and 1.3 points below their season average. There will be some people that want to play the All-Star snub narrative with Andre Drummond, but I refuse to pay a premium for him in a matchup against Gobert. The Jazz are ranked first in efficiency against centers this season and Gobert had the highest DRPM of any player in basketball a year ago.
Notable Injuries
Reggie Bullock (Doubtful)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (13 of 18)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,500 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 20.9 | 8.7 | 22.7 | 8.2 | 0.92 | 23.7% | 15 | 21 | 10 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,200 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.4 | -0.8 | 31.6 | 1.3 | 0.74 | 21.5% | 16 | 1 | 18 |
| Stanley Johnson | $3,700 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 16.9 | -0.3 | 27.0 | -7.9 | 0.63 | 13.6% | 14 | 19 | 9 |
| Tobias Harris | $7,200 | $6,200 | $12,700 | 29.3 | 0.2 | 32.5 | -1.7 | 0.90 | 21.3% | 18 | 12 | 10 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,300 | $9,400 | $17,300 | 43.5 | 4.5 | 32.9 | 1.9 | 1.32 | 18.4% | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 16 | 30 | 22 | 27 | DvP | 6 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 17 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are currently tied with the Celtics for the fewest number of losses in the Eastern Conference. They have played well all season and draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks. On the season, Atlanta is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors come into the game with an implied total of 110.3 points, which honestly feels a bit low in this matchup.
Kyle Lowry is one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate. Much like Kemba Walker, I expect Lowry to get overlooked despite the favorable matchup. We’ve been streaming point guards against the Hawks for years and there is no reason to stop now, especially with this game being played in Atlanta. DeMar DeRozan has some tournament appeal on DraftKings ($8,300), but if I’m choosing between the two, it’s going to be Lowry. The rest of the Raptors are fairly easy fades. Even though bigs have had some success against the Hawks, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas have both been too inconsistent to trust.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (12 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,900 | $7,900 | $14,600 | 35.6 | 4.4 | 33.0 | 1.6 | 1.08 | 21.8% | 21 | 17 | 30 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,800 | $8,300 | $15,000 | 39.6 | -2.3 | 34.7 | 1.4 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 11 | 16 | 2 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 12.5 | 1.3 | 21.4 | -1.2 | 0.58 | 10.7% | 30 | 30 | 16 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,700 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 26.1 | -10.2 | 28.1 | -1.5 | 0.93 | 17.2% | 8 | 22 | 21 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 23.1 | -1.1 | 21.0 | 0.8 | 1.10 | 17.7% | 23 | 27 | 10 |
| Delon Wright | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 20.5 | 0.5 | 21.7 | 1.8 | 0.94 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 16.8 | -1.3 | 17.6 | 2.6 | 0.95 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (DK)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have won four of their last ten games, so if we compare that to their winning percentage on the season, we should consider them to be in good form. Unfortunately, they draw a tough matchup against the stifling defense of the Raptors, who are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hawks have an implied total of 104.3 points, which seems a bit high.
Dennis Schroder is priced at a discount on DraftKings ($6,800) tonight. Even with one of the worst individual matchups of the slate, he still grades out as a nice point-per-dollar target in my NBA model (which is featured daily in the Grind Down video update). Kent Bazemore draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Raptors are ranked 26th in efficiency against shooting guards this season. Bazemore has a volatile nature to his game, which makes him a perfect tournament play when his ownership is going to be low.
Notable Injuries
None
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (9 of 18)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,400 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 34.5 | 3.8 | 31.9 | -0.9 | 1.08 | 29.5% | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,700 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 28.0 | -3.0 | 28.3 | -0.4 | 0.99 | 19.6% | 26 | 11 | 24 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 24.8 | -10.7 | 30.7 | -4.1 | 0.81 | 16.6% | 5 | 12 | 4 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,000 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 22.7 | -3.8 | 25.9 | 0.5 | 0.88 | 16.5% | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 12.3 | -0.2 | 17.8 | -2.9 | 0.69 | 9.7% | 12 | 17 | 17 |